MEGA New Miami Adidas Ultraboost🔥 - The Shoe and Nike/Adidas Thread.

[TheOriginalCane]

I love math. Let's use some math! Maybe throw in some context.

Nike running saw roughly 10 to 15% increase in running shoe sales. That article said double digits. Sounds impressive BUT maybe it's not. This is a loss of market share tho because there's a running shoe boom. Shoe and apparel companies are killing it, that aren't named Nike. Adidas saw a gain of 30%. On Cloud is up 50%. Hoka is up anywhere from 30 to 50% currently, they've been averaging 50%. New Balance is up 20-30% and up 180% since 2020. Brooks is up 23% with 9 straight years of increasing sales, especially painful for Nike is they are up over 100% in China, killing them. Skechers is up roughly 18%, but has been taking market share for years. Was hoping for better numbers as I do like Skechers running shoes. Salomon is also up and surprised to see this, 30%. I almost forgot Asics, and yup you guessed it, they are up 23%. So no, nope, nada. Nike is losing market share rapidly. Nike is getting an ever smaller piece of what is overall a growing pie. When or if running shoe demand slows overall Nike is really going to be in trouble.

With numbers like this from its competitors, like are we really gonna be like yeah it's not so bad Nike is down 2% overall? YES ITS VERY BAD. How are you down 2% when most of your competitors are up like 30%?

I need to sell shoes, some of these numbers are insane. Hopefully these people are running and not just wearing comfortable shoes.

Again, you CANNOT simply compare percentages in a vacuum. They are NOT the same.

Up 30%? What's the base? $100K? Yay, that translates to $30K more sales.

Down 2%? What's the base? $50B? Nobody is happy to lose a billion dollars in sales, but they still sold $49B.

ONE SEGMENT worth of sales percentages doesn't tell the whole story. How are On Cloud, Hoka, New Balance, Brooks, Skechers, and Asics doing in basketball shoes? Tennis shoes? Lifestyle shoes? Training shoes? Soccer shoes? Sandals/slides? APPAREL?

I'm not mad, and I'm not a one-brand fanboy, but come on, man, let's look at the total picture.

 

[ShadowSpring]

Bro you've got like 4 or 5 of Nike's competitors seeing 20, 30, 40, sometimes even 50% growth in sales. That data isn't due just to China. There is a running shoe boom, and just cause the numbers don't look so bad for Nike due to that boom, they are still getting clobbered. If you've lost that market share, when the boom is over you will really feel it.

I agree there won't be a funeral. They need to repair relationships with retail shops and release some great products. As I was corrected earlier Nike is still doing well with track athletes etc. When I think of Nike they've always had that in their bag. My opinion is they need to focus on being a true athletic shoe/apparel innovator again.

My brother, I can try to help you with math and statistics, if you are willing.

A competitor's "percentage growth" in sales does NOT correspond to an equal decline in Nike's sales. The reason is the BASE of the comparison.

Thus, if a competitor has $1,000 of sales, and then they grow FIFTY PERCENT, that means they now have $1,500 of sales. But if Nike's sales are $100 million, then they barely notice that they lost $500 of sales. The percentage that Nike "loses" is miniscule.

And that's just in a case where the entire market isn't GROWING. For instance, it's possible for the competitor to have $500 more sales AND for Nike to have more sales.

Never forget the Mark Twain quote about "lies, **** lies, and statistics".

All along, you have treated "sales growth percentages" as being some zero-sum game that harms Nike. And you are citing statistics in one segment of the industry, running shoes. Meanwhile, I haven't heard that these smaller competitors are making similar gains in, say, basketball shoes. Has Hoka or On released a model that competes with the 41 Air Jordan models? Let me know when THAT happens.

I wasn't wrong when I said that Nike has lost a lot of volume AND profit in China. That is absolutely true. And my point doesn't necessarily detract from your points. I'm simply saying that while a few competitors have made inroads in one sneaker segment, the MUCH LARGER VOLUME that Nike sells means that, while annoying, the percentage "drop" on the Nike side isn't nearly as significant TO NIKE.

Statistics are tricky.

Bro. Nike is down 2% last quarter and 7 straight quarters. Their competitors are killing them. Not just in China. Just killing it. These numbers are kinda shocking. I knew it was bad because I'm a runner and I see people aren't wearing Nike like in accustomed my whole life. So going into this I knew I won the argument before I started. It wasn't fair to start. There's nothing else to say about it.

I feel like I've been negative towards what is a great American brand too much. I'm just going to say I hope they get it figured out.

But yeah with AI scaring young folks in the job market, maybe the shoe business is a prime career. Business is booming!

 

[ShadowSpring]

I love math. Let's use some math! Maybe throw in some context.

Nike running saw roughly 10 to 15% increase in running shoe sales. That article said double digits. Sounds impressive BUT maybe it's not. This is a loss of market share tho because there's a running shoe boom. Shoe and apparel companies are killing it, that aren't named Nike. Adidas saw a gain of 30%. On Cloud is up 50%. Hoka is up anywhere from 30 to 50% currently, they've been averaging 50%. New Balance is up 20-30% and up 180% since 2020. Brooks is up 23% with 9 straight years of increasing sales, especially painful for Nike is they are up over 100% in China, killing them. Skechers is up roughly 18%, but has been taking market share for years. Was hoping for better numbers as I do like Skechers running shoes. Salomon is also up and surprised to see this, 30%. I almost forgot Asics, and yup you guessed it, they are up 23%. So no, nope, nada. Nike is losing market share rapidly. Nike is getting an ever smaller piece of what is overall a growing pie. When or if running shoe demand slows overall Nike is really going to be in trouble.

With numbers like this from its competitors, like are we really gonna be like yeah it's not so bad Nike is down 2% overall? YES ITS VERY BAD. How are you down 2% when most of your competitors are up like 30%?

I need to sell shoes, some of these numbers are insane. Hopefully these people are running and not just wearing comfortable shoes.

What’s pumas numbers looking like? I know they’ve capitalized on the Hyrox market. But people scoff at the running but guess what everyone can run and if they buy shoes from those brands, guess what else they’re buying from there clothes too.

Puma is down 5 to 10%. They cut some jobs earlier in the year. I don't know much about that brand. I've only had 1 pair of puma running shoes 7 or 8 years ago, they were pretty good actually.

 

[ShadowSpring]

Anyone tried the Adidas Dropset Pro? This guy is basically saying it's the best shoe on the market in any category and basically the best shoe ever. Saying it does literally everything. I usually catch sales on year old models but I may try these.

 

[Garnacho]

I love math. Let's use some math! Maybe throw in some context.

Nike running saw roughly 10 to 15% increase in running shoe sales. That article said double digits. Sounds impressive BUT maybe it's not. This is a loss of market share tho because there's a running shoe boom. Shoe and apparel companies are killing it, that aren't named Nike. Adidas saw a gain of 30%. On Cloud is up 50%. Hoka is up anywhere from 30 to 50% currently, they've been averaging 50%. New Balance is up 20-30% and up 180% since 2020. Brooks is up 23% with 9 straight years of increasing sales, especially painful for Nike is they are up over 100% in China, killing them. Skechers is up roughly 18%, but has been taking market share for years. Was hoping for better numbers as I do like Skechers running shoes. Salomon is also up and surprised to see this, 30%. I almost forgot Asics, and yup you guessed it, they are up 23%. So no, nope, nada. Nike is losing market share rapidly. Nike is getting an ever smaller piece of what is overall a growing pie. When or if running shoe demand slows overall Nike is really going to be in trouble.

With numbers like this from its competitors, like are we really gonna be like yeah it's not so bad Nike is down 2% overall? YES ITS VERY BAD. How are you down 2% when most of your competitors are up like 30%?

I need to sell shoes, some of these numbers are insane. Hopefully these people are running and not just wearing comfortable shoes.

China is probably the best place to start here and I’ll start with running shoes. First, Brooks is owned by Berkshire and they just entered the China market maybe 4 years ago with close to $0 sales. So 100% growth is pretty bad considering what they are spending. Berkshire was actually asked about this and the CEO said it was a 50 year plan. They have been spending hundreds of millions just to have crumbs in the future. But this and Brooks as a whole, are a rounding error for Berkshire. This is so inconsequential that they don’t even address it in their SEC filings, hence it being addressed at a shareholder weekend.

Anta and Li-Ning are who Nike is in the arena with. These are the ones taking significant market share in China. Anta is also buying distressed Western assets like Puma. This has Nike’s attention.

And Asia is where the action is. Not only is China a massive growing market but there are other potential massive markets that have not even been tapped into yet.

Good for Hoka and On, for doing well in the US running shoe market but the real game is out East

 

[ShadowSpring]

China is probably the best place to start here and I’ll start with running shoes. First, Brooks is owned by Berkshire and they just entered the China market maybe 4 years ago with close to $0 sales. So 100% growth is pretty bad considering what they are spending. Berkshire was actually asked about this and the CEO said it was a 50 year plan. They have been spending hundreds of millions just to have crumbs in the future. But this and Brooks as a whole, are a rounding error for Berkshire. This is so inconsequential that they don’t even address it in their SEC filings, hence it being addressed at a shareholder weekend.

Anta and Li-Ning are who Nike is in the arena with. These are the ones taking significant market share in China. Anta is also buying distressed Western assets like Puma. This has Nike’s attention.

And Asia is where the action is. Not only is China a massive growing market but there are other potential massive markets that have not even been tapped into yet.

Good for Hoka and On, for doing well in the US running shoe market but the real game is out East

You seem to be right. I will add when pulling these numbers i did see consistent growth in the US market but yeah the China and international market as they called it were always higher for just about all of them.

 

[TheOriginalCane]

You seem to be right. I will add when pulling these numbers i did see consistent growth in the US market but yeah the China and international market as they called it were always higher for just about all of them.

And that's all I was trying to say earlier. NOT that the US issues are insignificant, but that the MAJORITY of the financial impact for Nike is due to China COMPANIES (such as Li-Ning and Anta) and the China MARKET (as well as other nearby Asian markets which are heavily linked to China).

It's not about arguing, it's just about getting the right analysis. And whether you are against Nike or not, you initially came out hot with "blackball Nike" and "declining company", so I just want to have a fair and clean picture, because it's nice to have a good working relationship if we ever decide to do business with Nike in the future. Phil Knight won't live forever, and Miami's about to win another 4 or 5 natty's before Oregon ever wins its first.

 

[sedlst11]

Puma is down 5 to 10%. They cut some jobs earlier in the year. I don't know much about that brand. I've only had 1 pair of puma running shoes 7 or 8 years ago, they were pretty good actually.

Try out these for daily runner. They’re very good.

Deviate Pure NITRO™ Men's Running Shoes | PUMA

Deviate Pure NITRO™ Road Running Shoes are ready for training and daily runs with lightweight NITROFOAM™ cushioning and a flexible ride. No plate, just smooth propulsion, so you can pick up the pace when it feels right.

us.puma.com

 

[Garnacho]

Anyone tried the Adidas Dropset Pro? This guy is basically saying it's the best shoe on the market in any category and basically the best shoe ever. Saying it does literally everything. I usually catch sales on year old models but I may try these.

I probably watch most of what he puts out, mainly because I like seeing the shoe cut open. I think he’s great with top to bottom analysis, which is what he’s doing cutting the shoe where he is cutting it - which means I really trust his running shoe analysis. He’s also an unc like myself and stresses unc issues.

FWIW, with basketball shoes I find his analysis on lateral movement to not be as great or at least not fit to my tastes. IMO he’s not the greatest with breaking down the effects of the outrigger and sidewalls or lack there of. I also find a lot of his opinions to not be applicable to youngins as they are not going to have the unc issues. Still essential viewing for me. I watch a lot of shoe review content lol.

 

[MiamisMoperiestMopes]

Brooks or we’re not a serious program.

 

[ShadowSpring]

Brooks or we’re not a serious program.

great running shoes but not too sure how they'd supply UNI's and gear. Maybe they have a contact at TEMU?

 

[No_Fly_Zone]

So then if Nike is going to be OK in the end, I'm less concerned with the "declining" adjective.

Exactly. Even if we assume for the sake of argument that market share and profits are important to the deal, all that matters to us Nike's position for the span of the deal. What happens between two points in time: the effective date and the end of term. Looking at figures closest to the effective date, in 2026 Nike's total revenue was 46.4 billion USD, compared to $29 billion for Adidas.

So if Nike still looms larger today, and we expect they will still loom large by the end of the deal, what the **** are these people even talking about?

 

[No_Fly_Zone]

Your entire argument (not even sure what you are trying to say anymore) seems to rely on the idea that because brands like Hoka and OnCloud have more sales, they are a better product.

(When they don't even have more sales than Nike. Just a greater percentage of sales relative to Nike than they used to have, but still far less overall.)

 

[RVACane]

The test to me is always Walt Disney World and seeing what everyone is wearing

Adults are like 85% at this point HOKA, Brooks, OnCloud, and New Balance

Kids are like 60-70% NIKE 20-30% Adidas

Holy ****, I have hoka and brooks. I’m old!

 

[Angry Ibis]

Holy ****, I have hoka and brooks. I’m old!

They look good with your LuLu and Patagonia.

 

[3rdCanes]

Holy ****, I have hoka and brooks. I’m old!

 

[RVACane]

They look good with your LuLu and Patagonia.

Lol I don’t wear lulu, alo or Beyond Yoga for that matter.

 

[Angry Ibis]

Lol I don’t wear lulu, alo or Beyond Yoga for that matter.

Team Vuori, I see. Livvy Dunne and @RVACane leading the way to athleisure dominance.

 

[ShadowSpring]

Exactly. Even if we assume for the sake of argument that market share and profits are important to the deal, all that matters to us Nike's position for the span of the deal. What happens between two points in time: the effective date and the end of term. Looking at figures closest to the effective date, in 2026 Nike's total revenue was 46.4 billion USD, compared to $29 billion for Adidas.

So if Nike still looms larger today, and we expect they will still loom large by the end of the deal, what the **** are these people even talking about?

So why would Adidas be a bad choice? That's simply my original point. Adidas right now is actually the more exciting/growing brand and could very well be a decade from now. Not a single time anywhere did I ever say Nike would be a bad partner or likely to die. I am upset at the garbage job they did the last time with our UNI's but all that is half joking. I'm sure the entire design team is different now.

Nike's 7 consecutive negative quarters would be useful in a negotiation with a brand like Miami. Hey Nike............show me the $.

Are you a founding member of the CIS Nike fanclub?

 

[Rellyrell]

Most fans and athletes (especially football) prefer Nike. These are facts.

I personally prefer Nike because the fan gear is significantly better and I believe it helps football recruiting.

Regardless, I imagine the school is going to take the more lucrative deal at the end of the day (as they should).

Not that complicated.

If we stay with Adidas that's fine just tell them to stick to the classic uniforms of the last few years and not that BS they had us wearing in 2015.

As I’ve said many times, & those who have been to kickoffs w up close & personal looks can testify, when u place Nike unis next to their competitors, there’s a clear fit difference, even on skinny ***, true FS HS mannequins.