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Manny with an offense

OrangeBowlMagic

OrangeBowlMagic

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We do this thread pretty much every offseason, but I saw some stuff on Twitter and wanted to dive into some numbers on what we can hopefully expect if we get the offense a lot of us think we will with Lashlee and King.

I went back and scrubbed every game since Manny has been here, and while this isn't a perfect metric (what is, really?), it's a good indicator of what we need to do on offense, and how realistic those levels are. I removed all non-offensive TDs given up, and looked at points surrendered by the defense only. Again, it's not perfect, because against LSU for example, they scored 26 points on offense, which is not a horrendous defensive performance. But they took their foot off the gas at halftime essentially, so could they have scored more? Possibly. But I went with the numbers as they are....what has the defense actually given up?

Miami has played 52 games with Manny Diaz on the sidelines. Of those 52, Miami has given up 30+ defensive points 8 times:

2016 @ VT (37)
2016 @ ND (30)
2017 vs Toledo (30)
2017 vs Clemson (37)
2017 vs Wisconsin (34)
2018 vs Wisconsin (35)
2019 vs VT (42)
2019 vs FIU (30)

Now....we've lost 20 games with Manny here. This means that we lost 12 games in 4 seasons where the defense did not give up 30 points or more. That SHOULD NOT happen in college football. Why? Because the game is now an offensive explosion every Saturday. Take a look at how many FBS teams AVERAGED 30 points the past 4 seasons:

2016 -- 50
2017 -- 46
2018 -- 42
2019 -- 47

That's well over a third of teams average 30 a clip. By the way, Miami did average 31.3 a game in 2016 (Hi, Brad Kaaya), and in the 3 years since, have averaged 28.1, 24.8, and bottoming out at 22.6 last season. Just....awful.

So, can Lashlee and King get us 30 a week? AKA, can we just be in the upper third of the country in offense? I think, as we say every year, that is the magic number. I think if we look back in December, and Miami has averaged 30+ a week, I really believe we're sitting at 10-2 or better. The evidence is there. Say what you want about Manny and Baker, I don't think anyone is screaming that it's the best defense in the country, but it's more than adequate to navigate our schedule year after year. The offense (and special teams) haven't held up their end of the bargain week in and week out.

BTW...SMU ranked 5th in the country last year at 41.8 a game. If we get anywhere close to that number, we're literally waltzing to Charlotte and possibly into a NY6 bowl.
 
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One side note on the LSU game. I think the 26 points is a good indicator to use, as you pointed out that they took their foot off the gas, but their offense was given AMAZING field position all night because of our offensive offense. I would call it a wash.
 
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Zombie-Cane said:
One side note on the LSU game. I think the 26 points is a good indicator to use, as you pointed out that they took their foot off the gas, but their offense was given AMAZING field position all night because of our offensive offense. I would call it a wash.
Click to expand...

Yep. But you've got to draw the line somewhere. That's why I said it's not a perfect discussion, every game stands on its own 2 feet. The redzone defense was awful against VT last year too, but it sure doesn't help when your offense turns the ball over on its first 5 possessions of a game. So, this is probably the best we can do with the data we have. But surely, it doesn't tell the entire story. Each game has a unique flow.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Yep. But you've got to draw the line somewhere. That's why I said it's not a perfect discussion, every game stands on its own 2 feet. The redzone defense was awful against VT last year too, but it sure doesn't help when your offense turns the ball over on its first 5 possessions of a game. So, this is probably the best we can do with the data we have. But surely, it doesn't tell the entire story. Each game has a unique flow.
Click to expand...

Agreed, overall a **** good analysis and write up. Thank you for the good read.
 
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I think most reasonable fans can see that while the defense was not great by any stretch, it was the offense and special teams that cost us most games last year. Even the bowl game was a glaring example of that.

I think Manny did a good job addressing those issues over the off season. What's left is to play the games and see what happens. But no reason not to feel pretty optimistic.
 
Zombie-Cane said:
One side note on the LSU game. I think the 26 points is a good indicator to use, as you pointed out that they took their foot off the gas, but their offense was given AMAZING field position all night because of our offensive offense. I would call it a wash.
Click to expand...
not only our offensive ineptitude, lets not forget the miserable punting display the years the Feagle kid was here
 
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It's crazy that in 2018 we gave up 30 defensive points only one time (in the bowl game) and still managed to go 7-6.

In our 6 losses, we scored more than 17 points ONCE (21 @ GT). It's no secret that our offense has been our downfall these past 2 years. Hopefully Lashlee can find the keys to a capable offense, because capable may be all we need.
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
Yep. But you've got to draw the line somewhere. That's why I said it's not a perfect discussion, every game stands on its own 2 feet. The redzone defense was awful against VT last year too, but it sure doesn't help when your offense turns the ball over on its first 5 possessions of a game. So, this is probably the best we can do with the data we have. But surely, it doesn't tell the entire story. Each game has a unique flow.
Click to expand...
The more we scratch the surface the more festering of the offensive sore happens. May Lashlee be our remedy ..
 
PoppaTop said:
It's crazy that in 2018 we gave up 30 defensive points only one time (in the bowl game) and still managed to go 7-6.

In our 6 losses, we scored more than 17 points ONCE (21 @ GT). It's no secret that our offense has been our downfall these past 2 years. Hopefully Lashlee can find the keys to a capable offense, because capable may be all we need.
Click to expand...

Great stat. That is completely insane.

Let's not forget too that in 2018 we were 105th in the country in punting, to go along with 84th in the country in offensive YPP and 89th in scoring.

So you can't move the ball, you don't score, and when you fail at both of those and need to punt, you absolutely suck something fierce.

Not exactly the best recipe for winning.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
We do this thread pretty much every offseason, but I saw some stuff on Twitter and wanted to dive into some numbers on what we can hopefully expect if we get the offense a lot of us think we will with Lashlee and King.

I went back and scrubbed every game since Manny has been here, and while this isn't a perfect metric (what is, really?), it's a good indicator of what we need to do on offense, and how realistic those levels are. I removed all non-offensive TDs given up, and looked at points surrendered by the defense only. Again, it's not perfect, because against LSU for example, they scored 26 points on offense, which is not a horrendous defensive performance. But they took their foot off the gas at halftime essentially, so could they have scored more? Possibly. But I went with the numbers as they are....what has the defense actually given up?

Miami has played 52 games with Manny Diaz on the sidelines. Of those 52, Miami has given up 30+ defensive points 8 times:

2016 @ VT (37)
2016 @ ND (30)
2017 vs Toledo (30)
2017 vs Clemson (37)
2017 vs Wisconsin (34)
2018 vs Wisconsin (35)
2019 vs VT (42)
2019 vs FIU (30)

Now....we've lost 20 games with Manny here. This means that we lost 12 games in 4 seasons where the defense did not give up 30 points or more. That SHOULD NOT happen in college football. Why? Because the game is now an offensive explosion every Saturday. Take a look at how many FBS teams AVERAGED 30 points the past 4 seasons:

2016 -- 50
2017 -- 46
2018 -- 42
2019 -- 47

That's well over a third of teams average 30 a clip. By the way, Miami did average 31.3 a game in 2016 (Hi, Brad Kaaya), and in the 3 years since, have averaged 28.1, 24.8, and bottoming out at 22.6 last season. Just....awful.

So, can Lashlee and King get us 30 a week? AKA, can we just be in the upper third of the country in offense? I think, as we say every year, that is the magic number. I think if we look back in December, and Miami has averaged 30+ a week, I really believe we're sitting at 10-2 or better. The evidence is there. Say what you want about Manny and Baker, I don't think anyone is screaming that it's the best defense in the country, but it's more than adequate to navigate our schedule year after year. The offense (and special teams) haven't held up their end of the bargain week in and week out.

BTW...SMU ranked 5th in the country last year at 41.8 a game. If we get anywhere close to that number, we're literally waltzing to Charlotte and possibly into a NY6 bowl.
Click to expand...
i bash manny but like i always say, his defense is good enough to win in todays game. Okalahoma has been trash on defense and still makes playoffs.
 
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