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Statistical Look at OSU Defense

While the numbers look great the schedule OSU has played hasn't included many top offenses. Just using total offense as a team statistic they have faced four teams in the top 50 of total offense (IN -8, OH - 38, WA - 39, and Rutgers - 42). They faced 5 teams in the 51st to 100 range (MI- 55, TX - 71, IL - 81, PSU - 84 and PUR - 100). They faced 3 teams 101 to 134 (UCLA - 117, MN - 127, and WI - 133).

By comparison, our schedule has faced much better teams in terms of total offense. We faced 5 teams in the top 50 (SFL - 3, FSU - 12, ND - 14, TX AM - 23 and SMU - 29). We faced 4 teams in the 51 to 100 range (NC ST - 63, PITT - 64, LOUISVILLE - 68, and VT -95). We played three teams in the 101 to 134 range (FL - 102, SYR - 104, and STANFORD - 124).

The average team total offense of their opponents was 74.58. Our average team total offense of our opponents was 58.41. So when you compare their defensive stats to our stats and you factor in the strength of the offenses each team played I think its basically a tie. We played much better offenses they that have played.
 
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This is a thorough and objective breakdown.

Some of you who are ****ed off by the level of objectivity will be the same ones saying “fire Dawson” if we score less than 10 points on Wednesday night. This is not “one of the best defenses in the ACC”, this is one of the best defenses in the history of the sport.

If we are above average against them, with 2 weeks to prepare for us, we score 3 FGs. If we are exceptional, we turn one of those FGs into a TD.

Scoring 20 will require an entire-season’s level of mistakes and exploitations, all in one single game. It’s not impossible, but you might as well think it is. We gain nothing by making the same mistake they are, assuming the opponent is overrated.
 
SJMPARMAN said:
While the numbers look great the schedule OSU has played hasn't included many top offenses. Just using total offense as a team statistic they have faced four teams in the top 50 of total offense (IN -8, OH - 38, WA - 39, and Rutgers - 42). They faced 5 teams in the 51st to 100 range (MI- 55, TX - 71, IL - 81, PSU - 84 and PUR - 100). They faced 3 teams 101 to 134 (UCLA - 117, MN - 127, and WI - 133).

By comparison, our schedule has faced much better teams in terms of total offense. We faced 5 teams in the top 50 (SFL - 3, FSU - 12, ND - 14, TX AM - 23 and SMU - 29). We faced 4 teams in the 51 to 100 range (NC ST - 63, PITT - 64, LOUISVILLE - 68, and VT -95). We played three teams in the 101 to 134 range (FL - 102, SYR - 104, and STANFORD - 124).

The average team total offense of their opponents was 74.58. Our average team total offense of our opponents was 58.41. So when you compare their defensive stats to our stats and you factor in the strength of the offenses each team played I think its basically a tie. We played much better offenses they that have played.
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Good post, and this is something I've been thinking about as well. I hadn't had the time to lay it out, but I did something very similar leading up to Texas A&M. Now, if we're being real, we didn't do very much on offense against A&M. If you want to attribute that to wind or noise, neither of which will be a factor on Wednesday, so be it. But I thought we could have success on offense because I listed all the QBs that A&M faced, and it was a "who's who" of losers. So I thought their defense was a little overrated. Do with that as you may after watching how we played against them, but we won.

Moving onto this week, I see your point here, and in no way am I going to try to say that they've played some incredible array of offenses. They most certainly have not. But the numbers they've compiled against those suspect offenses are literally historic. Generational, in some aspects. So I think the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle. Is this really the best defense of the past ~10 or so years? I don't know, talk to me in 5 years when their kids are in the NFL and we see how they're doing. What I do know is it's unquestionably the best defense we've seen this year. By a wide margin. But have they seen an offense quite like ours? I'd argue 13-0 Indiana with the Heisman winner is better, and the numbers would back me up. But can we not play 60 minutes that's better than the 60 they put out there? I think we can. I love our OL. I love Beck's accuracy. I love our pass pro. I like how Fletcher should be able to muscle some yards on these dudes. I love how much film we've put out on Toney and how much attention he's going to draw, now can we counter off that and get some other kids involved?

But make no mistake, OSU has played better QBs than A&M did. Mendoza being one, Desmond Williams is a good player (9th nationally in passer rating), Luke Altmyer is a good player (19th nationally in passer rating), Arch has his struggles but definitely has talent, Underwood has his struggles but has talent. If I'm putting my optimist hat on, I'm hanging onto the fact that this is one of the 2 best collections of offensive talent they've seen, especially on the OL, and if you have a very good offensive line (which we do), you should have opportunities to score points. We just need to take advantage of those. When it's 3rd and 4 on their 45 yard line, that might be a 3 point play right there. A first-down gets you into field goal range, a sack or 0 yard play maybe has you punting. We will have chances like that, when they're there, we have to take them. Because they are going to force some 3 and outs on us, no doubt about it. But when we get a couple first downs on a drive, can we score, and most importantly, can we get more than 1-2 plays of 20+ yards?
 
ST26 said:
We just did it against ANM. We did it against Florida and even ND. Again, if we wan to to beat OSU, we need to play bully ball. This should be a low scoring, sloppy and sluggish game. Patricia is going to want us to beat them in the passing game, and it's falling right into their trap. They'll bring very unique coverages and get Beck to panic and force the ball. If we go out there guns a blazing looking for the big plays in the passing game, we'll turn the ball over and the game could get bad. We can't make this game a track meet. We need to win this game ugly. Mario Ball is the key to victory
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A&M is not a physical team. Going into that game we all knew we were significantly more physical on both sides of the ball
 
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IndayArtHauz said:
This is a thorough and objective breakdown.

Some of you who are ****ed off by the level of objectivity will be the same ones saying “fire Dawson” if we score less than 10 points on Wednesday night. This is not “one of the best defenses in the ACC”, this is one of the best defenses in the history of the sport.

If we are above average against them, with 2 weeks to prepare for us, we score 3 FGs. If we are exceptional, we turn one of those FGs into a TD.

Scoring 20 will require an entire-season’s level of mistakes and exploitations, all in one single game. It’s not impossible, but you might as well think it is. We gain nothing by making the same mistake they are, assuming the opponent is overrated.
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If Dawson can’t score more than 10pts, he should be fired. Time for an upgrade.
 
SJMPARMAN said:
While the numbers look great the schedule OSU has played hasn't included many top offenses. Just using total offense as a team statistic they have faced four teams in the top 50 of total offense (IN -8, OH - 38, WA - 39, and Rutgers - 42). They faced 5 teams in the 51st to 100 range (MI- 55, TX - 71, IL - 81, PSU - 84 and PUR - 100). They faced 3 teams 101 to 134 (UCLA - 117, MN - 127, and WI - 133).

By comparison, our schedule has faced much better teams in terms of total offense. We faced 5 teams in the top 50 (SFL - 3, FSU - 12, ND - 14, TX AM - 23 and SMU - 29). We faced 4 teams in the 51 to 100 range (NC ST - 63, PITT - 64, LOUISVILLE - 68, and VT -95). We played three teams in the 101 to 134 range (FL - 102, SYR - 104, and STANFORD - 124).

The average team total offense of their opponents was 74.58. Our average team total offense of our opponents was 58.41. So when you compare their defensive stats to our stats and you factor in the strength of the offenses each team played I think its basically a tie. We played much better offenses they that have played.
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The points against differential vs FBS is 5 points (13.8 Miami/8.8 OSU)
The points against differential, when you take into account what each team's opponents average points per game vs FBS, is down to OSU giving up 2.5 points less than Miami.
 
SJMPARMAN said:
While the numbers look great the schedule OSU has played hasn't included many top offenses. Just using total offense as a team statistic they have faced four teams in the top 50 of total offense (IN -8, OH - 38, WA - 39, and Rutgers - 42). They faced 5 teams in the 51st to 100 range (MI- 55, TX - 71, IL - 81, PSU - 84 and PUR - 100). They faced 3 teams 101 to 134 (UCLA - 117, MN - 127, and WI - 133).

By comparison, our schedule has faced much better teams in terms of total offense. We faced 5 teams in the top 50 (SFL - 3, FSU - 12, ND - 14, TX AM - 23 and SMU - 29). We faced 4 teams in the 51 to 100 range (NC ST - 63, PITT - 64, LOUISVILLE - 68, and VT -95). We played three teams in the 101 to 134 range (FL - 102, SYR - 104, and STANFORD - 124).

The average team total offense of their opponents was 74.58. Our average team total offense of our opponents was 58.41. So when you compare their defensive stats to our stats and you factor in the strength of the offenses each team played I think its basically a tie. We played much better offenses they that have played.
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Fair point, but OSU's defense is still #1 in FEI, SP+, and F+ (FEI & SP+) which are all opponent adjusted. We are #6, 8, and 5 respectively, so there isn't a huge difference, but there is a difference.

FWIW, our offense is #22 in FEI & SP+ & #18 in F+. Indiana and Washington are higher ranked offenses in all, and Illinois is just above or below depending on the metric. So, they've played higher ranked offenses than us and have still played great defense.

We have a huge challenge ahead of us. Everyone in the offensive shop has to be elite in preparation and performance.
 
Xio said:
This I understand they're statistically great but they just haven't played anyone.
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Ohio State played (3) teams with top 50 scoring offenses, they won 2 of those games. Miami played at least (8) teams with top 50 scoring offenses and won all of them.
 
252cane said:
Offense has struggled vs decent defenses. This is by far the best defense they have seen. Louisville is the highest ranked defense they played this year and they are 17th and you see how that went
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Yea we were doing fine if we didn’t throw 4 interceptions.
 
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TOcane said:
You know better, you don’t think throwing 4 interceptions affects everything?
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It impacts plenty. But we still snapped the ball 55 other times on plays we didn’t throw a pick and didn’t do much of anything. What do interceptions have to do with running the ball like ***? It was a terrible offensive performance from start to finish. If we block and execute like that on Wednesday night we’re gonna get shut out. Thankfully I don’t think that will happen. It’s time for our best game on offense.
 
Yall can analyze all the stats you want. If we cannot run the ball, we wont have much success. Our offense is not built to line up and throw play after play. Its built to run the ball v talent like this. No fancy scheme just big v big. Thats what am counting on. Not pre game stats.
 
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supacane said:
Their defense is good, its overrated. I cant think of a single impressive offensive team they played against. The one part of their defense i dont think is overrated is their pass defense. And that stems from them basically using bear fronts to cover up all the blockers bottling the run game then keeping everything in front of them on 3rd downs. Our way to win this game is to run the ball, over and over again. Right up the middle. Thats where they are supposed to be strong. I have much faith in us running it there. Its what we have done in all the big games we played, except FSU if u call it that. We ran for 180 v UF, 175 v A&M and 134 v ND. Those are the 3 most talented fronts we played. If we are forced to throw the ball, i dont see us moving it alot. I think we eek out 16-10. And yes they are not great at rushing the passer. They had 5 sacks v Indiana, Texas and Michigan. We had 14 in our 3 big games talent v talent.

This game and time of the season is where you need Mario bro style offense.
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I literally think opposite, against tamu agreed.. We need Beck to earn his money..

88 said:
When I get too deep into the stats it feels more futile than it probably is.

Actually feel better every time i actually throw a game on, mostly in terms of being able to run the ball against OSU.



Before you ask me how the heck i feel better watching OSU hold Michigan to 163 yards -- The second half was a snowy slosh where Ohio State teed off on the run game -- or i've reached a state of desperate delerium grasping for any crease of positivy vs Ohio State defense. Both possible

Michigan was **** against the run and allowed two big passes. One of them being a horrible call leaving Smith basically on an island and another to Tate with Sayin chilling in the pocket like a 7x7 tournement. (I trust we don't let either happen)

But other than that Michigan was able to run the ball for 100+ in the first half and there was missed opportunies by the young QB all over the field. Kid was just panicking without crazy pass rush and checked down too much.

If Beck is on, we'll be able to run the ball more than people think, as long as we show variety with the run scheme.

Defensively, you stop the run, pressure Sayin and don't leave Smith on an island (I think we succeed at all three) and I think we have a chance to embarrass this Ohio State offense, as long as our offense isnt putting our D into horrible positions all night. Shoot me
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Everytime I watch these tougher games (Texas, Mich, Indy) I see a strong front 7 but a team that can be thrown on by a good QB.. Runs on the left side of oline seem to be possible also.. Gap style pulling runs and a good QB passing game to me would gash them..

The numbers show an unbelievable defense, one of best in decade and they do have GREAT LB play and in box they are very good but I think we should be able to pass block on them (as long as they arent blitzing crazy) and have decent success passing the ball..
 
Ohio St didn't play anyone that can score outside of Indiana in the BIG championship game and I guess Washington in the regular season. Washington's PPG is heavily skuded avg over 50pt in their non conference slate. This will be a battle nontheless
 
We have the trenches to compete, coaches need to bring it and skill players need to step up, It’s that simple. If any of y’all think we r just gonna lineup and maul them to victory, you have lost yo **** mind.
 
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