This is what gets Miami fans “in trouble”:
1. Under the radar kid has great measurables out of HS. This generates a measure of expectation with him before he’s stepped onto the field.
2. In his first season on the field he starts to deliver on some of that promise. Projections start to settle in, a benchmark is established for his freshman/RS freshman year. This benchmark is fluid, really only requiring the kid to make a handful of key plays to justify his lofty college projection. (Amari Carter is a recent example.) We start to see his future and, this is the first key mistake, project a track of improvement. This track is often inaccurate, assuming a steady rate of growth in a human being who has limited (not small, just not unlimited) means of improvement.
3. The second critical error: after 1 possibly legitimate season we marry the track of improvement with an NFL projection. That projection is almost always “if he keeps improving, with his size, he could be a 1st rounder.” It’s not **** to say, “JJ needs to keep improving at a steady rate and have a favorably thin class at his position to get drafted on day 2.” Nobody says that, ever.
4. We do not reevaluate our expectations as that “projected player” fails to materialize. Mike Jack did not have a great year. It was fine, it was not what I personally expected. But I said to myself, “his size is an NFL ideal, it was just a down year, he’s a second day guy.” And he may have a career that reflects that, but I should’ve downgraded my expectations of his slot. Stacy Coley goes here, etc. We are quick to raise our projection on a guy, but slow to lower it. That’s just being a fan.
5. Guys like Willis artificially weigh down the outlook of a class. There’s no way to project that fall, it makes no sense. Couple that with guys sliding down a round or two later than we all expect and suddenly it looks like you overrate your players. Ultimately, I don’t think we do more than any other fan base. In fact, maintain that we are our own harshest critics, on the whole.
