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LSU 2020 v Bama 2021 (long)

supacane said:
First off all who said anything about 5 years ago. Im talking about a similar situation with similar caliber teams that happened the past 2 seasons. LSU didnt have a perfect storm, all those years they had dumb *** Les Miles who was trying to play 1980 football while college football was changing, much like we have been doing before we got Lashlee. Orgeron made the changes to bring their offense up to speed, Orgeron went and got Burrow. It took them a season to fully install the offense. They didn't luck into it. Then they lost their #1 Heisman QB and the OC basically and almost all their offense and defense and DC and you know the rest. It's alot of the similar changes Diaz is making on and off the field. And i have been tough on him when he had Enos and Rumph etc. So if we now start seeing the results on the field am not gonna say he lucked into it, he made those changes to correct problems.

All am saying is this narrative that we don't have a chance and only because it Bama is dumb when i look at actual facts. I don't care how many season openers he won. They Broke Francois leg and the game finished 24-7. 17 points after taking out the starting Qb. How many wins did FSU finish on btw?
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The situation is somewhat similar as far as losing the majority of the O and its coordinator but the teams are nowhere near the same caliber. Yes LSU recruits really well but at no point in time over the past ten years have they reloaded year after year after year like Alabama. I get the optimism from the standpoint that they are replacing a lot. However, this program isn't LSU and they aren't going to regress that way.

LSU's title team is the exception to the norm for their program. Alabama having a season like LSU did last year would be an extreme exception to the norm for them.

You keep mentioning the talent differences between the teams LSU struggled against last are similar to the talent difference between us and Alabama but your forgetting one key thing in all of this and that is Nick Saban. LSU was poorly coached last year and their play on the field reflected it. Name me one time you have looked at a single unit on any of Saban's Alabama teams and thought they were poorly coached.
 
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And I never said Miami doesn't have a chance. I just said your statement that comparing total!y different teams result in a similar future situation because one time they had a similar result doesn't make sense when none of the people are the same and one team has produced that result without many times without the consequences that other team had the next season. Alabama replaces great players every year and staff almost every year. Alabama lost 3 games one time since Nick Sabans second year at Bama. LSU was a dumpster fire last year. Nick Saban is the constant. His results speak for themselves
 
CrooKs said:
The situation is somewhat similar as far as losing the majority of the O and its coordinator but the teams are nowhere near the same caliber. Yes LSU recruits really well but at no point in time over the past ten years have they reloaded year after year after year like Alabama. I get the optimism from the standpoint that they are replacing a lot. However, this program isn't LSU and they aren't going to regress that way.

LSU's title team is the exception to the norm for their program. Alabama having a season like LSU did last year would be an extreme exception to the norm for them.

You keep mentioning the talent differences between the teams LSU struggled against last are similar to the talent difference between us and Alabama but your forgetting one key thing in all of this and that is Nick Saban. LSU was poorly coached last year and their play on the field reflected it. Name me one time you have looked at a single unit on any of Saban's Alabama teams and thought they were poorly coached.
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Do you think LSU would have been that bad last season if they kept all the coaches and lost the players they did?
 
BamaEaston said:
And I never said Miami doesn't have a chance. I just said your statement that comparing total!y different teams result in a similar future situation because one time they had a similar result doesn't make sense when none of the people are the same and one team has produced that result without many times without the consequences that other team had the next season. Alabama replaces great players every year and staff almost every year. Alabama lost 3 games one time since Nick Sabans second year at Bama. LSU was a dumpster fire last year. Nick Saban is the constant. His results speak for themselves
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That's the point I am trying to get across. We (Miami) may very well win this game and I actually like our chances better than most people however to hang your hopes on some parallel between 2020 LSU and 2021 Alabama isn't smart.
 
Yeah. I guess its hard to evaluate a teams play when you don't watch every game. Many good teams with talented players come out on fire against Bama. They're as rested as the Bama players and many of the plays were scripted. Then Alabamas talent most of the time imposes its will later in the game.
That was jalen hurts and that offense was average at best. Sloppy first game and it really wasn't close.
 
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supacane said:
Do you think LSU would have been that bad last season if they kept all the coaches and lost the players they did?
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I don't think they would have been as bad because Joe Brady can scheme with the best of them. Burrow had one of the best QB season we have ever seen, maybe the best and a good majority of that is due to Brady and the WR's he had around him. It all came together perfectly for that ONE season. The point is Alabama does this EVERY year, with EVERY QB, EVERY RB, EVERY group of WR's, and EVERY set of coaches.
 
CrooKs said:
I don't think they would have been as bad because Joe Brady can scheme with the best of them. Burrow had one of the best QB season we have ever seen, maybe the best and a good majority of that is due to Brady and the WR's he had around him. It all came together perfectly for that ONE season. The point is Alabama does this EVERY year, with EVERY QB, EVERY RB, EVERY group of WR's, and EVERY set of coaches.
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This is simply false. They have never had to make so many changes on one side of the ball in one offseason. Never and not installing and FR QB. Its just not true
 
And the main point with the coaching staff turnover parallel between LSU and Alabama. Or lack thereof. Orgeron had really good coordinators who ran their offense/defense. Coordinators at Bama run Alabama's O and D. Yes they are given some leeway to call their plays but ultimately its the system Bama has in p!ace.
that's the difference
 
CrooKs said:
That's the point I am trying to get across. We (Miami) may very well win this game and I actually like our chances better than most people however to hang your hopes on some parallel between 2020 LSU and 2021 Alabama isn't smart.
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Ok let me get this str8. Im saying we have a chance because they are making all these changes all at the same time and we are getting them to open the season. And you are saying we do have a chance but the changes wont matter. Ok what exactly is your basis of saying we do have a chance?
 
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supacane said:
This is simply false. They have never had to make so many changes on one side of the ball in one offseason. Never and not installing and FR QB. Its just not true
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No they don't replace everything every year, but they have a really good to great offense every year. It hasn't made a difference who the qb, rb, wr, ol, te or coaches are. It isn't going to make a difference this year either. You're grasping at straws if you think this years team is setup to be as bad on O as LSU was last year just because they lost similar talent and a bunch of coaches.
 
That's not what he was saying at all. He actually said he liked your chances. He said the parallels you made between LSU and Bama didn't make sense because of past results.
 
CrooKs said:
No they don't replace everything every year, but they have a really good to great offense every year. It hasn't made a difference who the qb, rb, wr, ol, te or coaches are. It isn't going to make a difference this year either. You're grasping at straws if you think this years team is setup to be as bad on O as LSU was last year just because they lost similar talent and a bunch of coaches.
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im not talking about this year. ahaha im talking about this game, the season opener.....
 
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supacane said:
Ok let me get this str8. Im saying we have a chance because they are making all these changes all at the same time and we are getting them to open the season. And you are saying we do have a chance but the changes wont matter. Ok what exactly is your basis of saying we do have a chance?
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No you started this thread saying that this years Alabama is going to be like last years LSU and that is all I'm arguing with you. Yes the changes are going to matter and no I don't expect Alabama to replace pretty much their whole offense and not miss a beat. However, they are not going to suffer near the decline that LSU suffered last year. Their program is built different.

I believe we have a chance because we have a veteran o-line that has better personnel than last year. A really good QB in his second year in the system with an offensive coordinator that has been through the fire with Alabama and knows what it takes to beat them. King is also the kind of QB that has historically given Saban's defenses trouble. I expect our D to be improved from where it was last year Manny taking back over coordinating duties as well.

LSU coming out and ****ting the bed last year will have no correlation to how good or bad Alabama is this year.
 
BamaEaston said:
And he is right
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You cannot point to a situation with all the ingredients they have on offense this offseason and you are a Bama fan. Its just not happened. Your argument at this point is its Saban. Mindless non thought out points like Finebaum does. I remember them saying the same thing about Bellicheck......and then Tom brady left.
 
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CrooKs said:
No you started this thread saying that this years Alabama is going to be like last years LSU and that is all I'm arguing with you. Yes the changes are going to matter and no I don't expect Alabama to replace pretty much their whole offense and not miss a beat. However, they are not going to suffer near the decline that LSU suffered last year. Their program is built different.

I believe we have a chance because we have a veteran o-line that has better personnel than last year. A really good QB in his second year in the system with an offensive coordinator that has been through the fire with Alabama and knows what it takes to beat them. King is also the kind of QB that has historically given Saban's defenses trouble. I expect our D to be improved from where it was last year Manny taking back over coordinating duties as well.

LSU coming out and ****ting the bed last year will have no correlation to how good or bad Alabama is this year.
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All those thing you pointed out about our team would not mattered much if this game was mid season or later. Sorry. Also i never said they would decline LSU, LSU had the changes on both sides of the ball. Also they don't need to decline like LSU as we are better than the teams that beat them. So its not necessary for us to stand a chance of upsetting them.
 
supacane said:
You cannot point to a situation with all the ingredients they have on offense this offseason and you are a Bama fan. Its just not happened. Your argument at this point is its Saban. Mindless non thought out points like Finebaum does. I remember them saying the same thing about Bellicheck......and then Tom brady left.
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Big difference, they never had to replace Brady in New England. Alabama replaces a star QB every two years and the next guy has played as well or better each and every time. This comparison is apples to oranges
 
supacane said:
Bama has more talent, but my point is, you cant say LSU was losing those games because of talent. The gap between LSU and the teams who beat them is the same or bigger than the gap between us and Bama imo. The gap between LSU and Miss St is almost 200 composite points on 247, with Mizzou, its almost 300 points. Those may have been bigger or smaller last season. The gap between Bama and us is just about 150. How much of that is closed by our experience and their new coaches and systems etc? Im predicting much of it.

It seems all yall look at is the talent composite so lets discuss. Clemson and LSU are nearly identical, why is LSU a only 4 point favorite at UCLA? UGA is #2 in talent composite why is Clemson favored? We have a better talent composite to UNC, why did they drag us at home last season? UF is #8 and we are #13, who would you bet on to win a game with us a them right now? Even OU has over a 100 point talent deficit on Bama and people are picking them to win the NT, Bama has 1004, OU.....896, us.....848. So OU is using a 48 point advantage over us to be considered a potential national champion. The favorite for our division in most people eyes....UNC, we have the same advantage over them as OU has over us, 50 points, they have 798. You know who is just ahead of us in talent...ND, 5 points, 853. Know what they did last season? play in the ACC made the playoffs. If Diaz had a record or showing up in the big games, i would outright pick us to win the ACC and give Bama all they can handle. Its all laid out there, he made coaching changes which makes me feel we are going to close the gaps on some of these teams. i really believe it.
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You're right. It's not all about talent. It's also about coaching - development, game planning, in-game adjustments, motivation.

Those things doesn't help your case lol. Bama has a proven track record of being great at those things, while we have a track of stinking in those areas.

The only advantage we have vs. Bama is experience. That matters, but I rather have the (huge) talent advantage and Saban, than the experience advantage and Manny.

And I hope this is the game where things turn around for Manny. I really do. I think he has potential to be a Dabo-type coach. But we can't ignore how terribly we've played in big games under him. Against the three best teams he's faced, we had 15 penalties vs. Clemson and 14 vs. UF, and of course the abomination that was the UNC game. We've shown up unprepared vs. great teams, typically starting slow, and have struggled miserably after byes vs. all teams.
 
The biggest thing the SEC does that we don't is recruit O-lineman to run against SEC defenses. You can trot all the skills in the world out there, if you can't block them, you can't run your offense and that makes it very hard to win.
 
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