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Realistic season predictions and expectations. Warning: reasonable post

Let me phrase it another way for those who think a minimum 1 loss expectation is somehow crazy.

We did that with a worse offense in 2017 just because the offense played average enough of the time. The single loss came from when it finally **** the bed thanks to its downward trajectory over the season.

Our defense in 2018 was even better. If it takes a step back even to the 2017 level simply because of the depth issues, a new even average offense can wipe the floor with this easy schedule.

Given the fact that we are guranteed to have a much better offense overall, and hopefully one that actually improves over the season instead of deteriorating...

1 loss to a hard team to the gates or a tough road game, and hopefully not just a pathetic implosion like pitt, doesn't seem at all a crazy standard to hold our new coach to.
 
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Katzenboyer said:
Think you're underestimating the lack of quality depth on the offensive line. Expectation that 11+ wins being an "abject" failure is just completely unrealistic.

The team has talent, but the ACC won't be as garbage as it was last year (I expect UNC, UVA, Ga. Tech and Louisville to all be better), but Manny has been tasked with a complete cultural change PLUS some glaring holes on the roster. Even if the schedule is not the toughest, this isn't as easy as you're making it out to be.
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Comical post is comical.

Our division is dog****. Our division has been dog****. Our division has done nothing to improve its dog**** status.

I love how you say all of those teams will be better "just cus".

Furthermore your notion of a "complete culture change" is flat out wrong. You think the defense needs that? As if their psychological makeup wasn't the total opposite of the offenses? You really think that top 5 defense was not actually BETTER than those stats indicate given how utterly horrendous the offense was?

You're the typical Miami fan who just loves coming up with reasons why Miami should stay sucking and not set a standard..

Anyone saying this schedule is tough should post way way less.

Anything less than 11-1 is a FAILURE.

UF is above average.

FSU is a rivalry game but Taggart is running a good ship right? That guy might be fired by the time we play FSU.

Everyone else we have no business losing to. NONE.
 
Hegemon said:
Comical post is comical.

Our division is dog****. Our division has been dog****. Our division has done nothing to improve its dog**** status.

I love how you say all of those teams will be better "just cus".

Furthermore your notion of a "complete culture change" is flat out wrong. You think the defense needs that? As if their psychological makeup wasn't the total opposite of the offenses? You really think that top 5 defense was not actually BETTER than those stats indicate given how utterly horrendous the offense was?

You're the typical Miami fan who just loves coming up with reasons why Miami should stay sucking and not set a standard..

Anyone saying this schedule is tough should post way way less.

Anything less than 11-1 is a FAILURE.

UF is above average.

FSU is a rivalry game but Taggart is running a good ship right? That guy might be fired by the time we play FSU.

Everyone else we have no business losing to. NONE.
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Take it easy, pal. It's a god**** message board, if you don't like someone disagreeing with you, go to the Twitter echo chamber.

Here are the P5 teams who went 11-1 or better during their regular seasons last year: Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, UGA, Oklahoma, and OSU. If you think we're ready to be on that level, you're kidding yourself.

Do I want 11-1 to happen? Of course I do. But if this team goes 10-3 this year, I'm not calling it an "abject failure." That's nonsense, and any one who says otherwise is ignorant.
 
Hard to know how we'll look on 8/24 but going to assume that we'll lose.

After that you have some winnable games. However, with as much uncertainty as we have at nearly all positions I'm going with 9-3.

And don't ask me which games we'll lose. If we've learned anything since 2004 it's that few wins are guaranteed in the ACC on a given Saturday.
 
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Katzenboyer said:
Take it easy, pal. It's a god**** message board, if you don't like someone disagreeing with you, go to the Twitter echo chamber.

Here are the P5 teams who went 11-1 or better during their regular seasons last year: Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, UGA, Oklahoma, and OSU. If you think we're ready to be on that level, you're kidding yourself.

Do I want 11-1 to happen? Of course I do. But if this team goes 10-3 this year, I'm not calling it an "abject failure." That's nonsense, and any one who says otherwise is ignorant.
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Yet you cannot point out on our crap tastic schedule who we "should" lose too.

Thanks for making my point for me.

We lose to anyone but UF and FSU (that is such a push given the disaster unfolding) and it is a failure.

Point blank period.

Anyone saying otherwise is ignorant beyond words.
 
Hegemon said:
Yet you cannot point out on our crap tastic schedule who we "should" lose too.

Thanks for making my point for me.

We lose to anyone but UF and FSU (that is such a push given the disaster unfolding) and it is a failure.

Point blank period.

Anyone saying otherwise is ignorant beyond words.
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Would you have penciled UVA, BC, Duke or Georgia Tech as losses to start last year? How about Pitt the year before?

You don't get to close your eyes and wish a team to 11-1 because you think the schedule is weak. Until I see otherwise, this team has shown that it can 1) beat any team in the ACC not named Clemson, and 2) drop very winnable games that leave you scratching your head.

Florida will be a tough game. @ Pitt and @ Duke, later in the season -- when it's cold -- are traditionally games the Canes struggle in. FSU is never easy (even last year, we needed a comeback in the second half against a trash Seminole team), and I expect GT and Louisville to be better simply because of new coaching staffs.

Do I think they'll go 7-6? No. Like I said earlier, 10-3 is my prediction. It's not your confidence that's the problem; I love that you think the team is equipped to go 11-1. It's the "abject failure" part. Before 2017, this team hadn't had a double-digit win season since 2003. We're long past the days when Miami could just walk through their Big East schedule and coast to a 10-win season.
 
Katzenboyer said:
Would you have penciled UVA, BC, Duke or Georgia Tech as losses to start last year? How about Pitt the year before?

You don't get to close your eyes and wish a team to 11-1 because you think the schedule is weak. Until I see otherwise, this team has shown that it can 1) beat any team in the ACC not named Clemson, and 2) drop very winnable games that leave you scratching your head.

Florida will be a tough game. @ Pitt and @ Duke, later in the season -- when it's cold -- are traditionally games the Canes struggle in. FSU is never easy (even last year, we needed a comeback in the second half against a trash Seminole team), and I expect GT and Louisville to be better simply because of new coaching staffs.

Do I think they'll go 7-6? No. Like I said earlier, 10-3 is my prediction. It's not your confidence that's the problem; I love that you think the team is equipped to go 11-1. It's the "abject failure" part. Before 2017, this team hadn't had a double-digit win season since 2003. We're long past the days when Miami could just walk through their Big East schedule and coast to a 10-win season.
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We struggle with Duke and Pitt when Dnofrio and Richt are coaching our units. LOL @ struggling against teams we've lost to what? Twice in the last 10 years?

STOP

Please just stop the nonsense

I "don't think" the schedule is weak. I KNOW the schedule is weak. Every one of those teams finished with 5 or more losses last year except UF.

Let me repeat it for you.

Every one of those teams finished with 5 or more losses last year except UF.

Our 104th ranked offense caused every single one of those losses. Stop making excuses for losing games to trash teams. Please just stop. We score a measly 28 points a game last year and we go 11-1.

8/24 - UF (Best opponent on schedule)
8/31 - BYE
9/7 - @UNC (Trash and we have a Bye Week)
9/14 - BCC (really?)
9/21 - CMU (really?)
9/28 - BYE
10/5 - VT (Home game after a bye and their entire team entered the portal last year)
10/11 - UVA (Home game and no this is not a coin flip)
10/19 - GT (zero talent and a totally new scheme without the players to run it)
10/26 - @Pitt (it is october not November 30th and they are PITTSBURGH)
11/2 - @FSU (taggart may not be coaching and they are one or two injuries away from walk ons playing QB and RB only coin flip because rivalry game)
11/9 - L’VILLE (trash)
11/16 - BYE
11/23 - @FIU (Home Game)
11/30 - @Duke (IT IS ******* DUKE)

Outside of UF yes losing to any of those teams is an indictment of Manny and his staff. The best part of all of this is Manny knows this. He knows he needs to win now. Why do you think he hit the portal so hard instead of taking the "it is my first year" approach excuse?

I'm glad the head coaches expectations are in line with my own and not excuse makers on the message board.
 
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Hegemon said:
We struggle with Duke and Pitt when Dnofrio and Richt are coaching our units. LOL @ struggling against teams we've lost to what? Twice in the last 10 years?

STOP

Please just stop the nonsense

I "don't think" the schedule is weak. I KNOW the schedule is weak. Every one of those teams finished with 5 or more losses last year except UF.

Let me repeat it for you.

Every one of those teams finished with 5 or more losses last year except UF.

Our 104th ranked offense caused every single one of those losses. Stop making excuses for losing games to trash teams. Please just stop. We score a measly 28 points a game last year and we go 11-1.

8/24 - UF (Best opponent on schedule)
8/31 - BYE
9/7 - @UNC (Trash and we have a Bye Week)
9/14 - BCC (really?)
9/21 - CMU (really?)
9/28 - BYE
10/5 - VT (Home game after a bye and their entire team entered the portal last year)
10/11 - UVA (Home game and no this is not a coin flip)
10/19 - GT (zero talent and a totally new scheme without the players to run it)
10/26 - @Pitt (it is october not November 30th and they are PITTSBURGH)
11/2 - @FSU (taggart may not be coaching and they are one or two injuries away from walk ons playing QB and RB only coin flip because rivalry game)
11/9 - L’VILLE (trash)
11/16 - BYE
11/23 - @FIU (Home Game)
11/30 - @Duke (IT IS ******* DUKE)

Outside of UF yes losing to any of those teams is an indictment of Manny and his staff. The best part of all of this is Manny knows this. He knows he needs to win now. Why do you think he hit the portal so hard instead of taking the "it is my first year" approach excuse?

I'm glad the head coaches expectations are in line with my own and not excuse makers on the message board.
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Simple question: if Manny goes 10-3, do you fire him?
 
Anyone seriously believing that we will got 11-1 or even 10-2 is overdosing in kook-aid.

Our offensive staff is weak other than enos. Our OL is still bad, and we will most likely be breaking in a new QB.

Hope I’m wrong
 
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the Best team will face all year is UF.

Every team has big question marks including us beside UVA, PITT, and DUKE.

GT has an entire new staff and has to reprogram the way they play ball. Option to spread.

UNC is breaking in a whole new staff and Searls is the OL coach. But I’m willing to bet they have decent offensive line players returning.

VT is coming into the season with a max exodus of players and talent.

FSU will hav an entire new philosophy offensively. Jumbo recruits are dwindling and there is going to be tremendous heat on Willy this year. He’s most likely gone after a mediocre year

UL has an entire new staff and offensive/ defensive philosophy.

Things of note: this will be the first time in what 15 years we don’t have to prepare for the option.

Also historically we have a hard time beating both VT and UVA in the season.

I’d set the O/u at 8
 
davion_mori said:
Anyone seriously believing that we will got 11-1 or even 10-2 is overdosing in kook-aid.

Our offensive staff is weak other than enos. Our OL is still bad, and we will most likely be breaking in a new QB.

Hope I’m wrong
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Well you're basing your opinion on your opinion and not relevant facts.

We I can say is our new offensive staff cannot possibly be worse than 104th in offense. If it is Diaz is out of here in 2 years.
 
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rokulika said:
7-5 average record the last 10 seasons but undefeated in 2019 isn't unrealistic.

Warning: mods ban this guy
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Undefeated in 2019 isn’t unrealistic... We were 1 game away from being undefeated in 2017 and lost the last one. Our schedule is trash to be quite honest and outside of UF we don’t play anyone who we shouldn’t beat decisively. Of course we have our annual meeting with FSPoo but we should even handle them this year after beating them last year in a comeback victory running only 5 plays. Undefeated is not unrealistic and not because we’re that good right now but our schedule is that weak tbh. Let me add I am referring to our regular season schedule
 
305_separatist said:
In any competitive sport, you lose *far* more often than you're beaten. What I mean by that is by just focusing on not making stupid mistakes instead of trying to get clever and outsmart your opponent, you'll go a long way. Most of your opponents will defeat themselves.
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If they merely limit the stupid mistakes as you say, they win the Coastal. Not making boatloads of dumb mistakes is enough to consistently beat most of the mediocre ACC teams. Get some half-decent QB play, and many of those games would probably be somewhat stress-free.
 
ItsAUThing.com said:
The goal every year is to win the Coastal and to get a crack at the ACC Championship. In 15 tries the Canes have only won the division once and have never earned an ACC title. While beating Florida would be a great start to the season, a win against an out-of-conference opponent and hated rival really means nothing in the grand scheme of what college football has become.

Bragging rites and recruiting—at day's end, no one will remember a late August game the way they will a December conference title game and a shot at Clemson. Win or lose, UM needs to win the division and play that first Saturday in December—with a solid season in the rearview year one under Diaz.

Reaching the ACC title game will hold more credibility with recruits (re: the state of the program and its future) than beating the Gator in August.
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Exactly - the game just isn't that important. Unfortunately, if we lose, the fan base is going to take a deep dive into severe negativity the way it did after LSU last year. It's always bad after a loss but that was one of the worst, most overblown fan reactions to what ultimately could have been a somewhat meaningless game I've ever seen. Conversely, if we win, the fan base is going to start talking undefeated and playoffs. It's not going to be warranted either way, IMO.
 
Hegemon said:
What is that?

Losses to UF, FSU and Clemson? I know what you are doing but it is hilarious you cannot respond to my post without doing so.
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I've responded to your posts. I've said that 11-1 is unrealistic, you just keep yammering on about why you don't think it is. That's fine, you're entitled to that opinion.

But you're the guy who has used the term "abject failure" for anything that isn't 11-1. So, simple question: if the team finishes 10-3 (either 9-3 during the season with a bowl win, or 10-2 during the regular season with a bowl loss), do you fire Diaz?

Not a difficult concept. What's your answer?
 
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