On Emmanuel Karnley...

[Alex_Dynamix]

We won 10 games last year for the 2nd time in 20 years and the other person that did it is a Hall of Famer. Not everything Mario does sucks.

Its pointless bro, some fans just hate/dislike Mario & will discredit him matter what argument you bring up it is what it is, dude your'e replying to said we'd be building Lane Kiffin a statue here by now if he was our HC compared to Mario lol smh

 

[PalyCane]

My view is that Mario is personally an elite recruiter, but we aren't recruiting at an elite level. That's reserved for programs like Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State. Maybe Texas now.

Our biggest issue is building the brand. If Mario was at Ohio State, he'd never lose a kid. We need to overcome 20 years of bad ball.

Another issue seems to be the differences among conferences. The top 11 recruiting classes in 2024 were all SEC and Big Ten schools. 16 of the top 20 recruiting classes were SEC/Big Ten schools. The evidence says that top recruits want to play in those two conferences.

ND had the 12th ranked recruiting class and UM's class was ranked 13th.

Mario does quite well among non SEC/Big Ten schools. But we struggle to compete for top recruits compared to the SEC and Big Ten, as do schools from all the other conferences.

 

[ALLoverCANE]

Honestly, I have more concerns than this and will expound upon them with numbers at a later date. The usual fanboys will get blue in the face and yell because it hurts their feelings, but will wait til the Spring is fully done.

I think there’s a major reality check that’s going to happen if we don’t drastically improve the starters at multiple positions in the next four days. And scanning the portal currently, there’s very little of those guys left (and that entered to begin with).

As of RIGHT NOW (things can change and there’s still an offseason of improvement to come), we are worse at almost every position on offense than in 2024, and didn’t improve enough on defense for us to compete nationally imo. Which is disappointing in Year 4.

I'm not a sunshine pumper by any means, but I'm curious where else you see holes.

I can quibble with TE depth, but I think Lofton has AA potential.

OL should be top 10.

Beck is a good QB, but I understand the injury concerns.

Hard to imagine CB not being above average (or better).

DL is very talented and it's time for it to show on the field.

Special teams could be a problem, but that's a crapshoot every year.

 

[ALLoverCANE]

It's not, but it's way better than where we were pre-Mario when we weren't even relevant and you had to wait until the weekend preview shows got to the "and other games this weekend" in the last ten minutes to even hear us mentioned.

Last year was the ultimate double-edged sword. Easily, the most successful overall season in decades. and also the most disappointing because of how it ended. Both can be true.

The problem with the pre-Mario comparisons is that there are confounding variables.

Pre-Mario, there was no NIL. Pre-Mario, the University wasn't investing in football at the level it is now.

Mario's 3 year results are no better than his predecessors, but the 2024 team was probably the best since 2003 or 2004. How much of that is due to Mario vs the other factors I mentioned? Hard to say.

 

[CANESCANES]

Next years not looking good. Francis will go early, but after that its a whole lot of DAY 3 guys. Beck is old,+ UCL, Bain doesn't have 1st round traits that will push him to day 2/day 3 even if he has a good year to leave early. Fletcher isn't as good of a prospect as Martinez + fumble issues, the rest of the oline are day 3 guys without position versatility.

Some of these highly paid sophmores need to make the jump this year or it will be 3 years of full mario classes that just aren't up to expectations of a 20+ million roster

“Beck is old”

He’s only 23, doesn’t turn 24 until November

Bo Nix, Michael Penix were both 24 when got drafted

This was the odds for the 1st overall pick in April 2024

 

[grover]

The problem with the pre-Mario comparisons is that there are confounding variables.

Pre-Mario, there was no NIL. Pre-Mario, the University wasn't investing in football at the level it is now.

Mario's 3 year results are no better than his predecessors, but the 2024 team was probably the best since 2003 or 2004. How much of that is due to Mario vs the other factors I mentioned? Hard to say.

Throwing an asterisk on his accomplishments assumes we see an equivalent level of NIL commitment without Mario.

 

[Bender]

I'm not a sunshine pumper by any means, but I'm curious where else you see holes.

I can quibble with TE depth, but I think Lofton has AA potential.

OL should be top 10.

Beck is a good QB, but I understand the injury concerns.

Hard to imagine CB not being above average (or better).

DL is very talented and it's time for it to show on the field.

Special teams could be a problem, but that's a crapshoot every year.

I think our team will play football completely different compared to last year.

Last year, it was almost expected for our offense to play spectacular football and score 45+ every game, because we had to. Now, with the investments on defense, we'll be seeing a much more competitive group on that part.

On the flip side, the offense will be focused much more on the shorter passing and run game. It'll be far less vertical, meaning less points.

The team won't be worse, perhaps even better, but it'll be less spectacular, so people may get the feeling it'll be worse.

 

[DoctorKrazey]

 

[DoctorKrazey]

Another issue seems to be the differences among conferences. The top 11 recruiting classes in 2024 were all SEC and Big Ten schools. 16 of the top 20 recruiting classes were SEC/Big Ten schools. The evidence says that top recruits want to play in those two conferences.

ND had the 12th ranked recruiting class and UM's class was ranked 13th.

Mario does quite well among non SEC/Big Ten schools. But we struggle to compete for top recruits compared to the SEC and Big Ten, as do schools from all the other conferences.

Being in the ACC will continue to be an issue that will be difficult to overcome, but not having won anything substantial in 20+ years is another monkey on our back that’s hard to downplay. Until we’re able to start winning 10 or more games a year and making deep playoff runs many of these elite 5-star kids are in a “wait and see” approach when it comes to Miami. All things considered, I think it’s pretty impressive Mario has been able to recruit as well as he has.

 

[DTP]

I think our team will play football completely different compared to last year.

Last year, it was almost expected for our offense to play spectacular football and score 45+ every game, because we had to. Now, with the investments on defense, we'll be seeing a much more competitive group on that part.

On the flip side, the offense will be focused much more on the shorter passing and run game. It'll be far less vertical, meaning less points.

The team won't be worse, perhaps even better, but it'll be less spectacular, so people may get the feeling it'll be worse.

Part of the reason the offense was so spectacular last year was that the defense sucked and they had to keep the pedal to the floor for four quarters to win. There’s a natural tendency to lose urgency when you’re winning by a large margin. Even if the coach hasn’t emptied the bench yet, the offense might tend to become a little lethargic and the play calling will definitely get conservative. The fact that the offense had to remain hyper aggressive in most of the games really bumped the numbers.

 

[DC3]

“Beck is old”

He’s only 23, doesn’t turn 24 until November

Bo Nix, Michael Penix were both 24 when got drafted

The other 2 also have better Arm talent than Beck did when healthy.

I can show you Brad Kayaa’s odds of being QB1 coming into his money year or other former highly ranked offseason QBs that fell.

Beck is going to be a solid QB for Miami, but I don’t think he’s a day 1 guy.

 

[Angry Ibis]

It's not, but it's way better than where we were pre-Mario when we weren't even relevant and you had to wait until the weekend preview shows got to the "and other games this weekend" in the last ten minutes to even hear us mentioned.

Last year was the ultimate double-edged sword. Easily, the most successful overall season in decades. and also the most disappointing because of how it ended. Both can be true.

Going 12-13 with some of the worst blowouts we’ve ever seen contributed to Miami being on the Not Top 10 list — like getting blown off the field by MTSU and the brain dead GT decision…

Last year was disappointing because the end was predictable: Mario didn’t balance the roster and choked down the stretch… Cam Ward made the season fun, watching the same weaknesses exposed for 11 weeks with no answers after us idiots here identified the weaknesses the previous December is not peacocking worthy…

Barely better than Manny is not the standard.

 

[E1k]

I guess it all depends on what someone considers "elite." For me, that's delivering a top 5 class consistently and signing the most impactful players (top 100). By my standards, he is not elite. As you mentioned, he has "elite" traits (relentless, hard working, stubborn) etc., but that hasn't translated to "elite" results.

At Oregon he never produced a top 5 class. His classes finished 6th, 7th and 13th twice. At Miami, one top 5 class thus far. And that class was 10th in average player rating which I consider more important because it shows the quality of a class top to bottom. So in 7 classes, one top 5 result. Doesn't qualify as elite for me.

This is ELITE recruiting. Signed top 100 players the last 3 years.

Alabama: 31
Georgia: 30
Texas: 24
Ohio State: 21
Oregon: 17

Second Tier (not bad, just not elite)
Miami: 12

Yep it’s levels

 

[Brains]

Any idea what the NIL payout was for Karnley's 4 months at UM?

All of it, I think.

 

[Ispyin]

When Xavier Lucas came into the picture, Miami knew it was oversigning at CB. The expectation was that the player(s) who finished on the losing end of the battle might jump in the Portal. That's what happened here.

Salute to @Memnon, @JayCane20 and others for actually watching Karnley's film and identifying some holes that showed themselves on Greentree. He showed flashes, particularly when carrying vertically, but he was more inconsistent than his peers. Damari Brown's strong showing upon returning mid-Spring was probably the nail in the coffin of Karnley's UM career.

So you mean all the players you signed to contracts for mini camp don’t make the final 53 man roster or practice squad but somehow people are freaking out about evaluations?

 

[JHallCanes]

Another issue seems to be the differences among conferences. The top 11 recruiting classes in 2024 were all SEC and Big Ten schools. 16 of the top 20 recruiting classes were SEC/Big Ten schools. The evidence says that top recruits want to play in those two conferences.

ND had the 12th ranked recruiting class and UM's class was ranked 13th.

Mario does quite well among non SEC/Big Ten schools. But we struggle to compete for top recruits compared to the SEC and Big Ten, as do schools from all the other conferences.

For sure

I also lump the portal in with recruiting these days anyway so us finishing 13th was disappointing but we bounced back with a very strong winter portal

But the portal is much of the same thing. If we ever land a DT the SEC wants in the portal I’ll probably start believing every lie possible

 

[Alex_Dynamix]

Throwing an asterisk on his accomplishments assumes we see an equivalent level of NIL commitment without Mario.

That’s what a lot of fans don’t understand. It might make you mad but the reality is Mario was handpicked as the guy to invest those resources into by the powers that be because they felt HE was the guy to bring Miami football back to relevance, can’t just assume any other hire we made or if Manny was retained that we would’ve had that same commitment to the program infrastructure.

 

[Angry Ibis]

Its pointless bro, some fans just hate/dislike Mario & will discredit him matter what argument you bring up it is what it is, dude your'e replying to said we'd be building Lane Kiffin a statue here by now if he was our HC compared to Mario lol smh

You’re building one for a dude winning 10 games in the ACC, while mocking one who won 10 in 3 of the last 4 in the SEC…

 

[Angry Ibis]

That’s what a lot of fans don’t understand. It might make you mad but the reality is Mario was handpicked as the guy to invest those resources into by the powers that be because they felt HE was the guy to bring Miami football back to relevance, can’t just assume any other hire we made or if Manny was retained that we would’ve had that same commitment to the program infrastructure.

That’s the problem with the University and the Athletic Department…

 

[3FW]

The ACC is an anchor.