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Hurricane Irma

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Let's pray that jet stream speeds up and gets here quickly. If that happens storm will go south and stay south. If it gets here later in the week it will pull this bit(h north and we will be taking it head on.
 
tcgrad1014 said:
KWConch said:
Awsi Dooger said:
KWConch said:
Awsi Dooger said:
The reference point is looking increasingly more obvious: The Miami area needs Irma to make landfall in Cuba and remain over land as long as possible. All the proposed tracks that include Cuban landfall keep Irma away from South Florida. Irma turns north in those tracks either in the Naples area or further out into the Gulf, later threatening the panhandle.

The tracks that keep Irma just north of Cuba are the ominous ones. The expected northward turn in those models is smack toward the Miami area.

The good news is that each recent update has trended Irma closer to that Cuba landfall.
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You do realize that if this thing heads north on the western side of Fla that the Miami areas are in for the worst of the storm?

The idea is to keep wherever your at to the WEST of the eye.
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Some of the models have it so far off the west coast of Florida that Miami wouldn't feel much impact. I'm not saying those are the consensus at the moment but the trend has been westerly.

Scroll to the middle of this link for the map with the "Latest GEFS Model." You'll note all the red lines well off the coast and aiming toward Tallahassee.

Hurricane Irma path update: Latest models reveal Florida threat | Weather | News | Express.co.uk

I hope that becomes the trend tomorrow with the more reliable models. Max Mayfield on Channel 10 is the best local weather guy regarding hurricanes and it's not particularly close. On the 4 PM news today Mayfield showed the current track of the Euro model and also the best American model. Currently both of them have the eye of Irma heading north and basically covering Miami at 2 PM on Sunday.
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If you live anywhere in the southern part of the state coast to coast from Key West up you better be making plans to GTF out of there.
These things are hundreds of miles wide and your banking on a computer model moving it a 1/2 degree west which is 1-15 miles max.

S. Fla is gonna take a hard lick and I'm hoping all of you guys down there take heed and batten up and get out cause this thing looks nasty.Please be safe.

As to you I'd sit there and keep hoping that it will move another half degree west so it will hit someone else.
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Get out and go where? Unless you are in a mandatory evac zone, that's horrible advice.
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North and west....if you are in S.Fla gotta believe you are gonna be in a mandatory situation cause from the looks of all the models it's coming straight up the middle of the state....
Staying there ,if this thing is a direct hit or even semi direct is crazy case your going to be without electricity for an extended length of time and things are gonna be a mess.

Hey I'm hoping it turns up the east coast out to sea and misses everyone.Doubt that's gonna happen though.All I'll say is if this does hit as a cat 4 and any of you are there you will all be in my prayers that you come through it safely.
 
KWConch said:
tcgrad1014 said:
KWConch said:
Awsi Dooger said:
KWConch said:
You do realize that if this thing heads north on the western side of Fla that the Miami areas are in for the worst of the storm?

The idea is to keep wherever your at to the WEST of the eye.
Click to expand...

Some of the models have it so far off the west coast of Florida that Miami wouldn't feel much impact. I'm not saying those are the consensus at the moment but the trend has been westerly.

Scroll to the middle of this link for the map with the "Latest GEFS Model." You'll note all the red lines well off the coast and aiming toward Tallahassee.

Hurricane Irma path update: Latest models reveal Florida threat | Weather | News | Express.co.uk

I hope that becomes the trend tomorrow with the more reliable models. Max Mayfield on Channel 10 is the best local weather guy regarding hurricanes and it's not particularly close. On the 4 PM news today Mayfield showed the current track of the Euro model and also the best American model. Currently both of them have the eye of Irma heading north and basically covering Miami at 2 PM on Sunday.
Click to expand...

If you live anywhere in the southern part of the state coast to coast from Key West up you better be making plans to GTF out of there.
These things are hundreds of miles wide and your banking on a computer model moving it a 1/2 degree west which is 1-15 miles max.

S. Fla is gonna take a hard lick and I'm hoping all of you guys down there take heed and batten up and get out cause this thing looks nasty.Please be safe.

As to you I'd sit there and keep hoping that it will move another half degree west so it will hit someone else.
Click to expand...

Get out and go where? Unless you are in a mandatory evac zone, that's horrible advice.
Click to expand...

North and west....if you are in S.Fla gotta believe you are gonna be in a mandatory situation cause from the looks of all the models it's coming straight up the middle of the state....
Staying there ,if this thing is a direct hit or even semi direct is crazy case your going to be without electricity for an extended length of time and things are gonna be a mess.

Hey I'm hoping it turns up the east coast out to sea and misses everyone.Doubt that's gonna happen though.All I'll say is if this does hit as a cat 4 and any of you are there you will all be in my prayers that you come through it safely.
Click to expand...

Wilma in 2005 was a cat 5 and the eye went right through our small town. I was in a house with a generator running everything with plenty of beer on deck. It was crazy, streets were flooded, no power for 2 weeks, trees laying across the highway and the national guard was here riding on 4 wheelers handing out food and water. All the building codes changed after that, I just built a house last year and all I have to do is close the house and lock it. I'm in the 150 mph zone.... the whole house, including all windows, doors, garage door, etc. have to hold up to winds and impact at 150 mph.
Also, our town has mandatory elevation requirements for flooding, my builder went a foot higher.
 
Last edited:
duke4heisman said:
Wilma in 2005 was a cat 5 and the eye went right through our small town. I was in a house with a generator running everything with plenty of beer on deck. It was crazy, streets were flooded, no power for 2 weeks, trees laying across the highway and the national guard was here riding on 4 wheelers handing out food and water. All the building codes changed after that, I just built a house last year and all I have to do is close the house and lock it. I'm in the 150 mph zone.... the whole house, including all windows, doors, garage door, etc. have to hold up to winds and impact at 150 mph.
Also, our town has mandatory elevation requirements for flooding, my builder went a foot higher.
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That's good planning duke. Stay safe.
 
most recent model as of 8pm EST


y3x525P.webp
 
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You guys see the radar from this thing it's scary.

Sent from my SM-G900T using Tapatalk
 
SoFlaSmitty said:
Let's pray that jet stream speeds up and gets here quickly. If that happens storm will go south and stay south. If it gets here later in the week it will pull this bit(h north and we will be taking it head on.
Click to expand...

The sharp guys on the weather forums are saying the southerly move is finished. Some of them are predicting Irma will start to defeat the models slightly to the north. I think that's what we should be rooting for right now, because it carries the potential for Irma to turn north east of Miami, as forecast a few days ago.

One of my theories is everything tends to drift back to the beginning. I've never applied it to weather before but now I hope it does apply. At least the word drift is apropos.
 
This is one of the better message boards devoted to weather, and with numerous guys who know the tendencies/significance of the various models. Now the models are again hinting at a more westerly path which could take Irma into the Gulf and spare South Florida the brunt:

ATL: IRMA - Models - Page 335 - STORM2K
 
Awsi Dooger said:
This is one of the better message boards devoted to weather, and with numerous guys who know the tendencies/significance of the various models. Now the models are again hinting at a more westerly path which could take Irma into the Gulf and spare South Florida the brunt:

ATL: IRMA - Models - Page 335 - STORM2K
Click to expand...

5am advisory continues the more southerly and westerly path, now has it going up the west coast of Florida.
 
Awsi Dooger said:
SoFlaSmitty said:
Let's pray that jet stream speeds up and gets here quickly. If that happens storm will go south and stay south. If it gets here later in the week it will pull this bit(h north and we will be taking it head on.
Click to expand...

The sharp guys on the weather forums are saying the southerly move is finished. Some of them are predicting Irma will start to defeat the models slightly to the north. I think that's what we should be rooting for right now, because it carries the potential for Irma to turn north east of Miami, as forecast a few days ago.

One of my theories is everything tends to drift back to the beginning. I've never applied it to weather before but now I hope it does apply. At least the word drift is apropos.
Click to expand...

With the updates the hope is now in your court. This is massive and will **** **** up
 
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I read that the eye of the storm is producing waves over 50 feet high.... that **** gets anywhere near the coast of Florida, with the same intensity smh sheesh its going to be a problem.
 
This just got upgraded to a category 5. The irony is I'm in Dallas and was supposed to go on vacation this Thursday to Florida. Nevermind.

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orange&green84 said:
This just got upgraded to a category 5. The irony is I'm in Dallas and was supposed to go on vacation this Thursday to Florida. Nevermind.

[TWEET]905039554289082368[/TWEET]
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Wow, just over an hour ago, it was a 4 with 150mph winds and was supposed to weaken to 130 by Sunday morning.
 
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