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Miami -6 vs UNC

bigkk69xd said:
-4.5 now wow
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It's pure, distilled SEC slurping. UNC beat a SEC team, Miami lost to a SEC team, therefore UNC can beat Miami.

Let's pretend that in our game vs UF, on the very last play of the game Williams threw a hail Mary and it bounced off a UF players helmet and was caught for a TD, Miami wins 27-24. Everything else is exactly the same- same # of sacks, drops, etc. Only difference is by sheer dumb luck Miami wins. The line for this game is suddenly - 11.5 Miami. Miami beat a top 10 SEC team and is a juggernaut, even though the only difference was a fluke catch at the end. The line at -4.5 is simply SEC buttlove at its finest. Great for bettors though.
 
TimeB0mb said:
It's pure, distilled SEC slurping. UNC beat a SEC team, Miami lost to a SEC team, therefore UNC can beat Miami.

Let's pretend that in our game vs UF, on the very last play of the game Williams threw a hail Mary and it bounced off a UF players helmet and was caught for a TD, Miami wins 27-24. Everything else is exactly the same- same # of sacks, drops, etc. Only difference is by sheer dumb luck Miami wins. The line for this game is suddenly - 11.5 Miami. Miami beat a top 10 SEC team and is a juggernaut, even though the only difference was a fluke catch at the end. The line at -4.5 is simply SEC buttlove at its finest. Great for bettors though.
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Good point but that -11.5 point line would have been just as deceiving as -4.5. We are playing a decent team , at night ,at their home stadium who is confident after a big win. We have the talent advantage and an extra week to prepare and should be the fav. -6 to -7 is about right for this game.
 
TimeB0mb said:
I am curious about your assessment of the program. Hypothetically, let's that Miami switched coaching staffs with Oklahoma for the game. Instead of Diaz, we had Riley as HC.

Same players, different staff. Do you think it's a close game? I don't.
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Kind of an extreme example, but I'll play. I think Lincoln Riley is the best coordinator in the country, so no, I don't think the game would be particularly close if we had his offensive staff here with these kids. But since we don't and he's MILES better than Dan Enos, it will probably be a close game.
 
TimeB0mb said:
It's pure, distilled SEC slurping. UNC beat a SEC team, Miami lost to a SEC team, therefore UNC can beat Miami.

Let's pretend that in our game vs UF, on the very last play of the game Williams threw a hail Mary and it bounced off a UF players helmet and was caught for a TD, Miami wins 27-24. Everything else is exactly the same- same # of sacks, drops, etc. Only difference is by sheer dumb luck Miami wins. The line for this game is suddenly - 11.5 Miami. Miami beat a top 10 SEC team and is a juggernaut, even though the only difference was a fluke catch at the end. The line at -4.5 is simply SEC buttlove at its finest. Great for bettors though.
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You don't have the slightest clue how lines work. No offense at all, just stating a fact. This is as clueless a post about the betting market as can possibly be made.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
You don't have the slightest clue how lines work. No offense at all, just stating a fact. This is as clueless a post about the betting market as can possibly be made.
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Disagree. If we had beaten the #8 team in the country with the painted scenario, no way this game would be -4.5 right now. It would not be -11 either but somewhere in the middle, yes.
 
South Side Chi Cane said:
Both points are equally important. There is an article out there that ACC refs are the most prone to let their bias hit the field, and that the calls favor the Tobacco Road teams.
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The fact that there is an article on it is absurd. The leagues been exposed on its officiating for years now both on the field on live tv and in articles and nothing is done.
 
Novacane32000 said:
Disagree. If we had beaten the #8 team in the country with the painted scenario, no way this game would be -4.5 right now. It would not be -11 either but somewhere in the middle, yes.
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I didn't say it'd be 4.5 I said insinuating the line would be a TD different simply if Miami had 1 play go their way against UF is literally as uninformed as it gets. If he'd have said the line would have been Miami -73 it wouldn't have been more ridiculous than what he said. Again, that's not how this works.
 
Poptimus said:
I wish I knew, too, I’d quit my job. It’s the same way some portfolio managers are able to analyze companies or macroeconomic conditions and correctly pick stocks. They don’t win all the time, but they win more often than not. This video shows how one guy did it for years:

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People are mocking your posts but it’s dead on, there’s small group of professional gamblers that move the lines. They know way more than the average better.
 
rokulika said:
3-4 at UNC since 04

Average margin of victory in those 3 wins : 5 pts

Number of times Miami fans predicted a blowout win: 7 times
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Well that's not true, we were gunna be blown out in 2015 no matter what with Doritos
 
A lot of you talk like you know sports betting and line movements at all. Early line movements mean nothing. What that is is people with no clue what they're doing overreacting to a UNC win over USCe. If you want to do anything based on line movements (dated system), go ahead and wait until 5 minutes before kick to get an accurate reading of what the money thinks.

The most important thing to note in this game as far as betting is concerned is something known as "The Spot." UNC is coming off a surprise win and probably feeling confident and have far less urgency than this Miami team who has done nothing but sit around these 2 weeks hungry to just hit something/someone. It's a phenomenon that Bear and Stanford Steve rode to an insane pick of the week record over the past few years.

I expect Miami to be that pick this week, take that -4.5 while you can get it.
 
Cribby said:
People are mocking your posts but it’s dead on, there’s small group of professional gamblers that move the lines. They know way more than the average better.
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It’s all good, you’ve got some ignorant folks who think just because they’ve always lost money sports gambling, it’s impossible for a select few to make millions at it. It’s still very early for this line to maybe reverse, but even if it does close at -4 or -4.5 and we win by 10, some will say this is proof line moves don’t matter. These sharps still only win ~60% of the time over very large sample sizes, not one game. But when they don’t, they’re usually pretty close to covering.
 
Kendall Boy Cane said:
A lot of you talk like you know sports betting and line movements at all. Early line movements mean nothing. What that is is people with no clue what they're doing overreacting to a UNC win over USCe. If you want to do anything based on line movements (dated system), go ahead and wait until 5 minutes before kick to get an accurate reading of what the money thinks.

The most important thing to note in this game as far as betting is concerned is something known as "The Spot." UNC is coming off a surprise win and probably feeling confident and have far less urgency than this Miami team who has done nothing but sit around these 2 weeks hungry to just hit something/someone. It's a phenomenon that Bear and Stanford Steve rode to an insane pick of the week record over the past few years.

I expect Miami to be that pick this week, take that -4.5 while you can get it.
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Smart betters come in late.
 
The Franchise said:
What is it that makes UNC such a formidable opponent? Is it the true freshman QB? The 80 year old bust of a HC who flopped at his last job 6 years ago? Their 3 wins last year?

Please tell us why we shouldn’t expect to beat a team that we’ve so severely outrecruited.
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I’m not saying we shouldn't be expecting to win, I’m saying that the sharps from around the nation are not selecting us as the lock of the week if the line goes below a certain number. There’s way too many unknowns with this team to take anything for granted and there are much better picks elsewhere in CFB.
 
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