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Is Manny a Good DC??

No_Fly_Zone said:
I appreciate the work and data that went into this thread, OP. Definitely suggests teams we play are having a harder time moving the ball against Manny's D than others they face during the same year.

My one question: did you include our opponents' games against non-FBS schools in calculating their average YPP? That could potentially skew the results a bit by inflating our opponents' average YPP (at least, I expect, for the P5 schools). For instance, that 2018 GT team put up 7.51 YPP against Alcorn State, inflating their own YPP a bit and exaggerating the strength of its offense.

Even if you included those games I'm not sure how much removing them would change the numbers, since it looks like in several of these games UM did much better than our opponents' average, but something to think about.
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I never include any data with FCS teams. Those are scrimmages. FBS vs FBS only, always.
 
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Interesting that we held 2017 Wisconsin to nearly a full yard below their average YPP.

But when you look at it deeper, Hornibrook went 23/34 for 258, 4 TD and no picks. That's pretty pitiful defense. Jonathan Taylor ran for 130 yards on 26 carries. They might not have had a ton of long plays, but they picked us apart underneath all game. They also controlled the clock with a 2 to 1 time of possession. They were 7/15 on 3rd down and we frequently couldn't get off the field.

Same thing with 2018 Wisconsin. We held them to half a point below their average YPP, but no one can objectively look at that game and say we played good defense. They ran for 333 yards on 58 carries. Their YPP was lower than normal only because they threw the ball just 11 times

Those are just two examples of how YPP can be a flawed metric.

No hysteria or emotionally driven response here. I think Manny is a good, but not great DC. I just caution making a conclusion based on one metric only is a flawed way of analyzing his capabilities with the job. It would be interesting to see how we stack up in others metrics (3rd down %, redzone %, turnovers, etc).
 
Gables Canes said:
Interesting that we held 2017 Wisconsin to nearly a full yard below their average YPP.

But when you look at it deeper, Hornibrook went 23/34 for 258, 4 TD and no picks. That's pretty pitiful defense. Jonathan Taylor ran for 130 yards on 26 carries. They might not have had a ton of long plays, but they picked us apart underneath all game. They also controlled the clock with a 2 to 1 time of possession. They were 7/15 on 3rd down and we frequently couldn't get off the field.

Same thing with 2018 Wisconsin. We held them to half a point below their average YPP, but no one can objectively look at that game and say we played good defense. They ran for 333 yards on 58 carries. Their YPP was lower than normal only because they threw the ball just 11 times

Those are just two examples of how YPP can be a flawed metric.

No hysteria or emotionally driven response here. I think Manny is a good, but not great DC. I just caution making a conclusion based on one metric only is a flawed way of analyzing his capabilities with the job. It would be interesting to see how we stack up in others metrics (3rd down %, redzone %, turnovers, etc).
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what's that saying? "Lies, **** lies.... and statistics."
 
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Gables Canes said:
Interesting that we held 2017 Wisconsin to nearly a full yard below their average YPP.

But when you look at it deeper, Hornibrook went 23/34 for 258, 4 TD and no picks. That's pretty pitiful defense. Jonathan Taylor ran for 130 yards on 26 carries. They might not have had a ton of long plays, but they picked us apart underneath all game. They also controlled the clock with a 2 to 1 time of possession. They were 7/15 on 3rd down and we frequently couldn't get off the field.

Same thing with 2018 Wisconsin. We held them to half a point below their average YPP, but no one can objectively look at that game and say we played good defense. They ran for 333 yards on 58 carries. Their YPP was lower than normal only because they threw the ball just 11 times

Those are just two examples of how YPP can be a flawed metric.

No hysteria or emotionally driven response here. I think Manny is a good, but not great DC. I just caution making a conclusion based on one metric only is a flawed way of analyzing his capabilities with the job. It would be interesting to see how we stack up in others metrics (3rd down %, redzone %, turnovers, etc).
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Wisconsin had a top 30 offense if I'm not mistaken. I don't remember if it was 2017 or 2018 when it happened, but there were several times when Miami had a DB in perfect position, Hornibrook threw the ball up, our DB didn't turn his head, and the WR ended up with a huge gain. It was infuriating. You couldn't have schemed it up much better, a guy running step for step and if he turns his head it's almost guaranteed to be an INT. I don't think the issue was scheme as much as players failing on basic fundamentals. I'd have to look at the game again to see if players were actually in position but failed to execute. So that's also a scenario where the stats don't tell the story. Scheme is sound, but players aren't doing their jobs. That also falls on the DC so he certainly doesn't get a pass for that, but it does matter in terms of determining what went wrong. Also Diaz shouldn't have needed more proof that he should have replaced Rumph a couple years ago.
 
k9cane said:
what's that saying? "Lies, **** lies.... and statistics."
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I happen to be a stats nerd as I am a Financial Analyst for a living. But looking at just one metric for pretty much anything can lead you to a flawed and/or biased conclusion. It typically takes several different metrics to make a more concrete, numbers-based conclusion. That's why I'd be curious to see how Manny's D's stacked up against opponents' averages in other statistical categories.

Maybe OP can make this Part 1 of a deep dive series. It beats *****ing about why Blake Baker and Mike Rumph are still on staph for the rest of the offseason (which I myself have done plenty of, but I'm ready to move on).
 
TimeB0mb said:
Wisconsin had a top 30 offense if I'm not mistaken. I don't remember if it was 2017 or 2018 when it happened, but there were several times when Miami had a DB in perfect position, Hornibrook threw the ball up, our DB didn't turn his head, and the WR ended up with a huge gain. It was infuriating. You couldn't have schemed it up much better, a guy running step for step and if he turns his head it's almost guaranteed to be an INT. I don't think the issue was scheme as much as players failing on basic fundamentals. That also falls on the DC so he certainly doesn't get a pass for that. Also Diaz shouldn't have needed more proof that he should replaced Rumph.
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That was the 2017 Orange Bowl. Probably the most infuriating loss of the season because you could see why just clearly had more talent. I remember how furious we all were with Rumph after that game. Somehow, he's STILL on the staph heading into 2021. Lol.
 
Gables Canes said:
I happen to be a stats nerd as I am a Financial Analyst for a living. But looking at just one metric for pretty much anything can lead you to a flawed and/or biased conclusion. It typically takes several different metrics to make a more concrete, numbers-based conclusion. That's why I'd be curious to see how Manny's D's stacked up against opponents' averages in other statistical categories.

Maybe OP can make this Part 1 of a deep dive series. It beats *****ing about why Blake Baker and Mike Rumph are still on staph for the rest of the offseason (which I myself have done plenty of, but I'm ready to move on).
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Agreed, and sometimes the 'eye test' can tell you a lot, but again, that has to be backed up by some data. I know this, many of my suspicions about the flaws in our current defensive system have been backed up by the words of guys who's knowledge I really respect on this board, fro @Lance Roffers @Coach Macho @gogeta4 @Liberty City El , among others

Again, Im not expecting the 85 Bears, but just a much more sound unit and philosophy. I understand the days of the 91 Canes giving up an average of 9 points per game are long gone
 
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k9cane said:
Agreed, and sometimes the 'eye test' can tell you a lot, but again, that has to be backed up by some data. I know this, many of my suspicions about the flaws in our current defensive system have been backed up by the words of guys who's knowledge I really respect on this board, fro @Lance Roffers @Coach Macho @gogeta4 @Liberty City El , among others

Again, Im not expecting the 85 Bears, but just a much more sound unit and philosophy. I understand the days of the 91 Canes giving up an average of 9 points per game are long gone
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Agreed. You gotta outscore people in today's world. That's why an elite offense is more important than an elite defense. OU has made the playoffs with top flight offenses and average to poor defenses.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Now that the dust has settled, as much as I disagree with the moves (or lack thereof), we have to live with what we've got, so I wanted to take a harder look at Manny's performance strictly as a DC.

The sentiment here from most, as it seems to me, is that he sucks overall as a DC. I've read post after post that all have these things in common:

1. We get crushed by every good team we play
2. We make average offenses look great

So, I decided to take a look at 2016 - 2018 and see how he stacked up. Now, opponents YPP is not the best indicator in the world. No metric is. But it's a very good indicator of success. If you look, year in and year out, and the defenses people feel are the best, they are at or near the top in YPP allowed. So I took a look, and frankly, the numbers are staggering in Manny's favor. What I wanted to see is not only what the total YPP allowed was (I think we all know, for better or worse, that overall they were very good those 3 years when looking nationally), but how did we compare to the teams we played. Again, the sentiment here is we can't stop good teams, and bad teams look better when they play us. Well...…...those of you who feel that way probably aren't going to enjoy what the data shows.

-- In 2016 - 2018, we played 36 games vs FBS teams. Of those 36 games, we held our opponent under their season average in YPP on offense 30 times. That's 83% of the time. 83% of the time, when Manny was the DC, the team we played had a BELOW AVERAGE game on offense. That's not bad.

-- Of those 30 such games, 21 of them, we held our opponent to close to a FULL YARD below their season average. If you're not aware, that is a MASSIVE difference. A full yard per play is worth probably 50+ spots in the national rankings (6 YPP vs 5 YPP, etc). So in 21 of 36 games played, the defense held our opponent to almost a full yard less than their average (-0.95 and up is what I found).

-- Of the 6 games that the defense gave up MORE than the opponent's season average, only ONE of those times was it more than a full yard. 2017 vs Virginia, a game we won, but one that lives in infamy on this site. The others: 2016 VT when the whole defense was hurt (0.93 higher than avg), 2016 Notre Dame (0.06 above avg, basically a wash), 2016 Duke (0.15 above avg), 2017 FSU (0.28 above avg), and 2018 Boston College (0.07 above average). So even the games we were worse than average against that opponent, most of them were barely worse.

-- I'm not trying to skew anything here, I'm trying to project this objectively. So what about the offenses we played? That's where one could make an argument against what I've presented above. 2017, we faced a lot of good offenses. 7 of the top 41 offenses. Of those, the defense held 6 of them below their average. The only time they didn't, Notre Dame that was mentioned above, they only got 0.06 yards above their average. So we faced a Top 41 offense more than half the games, and almost every single time, they were below their average against us. 2017 and 2018, we didn't face a lot of good offenses. Only 3 in the Top 51. However, of those, we held ALL 3 to well below their averages. ND, GT, and Toledo. 2018, only 4 offenses in the Top 44. But again, all 4 were held below their season averages.

I will post the spreadsheets below, but the bottom line is, as much as you want to say the defense sucked and Manny sucks as a DC, the data is overwhelmingly against you. We do not face elite offenses week in and week out, but literally every single time except 1 that Manny faced a Top 50 offense, he held them under their season average. Again, doesn't mean the defense is lights out every week. We know we had some performances that left a lot to be desired. But for 3 years we all said "If we just had a good offense to pair with Manny's defense". Well, for better or worse, we're gonna get what we wish for.


2016 SEASON
OPPONENTYPP ALLOWEDOPP YPP AVGDIFFERENCE
FAU3.015.68-2.67
APP STATE3.656.13-2.48
GEORGIA TECH4.956.47-1.52
FLORIDA STATE5.336.48-1.15
NORTH CAROLINA5.186.3-1.12
VIRGINIA TECH6.715.780.93
NOTRE DAME6.136.070.06
PITTSBURGH5.966.94-0.98
VIRGINIA4.314.82-0.51
NC STATE4.515.72-1.21
DUKE5.25.050.15
WEST VIRGINIA3.526.29-2.77

2017 SEASON
OPPONENTYPP ALLOWEDOPP YPP AVGDIFFERENCE
TOLEDO5.056.87-1.82
DUKE3.974.79-0.82
FLORIDA STATE5.725.440.28
GEORGIA TECH4.615.74-1.13
SYRACUSE4.295.24-0.95
NORTH CAROLINA4.655.02-0.37
VIRGINIA TECH3.995.39-1.4
NOTRE DAME4.146.39-2.25
VIRGINIA6.754.91.85
PITTSBURGH4.665.43-0.77
CLEMSON4.415.46-1.05
WISCONSIN5.136.09-0.96

2018 SEASON
OPPONENTYPP ALLOWEDOPP YPP AVGDIFFERENCE
LSU4.555.47-0.92
TOLEDO5.666.08-0.42
FIU3.66-2.4
NORTH CAROLINA4.395.7-1.31
FLORIDA STATE3.085.07-1.99
VIRGINIA3.795.76-1.97
BOSTON COLLEGE5.225.150.07
DUKE4.335.41-1.08
GEORGIA TECH5.325.97-0.65
VIRGINIA TECH4.865.66-0.8
PITTSBURGH3.235.77-2.54
WISCONSIN5.886.4-0.52
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Really good breakdown.

The one thing I keep coming back to is, what defense out there is performing at the level we expect of Manny as a DC? Meaning the defense that dominates lesser opponents (which it seems Manny's defense does) and also performs well against elite offenses (which is where Manny falls flat). Because Venables (OSU and LSU have shredded his defense the last two years), Kerry Coombs (Indiana and Bama this year), **** even Pete Goulding/Saban gave up 48 to Ole Miss and 46 to Florida this year. Last year's champion LSU gave up point totals of 38, 38, 41 and 37. And all of those coordinators have been working with much more talent than Miami the past few years. So I think its pretty normal for defenses to struggle nowadays given the way the game is trending and officiated.

The issue to me has always been our inability to have any semblance of complimentary football the last 20 years. We're always missing one half of the coin. If we have a good offense like this past year, we have a terrible defense. If we have a good defense (Richt era, mid-2000's etc.), our offense struggles to put up 20 points a game. We just haven't been able to get both sides of the football humming at the same time, and its been holding us back. Having a good offense helps your defense (gives them time to rest and make adjustments, its easier to play defense from ahead etc.) and vice versa. I'm cautiously optimistic for this year given the additions of Jess Simpson and T-Rob and what that means for the defense (a more aggressive, man-oriented scheme that actually has lineman with gap integrity), and year 2 for Lashlee to where he can implement some more complex concepts in the passing and running games.

We should go 10-2 at worse next year, if not Manny can kick rocks.
 
Gables Canes said:
Agreed. You gotta outscore people in today's world. That's why an elite offense is more important than an elite defense. OU has made the playoffs with top flight offenses and average to poor defenses.
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Maybe it's because we all hate the Gator, but what more proof do people need? UF and Miami have comparable defenses (we are better in some areas, they are better in others but as a whole we are in the same tier). Yet UF was just one corching decision away (clock mismanagement at the end of the 1st half) from upsetting Bama in the SEC championship game. This wasn't a game where UF snuck up on Bama like Ole Miss might have. Giving up 400+ yards and 35 points to a top offense isn't really a big deal anymore (I think LSU gave up 400+ to Clemson in the Natty last year). You just need a D that can make a few key stops. When you get down to brass tacks, a defense that forces a ton of turnovers (irrespective of yards or PPG allowed) and gives a high powered offense several more chances to score is a pretty good recipe for success in today's game. That's easily a bar that Diaz's D can reach.
 
Liberty City El said:
If Mark Richt was the HC with Lashlee as his OC & Manny as his DC we’d be the 2nd best team in the ACC.

Manny is a career coordinator, we need a CEO as the HC, so yes Manny is a good (not great) DC, but the real question should be, is he a good Head Coach?

I don’t think anyone has an issue with Manny being the DC, but it highlights a glaring issue with his staff where he literally has to demote his DC & take over play calling himself in order to keep from having this season mudslide down off a hill, it speaks volumes that in year 3 of his tenure he’s having to make a last ditch effort to keep from getting burned at the stake.

It’s a Macro issue, not Micro. It’s putting a Band-aid over a leak in the levees, eventually the thing is going to break & flood.

The only thing that matters is translating it into Wins on the field, what Manny’s tenure as DC showed us was that he was good against most average teams that we had a significant talent advantage over, but whenever we played teams that had equal level talent, they usually worked us (see Wisconsin, Clemson, LSU), which is exactly where we still are now.

Looking at our schedule & not knowing what King’s health status will be come September, be honest what would you say our record will be this season? I can easily see another. 8-4/9-3 at best, if King makes a full recovery & is good to go all season I could maybe see a 10-2, but knowing what we know about how this team performs under Manny as the HC there’s a good chance we miss out on the Coastal again.

So then the question becomes, how many times we gonna keep going through this obstacle course just to end up with the same result every year? At what point do we stop trying to find a silver lining in Manny the DC but hold him accountable for his decisions as the HC?
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"At what point do we stop trying to find a silver lining in Manny the DC but hold him accountable for his decisions as the HC?"

Stop on.
 
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TimeB0mb said:
Maybe it's because we all hate the Gator, but what more proof do people need? UF and Miami have comparable defenses (we are better in some areas, they are better in others but as a whole we are in the same tier). Yet UF was just one corching decision away (clock mismanagement at the end of the 1st half) from upsetting Bama in the SEC championship game. This wasn't a game where UF snuck up on Bama like Ole Miss might have. Giving up 400+ yards and 35 points to a top offense isn't really a big deal anymore (I think LSU gave up 400+ to Clemson in the Natty last year). You just need a D that can make a few key stops. When you get down to brass tacks, a defense that forces a ton of turnovers (irrespective of yards or PPG allowed) and gives a high powered offense several more chances to score is a pretty good recipe for success in today's game. That's easily a bar that Diaz's D can reach.
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I hope we can force more turnovers next year with the infusion of talent and athleticism we have coming in. We didn't force nearly enough this year.
 
TimeB0mb said:
Maybe it's because we all hate the Gator, but what more proof do people need? UF and Miami have comparable defenses (we are better in some areas, they are better in others but as a whole we are in the same tier). Yet UF was just one corching decision away (clock mismanagement at the end of the 1st half) from upsetting Bama in the SEC championship game. This wasn't a game where UF snuck up on Bama like Ole Miss might have. Giving up 400+ yards and 35 points to a top offense isn't really a big deal anymore (I think LSU gave up 400+ to Clemson in the Natty last year). You just need a D that can make a few key stops. When you get down to brass tacks, a defense that forces a ton of turnovers (irrespective of yards or PPG allowed) and gives a high powered offense several more chances to score is a pretty good recipe for success in today's game. That's easily a bar that Diaz's D can reach.
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agreed. people have these beefs with manny's philosophy which is just weird because i think it's completely sound for today's college game. the devil has been in the execution. if we actually recruit well at all position groups and develop our talent to play fundamentally sound ball within this scheme, something we've failed to do thus far, there's no reason it can't be a consistent positive for us like it was from 2016-2018.
 
I know he’s a busy man, but now that we’ve heard from the GOAT (LCE)... I need some wise words and stats from Roffers on these defensive coaching ‘moves’
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
Now that the dust has settled, as much as I disagree with the moves (or lack thereof), we have to live with what we've got, so I wanted to take a harder look at Manny's performance strictly as a DC.

The sentiment here from most, as it seems to me, is that he sucks overall as a DC. I've read post after post that all have these things in common:

1. We get crushed by every good team we play
2. We make average offenses look great

So, I decided to take a look at 2016 - 2018 and see how he stacked up. Now, opponents YPP is not the best indicator in the world. No metric is. But it's a very good indicator of success. If you look, year in and year out, and the defenses people feel are the best, they are at or near the top in YPP allowed. So I took a look, and frankly, the numbers are staggering in Manny's favor. What I wanted to see is not only what the total YPP allowed was (I think we all know, for better or worse, that overall they were very good those 3 years when looking nationally), but how did we compare to the teams we played. Again, the sentiment here is we can't stop good teams, and bad teams look better when they play us. Well...…...those of you who feel that way probably aren't going to enjoy what the data shows.

-- In 2016 - 2018, we played 36 games vs FBS teams. Of those 36 games, we held our opponent under their season average in YPP on offense 30 times. That's 83% of the time. 83% of the time, when Manny was the DC, the team we played had a BELOW AVERAGE game on offense. That's not bad.

-- Of those 30 such games, 21 of them, we held our opponent to close to a FULL YARD below their season average. If you're not aware, that is a MASSIVE difference. A full yard per play is worth probably 50+ spots in the national rankings (6 YPP vs 5 YPP, etc). So in 21 of 36 games played, the defense held our opponent to almost a full yard less than their average (-0.95 and up is what I found).

-- Of the 6 games that the defense gave up MORE than the opponent's season average, only ONE of those times was it more than a full yard. 2017 vs Virginia, a game we won, but one that lives in infamy on this site. The others: 2016 VT when the whole defense was hurt (0.93 higher than avg), 2016 Notre Dame (0.06 above avg, basically a wash), 2016 Duke (0.15 above avg), 2017 FSU (0.28 above avg), and 2018 Boston College (0.07 above average). So even the games we were worse than average against that opponent, most of them were barely worse.

-- I'm not trying to skew anything here, I'm trying to project this objectively. So what about the offenses we played? That's where one could make an argument against what I've presented above. 2017, we faced a lot of good offenses. 7 of the top 41 offenses. Of those, the defense held 6 of them below their average. The only time they didn't, Notre Dame that was mentioned above, they only got 0.06 yards above their average. So we faced a Top 41 offense more than half the games, and almost every single time, they were below their average against us. 2017 and 2018, we didn't face a lot of good offenses. Only 3 in the Top 51. However, of those, we held ALL 3 to well below their averages. ND, GT, and Toledo. 2018, only 4 offenses in the Top 44. But again, all 4 were held below their season averages.

I will post the spreadsheets below, but the bottom line is, as much as you want to say the defense sucked and Manny sucks as a DC, the data is overwhelmingly against you. We do not face elite offenses week in and week out, but literally every single time except 1 that Manny faced a Top 50 offense, he held them under their season average. Again, doesn't mean the defense is lights out every week. We know we had some performances that left a lot to be desired. But for 3 years we all said "If we just had a good offense to pair with Manny's defense". Well, for better or worse, we're gonna get what we wish for.


2016 SEASON
OPPONENTYPP ALLOWEDOPP YPP AVGDIFFERENCE
FAU3.015.68-2.67
APP STATE3.656.13-2.48
GEORGIA TECH4.956.47-1.52
FLORIDA STATE5.336.48-1.15
NORTH CAROLINA5.186.3-1.12
VIRGINIA TECH6.715.780.93
NOTRE DAME6.136.070.06
PITTSBURGH5.966.94-0.98
VIRGINIA4.314.82-0.51
NC STATE4.515.72-1.21
DUKE5.25.050.15
WEST VIRGINIA3.526.29-2.77

2017 SEASON
OPPONENTYPP ALLOWEDOPP YPP AVGDIFFERENCE
TOLEDO5.056.87-1.82
DUKE3.974.79-0.82
FLORIDA STATE5.725.440.28
GEORGIA TECH4.615.74-1.13
SYRACUSE4.295.24-0.95
NORTH CAROLINA4.655.02-0.37
VIRGINIA TECH3.995.39-1.4
NOTRE DAME4.146.39-2.25
VIRGINIA6.754.91.85
PITTSBURGH4.665.43-0.77
CLEMSON4.415.46-1.05
WISCONSIN5.136.09-0.96

2018 SEASON
OPPONENTYPP ALLOWEDOPP YPP AVGDIFFERENCE
LSU4.555.47-0.92
TOLEDO5.666.08-0.42
FIU3.66-2.4
NORTH CAROLINA4.395.7-1.31
FLORIDA STATE3.085.07-1.99
VIRGINIA3.795.76-1.97
BOSTON COLLEGE5.225.150.07
DUKE4.335.41-1.08
GEORGIA TECH5.325.97-0.65
VIRGINIA TECH4.865.66-0.8
PITTSBURGH3.235.77-2.54
WISCONSIN5.886.4-0.52
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Here’s my question since I did something similar in another post:

What was there total yards in comparison?
What was their T.O.P in comparison?
What was their 3rd down pct%
What was their 4th down pct%
What was their PPG v. what we allowed?

There’s 1000 ways to die, and if I recall, outside of the, literally, miraculous 15 game winning streak we went on, I specifically recall Manny’s defense dying a slow death, whether that was giving up 3rd down after 3rd down, 4th down after 4th down, or any team that had any sort of run game, pounding it down our throats for a consistent 3-4 ypc = 200+ yards on the ground.

So, are we going to just get ran through like a see through pair of boxers (Baker’s def) or are we going to get bled through like a loose tampon (Diaz’s def)? Pick ur poison, b/c the YPP is not a great indicator IF yo *** can’t get off the field (Diaz’s defense).
 
I agree with you that Manny had a good scheme, but with Baker we had way too much soft zone, and We don't have the talent on defense we did those years with Manny(due to his and his cronies recruiting ability). If we do have the talent, It hasn't been coached up, given a chance to shine, or put in positions to be successful. I would love to see more man coverage across the board this year. I also think Jess Simpson is going to be the best hire he made this offseason even with T-Rob coming on.
 
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