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Excellent analysis. Also not taken into account is when the offense turns the ball over giving opponents a short field.
VT 2019 is the poster boy opponent for this.
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Excellent analysis. Also not taken into account is when the offense turns the ball over giving opponents a short field.
“Where is Dan?” OMG we just got Alabama’s next OC AND TATE MARTELL! I can’t wait to see MOTION and not all GO routes on 3rd and 5... our offense will help or D dominate even more... wait... wrong year...
Lol. Man I want to believe again and I am optimistic but pretty sure I felt the exact same way last year in June...
I agree with you. And Jarrod W is much more proven then Kennedy wasLast year was blind hope. This year we have a guy who has been a recent oc that actually produced.
I'm with you...
But our OC this year has actually had success as an OC.
The same goes for the QB, to the tune of 80 more TD's and 6,500 more yards than his transfer QB predecessor.
I think we'll consistently go above 30 with Lashlee. But I've also noticed that when we do generate an offense, our defense often has letdowns. The VT and FIU games last year, for example. We were up in the 4th vs. Florida and UNC, for example. We started coming back late vs FIU, and our defense collapsed.
We rarely fire on all engines. So, tbh, I'm just as worried about our defense as our offense. Baker does not inspire confidence.
We need the team that dominated Notre Dame in 2017 to show up regularly in 2021. No gimmicks or Cover-0 double blitzing, just straight out overpowering the opponent.
Lol Brodie no game 1 in any sport Tells u **** ...you know how confident most our fans were after game 1 vs UF..Imo we won’t know what until that trip to East Lansing and how that team handles thatexcuses and expectations have to stop.
Game one against temple will tell us what we have.
if we are anywhere near a playoff team then the box and scoreboard will let us know.
mid the stats and final are indicative of what a really good team does to a team like temple then we have a good argument to make. If it’s tight at halftime then the season is gonna be rough.
I’m convinced jarren Williams might’ve been hung over in that gameDid you watch the FIU game? We had 3 points through 3Q
Your words are “game one in any sport tells you sht”Lol Brodie no game 1 in any sport Tells u **** ...you know how confident most our fans were after game 1 vs UF..Imo we won’t know what until that trip to East Lansing and how that team handles that
I’m convinced jarren Williams might’ve been hung over in that game
In the grand scheme, yes. Simply because it’s a small sample size. You don’t prove anything by dominating a inferior opponent. Especially week 1..but you go up to East Lansing and dominate MSU or get dominated, that tells you way more..a healthy Miami team game 1 won’t lose to temple Let’s throw that out the window..if we beat Temple 48-10 or something like that I won’t be screaming we back. If we win a game 35-17 I won’t be screaming for mannys job either..but if we go up to East Lansing and dominate them then we have a better reason for optimismYour words are “game one in any sport tells you sht”
By that logic, losing to temple at home will mean the same thing as blowing them out due to the fact that it’s the first game of the season.
I’ll say this Enos was not the main issue vs FIU..but he never adjusted to having a JV offensive line eitherI'm convinced Enos was smoking crack all season
Thanks for the breakdown.We do this thread pretty much every offseason, but I saw some stuff on Twitter and wanted to dive into some numbers on what we can hopefully expect if we get the offense a lot of us think we will with Lashlee and King.
I went back and scrubbed every game since Manny has been here, and while this isn't a perfect metric (what is, really?), it's a good indicator of what we need to do on offense, and how realistic those levels are. I removed all non-offensive TDs given up, and looked at points surrendered by the defense only. Again, it's not perfect, because against LSU for example, they scored 26 points on offense, which is not a horrendous defensive performance. But they took their foot off the gas at halftime essentially, so could they have scored more? Possibly. But I went with the numbers as they are....what has the defense actually given up?
Miami has played 52 games with Manny Diaz on the sidelines. Of those 52, Miami has given up 30+ defensive points 8 times:
2016 @ VT (37)
2016 @ ND (30)
2017 vs Toledo (30)
2017 vs Clemson (37)
2017 vs Wisconsin (34)
2018 vs Wisconsin (35)
2019 vs VT (42)
2019 vs FIU (30)
Now....we've lost 20 games with Manny here. This means that we lost 12 games in 4 seasons where the defense did not give up 30 points or more. That SHOULD NOT happen in college football. Why? Because the game is now an offensive explosion every Saturday. Take a look at how many FBS teams AVERAGED 30 points the past 4 seasons:
2016 -- 50
2017 -- 46
2018 -- 42
2019 -- 47
That's well over a third of teams average 30 a clip. By the way, Miami did average 31.3 a game in 2016 (Hi, Brad Kaaya), and in the 3 years since, have averaged 28.1, 24.8, and bottoming out at 22.6 last season. Just....awful.
So, can Lashlee and King get us 30 a week? AKA, can we just be in the upper third of the country in offense? I think, as we say every year, that is the magic number. I think if we look back in December, and Miami has averaged 30+ a week, I really believe we're sitting at 10-2 or better. The evidence is there. Say what you want about Manny and Baker, I don't think anyone is screaming that it's the best defense in the country, but it's more than adequate to navigate our schedule year after year. The offense (and special teams) haven't held up their end of the bargain week in and week out.
BTW...SMU ranked 5th in the country last year at 41.8 a game. If we get anywhere close to that number, we're literally waltzing to Charlotte and possibly into a NY6 bowl.
My point is defenses tend to put up better numbers when the offense plays at a snail's pace. Let's see if the defense remains the same with this new fast paced offense. I suggest the defense will suffer some this year. I'm hopeful that the better offense will outweigh that, and the team overall will be better.
Then, of course, we have the intangibles (i.e., Manure's abysmal failure as a leader of men) that aren't accounted for with stat analysis. You can talk stats all day, but there's never any excuse for a Miami program to lose the games we lost last year regardless of the OC. When you're losing to FIU, GT, Puke, and La Tech, then the problems run much deeper than the OC. We should win those game with you as the OC if it's only a stats thing.
We do this thread pretty much every offseason, but I saw some stuff on Twitter and wanted to dive into some numbers on what we can hopefully expect if we get the offense a lot of us think we will with Lashlee and King.
I went back and scrubbed every game since Manny has been here, and while this isn't a perfect metric (what is, really?), it's a good indicator of what we need to do on offense, and how realistic those levels are. I removed all non-offensive TDs given up, and looked at points surrendered by the defense only. Again, it's not perfect, because against LSU for example, they scored 26 points on offense, which is not a horrendous defensive performance. But they took their foot off the gas at halftime essentially, so could they have scored more? Possibly. But I went with the numbers as they are....what has the defense actually given up?
Miami has played 52 games with Manny Diaz on the sidelines. Of those 52, Miami has given up 30+ defensive points 8 times:
2016 @ VT (37)
2016 @ ND (30)
2017 vs Toledo (30)
2017 vs Clemson (37)
2017 vs Wisconsin (34)
2018 vs Wisconsin (35)
2019 vs VT (42)
2019 vs FIU (30)
Now....we've lost 20 games with Manny here. This means that we lost 12 games in 4 seasons where the defense did not give up 30 points or more. That SHOULD NOT happen in college football. Why? Because the game is now an offensive explosion every Saturday. Take a look at how many FBS teams AVERAGED 30 points the past 4 seasons:
2016 -- 50
2017 -- 46
2018 -- 42
2019 -- 47
That's well over a third of teams average 30 a clip. By the way, Miami did average 31.3 a game in 2016 (Hi, Brad Kaaya), and in the 3 years since, have averaged 28.1, 24.8, and bottoming out at 22.6 last season. Just....awful.
So, can Lashlee and King get us 30 a week? AKA, can we just be in the upper third of the country in offense? I think, as we say every year, that is the magic number. I think if we look back in December, and Miami has averaged 30+ a week, I really believe we're sitting at 10-2 or better. The evidence is there. Say what you want about Manny and Baker, I don't think anyone is screaming that it's the best defense in the country, but it's more than adequate to navigate our schedule year after year. The offense (and special teams) haven't held up their end of the bargain week in and week out.
BTW...SMU ranked 5th in the country last year at 41.8 a game. If we get anywhere close to that number, we're literally waltzing to Charlotte and possibly into a NY6 bowl.
I expect the same. My reservation is Manure as a leader of men. If he repeats or even comes close to repeating his abysmal failure as a leader last year, then we'll likely see much better numbers offensively, but we'll still find ways to lose and no show and quit and not rise to the occasion. Then, goofballs will go right back to the "the offense (or defense) was good enough to win, but the defense (or offense) killed us" rap that they've been doing for 15 years now.
I give Manny and the defense **** sometimes but if we can average around 35 PPG we should go undefeated.
But...
I'm as excited about the offense as everybody else, but from my experience it takes a little longer to get that side of the ball rolling when a new staff comes in. Fortunately we have a proven senior at QB who's played in the spread, so the learning curve shouldn't be much to overcome.
It's crazy that in 2018 we gave up 30 defensive points only one time (in the bowl game) and still managed to go 7-6.
In our 6 losses, we scored more than 17 points ONCE (21 @ GT). It's no secret that our offense has been our downfall these past 2 years. Hopefully Lashlee can find the keys to a capable offense, because capable may be all we need.