Proof of Randomness in College Baseball

[Tiny Dancer]

I tried to post this before but it got blocked by the gestapo filter.

Jagr started a thread to claim that Florida State and Texas A&M getting to Omaha somehow meant that college baseball wasn't random.

He said this about a team (Florida State) that finished 8th in their conference, was outside of a host spot going into the final weekend and had the national seed in their bracket lose to 3-seed Sam Houston State.

That's your idea of chalk?

He also said this about a team (Texas A&M) that was one of the last in the field and had the national seed in their bracket lose to 4-seed Davidson.

That's your idea of chalk?

So 25% of Jagr's "chalk" Omaha field (really it's just a bunch of schools with "names" that he's heard of) were basically luck.

And this is the kind of evidence he advances in the face of year after year of complete flukes and one-offs getting to Omaha and winning the national championship.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

65% of the games won in Omaha over the past decade have been won by 10 teams. And in a shocking turn of events, the four winner's bracket teams were LSU, Oregon State, Florida, and Louisville. Four programs that got there and won a game through sheer luck. Didn't see any of that coming.

College baseball post-season is random, but Jim Morris is a helluva post-season coach. Love that argument.

 

[Tiny Dancer]

College baseball post-season is random, but Jim Morris is a helluva post-season coach. Love that argument.

This has all been explained before but you're not very bright so you keep getting the same things wrong over and over again.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

College baseball post-season is random, but Jim Morris is a helluva post-season coach. Love that argument.

This has all been explained before but you're not very bright so you keep getting the same things wrong over and over again.

No, I enjoy crushing your argument.

Jim Morris wins in the post-season: "he is a great post-season manager."
Jim Morris loses in the post-season: "college baseball is so random."

A question that lingers from last year.....why has "randomness" attacked Jim Morris for the past nine years, but not once, again, NOT ONCE, has Jim Morris found a way to beat an equal or better seed? Why doesn't randomness EVER work the other way? Ever?

Why couldn't Jim Morris win a single game in Gainesville in any of those regionals or Super Regional?
Your answer: "because Florida was the better team, they were supposed to win".

Okay, then why do we have so many losses against lower seeds in the past nine years?
Your answer: "because baseball is random, those losses are going to happen."

And somehow this all makes sense to you.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

If you won a game in Omaha in the past decade, there is a 75% chance your name was:

South Carolina, Virginia, Vanderbilt, Arizona, TCU, UCLA, LSU, Florida, North Carolina, Texas, Florida State, Arkansas, Oregon State.

5 SEC, 3 ACC, 3 P12, 2 B12.

In other words, just a crazy random group that no one saw ever winning a game in the CWS.

While Miami has two wins in that time period (147 games), both coming in the loser's bracket. Because random. And tuition.

 

[ucaned]

If you won a game in Omaha in the past decade, there is a 75% chance your name was:

South Carolina, Virginia, Vanderbilt, Arizona, TCU, UCLA, LSU, Florida, North Carolina, Texas, Florida State, Arkansas, Oregon State.

5 SEC, 3 ACC, 3 P12, 2 B12.

In other words, just a crazy random group that no one saw ever winning a game in the CWS.

While Miami has two wins in that time period (147 games), both coming in the loser's bracket. Because random. And tuition.

Yet Morris gets his swan song because he is trending up. Even through probation when we lost scholarships we at least made the regionals. Unless he can pull off the miracle of miracles and win it all next year, it is time lost from letting a new coach put his mark on the program.

Was at least hoping UF and FSU would go 2 and Q, but that didn't happen, and that just shows the gap between them and us. UF is in the drivers seat in their bracket and FSU has a tough road ahead, but there is still a chance of our worst nightmare a UF/FSU championship.

The more excuses for Morris, and for the program to be allowed to fail, the more accepting it will become long term. This is UM and nothing but excellence should be expected, and accepted.

 

[Tiny Dancer]

No, I enjoy crushing your argument.

You must have had very little enjoyment on this board then.

For as much as you post, you do very little crushing of anything except logic and understanding of simple concepts.

 

[Tiny Dancer]

Jim Morris wins in the post-season: "he is a great post-season manager."
Jim Morris loses in the post-season: "college baseball is so random"

You lie again.

I've said he's a great post-season manager even after he lost. I've also said baseball is random after he won.

You have a very loose association with the truth.

 

[Tiny Dancer]

A question that lingers from last year.....why has "randomness" attacked Jim Morris for the past nine years, but not once, again, NOT ONCE, has Jim Morris found a way to beat an equal or better seed? Why doesn't randomness EVER work the other way? Ever?

Because 9 games (or whatever the number is) over 9 years is a small sample size. You once again struggle with the most basic concepts. It's embarrassing to witness. I can't imagine what it must feel like to be that stupid.

You also fail consistently to understand the difference between could and did.

The 2011 team was inferior to Florida but was tied 4-4 in extra innings in Gainesville in the winner's bracket game. It's not that they couldn't beat a higher seed, they just didn't. The 2013 team was inferior to Louisville but was tied 1-1 in the 8th in Louisville in the winner's bracket game. It's not that they couldn't beat a higher seed, they just didn't.

Better teams are better for a reason. Better teams host for a reason. Those advantages matter.

The fact that Davidson pulls a rabbit out of it's *** in one weekend has nothing to do with us or anything else for that matter.

It's really stupid to keep making these ignorant claims.

 

[Tiny Dancer]

Why couldn't Jim Morris win a single game in Gainesville in any of those regionals or Super Regional?
Your answer: "because Florida was the better team, they were supposed to win".

I don't have an existential crisis when we lose on the road to the higher seeded team. That's supposed to happen.

The fact that we haven't pulled an upset is frustrating because we've been very close (2011 and 2013 examples given) but it shouldn't make you surrender all rationality and become an insufferable and clueless hack.

 

[Tiny Dancer]

Okay, then why do we have so many losses against lower seeds in the past nine years?
Your answer: "because baseball is random, those losses are going to happen."

My answer is that I don't care about losses to lower seeded teams when we advance to the next round or make it to Omaha.

You're once again obsessing about things that don't matter at all.

A team can win the national championship and never beat a higher or equal seed. Just like a team can lose to lower seeds and still win the national championship.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

In other words, there's no explanation for why randomness has attacked Jim Morris for nine years, but he has never been the beneficiary of said bizarre luck. No need to reply four times to say that.

And using Davidson proves my point. I'm talking about nine years, not one fluke weekend. Nine years. But somehow that is a "small sample size".

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

Okay, then why do we have so many losses against lower seeds in the past nine years?
Your answer: "because baseball is random, those losses are going to happen."

My answer is that I don't care about losses to lower seeded teams when we advance to the next round or make it to Omaha.

So you DO care about those losses when they prevent us from moving on? Are you finally admitting that it happens to the great Jim Morris?

 

[Tiny Dancer]

If you won a game in Omaha in the past decade, there is a 75% chance your name was:

South Carolina, Virginia, Vanderbilt, Arizona, TCU, UCLA, LSU, Florida, North Carolina, Texas, Florida State, Arkansas, Oregon State.

Completely out of context, this means absolutely nothing.

South Carolina failed to reach Omaha in the 6 years prior to 2010. Then they won a bunch of games from 2010-12. Since then they've never even sniffed another appearance.

The Virginia team that won the most games was probably their worst ever to reach Omaha.

Arizona is my favorite example. They didn't win a CWS game for 26 years before winning the national championship in 2012. Then they MISSED THE POSTSEASON in 2013, 2014 and 2015. Then they won 5 games last year.

Oh and they had almost a carbon copy of their 2016 season this year and lost in the regional.

No rhyme or reason to any of it.

And you wouldn't have been able to pick the national championship at any time in the last 10+ years even if you had 2-3 shots.

But it's all so predictable.

Says the guy who claimed that Texas A&M was "chalk" this year.

 

[Tiny Dancer]

In other words, just a crazy random group that no one saw ever winning a game in the CWS.

It was unless you eschew context and just look at program "names" instead of actual reality.

But this is par for the course for you.

Pretending like 2015 Virginia was predictable because they're named Virginia. Pretending like Arizona has been any good for the last 30 years just because they're named Arizona.

And so on.

 

[Tiny Dancer]

While Miami has two wins in that time period (147 games), both coming in the loser's bracket. Because random. And tuition.

If you think two good teams playing a baseball game at a neutral site is so predictable then how come you haven't become rich betting on those predictable outcomes?

How come you couldn't pick a single national champion in a decade?

Us rational human beings know the answers to those questions.

 

[Tiny Dancer]

In other words, there's no explanation for why randomness has attacked Jim Morris for nine years, but he has never been the beneficiary of said bizarre luck. No need to reply four times to say that.

That's actually a defining characteristic of randomness. There's no explanation.

Somehow you haven't learned a single thing about randomness in the many years that you've been arguing about it.

 

[Tiny Dancer]

And using Davidson proves my point. I'm talking about nine years, not one fluke weekend. Nine years. But somehow that is a "small sample size".

A Davidson happens every year. And you cite it every year. And you look silly doing it every year.

In 2015 you (or one of your facsimiles) mentioned how Columbia had beaten a 1-seed (Miami).

You did the same thing last year with Boston College (Miami again).

You do this same thing every year with different teams and then you pretend that it's a fluke. Very strange and incoherent arguments.

 

[Tiny Dancer]

Nine years. But somehow that is a "small sample size".

Nine games over 9 years is a small sample size.

The fact that you don't get that is not my problem.

 

[Tiny Dancer]

So you DO care about those losses when they prevent us from moving on? Are you finally admitting that it happens to the great Jim Morris?

Of course. I've never said otherwise. You've been arguing with yourself all this time.