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Julian Armella

NorthEastCane said:
It's not a question of us expecting to win 11 games. It's a question of us expecting to win 11 games to create the type of buzz you're anticipating.

9-3 (in the ACC coastal) is not going to attract the attention of the types you're talking about.
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well I counter with let’s say we end up 9-3 and our offense is buzzing the last 4 weeks of the season. We play Clemson and we beat them. How would recruits see that?
 
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1) 9-3 ain’t getting us in the championship game so why is that even a goal?

2) This is the most talented roster in the ACC outside of Clemson.

3) There is only 2 teams that we even have the slight possibility of losing to. They are UNC and VT who both have questions on D. We’re not losing to them and if we did it’ll probably be VT because they’re more talented than UNC.

End of discussion. If Manny even touches anything below 10 and there isn’t something involved grab ya check books.
 
juanky212 said:
0 excuse to not win the coastal this year. Manny has the pieces in place. Any decent coach can go undefeated in the regular season with this team and our schedule. We do what we are suppose to do, and we will have a really good class.
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Zbrod95 said:
The only loss I could accept is VT at Blacksburg because it’s hard to play there but other than that Manny needs to go if he can’t get to 11-12 wins. With Williams now the only question is LT to go with One of the most dynamic QBs in the country, 2 future NFL TEs, a good veteran back with 2 highly talented freshmen behind him, 2 legit first round talents playing the edge with 2 potential NFL in the middle, and an NFL backend to help our corners. This team ain’t perfect but it’s still the 2nd most talented team in the ACC.
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I can respect and appreciate the buy-in to the talent on this team. I, too, believe it is the most talented team we have had in recent memory, with the best QB and most exciting offensive scheme we have had around here in a while. And obviously, I can't say what any other fan will find "acceptable" or not for this team.

That being said, most sports (and even college football) just do not work as described above. Teams with more talent will occasionally lose to less talented teams. Because what is critical isn't that a team has "more" talent, but what the talent disparity is. And of course, things like coaching (corching?), match-ups, scheme, injuries, the weather, etc... also come into play. But even then, favorites lose games... at a pretty decent rate. Gamblers know this, and there is a reason Vegas puts UM's win total at 9. That's why even if your team is the favorite literally every single game they play, seasonal win totals are typically still less than "undefeated" or "one-loss."

If you have a minute, check out this chart by Jimmy Boyd. He looked at underdog winning rates in college football for games going back to 1980 and collected some interesting data. For example, out of 713 games where a team was a 6 point favorite, the underdog won 1/3 of the time (238 games). Even 12-point favorites (382) were still managing to lose outright just over 1/5 of the time (80). Even crazier, 25 point underdogs managed to win nearly 5% of the time. I haven't seen any weekly spreads yet for college games, but I would guess many, if not most, of UM's games will fall within a 12-point spread.

And though I generally think it's trash (especially in the pre-season), if you go by E$PN's FPI, UM is currently projected at 6.6 regular season wins (sad link). E$PN, overall, does eat a magical bag of endless d!cks. And if we somehow manage to win only 7 regular season games, Diaz should just be fired... he should be fired out of a giant canon into space. But the point is, outside of CIS, people around college football aren't saying UM is an 11-win or undefeated team.

Maybe that takes into account Diaz being a liability at HC at this stage in his career. It's definitely possible and undeniably part of the calculus. But I suspect it has more to do with our historical performance and the fact our talent, while certainly better than most of the ACC, isn't so head-and-shoulders better so as to think any of our conference games will be a stroll in the park.



*Caveat: I'm not sure how current the Boyd numbers are, but here's a Link to another article published in June 2014 with pretty similar numbers. And according to this 2018 article looking at approximately 40 years of college football games, underdogs won outright (regardless of spread) 5,553 underdogs (or 22.8%). Teams that should win lose all the time. So even if we are favored every game (I don't think we will be), it doesn't mean the expectation should be that we win every game.
 
Zbrod95 said:
Any committee that puts us in the top 20 while losing to those teams have lost their ******* mind.
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That's your opinion, and I get it. But it won't preclude us from being in the top 20. And 100% ranked. People love to hate their own team, and you might decide we are garbage, but that would have us top 20. That's winning 75% of your games. How many Power 5 teams win 75%?

And yes, I know we all want to win the NC, I get it. But objectively, and based on precedent, we'd be right around 18-20 if you look at it. Take a look at the last two final AP polls.
 
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AlixCane said:
That's your opinion, and I get it. But it won't preclude us from being in the top 20. And 100% ranked. People love to hate their own team, and you might decide we are garbage, but that would have us top 20. That's winning 75% of your games. How many Power 5 teams win 75%?

And yes, I know we all want to win the NC, I get it. But objectively, and based on precedent, we'd be right around 18-20 if you look at it. Take a look at the last two final AP polls.
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We have one of the worst schedules is P5. Yes it will. Anybody saying the contrary needs to go look at the big 12 and SEC schedules and compare it to ours.

www.cbssports.com

College Football Rankings 2023 - AP Top 25

Get the latest College Football rankings for the 2023 season. Find out where your favorite team is ranked in the AP Top 25, Coaches Poll, CBS Sports Rankings, or Playoff Rankings polls and rankings.
www.cbssports.com www.cbssports.com

The last team is an 8-5 Texas team that’s in a tougher conference than us. Over a 9 win Virgina team. It will not put us in the top 20.
 
Zbrod95 said:
We have one of the worst schedules is P5. Yes it will. Anybody saying the contrary needs to go look at the big 12 and SEC schedules and compare it to ours.

www.cbssports.com

College Football Rankings 2023 - AP Top 25

Get the latest College Football rankings for the 2023 season. Find out where your favorite team is ranked in the AP Top 25, Coaches Poll, CBS Sports Rankings, or Playoff Rankings polls and rankings.
www.cbssports.com www.cbssports.com

The last team is an 8-5 Texas team that’s in a tougher conference than us. Over a 9 win Virgina team. It will not put us in the top 20.
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Uh, I think you are making my point. Texas had 5 losses. And was still ranked. There isn't even a FOUR loss Power-5 team that isn't ranked.

The worst three-loss power-5 team, Utah, was ranked #16. If we had a better schedule, I would have said 12-16. Its why I dropped to "top 20" and even hedged a bit to top 25.

9-3 Miami is on the board. 1000%. We've seen this many times in CFB. As all evidence and president shows as much.
 
AlixCane said:
Uh, I think you are making my point. Texas had 5 losses. And was still ranked. There isn't even a FOUR loss Power-5 team that isn't ranked.

The worst three-loss power-5 team, Utah, was ranked #16. If we had a better schedule, I would have said 12-16. Its why I dropped to "top 20" and even hedged a bit to top 25.

9-3 Miami is on the board. 1000%. As all evidence and president shows.
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No, you need to reread it.

AN 8 WIN TEAM FROM ANOTHER CONFERENCE BEAT OUT A 9 WIN ACC TEAM. THIS IS SHOWING YOU THAT YOU’RE WRONG. THE ACC SUCKS, ITS THE 4TH BEST CONFERENCE IN CFB.
 
Zbrod95 said:
No, you need to reread it.

AN 8 WIN TEAM FROM ANOTHER CONFERENCE BEAT OUT A 9 WIN ACC TEAM. THIS IS SHOWING YOU THAT YOU’RE WRONG. THE ACC SUCKS, ITS THE 4TH BEST CONFERENCE IN CFB.
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Stop screaming. What about Utah from the Wack-10? #16.

I get the point you are trying to make, but UVA had 5 losses. And UVA is not Miami. They aren't televised like we are, they don't have the brand, and if they hadn't lost 5 games, they would have been ranked. They lost their last two. You know recent games count more in the polls.

You can post what you want, but a 9-3 Miami, no matter which teams they beat or lose to, makes the poll. Maybe by process of elimination, but they are ranked. And probably top 20 like I said.
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
The schedule sets up very nicely for UNC. We are off a bye (yes, I know last season that was NOT a good thing, but with everyone on the planet crushing Manny for it, you've got to think we will be somewhat better), we are at home, we'll have 2 weeks to play up the revenge tour aspect, and that game is #8 in a row for them. They've got a bye the week following. You've got to think they're going to be running on fumes with this abbreviated training session due to COVID and then playing 8 consecutive Saturdays.

I think we beat UNC this year. We had a much higher win expectancy last year, on the road, at night, and nobody had any film on Howell at all. We'll be much more prepared this time around.
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We need this game. But It would be nice ( if we were to lose games ) to not lose to teams that are horrible like we did with Pitt FIU and the other. rural losses. I still haven’t gotten over the loss at UNC in the early 2000s when Bunting was the coach. That was a bad UNC team. We have to avoid those games
 
Zbrod95 said:
1) 9-3 ain’t getting us in the championship game so why is that even a goal?

2) This is the most talented roster in the ACC outside of Clemson.

3) There is only 2 teams that we even have the slight possibility of losing to. They are UNC and VT who both have questions on D. We’re not losing to them and if we did it’ll probably be VT because they’re more talented than UNC.

End of discussion. If Manny even touches anything below 10 and there isn’t something involved grab ya check books.
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UNC fans don’t think they have questions on defense at all... they love their secondary and defensive line and everybody thinks surratt is pretty good. The logical fans up there are worried about their offensive line
 
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