In the past five years, Miami is 7th overall in total draft picks.
This, in a vacuum, is the sign of a healthy program. In the past ten years, Miami has produced more Day 3 picks (36) than anyone in the country by a wide margin. The five teams behind Miami are Georgia, Florida, Oklahoma, Alabama and Clemson. This, too, is normally the sign of a healthy program. The fact that Miami consistently ranks among the top schools in active NFL players suggests that these guys make rosters, which is another good sign.
But as
@Rellyrell and others have pointed out, there's something missing: Top 3 round picks. Miami has only produced four such picks in that time span, which pales in comparison to schools like Bama (36), Ohio State (29) and Clemson (16). This disparity is easy to see when we watch CFB Playoff games.
Some of our Day 3 picks probably should have been Day 2 picks. Our schemes on offense and defense did not highlight their strengths, and many of them left a year too early. But that alone does not explain the lack of high-end, difference-making NFL talent.
The most common explanation is the correct one—we haven’t done a good enough job recruiting locally. National recruiting is critical, especially in a class like 2022 when South Florida is down. But it’s much harder to recruit great players nationally when you aren’t a top program in the country. For young kids, Miami's national reputation is a documentary. Local recruiting, while challenging, is the more realistic problem to solve first.
Our local struggles fall into two categories: evaluation and acquisition. Local evaluation was horrible under Shannon and Golden, and the message boards were often more accurate than our coaches. Richt was better, although Dugans’ preference for big receivers cost us some studs (Moore, Atwell, Flowers) and almost made us miss out on Harley. Diaz seems to be better at offering the right kids but it’s early.
Consider this: Rousseau is the first local, defensive 3* that Miami has put in the first round since Sean Taylor. Five local defensive sleepers went in the first round during that same period. They signed with Ohio State, Georgia, FSU and USF, respectively. It gets worse when you expand it to include offense. From 2006-2020, seven (7) South Florida three stars went in the first round. Only 1 (Dorsett) signed with Miami. Thirteen went in the second round. Miami only got three. Twelve went in the third round. Miami, again, only got three.
Recently, the bigger issue has been acquisition. We’ve been getting beat for studs. We know the names, and there are 100-page threads on all of them. Manny has addressed this two ways: by shifting the recruiting department from an NFL-style, evaluation-oriented operation (led by Doherty) to a group focused on local relationships (led by Cooney, DVD and Pata). More recently, he has hired position coaches like TRob and Aristide to win battles.
The results have been improving. Leonard Taylor, James Williams, Don Chaney and Jaylan Knighton are the types of kids we always missed. Time will tell how this maintains. The hope is that the better recruiting leads to better play on the field and better NFL outcomes, which can be sold to the next generation. Alabama pays for players, but they also sell rings and being the next Amari Cooper/Jerry Jeudy/Calvin Ridley. If Miami has success, it will breed more success.
So let's talk specifics-- what are some realistic goals locally, and how will achieving those goals impact our overall talent level? I went back and looked at Miami's peak of draft classes (2001-2005) and compared it to our past five draft classes (2017-2021). The results were not surprising.
For the 2001-2005 draft classes, South Florida produced 15 first round picks, 5 second round picks and 5 third round picks. Miami signed 64% of these kids, including an amazing 80% of the first rounders.
In the past five draft classes (2017-2021), South Florida has produced 13 first round picks, 8 second round picks and 7 third round picks. Miami has only signed 2 of 28. That's 7%.
It's unrealistic to expect the 2001-2005 numbers in the modern era. There are no sleepers and recruiting has gotten more sophisticated. But if Miami had signed 45% of these kids-- less than half-- it would have a comparable number of Day 1-2 picks to Clemson, UGA and OU while also having a huge volume of Day 3 kids. And once the overall quality of the program improves, it becomes easier to chase big fish nationally.
This isn't really a revolutionary thought or a secret. But it's a good reminder of the path to CFB playoff talent. We need to take care of home base.
