This is the inconsistency I keep seeing. If the measure of talent is recruiting interest from other programs, we should be in better shape than most. We have four 4*s and a borderline 4* in our top 8. These guys had legit SEC and Big 10 offers.
Last night was a perfect example. Our OL had a higher recruiting ranking than UF’s OL and DL. The biggest difference was age. UF starts three guys on its DL from the class of 2015. That’s five summer weight programs. Their OL, while unimpressive, was also older.
Watching the tackles in person, I saw strength issues and horrible timing with the snap. The latter is something that can improve significantly with experience. The strength can also come with the right body type, which I think they have.
Will it come together? Who knows. They aren’t there right now and there are no guarantees they will improve. But I expected major growing pains at tackle, and my only disappointment is that we didn’t do more to help them.
Our problem
How is the star thing still confusing to you?
The measure of talent is talent. Stars reflect other people’s assessment of the future potential of kids we are recruiting. They’re directionally accurate but wrong in the individual instance often enough. And they do not reflect our staff’s evals, in any case. That is why evaluations matter so much. Because once a kid gets here, it doesn’t matter what he was ranked. We find out what they can do. They may outperform or underperform or live up to expectations.
So when
@PalyCane points out our recruiting for ‘20 is underwhelming on OL right now, stars are an indication. But when a kid gets here and isn’t good, it’s pointless to insist he is talented because he was given so many stars as a prospect. Maybe he was overrated. maybe we blew the EVALUATION. Maybe he’s a bad fit for our system. Maybe Florida evaluated kids better than we do.
Stars look forward, worth whatever you want to think. Looking backwards, you see what you've got. Most here have seen our OL over years now and noticed we don’t got what we need.
Yeah, I'm not sure what point D$ is making.
1. His OP seems to indicate we're talented enough on OL, it's just that our guys need experience. I don't know what he's basing that on. Last night we saw both tackles get manhandled. And that's all we know about them right now. We know that they are capable of being manhandled.
Maybe/hopefully (I'm rooting for this as hard as anyone) D$ is correct and they become cornerstone tackles in years to come. But that's pure speculation. Sure maybe his statement is correct that: "(they can) improve (their timing) significantly with experience. The strength can also come with the right body type, which I think they have." Or maybe not. There's no evidence right now that'll be the case. Only hopeful thinking.
2. Our two best OL from 2017/2018) are the two by far the highest rated guys by the metric of how many/all top-10/20 teams wanted them. It's not a perfect metric, in that no one bats 100%, but it's the best one I'm aware of. Of the four highest rated guys, Donaldson and Sciafe are players. Herbert and Reed haven't shown anything (though Reed might). So we're 2 of 4 with the highest rated guys.
In terms of the other guys not in that top four, we're 0-fer or maybe .5-fer (Gaynor) based on last night from the pool of (Hillery, Dykstra, Gaynor, and Campbell out of the 2017/2018 guys . We have guys we had to play last night. But except for Donaldson and Sciafe (for the 2 out of 4 top guys) the three guys from the lower ranked group were varying degrees of adequate (Gaynor) to terrible (Campbell (and Nelson from 2019)). These are the guys that few if any top-10 teams wanted. Maybe things change as those guys mature (and maybe Reed matures as well giving us 3 out of 4 for the top highly sought after recruits). But right now it's more wishing on D$'s part (and mine as well) than anything evidenced based.
And remember, that in excusing Campbell's terrible performance by saying he needs time to mature it is also the case that Sciafe...the more desired recruit from the same class...played better as a true Fresh and certainly last night. And the same is true of Donaldson's fresh and soph year. Again, while not 100% certain, recruiting from the pool of the most highly sought after guys will yield the greatest probability of not having to witness what we saw last night.
D$ every year you have a tendency to project the potential and future of our guys beyond what the evidence suggests. And then, after the fact you acknowledge the problems that you had previously argued away, as you're doing now. We don't want our OL to come form a pool of Hillery, Dykstra, Gaynor, Campbell and Nelson. It's not clear that any of them are top-10 team caliber OL. We want our OL to come from a pool of Donaldson, Sciafe, Reed and Herbert. At least from the latter group we're batting :500 in terms of top-10 team OL. with the former group we're batting .5 out of 4 (nic Nelson as he's a true fresh) so far.
3. This then should all culminate with an honest discussion about the probability we can build an OL worthy of our top-10 aspirations by recruiting guys like the lower two ranked recruits in the 2020 class. D$ thinks we can return to top-10 status by recruiting those guys, who are similar in terms of their (lack of) desirability by top-10 programs to guys like Hillery, Dykstra, Gaynor, Campbell and Nelson. I do not. Yes, some of those guys can occasionally pan out. But our experience in recent years, and so far this year, informs us that it's a low probability way of ending up with a top-10 quality OL compared to getting the Donaldson's and Sciafe's.
Again, it's not about "stars" per se, it's about the guys who coaches of top-10 programs think are good. There's been zero evidence that our recent OL coaches are smarter than top-10 team OL coaches, and better at identifying future stars out of the less desired guys. It's about probability, probility and probability.
4. Now what if we can't reliably and consistently get the Donaldson's and Sciafe's? Then we can't run the offensive system Enos is trying to run. Which I think is the case.It's not a fit given our perennial OL woes. But that's a whole 'nother story