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Proof and specifics of our improvement

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SWFLHurricane said:
That #1 Class (Lol) that Shannon signed, had absolutely no business being #1.....Bama truly had the #1 class.
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I peep in hindsight, lol. At the time? You couldn't tell me **** bout Miami 1st heavily melanated coach.

Anyone who talked down on Randy was a Racist or a coon to me. I wad extremely emotional about it. Curtailed all logic to make endless excuses.
 
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Ryanmilli said:
I’m not trying to be or seem anything. We’ve been hovering around .500 since 2006 and were 7-5 in 2021. The program has fallen way behind the good P5 programs in every respect.

In that context, I don’t really care that we’re continuing to hover around .500 right now. I’m more concerned in the short run with whether we’re closing the gap with real football programs so we have the foundation to actually sustain long-term competitiveness (playoff picture) starting in a couple years.

You can disagree and obviously do. But Manny was going nowhere and I’m not convinced that the other candidates would have been able to change the football operation the way Mario is. That’s important. Obviously he needs to win ultimately.
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20231122_111313.gif
 
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Hey fam, I'm not sure what's going on ITT, but... OP's excellent work and Excel inspired me to throw together some data and chart it because I like a good 2x2 matrix and ain't have sh*t to do this week. Thought it could add to the discussion but if it doesn't, IDGAF.

Background:
  • Looked at all games played in Mario's tenure at Miami (2022 and 2023).
  • Data Points - Bolded labels and orange dots are 2023 games. Unbolded labels and green dots are 2022 games.
  • Y-Axis - H2H Points Differential. Positive numbers mean win and negative numbers mean loss.
  • X-Axis - H2H Miami Yards Per Play divided by Opponent Yards Per Play. I've always liked the YPP stat and think it's a great indicator of success for a team's Offense and Defense. I'm sure I'm not the first to create a MiamiYPP/OpponentYPP metric (not sure if there is a specific name for it), but the eyeball test tells me that standardizing @ 1.0 appears consequential given the distribution below.
  • Data Key - See to the right of chart. Shows the game data used and wins (in green) and losses (in red).
My Takeaways:
  • The first 4 games of 2023 gave us reason to be excited and this data shows it, especially when compared to the first 2 games of 2022.
  • By the eye test, and based on data/distribution, it feels like we should have beaten GT (duh) and Louisville this year.
  • The 2022 Virginia game was an abomination and quite an outlier... and as a counter the point above, feels like we should have lost that one
  • Games which scored at 1.0 MiamiYPP/OpponentYPP metric ('23 Clemson, '23 FSU, '22 TA&M, '22 UNC) felt like toss-up games while watching them (except for maybe FSU?) and it seems like the data confirms that. Unfortunately, we lost 3 of those 4 games.
Other than that, not sure what else to say other than, hopefully, all the data is calculated correctly, lol.
Screenshot 2023-11-22.png
 
hoops156 said:
5-10 in the ACC. it comes down to Wins and Losses. thats the results. the rest is bull****. win games. thats what mario gets paid for. we dont need excuses. legit 2 lone conference wins this year. this is the weakest p5 conference in football
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It's PART of what he gets paid for... You all simply don't choose to comprehend that the job entails more than wins and losses. You want a coach that can worry about nothing but wins and losses right this second than go support one of these ready made schools that doesn't have the same issues. That limits you to about 5 schools. But I'm sure you'll figure it out.
 
Ryanmilli said:
I’m not trying to be or seem anything. We’ve been hovering around .500 since 2006 and were 7-5 in 2021. The program has fallen way behind the good P5 programs in every respect.

In that context, I don’t really care that we’re continuing to hover around .500 right now. I’m more concerned in the short run with whether we’re closing the gap with real football programs so we have the foundation to actually sustain long-term competitiveness (playoff picture) starting in a couple years.

You can disagree and obviously do. But Manny was going nowhere and I’m not convinced that the other candidates would have been able to change the football operation the way Mario is. That’s important. Obviously he needs to win ultimately.
Click to expand...
No it hasn't. Some of you just really have a flair for the overly dramatic. When you say the good p5 schools if you mean a very small hand full then yes we're behind in many aspects. Outside of that, than no we're certainly not far behind. I get everyone finds it convenient to look at nothing but a record and say this is what we are. So we're people doing the same thing for Larry coker in 2000 when any sane fan is able to acknowledge his hire is what started the slide for our program? How bout even earlier with the hiring of shalallalalalalalala? Is it fair to say those two moments in time impacted us moving forward? So in that same context are we as semi intellectual beings able to acknowledge that 2021 didn't just change the outlook for our program. It also caused various acc programs to change staffs and in my eyes as I said back then some very good staffs were being built. The acc right now top to bottom has far better play than it did at that time with Clemson and to a lesser extent unc as the only two programs with any serious forward trajectory. Reality is we have turned this thing around. We've made some huge strides and we still have more to make. No need to keep rehashing what we need to work on. Results will be the last part of the process. That's just what it is. You want a quick fix like 2017 gave us where any one that knows **** about football knew it was smoke and mirrors. Or do you want a team that's built to compete year in and year out. The people who say 2017 were the same people saying Malik rozier was great the same people amazed by 2021 Tyler. None of that had a foundation. It was temporary results and coaches capable of adapting did exactly that. End result 2018 rosier sucked, 2022 Tyler sucked...
 
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PIPO said:
I find this very interesting.

Can you care to elaborate and share with us what that 20% of the OCD side of Mario he has worked on and sometimes struggles with?

I think we all, as people, struggle with this. I know I do when it comes to work and definitely with my kids when sometimes I step in and I just shouldn’t. Let them sink or swim on their own and learn from it so that they can be better down the road.

Is it what you already mentioned in terms letting his coaches do the job and sometimes he can’t help himself?
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Do you get how someone who's OCD is able to function? Everything they do fits an exact pattern. When that pattern has deviations it drives them batty... Pretty self explanatory hermano.
 
AbsoluteUnit said:
Hey fam, I'm not sure what's going on ITT, but... OP's excellent work and Excel inspired me to throw together some data and chart it because I like a good 2x2 matrix and ain't have sh*t to do this week. Thought it could add to the discussion but if it doesn't, IDGAF.

Background:
  • Looked at all games played in Mario's tenure at Miami (2022 and 2023).
  • Data Points - Bolded labels and orange dots are 2023 games. Unbolded labels and green dots are 2022 games.
  • Y-Axis - H2H Points Differential. Positive numbers mean win and negative numbers mean loss.
  • X-Axis - H2H Miami Yards Per Play divided by Opponent Yards Per Play. I've always liked the YPP stat and think it's a great indicator of success for a team's Offense and Defense. I'm sure I'm not the first to create a MiamiYPP/OpponentYPP metric (not sure if there is a specific name for it), but the eyeball test tells me that standardizing @ 1.0 appears consequential given the distribution below.
  • Data Key - See to the right of chart. Shows the game data used and wins (in green) and losses (in red).
My Takeaways:
  • The first 4 games of 2023 gave us reason to be excited and this data shows it, especially when compared to the first 2 games of 2022.
  • By the eye test, and based on data/distribution, it feels like we should have beaten GT (duh) and Louisville this year.
  • The 2022 Virginia game was an abomination and quite an outlier... and as a counter the point above, feels like we should have lost that one
  • Games which scored at 1.0 MiamiYPP/OpponentYPP metric ('23 Clemson, '23 FSU, '22 TA&M, '22 UNC) felt like toss-up games while watching them (except for maybe FSU?) and it seems like the data confirms that. Unfortunately, we lost 3 of those 4 games.
Other than that, not sure what else to say other than, hopefully, all the data is calculated correctly, lol.
View attachment 267284
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Not sure if I completely understand or grasp what you are saying but I’ll try:

So 4 toss up games that we won and 7 toss up games that we lost based on points and yards differential?
 
Brooklyndee said:
No it hasn't. Some of you just really have a flair for the overly dramatic. When you say the good p5 schools if you mean a very small hand full then yes we're behind in many aspects. Outside of that, than no we're certainly not far behind. I get everyone finds it convenient to look at nothing but a record and say this is what we are. So we're people doing the same thing for Larry coker in 2000 when any sane fan is able to acknowledge his hire is what started the slide for our program? How bout even earlier with the hiring of shalallalalalalalala? Is it fair to say those two moments in time impacted us moving forward? So in that same context are we as semi intellectual beings able to acknowledge that 2021 didn't just change the outlook for our program. It also caused various acc programs to change staffs and in my eyes as I said back then some very good staffs were being built. The acc right now top to bottom has far better play than it did at that time with Clemson and to a lesser extent unc as the only two programs with any serious forward trajectory. Reality is we have turned this thing around. We've made some huge strides and we still have more to make. No need to keep rehashing what we need to work on. Results will be the last part of the process. That's just what it is. You want a quick fix like 2017 gave us where any one that knows **** about football knew it was smoke and mirrors. Or do you want a team that's built to compete year in and year out. The people who say 2017 were the same people saying Malik rozier was great the same people amazed by 2021 Tyler. None of that had a foundation. It was temporary results and coaches capable of adapting did exactly that. End result 2018 rosier sucked, 2022 Tyler sucked...
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Shalala pushed this program so far back we are still not entirely out of the woods from that **** show. Soon, our facilities are finally going to be among the elite and our Athletic Department (football especially) is going to be run like a professional football team, practically. OSU and Bama are great examples of established machines that produce success. These things take time despite the narrative on these boards. Mario is building the program from inside out. I believe the results will begin to come in next season.
 
Hurracanes said:
Shalala pushed this program so far back we are still not entirely out of the woods from that **** show. Soon, our facilities are finally going to be among the elite and our Athletic Department (football especially) is going to be run like a professional football team, practically. OSU and Bama are great examples of established machines that produce success. These things take time despite the narrative on these boards. Mario is building the program from inside out. I believe the results will begin to come in next season.
Click to expand...
Some people simply can't have nice things. Why bother to waste our breath to people who simply want to see a smaller picture
 
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Brooklyndee said:
It's PART of what he gets paid for... You all simply don't choose to comprehend that the job entails more than wins and losses. You want a coach that can worry about nothing but wins and losses right this second than go support one of these ready made schools that doesn't have the same issues. That limits you to about 5 schools. But I'm sure you'll figure it out.
Click to expand...
I think I get what you are saying.

The program in whole totality - yes or no?

How would you break down the areas?

- Players/Player Personnel Dept/Recruiting
- Coaching & Off Field Staff
- Strength & Conditioning
- Education
- Community
- On Field Performance
- Facilities
- Alumni Base (Players & non players)
- Off campus relationships (High Schools, Etc)
- NIL

I may be missing some others but how are we grading out in those areas in terms of how they will impact the On Field Performance?
 
PIPO said:
Not sure if I completely understand or grasp what you are saying but I’ll try:

So 4 toss up games that we won and 7 toss up games that we lost based on points and yards differential?
Click to expand...
For the MiamiYPP/OppYPP metric: if it's <1.0 the opponent's offense is executing better than Miami's, if it's equal to 1.0 both team's offenses are executing equally, if it's >1.0 Miami's offense is executing better than the Opponent. With that:
  • We lost every game where the metric is <1.0, except for 2022 UVA game
  • We won 1 and lost 3 where the metric is equal to 1.0
  • We won every game where the metric is >1.0, except for 2023 GT and 2023 Louisville
 
PIPO said:
I think I get what you are saying.

The program in whole totality - yes or no?

How would you break down the areas?

- Players/Player Personnel Dept/Recruiting
- Coaching & Off Field Staff
- Strength & Conditioning
- Education
- Community
- On Field Performance
- Facilities
- Alumni Base (Players & non players)
- Off campus relationships (High Schools, Etc)
- NIL

I may be missing some others but how are we grading out in those areas in terms of how they will impact the On Field Performance?
Click to expand...
We've noticeably improved in all of those areas ESPECIALLY
#1
Players/Player Personnel Dept/Recruiting
Click to expand...
#2
Strength & Conditioning/nutrition(not just from a staff and equipment perspective but especially programs put in place)
We went from having feely and a s & c staff of 4 people to having feld and a staff of 15. People who each have been involved with s-c at a high level elsewhere.
We went from having Kyle Bellamy (somehow he actually has a job somewhere else again. Believe it's. Pretty big job. A sucker is born every second.)and his gogurts and fruit cups with catered food from several **** caterers to having a HUGE staff for nutrition and what's coming in the new facility is on par with what bama and Georgia are doing. All chefs at facility who cook to order. Large menu and nutritionists galore. I get most of you assume this should be the norm. Well simply put it's not. In very few places does this exist at this level. When I was at Greentree we had a ****** locker room with wood panelling and a ancient gym set up with puke green walls.

#3
Facilities... Do I really need to go into this? And it's nowhere close to done. All the temporary facilities we have now that are already improvements from what we previously had in place are minor compared to what's coming. Locker rooms,weight rooms,dining hall,study hall,training facilities and on and on.

Nil,community relations,on and on.

From a negative perspective where we have room to improve is pretty obvious for most so I won't go into those topics. What I will say is while our trainers have significantly improved, we need to continue to evolve from a structural perspective. Vinny needs to be sent to pasture. Although his day to day involvement is minimal, we don't even need him in an oversight position.
Ish needs to go as well. He's been around forever just like Vinny but now for obvious reasons he's got bitter. It's not a good look for us or him.
 
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AbsoluteUnit said:
Hey fam, I'm not sure what's going on ITT, but... OP's excellent work and Excel inspired me to throw together some data and chart it because I like a good 2x2 matrix and ain't have sh*t to do this week. Thought it could add to the discussion but if it doesn't, IDGAF.

Background:
  • Looked at all games played in Mario's tenure at Miami (2022 and 2023).
  • Data Points - Bolded labels and orange dots are 2023 games. Unbolded labels and green dots are 2022 games.
  • Y-Axis - H2H Points Differential. Positive numbers mean win and negative numbers mean loss.
  • X-Axis - H2H Miami Yards Per Play divided by Opponent Yards Per Play. I've always liked the YPP stat and think it's a great indicator of success for a team's Offense and Defense. I'm sure I'm not the first to create a MiamiYPP/OpponentYPP metric (not sure if there is a specific name for it), but the eyeball test tells me that standardizing @ 1.0 appears consequential given the distribution below.
  • Data Key - See to the right of chart. Shows the game data used and wins (in green) and losses (in red).
My Takeaways:
  • The first 4 games of 2023 gave us reason to be excited and this data shows it, especially when compared to the first 2 games of 2022.
  • By the eye test, and based on data/distribution, it feels like we should have beaten GT (duh) and Louisville this year.
  • The 2022 Virginia game was an abomination and quite an outlier... and as a counter the point above, feels like we should have lost that one
  • Games which scored at 1.0 MiamiYPP/OpponentYPP metric ('23 Clemson, '23 FSU, '22 TA&M, '22 UNC) felt like toss-up games while watching them (except for maybe FSU?) and it seems like the data confirms that. Unfortunately, we lost 3 of those 4 games.
Other than that, not sure what else to say other than, hopefully, all the data is calculated correctly, lol.
View attachment 267284
Click to expand...
Thanks for putting this together. Not that it changed my mind about anything, but like the work that went into it.
At the end of the day, was there some improvement? Yes - in the talent acquisition area for sure. Bain, Jacolby and many of the transfers definitely lifted up the talent level.
Defensively, we are trending in the right direction, especially with Guidry leading the way. We don’t have the depth we need to be elite, but he had us in most every game (I think UNC and Louisville got away from him a bit), but the kids never gave up.
Offensively, the OL appears to be improved (hard to say when we baby them and max protect a high percentage). The WRs seem to be a little better, although they struggle to find/idenify and land in the soft spots of zone.

Didn’t see the improvement we needed at QB or RB (nothwithstanding Fletchers late season surge). And definitely didn’t see ANY improvement in game day management. Would love to see additional resources to help with that area.

My takeaway question - while there was improvement, did our improvement outweigh the opportunities we left on the table? Gameday management easily cost us 2 games, while improvement in other areas allowed us to win 2 games we probably shouldn‘t have expected to win coming into the season. That’s a wash.

I struggle to understand why we should be satisfied with incremental improvements overall, especially when other teams find turnaround success much sooner. I totally understand the rationale that some teams aren’t built for the long haul and their success will be fleeting, but if Mario had better game day management, we could easily accomplish both objectives (win more now and develop long term foundation). We could easily be a 9 win team right now with much easier to see improvement if only our game day management of HC and to a lesser extent OC was better.

The biggest area of possible improvement for the forseeable future will always be game day management. Even if we get JS, multiple DTs, a quality QB, there are going to be at least 2-3 games each year that are won or loss by your coaching.

Show me improvement in that area and you won’t have to come up with graphs trying to illustrate there is improvement in the grays.
 
Brooklyndee said:
We've noticeably improved in all of those areas ESPECIALLY
#1

#2
Strength & Conditioning/nutrition(not just from a staff and equipment perspective but especially programs put in place)
We went from having feely and a s & c staff of 4 people to having feld and a staff of 15. People who each have been involved with s-c at a high level elsewhere.
We went from having Kyle Bellamy (somehow he actually has a job somewhere else again. Believe it's. Pretty big job. A sucker is born every second.)and his gogurts and fruit cups with catered food from several **** caterers to having a HUGE staff for nutrition and what's coming in the new facility is on par with what bama and Georgia are doing. All chefs at facility who cook to order. Large menu and nutritionists galore. I get most of you assume this should be the norm. Well simply put it's not. In very few places does this exist at this level. When I was at Greentree we had a ****** locker room with wood panelling and a ancient gym set up with puke green walls.

#3
Facilities... Do I really need to go into this? And it's nowhere close to done. All the temporary facilities we have now that are already improvements from what we previously had in place are minor compared to what's coming. Locker rooms,weight rooms,dining hall,study hall,training facilities and on and on.

Nil,community relations,on and on.

From a negative perspective where we have room to improve is pretty obvious for most so I won't go into those topics. What I will say is while our trainers have significantly improved, we need to continue to evolve from a structural perspective. Vinny needs to be sent to pasture. Although his day to day involvement is minimal, we don't even need him in an oversight position.
Ish needs to go as well. He's been around forever just like Vinny but now for obvious reasons he's got bitter. It's not a good look for us or him.
Click to expand...
Thank you for updates/input and background info.

Certainly helps in understanding other things besides the product on the field.

Helps to give context to a lot of things which aren’t often thought about except for when things go overtly wrong/on fire.
 
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