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OT - 49ers vs. Lions - NFC Championship

Hey @cway313 this was u when Kampbell was KORCHING IT UP goin 4 it when he didn’t need to! Wait 4 it…
Angry Denzel Washington GIF

BANG!!!!!😂😂😂😂😂
 
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As a Canes fan there was no betta feelin den seein Free Suck University get left out the playoffs & get beat by 60 in the bowl game. As a Bears fan there’s no betta feelin den seein 2 of ur division rivals lose back to back! Den it was my nephew who put em out! I knew nep wouldn’t let Unk down @Rellyrell 😂 As far as u @cway313 …
Goodfellas GIF

BANG
 
NC_Canes_11 said:
This is not about season long numbers. Going for it on 4th down increases variance. It’s one thing and totally acceptable to do when you’re a dog and it’s a close game or you’re down. You do not want to increase variance when you are up 2 scores or when you’re down and it’s late in the 4th with a chance to tie, and you aren’t inside the 5 yard line.

“Defense wasn’t stopping ****.” They only gave up 10 points in 30+ minutes to that point. Stop with the bull****.

There is not a single thing that can be said that justify those two calls. And if you want to blame Jersey Mike for being trash, why was Campbell ignorant enough to not get another kicker? Either way it’s on him.
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Lol how many good kickers exactly do you think are in Free Agency in the middle of the season? Bagley was added in the final third of the season because their previous kicker was even worse.

On the second call the defense had just given up like 24 straight points or some**** lol. They didn't stop the 49ers one time on defense in the 2nd half leading up to that 4th down decision. I completely disagree that there is not a single thing that can be said to justify those two calls. I actually think you're entire way of thinking about this is horrible tbh. Again, this is you criticizing the result. The decision was fine. If they convert on either of those 4th downs and turn it into 7 points, that is better than them making BOTH FGs (which would have been a 59% probability given Bagleys history over 40). I do agree it increases variance. But again that is a better argument for the first 4th down attempt they had a 14pt lead for than the second 4th down attempt they were trailing for.

The earlier 4th down call I can agree more with the argument to just kick the FG. The half just started and your defense did just hold the 49ers to a FG when they started with the ball. However, again the ball hit the ******* WR in the hands! It's that ******* simple. That's what separates it being a good call and a bad call.

But saying the season long numbers don't factor in is stupid. lol. If you have a guy in the NBA that hit FTs at a 95% rate would you not want him to shoot the final FTs at the end of the game over the guy that hits 80%? Well you have a kicker that makes 77% of his 40-49 yard FGs. You have an offense that converts 4th downs at a very high rate. Converting a that one 4th down and turning it into a TD is worth more than double being successful kicking the FG. And later in the game the actual situation made going for it an even better call...
 
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PIPO said:
Your entire point was my point. I even said that if I agreed with you on going on the first 4th down, the 2nd time it made sense to kick the FG because it then becomes a 2 possession game and that you would have 6 minutes and 4 turnouts to stop San Fran and win or tie the game during the last possession of the game:

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Again, I am literally saying the SECOND 4th down is actually a better decision to go for it given that situation than the first one was for the reason I explained. You put it in your offenses hands to significantly increase your chances to go and win you the game by converting that 4th down late. It puts you at an advantage. And you make that decision knowing your probility with your kicker - and that second 4th down was the further of the two field goals as well - and how your defense is playing up to that point. So if you fail the conversion you know the new situation on what you need earlier. That's literally why the analytics tweet I posted earlier said they lost more on EPA for the Reynolds drop (the first 4th down attempt) than they did for the second 4th down incompletion at the end of the 4th. The numbers literally say the second attempt made more sense than the first. Now obviously missing the conversion is worse than making the FG lol, no one is denying that. But again, you don't know the result ahead of time. All you know when making that decision is A) you don't trust your kicker, B) you don't really trust your defense, and C) you have an elite offense who you have trusted in these exact situations all season and they've mostly come through successfully for you.
 
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calinative umstudent said:
Lol how many good kickers exactly do you think are in Free Agency in the middle of the season? Bagley was added in the final third of the season because their previous kicker was even worse.

On the second call the defense had just given up like 24 straight points or some**** lol. They didn't stop the 49ers one time on defense in the 2nd half leading up to that 4th down decision. I completely disagree that there is not a single thing that can be said to justify those two calls. I actually think you're entire way of thinking about this is horrible tbh. Again, this is you criticizing the result. The decision was fine. If they convert on either of those 4th downs and turn it into 7 points, that is better than them making BOTH FGs (which would have been a 59% probability given Bagleys history over 40). I do agree it increases variance. But again that is a better argument for the first 4th down attempt they had a 14pt lead for than the second 4th down attempt they were trailing for.

The earlier 4th down call I can agree more with the argument to just kick the FG. The half just started and your defense did just hold the 49ers to a FG when they started with the ball. However, again the ball hit the ******* WR in the hands! It's that ******* simple. That's what separates it being a good call and a bad call.

But saying the season long numbers don't factor in is stupid. lol. If you have a guy in the NBA that hit FTs at a 95% rate would you not want him to shoot the final FTs at the end of the game over the guy that hits 80%? Well you have a kicker that makes 77% of his 40-49 yard FGs. You have an offense that converts 4th downs at a very high rate. Converting a that one 4th down and turning it into a TD is worth more than double being successful kicking the FG. And later in the game the actual situation made going for it an even better call...
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Wrong. Badgley is a career 77% kicker from 40-49 which both of those kicks would have been in that range. You’re comparing that to the Lions being 53% on 4th down all year, but I’ll even give you 70ish percent just in case they went for it for whatever reason in 4th in longer spots. You’re still taking a worse percentage in going for it. How is that for “analytics”?

Shooting a FT vs going for a 4th down are not in the same stratosphere. It’s a silly comparison with no basis in reality. FT’s never change. Every single play in football is different.
 
NC_Canes_11 said:
Wrong. Badgley is a career 77% kicker from 40-49 which both of those kicks would have been in that range. You’re comparing that to the Lions being 53% on 4th down all year, but I’ll even give you 70ish percent just in case they went for it for whatever reason in 4th in longer spots. You’re still taking a worse percentage in going for it. How is that for “analytics”?

Shooting a FT vs going for a 4th down are not in the same stratosphere. It’s a silly comparison with no basis in reality. FT’s never change. Every single play in football is different.
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.77*.77 is .59 which is why I said that would be his odds at making both lol.... But yeah I'm wrong.
Its a worse percentage than going for it... at the reward of more points, yeah thats how it ******* works. It it was more risk for less points, it wouldn't make sense, I agree.

Right shooting game winning FTs is so much different than attempting 45yard FGs lol. Football is different, but Golf isn't, right? FOH
 
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calinative umstudent said:
.77*.77 is .59 which is why I said that would be his odds at making both lol.... But yeah I'm wrong.
Its a worse percentage than going for it... at the reward of more points, yeah thats how it ******* works. It it was more risk for less points, it wouldn't make sense, I agree.

Right shooting game winning FTs is so much different than attempting 45yard FGs lol. Football is different, but Golf isn't, right? FOH
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It’s the same golf shot that got you there all weekend. Why change it? According to you what’s on the line doesn’t matter.
 
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YankeesCane said:
ummm why were the Niners running the ball a minute left game over?

Mario?
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Because, unlike Mario, the game clock was about 5 seconds farther out than kneeling would run off. Hence why they took the delay of game penalty and Purdy snapped the ball one last time. By then they’d milked it to a 1 second discrepancy.
 
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NC_Canes_11 said:
So they won according to EPA? That’s awesome. Who do the Lions get to play in the EPA Super Bowl in two weeks?
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Look at the first stat used in that EPA nonsense post

Gibbs fumble cost them 5.5 points

It was the first play of the drive from their own like 30 yard line

Sometimes dorks should just stay quiet
 
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