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Is Manny a Good DC??

JayCane20 said:
Great post. I remember seeing similar to this in someone else’s breakdown of just the 2018 season. Pretty crazy that 3 of the 6 games came in the losing streak in year 1 when we had a ton of injuries. 2 were basically a wash and 1 that we won.

Can we do this analysis for Blake Baker the last 2 years?
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Please no
 
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Great post, OP.

I don't think the scheme is completely fcuked. I remember a few years ago, we were near the bottom of D1 in 3rd down defense. The next year we were near the top. Like everything else, Manny showed the ability to recognize where we were weak and to work on it in the offseason.

I have to think he is smart enough to know the scheme needs to be tweaked. Coaches should be tweaking week to week, let alone year to year. Manny has been a coach long enough to know tendencies, and that you better mask or break your own tendencies, or else you are gonna get exploited.

I don't expect us to become passive all of a sudden. If he didn't believe in the aggressive front 4, he would have got rid of Baker and brought in someone with fresh ideas. But taking over playcalling can help, despite what you read on these boards.

Another thing Manny was always great at as a DC was halftime adjustments. Not so much in-game, but halftime. That has declined since Baker took over.

So although I disagree with the decision to keep Baker, I do trust in Manny's awareness. And if I trust his awareness, then its only logical that I expect him to make changes. Will the changes/tweaks suit our personnel? We shall see, because I think that is an area he has lacked in. But he is willing to go down with his ship, and that I can respect.
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
Now that the dust has settled, as much as I disagree with the moves (or lack thereof), we have to live with what we've got, so I wanted to take a harder look at Manny's performance strictly as a DC.

The sentiment here from most, as it seems to me, is that he sucks overall as a DC. I've read post after post that all have these things in common:

1. We get crushed by every good team we play
2. We make average offenses look great

So, I decided to take a look at 2016 - 2018 and see how he stacked up. Now, opponents YPP is not the best indicator in the world. No metric is. But it's a very good indicator of success. If you look, year in and year out, and the defenses people feel are the best, they are at or near the top in YPP allowed. So I took a look, and frankly, the numbers are staggering in Manny's favor. What I wanted to see is not only what the total YPP allowed was (I think we all know, for better or worse, that overall they were very good those 3 years when looking nationally), but how did we compare to the teams we played. Again, the sentiment here is we can't stop good teams, and bad teams look better when they play us. Well...…...those of you who feel that way probably aren't going to enjoy what the data shows.

-- In 2016 - 2018, we played 36 games vs FBS teams. Of those 36 games, we held our opponent under their season average in YPP on offense 30 times. That's 83% of the time. 83% of the time, when Manny was the DC, the team we played had a BELOW AVERAGE game on offense. That's not bad.

-- Of those 30 such games, 21 of them, we held our opponent to close to a FULL YARD below their season average. If you're not aware, that is a MASSIVE difference. A full yard per play is worth probably 50+ spots in the national rankings (6 YPP vs 5 YPP, etc). So in 21 of 36 games played, the defense held our opponent to almost a full yard less than their average (-0.95 and up is what I found).

-- Of the 6 games that the defense gave up MORE than the opponent's season average, only ONE of those times was it more than a full yard. 2017 vs Virginia, a game we won, but one that lives in infamy on this site. The others: 2016 VT when the whole defense was hurt (0.93 higher than avg), 2016 Notre Dame (0.06 above avg, basically a wash), 2016 Duke (0.15 above avg), 2017 FSU (0.28 above avg), and 2018 Boston College (0.07 above average). So even the games we were worse than average against that opponent, most of them were barely worse.

-- I'm not trying to skew anything here, I'm trying to project this objectively. So what about the offenses we played? That's where one could make an argument against what I've presented above. 2017, we faced a lot of good offenses. 7 of the top 41 offenses. Of those, the defense held 6 of them below their average. The only time they didn't, Notre Dame that was mentioned above, they only got 0.06 yards above their average. So we faced a Top 41 offense more than half the games, and almost every single time, they were below their average against us. 2017 and 2018, we didn't face a lot of good offenses. Only 3 in the Top 51. However, of those, we held ALL 3 to well below their averages. ND, GT, and Toledo. 2018, only 4 offenses in the Top 44. But again, all 4 were held below their season averages.

I will post the spreadsheets below, but the bottom line is, as much as you want to say the defense sucked and Manny sucks as a DC, the data is overwhelmingly against you. We do not face elite offenses week in and week out, but literally every single time except 1 that Manny faced a Top 50 offense, he held them under their season average. Again, doesn't mean the defense is lights out every week. We know we had some performances that left a lot to be desired. But for 3 years we all said "If we just had a good offense to pair with Manny's defense". Well, for better or worse, we're gonna get what we wish for.


2016 SEASON
OPPONENTYPP ALLOWEDOPP YPP AVGDIFFERENCE
FAU3.015.68-2.67
APP STATE3.656.13-2.48
GEORGIA TECH4.956.47-1.52
FLORIDA STATE5.336.48-1.15
NORTH CAROLINA5.186.3-1.12
VIRGINIA TECH6.715.780.93
NOTRE DAME6.136.070.06
PITTSBURGH5.966.94-0.98
VIRGINIA4.314.82-0.51
NC STATE4.515.72-1.21
DUKE5.25.050.15
WEST VIRGINIA3.526.29-2.77

2017 SEASON
OPPONENTYPP ALLOWEDOPP YPP AVGDIFFERENCE
TOLEDO5.056.87-1.82
DUKE3.974.79-0.82
FLORIDA STATE5.725.440.28
GEORGIA TECH4.615.74-1.13
SYRACUSE4.295.24-0.95
NORTH CAROLINA4.655.02-0.37
VIRGINIA TECH3.995.39-1.4
NOTRE DAME4.146.39-2.25
VIRGINIA6.754.91.85
PITTSBURGH4.665.43-0.77
CLEMSON4.415.46-1.05
WISCONSIN5.136.09-0.96

2018 SEASON
OPPONENTYPP ALLOWEDOPP YPP AVGDIFFERENCE
LSU4.555.47-0.92
TOLEDO5.666.08-0.42
FIU3.66-2.4
NORTH CAROLINA4.395.7-1.31
FLORIDA STATE3.085.07-1.99
VIRGINIA3.795.76-1.97
BOSTON COLLEGE5.225.150.07
DUKE4.335.41-1.08
GEORGIA TECH5.325.97-0.65
VIRGINIA TECH4.865.66-0.8
PITTSBURGH3.235.77-2.54
WISCONSIN5.886.4-0.52
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We all would have gotten a real good look and assessment of Manny at Temple. He was lucky to have the caliber player at Miami in comparison. He’s average, poor game planner and I see nothing in the motivation department.
 
JayCane20 said:
Yes my bad 2 in the 4 game losing streak. That VT game we had Standish Dobard and Terry McCray playing DE iirc. Won 3 of the 6 games. The other we lost but the spread was irrelevant.

People always went back to getting blown out by Clemson and Wisconsin as why the D was bad in 2017 but those games were just gifted by turnovers from Rosier. I also expected the 2018 Wisconsin game to be the worst of the 3 years before I looked. That one surprised me because I remember the D getting gashed but I guess it was just Jonathan Taylor because they did nothing in the passing game.

Also glad you looked at YPP instead of points or even total yards because our offense and STs had been atrocious through most of that time. That’s where a lot of stats got skewed but you can’t fault YPP.
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Yes, and again, this doesn't tell the whole story. Clemson for example, they pretty much did whatever they wanted in the first half of that game in Charlotte. So the overall number doesn't look bad, but we struggled on defense in the 1st half. To your point, some help from the offense might have helped just a smidge. IIRC, they went down the field and scored twice to start the game, and they muffed a punt in between there and of course we did nothing for it, then missed a FG. Then after a 3 and out, Feagles had one of his patented 15 yard punts, gave them the ball around our 40, they scored again, and that's a wrap.

So it's why I prefaced what I wrote with not taking this as gospel. It tells a story. Not the whole story, but it does tell a story. If you never watched a Miami game and just came on this board, you'd think we played 12 games every single season like the UNC game this year. That was certainly not the case.
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
Yes, and again, this doesn't tell the whole story. Clemson for example, they pretty much did whatever they wanted in the first half of that game in Charlotte. So the overall number doesn't look bad, but we struggled on defense in the 1st half. To your point, some help from the offense might have helped just a smidge. IIRC, they went down the field and scored twice to start the game, and they muffed a punt in between there and of course we did nothing for it, then missed a FG. Then after a 3 and out, Feagles had one of his patented 15 yard punts, gave them the ball around our 40, they scored again, and that's a wrap.

So it's why I prefaced what I wrote with not taking this as gospel. It tells a story. Not the whole story, but it does tell a story. If you never watched a Miami game and just came on this board, you'd think we played 12 games every single season like the UNC game this year. That was certainly not the case.
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Certainly doesn’t tell the entire story for sure but manny deserves to see what he could have had with a legitimate offense and legitimate punter instead of the complete opposite.

Obviously nothing is going to beat Bama on 9/4 but if this gets us to the ACCCG it was undoubtedly the right move.
 
Alabama lost their entire team **** near and y’all trying to act like Diaz shouldnt be expected to step up as a DC and keep the game close enough to not get blown out before half?
 
KrazyCane said:
Alabama lost their entire team **** near and y’all trying to act like Diaz shouldnt be expected to step up as a DC and keep the game close enough to not get blown out before half?
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This is not a Miami vs Alabama thread. If you want to discuss that game, refer to the 17,000 threads that will be made about it between now and September.
 
our defense under manny + richt was consistently great, anyone arguing otherwise is just lying to themselves.

would be curious what this looks like for the last two seasons. you can't completely absolve manny of a decline just bcuz he wasn't calling plays but it's impossible to know how involved he was in the defense esp on game days compared to when he was DC.
 
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Flynell7 said:
The thing is people expect us to be the 85 bears. No defense is that good anymore nor is the game played the same way. Look at Lsu and Alabama the past two years. Getting exposed by mediocre teams
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They expect the 85 Bears and they expect 11-12 wins with a roster that won 6 games a year ago.
 
I think he's a good DC and with better talent, will look very good-to-great. My biggest problem is - in order to get the results of 2018, he had to give it constant focus and attention. The guy who is supposedly training his guys and getting them ready for his masterful play calling, is horrific, borderline D'Nofrio-bad.

If Manny would've gotten rid of Baker and truly taken over the full DC responsibilities (or as close to full time as a HC can), and brought back Michael Barrow or someone else who can really train LB's, I would actually feel much better about all of this.

As most on here have said, he should've fired Baker the day after the UNC game and started an aggressive search for a DC right then and there. He didn't. So now, we have a part time DC, with another guy who will not instill fundamentals, smarts, etc. into the LB's and the D writ-large.

This very thing might be the un-doing of Manny as HC. I mentioned it in another post, but in the current scenario, the ONLY way I see us fielding a legit D is if Manny has some awakening, that Baker will NOT have his players ready for his playcalling and thus, he will need to delegate many of his HC responsibilities to Jess and other staff members, and truly become the DC. Baker would become the world's most over-paid clipboard holder.
 
The #'s are irrefutable for '16-'18. A couple questions for today that may make it difficult to duplicate CMD's previous results:

-how will the overall talent on defense in '21 stack v '16-'18? DE & LB at least would seem unfavorable

-if day-to-day defensive operations (meetings, practice) are indeed run by Baker, does that undermine the overall defensive operation?
 
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Why did you stop at 2018? How about 2019 and 2020? I suspect a drop as we lost Golden’s recruits. We partially offset that with great moves in the portal, but this staff has not evaluated and recruited as well as Golden did. And that was not a high bar.

EDIT: I guess you don’t consider him the DC in 2019 and 2020. I think of this as still Manny’s defense. I think they have been a little less aggressive in play calling only because they don’t have the talent at DB to cover. Maybe I’m wrong.
 
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If Mark Richt was the HC with Lashlee as his OC & Manny as his DC we’d be the 2nd best team in the ACC.

Manny is a career coordinator, we need a CEO as the HC, so yes Manny is a good (not great) DC, but the real question should be, is he a good Head Coach?

I don’t think anyone has an issue with Manny being the DC, but it highlights a glaring issue with his staff where he literally has to demote his DC & take over play calling himself in order to keep from having this season mudslide down off a hill, it speaks volumes that in year 3 of his tenure he’s having to make a last ditch effort to keep from getting burned at the stake.

It’s a Macro issue, not Micro. It’s putting a Band-aid over a leak in the levees, eventually the thing is going to break & flood.

The only thing that matters is translating it into Wins on the field, what Manny’s tenure as DC showed us was that he was good against most average teams that we had a significant talent advantage over, but whenever we played teams that had equal level talent, they usually worked us (see Wisconsin, Clemson, LSU), which is exactly where we still are now.

Looking at our schedule & not knowing what King’s health status will be come September, be honest what would you say our record will be this season? I can easily see another. 8-4/9-3 at best, if King makes a full recovery & is good to go all season I could maybe see a 10-2, but knowing what we know about how this team performs under Manny as the HC there’s a good chance we miss out on the Coastal again.

So then the question becomes, how many times we gonna keep going through this obstacle course just to end up with the same result every year? At what point do we stop trying to find a silver lining in Manny the DC but hold him accountable for his decisions as the HC?
 
Good post with good numbers and logic. My thing with Diaz is we don’t play with any assignment integrity and by design will leave areas or guys wide open not just an occasional bust. To me it’s alarming and if there is a talent step down at safety or DT the whole thing gets exposed pretty badly
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
This is not a Miami vs Alabama thread. If you want to discuss that game, refer to the 17,000 threads that will be made about it between now and September.
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Lol you’re suggesting Manny is a good DC when he’s not. Are you going to crown Diaz for shutting down the same teams Baker could?

Alabama, UNC, and on a lower level NC State are the only teams that have an offense with a pulse on our schedule (outside of App State).

We could still lose to other teams but in terms of offense those are the only 3 that Diaz can prove he is atleast a good DC against.
 
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