Hurricane Irma

[Jaromir Jagr]

We just watched one, Harvey that didn't.

As soon as Harvey organized itself in the Gulf, it turned right.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

Through last night I was rooting northward so it would turn east of Florida. Now the Miami area could be best served if Irma continues south and enters the Gulf.

I really wish it would dip far enough south to go over the mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba and dissipate. Doesn't look likely at all.

This one concerns me. Matthew last year was always forecast slightly east of Miami, just far enough offshore. We were mostly outside the cone or just on the edge. This thing has potential to place Miami smack in the middle. I always want 40 miles clearance from the eye. That's my reference point. You'll get dinged but not disaster.

The best local weather guy is the older gentleman on Channel 10. He doesn't hype or panic unnecessarily and he uses only the most reliable models in his plot, not all spaghetti outliers. Watching him exclusively last fall is why I was never fully fretted about Matthew. The other channels seemingly were determined to scare everybody, especially Channel 7.

 

[Notsince1985]

We just watched one, Harvey that didn't.

As soon as Harvey organized itself in the Gulf, it turned right.

Stop changing your story

 

[Bird4um]

This hits while we play at Arkansas st.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

The reference point is looking increasingly more obvious: The Miami area needs Irma to make landfall in Cuba and remain over land as long as possible. All the proposed tracks that include Cuban landfall keep Irma away from South Florida. Irma turns north in those tracks either in the Naples area or further out into the Gulf, later threatening the panhandle.

The tracks that keep Irma just north of Cuba are the ominous ones. The expected northward turn in those models is smack toward the Miami area.

The good news is that each recent update has trended Irma closer to that Cuba landfall.

 

[Zbrod95]

All turns involve SFL guys. PREPARE IF YOU LIVE DOWN HERE!!!.... the fire departments, hospitals, and police departments are already planning for a major hurricane, I don't want to have to come and save you.

 

[SpikeUM]

Not saying we'll never get hit again or even not to plan appropriately but the last shred of integrity these fear merchants/agents of Home Depot and Publix had was burned last year during the complete joke that was "Hurricane" Matthew. And the sad thing is that a lot of people here have become so skeptical of the wall-to-wall fear mongering and totally inaccurate meteorological "science" that widespread preparations will never take place again until we are actually hit hard again.

All that said, follow or listen to John Morales at NBC 6 if you want a guy with an actual science background (and not some girl that went into meteorology as an add-on to her broadcasting/communications major at State U) and isn't afraid to tell it like it is- even if that means saying we're not going to get hit with anything.

and what is he saying?

 

[Notsince1985]

Not saying we'll never get hit again or even not to plan appropriately but the last shred of integrity these fear merchants/agents of Home Depot and Publix had was burned last year during the complete joke that was "Hurricane" Matthew. And the sad thing is that a lot of people here have become so skeptical of the wall-to-wall fear mongering and totally inaccurate meteorological "science" that widespread preparations will never take place again until we are actually hit hard again.

All that said, follow or listen to John Morales at NBC 6 if you want a guy with an actual science background (and not some girl that went into meteorology as an add-on to her broadcasting/communications major at State U) and isn't afraid to tell it like it is- even if that means saying we're not going to get hit with anything.

and what is he saying?

 

[Classic]

Do you moonlight as a meteorologist when you're not fighting on the baseball board?

This will come as a shock to you, but you don't have to be a meteorologist to know that Atlantic storms inevitably turn north.

As for the baseball board, I don't fight. I just defend the fact that I called the disaster that happened in 2017.

You're the idiot who had us canceling the FSU game last year. You suck at hurricanes.

 

[Tad Footeball]

Not saying we'll never get hit again or even not to plan appropriately but the last shred of integrity these fear merchants/agents of Home Depot and Publix had was burned last year during the complete joke that was "Hurricane" Matthew. And the sad thing is that a lot of people here have become so skeptical of the wall-to-wall fear mongering and totally inaccurate meteorological "science" that widespread preparations will never take place again until we are actually hit hard again.

All that said, follow or listen to John Morales at NBC 6 if you want a guy with an actual science background (and not some girl that went into meteorology as an add-on to her broadcasting/communications major at State U) and isn't afraid to tell it like it is- even if that means saying we're not going to get hit with anything.

and what is he saying?

View attachment 49733

Most honest guy out there. Not that some others are liars but they also conveniently justify their hype or constant warnings of dire possibilities as being in the name of public safety.

[TWEET]904780789606490113[/TWEET]

 

[Houcane]

I'm in Houston, lost most of my things to Harvey due to flooding, very little wind damage. Have family and friends in Miami and I'm hoping Irma does not hit So. Fl. Be safe, cuidense my brothers.

 

[SpikeUM]

Thanks Tad

 

[Ispyin]

What people don't understand is that the eye could basically be anywhere in that cone in the forecast, it's not saying the center path is more likely than other points within the cone which is why it is wider a few days out and narrower in when more certainty involved. It's not a bell curve of percentages.

And oh yeah about 1/3 of the time it moves outside of the cone.

Just keep paying attention, don't assume anything, realize that a direct eye hit doesn't have to hit you to **** your world up, just ask Houston and Long Island/nj

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

We just watched one, Harvey that didn't.

As soon as Harvey organized itself in the Gulf, it turned right.

Stop changing your story

My story was that Atlantic hurricanes turn north. Somehow you brought Harvey into it after Harvey was a mess until it got into the Gulf.

 

[Dingaan1828]

Cane fans know as much about hurricanes as they know about football.

 

[deleted7012]

Hopefully this thing goes south of Florida (sorry Cuba and Key West)

View attachment 49726

If it stays going west and hits La Hispaniola and Cuba it would weaken it... That would be better for us (but obviously bad for those countries)..

Most projections have it missing those islands and staying in warm waters, which would obviously feed it.

I hate to say it but this storm reminds me a little of Hurricane Andrew, although Andrew travelled north well before making a sharp turn and becoming monster, almost overnight.



Some have pointed out that Irma's path more closely resembles the 1947 Ft. Lauderdale Hurricane, which made landfall at Category 4 strength!

[TWEET]903246174034984960[/TWEET]

 

[Dan Sileo JR]

If you're not ready, get ready. That's the newest GFS model output for sunday morning. Listen to John Morales, Craig Setzer, Eric Blake, and the NWS.

 

[Cajuncane]

The reference point is looking increasingly more obvious: The Miami area needs Irma to make landfall in Cuba and remain over land as long as possible. All the proposed tracks that include Cuban landfall keep Irma away from South Florida. Irma turns north in those tracks either in the Naples area or further out into the Gulf, later threatening the panhandle.

The tracks that keep Irma just north of Cuba are the ominous ones. The expected northward turn in those models is smack toward the Miami area.

The good news is that each recent update has trended Irma closer to that Cuba landfall.

You do realize that if this thing heads north on the western side of Fla that the Miami areas are in for the worst of the storm?

The idea is to keep wherever your at to the WEST of the eye.

 

[prinmemo]

Not saying we'll never get hit again or even not to plan appropriately but the last shred of integrity these fear merchants/agents of Home Depot and Publix had was burned last year during the complete joke that was "Hurricane" Matthew. And the sad thing is that a lot of people here have become so skeptical of the wall-to-wall fear mongering and totally inaccurate meteorological "science" that widespread preparations will never take place again until we are actually hit hard again.

All that said, follow or listen to John Morales at NBC 6 if you want a guy with an actual science background (and not some girl that went into meteorology as an add-on to her broadcasting/communications major at State U) and isn't afraid to tell it like it is- even if that means saying we're not going to get hit with anything.

As someone that just went through Hurricane Harvey in Houston, I'd say better to be safe than sorry. I thought the forecast was a bunch of BS when I first found out about it (literally two days before the storm arrived in Texas), but I stocked up 2 weeks worth of food (non perishables) and water. It turns out I ended up needing about 9 days of both because although we didn't flood we couldn't get anywhere and when we could there were no supplies left.

Better to be safe than sorry.

Fair and I hope all is well (as can be) with your family. I absolutely concur with the better safe than sorry philosophy too but (and I think we experience it much more here yearly than anywhere else) the local media uses these storms as a vehicle for a week long ratings grab. The term "Cone of Destruction" alone is emblematic of their fear mongering. As I mentioned, they've done more damage to actual hurricane preparedness as a TON of people are now desensitized and won't take ANY precautions. Yeah, that's dumb but so is fear mongering for profit. I digress though- again, glad to hear a fellow Cane/Canes fan avoided the worst of Harvey.

Couldn't agree more.

Thanks!

 

[407cane]

I'm in Houston, lost most of my things to Harvey due to flooding, very little wind damage. Have family and friends in Miami and I'm hoping Irma does not hit So. Fl. Be safe, cuidense my brothers.

sorry to hear that brother, devastation there looks horrible. hoping we don't have the same fate here