Proof of Randomness in College Baseball

[Signal20 Cane]

Florida, LSU, Fullerton and TCU made it to the World Series 2 of the past three years, and only Florida made it 3 years in a row.

TCU made it to the CWS in 2014, 2015, 2016, and again in 2017. But somehow the Dartmouth math guy doesn't see where TCU made the CWS 3 years in a row. Well done, stats dude, well done.

Also, the one program that has made the CWS four years in a row is private and costs $58,000 a year. Their big public school rival costs $26,000 a year and has been to the CWS once in the past six years. I wonder if the difference is the head coach.....

This is canesproponet after JJ just dropped this bomb on him:

[video=youtube_share;Dx32b5igLwA]https://youtu.be/Dx32b5igLwA[/video]

 

[canesproponent]

The guy is a 46-year old concierge with a 4-year UM degree. Of course he is bitter.... I would hate UM as well, if that was my lot in life. ("Guest Specialist" is his official title.)

Nole fan picks 1 team. One private school team..... How about Stanford, Rice, USC, etc... TCU has had a great run. I agree. Vanderbilt has also performed better, but they slipped this year. Vanderbilt and TCU are the ONLY private school teams that compare to UM since Morris' decline.

Take Morris' worst stretch and compare his total wins against all other schools..... He is better than 88% of the 283 teams.... Base it on the Regionals/Supers appearances and he is better than all but 17%. That is math man. He may not like it, but it is what it is.

He picks the most insignificant stats and spouts virulence. He had the audacity to say that Dartmouth performed better than Morris between 2008 and 2017 (enough said right there)

UM made the World Series in both 2015 and 2016. This year (2017) was a disaster. Not sure what more there is to say....

 

[canesproponent]

Also, our main competition are the Florida schools, with ~$12,000 in tuition versus UM's $44,000. That does not take the Florida scholarships, and other Southern scholarships, into account. Also, look at the data on parent's pre-paying for the Florida state school system. His claim that it costs $26,000 to attend Florida schools is ANOTHER bald faced lie.

This is a huge disadvantage that eviscerated the GREATEST NCAA baseball program of all time - USC with FOURTEEN titles. They have been to the World Series 2x in the past 20-years.

Guy is understandably bitter, but the UM of 1994 is not the UM of today. He litters the Board with invective about an institution I adore. Heck, we lived 10-blocks away from it growing up. We were not allowed to apply there, but we are its ardent fans till the end.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

My daddy picks 1 team. One private school team..... How about Stanford, Rice, USC, etc... TCU has had a great run. I agree. Vanderbilt has also performed better, but they slipped this year. Vanderbilt and TCU are the ONLY private school teams that compare to UM since Morris' decline.

So you're saying that you can be a private school AND make the NCAA tournament. Good to know.

Take Morris' worst stretch and compare his total wins against all other schools..... He is better than 88% of the 283 teams....

Yesterday you wrote this, Mr. Wizard: "Morris performed better than 83% of coaches during his absolute worst stretch". You can't even decide which percentage you want to roll with.

He had the audacity to say that Dartmouth performed better than Morris between 2008 and 2017 (enough said right there)

Link please, liar. You are bad at math, you know literally nothing about baseball, and you make up quotes when you can't figure out what to say. Either link us to that quote or admit that I own you. One or the other, coward.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

Also, our main competition are the Florida schools, with ~$12,000 in tuition versus UM's $44,000. That does not take the Florida scholarships, and other Southern scholarships, into account. Also, look at the data on parent's pre-paying for the Florida state school system. His claim that it costs $26,000 to attend Florida schools is ANOTHER bald faced lie.

You can't read, can you. Would you care to show us where I said that the cost to attend other Florida schools is $26,000? Thanks in advance.

Also, our main competition isn't other Florida schools. But you would have to understand the sport to even begin to wrap your head around that.

Guy is understandably bitter, but the UM of 1994 is not the UM of today. He litters the Board with invective about an institution I adore. Heck, we lived 10-blocks away from it growing up. We were not allowed to apply there, but we are its ardent fans till the end.

It's your age. That explains why you're all over the place with your facts and numbers. It's a wonder that you figured out how to connect to the internet.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

Florida, LSU, Fullerton and TCU made it to the World Series 2 of the past three years, and only Florida made it 3 years in a row.

TCU made it to the CWS in 2014, 2015, 2016, and again in 2017. But somehow the Dartmouth math guy doesn't see where TCU made the CWS 3 years in a row. Well done, stats dude, well done.

Bump because he ignored it.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

This is the person who claims to be a statistical genius:

"Morris performed better than 83% of coaches during his absolute worst stretch"
"Take Morris' worst stretch and compare his total wins against all other schools..... He is better than 88% of the 283 teams"
"During MOrris' worst stretch, he outperformed ~83% of the 294 NCAA coaches in division 1 baseball"

So is it 88% or 83%? And are there 283 teams or 294 teams?

Want to know the funniest part? There are 299 D-1 teams.

I'm not an advocate of abusing the elderly, but ****, this is too easy.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

Bump for the coward.

 

[ucaned]

Also, our main competition are the Florida schools, with ~$12,000 in tuition versus UM's $44,000. That does not take the Florida scholarships, and other Southern scholarships, into account. Also, look at the data on parent's pre-paying for the Florida state school system. His claim that it costs $26,000 to attend Florida schools is ANOTHER bald faced lie.

This is a huge disadvantage that eviscerated the GREATEST NCAA baseball program of all time - USC with FOURTEEN titles. They have been to the World Series 2x in the past 20-years.

Guy is understandably bitter, but the UM of 1994 is not the UM of today. He litters the Board with invective about an institution I adore. Heck, we lived 10-blocks away from it growing up. We were not allowed to apply there, but we are its ardent fans till the end.

Can only speak from my families experience. My son played baseball in HS. Was offered a scholarship to a school that was $36K per year. His offer was $20K per year.

So perhaps the 11.7 scholarship payout from UM is far greater than our in-state public institution rivals, meaning we can somewhat be competitive in tuition because our scholarship value is higher (also, if a student is bright enough, are academic scholarships available here as well?). Combine it with a powerhouse baseball program and a topnotch staff and if can be attractive. However, if you have a disinterest coach, with a lame duck coach in waiting, combined with high tuition it is a recipe for people wondering whatever happened to the once powerful UM baseball team.

For some the money will be an issue, but in general it is an excuse to deflect underperformance of the staff. Rationalize how you will, but UM baseball should never field a team as poor as the team that played this past season.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

So perhaps the 11.7 scholarship payout from UM is far greater than our in-state public institution rivals, meaning we can somewhat be competitive in tuition because our scholarship value is higher (also, if a student is bright enough, are academic scholarships available here as well?). Combine it with a powerhouse baseball program and a topnotch staff and if can be attractive. However, if you have a disinterest coach, with a lame duck coach in waiting, combined with high tuition it is a recipe for people wondering whatever happened to the once powerful UM baseball team.

This is absolutely true. We have more options as a private school to offer academic aid. And you are absolutely correct that if you're a good recruiter you can sell your program even if the kid has to pay more.

 

[Tiny Dancer]

The field shows coaching and recruiting matters.

A gigantic strawman since nobody has argued otherwise.

In fact if you think differently then please quote somebody, anybody, saying that coaching and recruiting doesn't matter.

You won't be able to.

 

[Tiny Dancer]

So making it to the World Series this year makes you a good coach but not the previous 2?

I laughed when reading this because it's so true.

Making it to Omaha in 2015 and 2016 means nothing at all.

Making it in 2017 means coaching really matters!

 

[Tiny Dancer]

This is the 9th straight year in which Jim Morris will not defeat an equal or higher seed in the post-season, so let's ease up on the parade for 2015 and 2016.

But feel free to throw a parade for these teams that have coaching staffs far less accomplished (even recently) than ours.

 

[Tiny Dancer]

TCU made it to the CWS in 2014, 2015, 2016, and again in 2017.

If that was Miami you'd be complaining that they hadn't won anything.

 

[Tiny Dancer]

Also, the one program that has made the CWS four years in a row is private and costs $58,000 a year.

If that was Miami you'd complain that they have a losing record in that time frame.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

Come on, Canes0177. What is this, the fourth screen name? We know you're a Morris superfan, but this is getting a little ridiculous. Just cling to your 2001 national champs t-shirt and things will be okay.

 

[Tiny Dancer]

Come on, Canes0177. What is this, the fourth screen name? We know you're a Morris superfan, but this is getting a little ridiculous. Just cling to your 2001 national champs t-shirt and things will be okay.

Maybe your incompetent moderator friends will ban me again. Then you'll be saved from having to answer for your ridiculous claims.

 

[Tiny Dancer]

Come on, Canes0177. What is this, the fourth screen name? We know you're a Morris superfan, but this is getting a little ridiculous. Just cling to your 2001 national champs t-shirt and things will be okay.

Also, feel free to come up with a good answer for something, anything, that I've said.

 

[canesproponent]

Guy CANNOT even READ......

HA..... HA.......

If you use GAMES WON, then he is better than ~88%. This is the BEST barometer purely using Math.

If you base it on: (1.) how many coaches made 1 Super and 5 Regionals over his WORST stretch - then he is down to 83%. This is more subjective based on how you ascribe the values (i.e. what is a Championship worth, a Super, etc...). [Brian showed that not even 30 coaches accomplished this, which places Morris at 89.8% as above, but am not redoing it.]

Keep in mind that the NCAA placed Morris in Gainesville due to GEOGRAPHY, which implied that Miami was barely a 58-64 team on an RPI basis. If the NCAA had seeded us based on RPI (i.e. Florida as #1 gets the #64 team, etc...) then it would be more statistically significant. Even up against a top-3 seed, three years in a row, Miami came within two errant throws from Perez of forcing TWO game THREES.

I would AGREE with gnome IF UM had not been to Omaha in bot 2015 and 2016. Morris was top ~2% in 2015 and 2016. Period. By any measure other than the concierge's warped thinking.

2017 was ~55% (he was slightly better than average).

During his worst 6-year strecth, Morris mathematically was better than 83%-90% of the other coaches. UM Football would do ANYTHING to match Morris during his worst stretch.

Gnome bashed the team throughout and was finally outed this season.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

This is the person who claims to be a statistical genius:

"Morris performed better than 83% of coaches during his absolute worst stretch"
"Take Morris' worst stretch and compare his total wins against all other schools..... He is better than 88% of the 283 teams"
"During MOrris' worst stretch, he outperformed ~83% of the 294 NCAA coaches in division 1 baseball"

So is it 88% or 83%? And are there 283 teams or 294 teams?

Want to know the funniest part? There are 299 D-1 teams.

I'm not an advocate of abusing the elderly, but ****, this is too easy.