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Interesting stat on Miami/Mario

DMoney said:
Based on information, I expect us to make an aggressive run at Mario. There are boosters with difference-making money who want him as our coach. My guess is the struggle will be between the potential loaded Oregon roster and the appeal of saving his alma mater.

Some posters have pointed out Mario's occasional losses to inferior teams. It's a fair point, and he reminds me of Butch in that respect. But this stat jumps out to me, both for what it says about Mario and what it says about Miami:

Mario is 4-1 against Top 10 teams since he arrived at Oregon.

Since 2006, Miami is 2-13. And the average score is 36-16.

The Notre Dame game felt so special because it was so unusual. Whoever our next coach is, one of the most obvious areas for improvement is big-game performance.
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What people fail to comprehend is those losses are as much of an indicator of that staff as it is of him. The staff he has there will be in large part completely different if he does take the job here. However we still have a ways to go before Mandy is gone. These last two losses Blake has been trying to rally the troops to show them as proof were on the right course... He sees us fighting in losses to other relatively basic teams as an indicator of how problems are being addressed. Reality is our young kids haven't been corched down out of their previously established tendencies to compete to the best of their abilities... They haven't been mandycized yet.
 
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fincane said:
If that was thing just this year then fine but it has marked his tenure there. Do most teams play close games against 1-win teams and 2 win teams when he's losing to Oregon State and Cal last year? Or a 1-win Cal team this year? Should he should have been up by only 5 against winless Arizona this year all while? If you want a coach that consistently doesn't get the best out the alleged talent he's recruited then Mario is perfect.

He won a conference title last year because Washington had Covid and couldn't play in a title game. Reciting that stat without context is fine but it means nothing to me. The comparisons to Butch are apt because they'll both cost themselves 1-2 wins a year because of inept decisions. He'll usually need a clear talent advantage to win and that doesn't impress me.
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Butch from 95-97 was absolutely crippled with sanctions (Depth)....but those teams would've still mopped the floor with any Diaz team. Once the depth was substantially better around 99...things took an upward trajectory...We whip OUs *** if we played them in 01 OB...
 
CanesFam17 said:
The expectation is simple.. competency.. prepared teams.. player improvement.. growth and development.. ability to recruit and help grow the program.. thats it.. thats all we want.. a real ceo who is young and hungry.. hopefully that translates to a trophy but if not at least we can enjoy our Saturdays again (and probably sundays as well)
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Thanks for your response.

In my opinion, in order for something to be “simple” you’ve got to be able to quantify it. How do you quantify competency, preparedness, player improvement, growth and development, helping grow the program. What is the mark that you use to gauge each of those?

I’m asking because I’m genuinely curious...

I for one have recently (this year) changed my standard and expectations until this university can change my mind.... give me a team that wins the coastal and makes it to the ACC championship 50% of the time and we can go from there.
 
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OriginalCanesCanesCanes said:
This thread is becoming a perfect example of groupthink delusion.

Right now, the odds are close to zero that Mario even comes, or even considers us seriously.

It would take a low probability chain of events for this to become even a viable option for him, from a professional standpoint.

And if Oregon really wants to keep him, they will. They will amend his contract to make it financially irresponsible for him to leave the school. This is something no one has mentioned here.
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It’s not close to zero. The people closest to him aren’t even sure.

Oregon doesn’t normally pay big money for coaches , they’ll let them leave and pocket buyout money. Then rehire another guy. Just like Taggart left and they didn’t drop a bag. They didn’t even pay Chip real money and he took them to heights they’ve never been to.
 
rsa coral gables said:
timing is the big issue. Mario isn't leaving or announcing he's leaving until this year plays out. What if he makes the playoffs? And if he goes to the title game? And if we wins the title game? if any of the last two occur, i don't expect him here. Here's hoping he loses a game or two down the road.
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Hafley did it at BC. He coached the playoff game at OSU while getting started on his staff/recruiting at BC. It's not easy but not impossible.
 
Themadcane said:
Not to mention how bad the current situation is in Portland the only real city there. It is a warzone
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Lol

My brother you really got to turn off Fox News for a hot minute. I have lots of friends in Portland and they're doing just fine.

Secondly Portland and Eugene are about 110 miles apart so I really don't see how things happening in downtown Portland affect Mario up in Eugene at all. That would be like saying a prison riot up in Port St Lucie is going to affect something in Coral gables.
 
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Poopscoop said:
He still has his home here...
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That doesn’t mean a thing when it comes to whether he would take this job or not. Lots of people have homes and places where they don’t work, it doesn’t mean they’re itching to take a job where one of their homes is located.

Like I’ve been trying to say in this thread before people go head over heels thinking we’re going to get Mario, it would take a number of unlikely things to happen for him to even consider this job, in my opinion.
 
Jassid82 said:
You forgot a few extra X factors..

You win a national title at Oregon and people would view that as really cool. Might even get Phil Knight to invite you to house for dinner on weekends.

But **** you win the **** ACC title at UM right now and he will never have to buy a meal or drink in this town again.

He wins a national title? He is a god and ESPN filmmakers are knocking at his door to start production on "The U part 3".

It just wont compare. He has to know this. He just has to.
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Miami's extreme in both ways:

Lose, and you'll be ran out of town.

Win, you'll be idolized down here.
 
OriginalCanesCanesCanes said:
You’re making an assumption there based on nothing.
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D$ didn't say we already have boosters angling for Miami with Blake James most likely not returning? So if we already have our coaching target and no AD of the future in the place is that not trying to find a HC before an AD?
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
But he is a proven coach. He would bring perennial top 10 classes here. We would be OUTSTANDING on the offensive line. We’d have a legit S&C program.
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This made me laugh. What's a "legit" S&C program to you? Someone with a handlebar mustache?

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OriginalCanesCanesCanes said:
There are definitely people that would take Mario in a heartbeat, I just question whether he even wants the job.

Being totally objective, I have to question the attractiveness of this job versus remaining at Oregon, with all the financial support and logistical support you could ever want.

Ask yourself, where does Mario have the greatest shot for success, based on fundamental structural, logistical, and general program support.

I know you already know this, but if people haven’t realized it, success is, in most cases, directly correlated to funding. Bottom line. All things being equal… Of course coaching ability is paramount, but removing that as a factor, funding is the bottom line. Equal coaches, one with support, one without support, the one with support will consistently win more.

The only way we have a shot at Mario is if it becomes toxic for him in Oregon.

That’s the only way this job becomes even slightly more attractive.
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I disagree a bit. If we can offer similar money, I would ask where would his heart be, OCCC. He has to be a Cane at heart, I would think. I would then say Miami.
 
Mario is going to want a long contract with a Ronaldo like buyout. I wont be mad with Mario but he wouldnt be my first choice.
 
Alex Jones said:
It’s not close to zero. The people closest to him aren’t even sure.

Oregon doesn’t normally pay big money for coaches , they’ll let them leave and pocket buyout money. Then rehire another guy. Just like Taggart left and they didn’t drop a bag. They didn’t even pay Chip real money and he took them to heights they’ve never been to.
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I didn’t mention coaches salaries as one of my reasons. I agree that that’s not that high in the list of reasons he would or wouldn’t come. If he was a viable candidate, that would be an acceptable salary offer in my opinion. It’s just a bunch of other stuff.

I’m saying that the number of things that would need to occur before he even seriously considered it, it’s a pretty high hurdle. We all know what those things/assumptions are. I can repeat them later if necessary.

It would require a low probability chain of events for him to even be a viable candidate.
 
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Trav said:
There really isn't. The debate is whether he would take it. Sure there are a few naysayers here but their perfect coaching specimen doesn't exist unless it's like a clone of Dabo or Saban.

Personally, I wouldn't get my hopes up on Mario. He has a good thing going and it's a lot to risk to take on this monster. At the the of the day I just don't know if he thinks it's worth it. No inside info just a gut feeling.
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This is a heart vs mind situation. He knows he stacked he could build a roster here but it’ll take a ton of work. He’s close at Oregon but no one has ever won there. Maybe it’s not plausible to expect eventually he’d break through. I believe in my gut it’ll take Miami not proving a real commitment for him to stay in Oregon. Being a Jimmy Johnson guy, I believe this place holds high regard for him. Enough to overlook some warts on the team but no administration wise.
 
troyskiles said:
I disagree a bit. If we can offer similar money, I would ask where would his heart be, OCCC. He has to be a Cane at heart, I would think. I would then say Miami.
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I don’t see it that way.

Those types of emotional arguments used to persuade will not work.

The only way he comes is if his perception is that his situation at Oregon will be worse if he stays, but better at Miami. How likely is that?

What is the probability that someone will come to that logical conclusion at the end of the season?

It would take a near improbable set of circumstances for someone to think that Miami is a better job than Oregon at the end of this season. Even for a cane alum and someone that loves the canes.
 
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