Agreed. The original move to UNC appears to be a setup, which makes sense. Nobody was in a rush to hammer UNC +6 first thing on Tuesday the week of the game, give me a break. They’d likely have bet Miami early to try and get UNC +7 on some misdirection.
It was another 1.5 point jump in the line. Went from -3.5 to -5 without going to -4 or -4.5. Sharp money, for sure. And no, if anyone is wondering, it wasn’t the same amount of money that caused the 1.5 point move to UNC that just moved it 1.5 points in our favor.
It's just differing forces at play. Very familiar especially at this time of year. The steady money was on North Carolina. That is ungrouped money but all with the same general subjective opinion, reacting to North Carolina's victory.
But some major influential betting groups play at midday Thursday Las Vegas time. I have mentioned this for years. I mentioned it in this thread early in the week. I posted that the line might drift down further from the -4.5 but the two variables at hand were that the huge groups can shift some numbers wildly on Thursday, and also that the late money on this game would probably be on the Canes due to that well known trend of teams faring poorly as home underdogs if they won outright as underdogs the following week. I prefer it as home underdog to home underdog again but some of the groups also play that trend if a team won as road underdog and now is home underdog.
Bottom line, home underdogs lose their value if they pulled a surprise the game before. Obviously not every time but this is a more often than not realm.
I really wish the groups would have left this game alone today. There was potential for slight further shift downward. Then the late money would have stormed in on the Canes on Saturday. Now it is much more difficult to predict the line movement, once that sharp group has already hammered away on Thursday.
When I was a regular in town I had friends who worked for the huge groups. So I often was tipped off to the games slightly ahead of time. They might show me a list of 5-10 games they were getting ready to play, along with the numbers they were looking for. For example, in this game the order on the sheet might have been Miami -4. That tells every runner to grab the Canes for as much as they can, as long as the spread is -4 or better. Once the spots are getting hit by those groups they move quickly, often 1 point at a time. That's why the shifts happen in a flash, even if it is 1.5 points. The books aren't going to risk cautious moves of 1/2 point at a time when the source of the money is someone they respect.
These days I have far fewer connections and no clue which teams they will wager on. I just know the timetable is the same. Wednesdays are calm but lots can change in a hurry on Thursdays.
