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Give me our chances vs UF

canecrazy23 said:
Cway is the type of guy who would walk into a bedroom and see a perfect 10 and stop in his tracks because she has a birthmark on her ankle. LOL
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Of all the people on the board, thats the one I would like to meet. The way he moves, this MFer better be as successful as Elon Musk and look like Denzel Washington.
 
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Brooklyndee said:
Personally I think while a mobile QB was definitely an advantage against them, considering our circumstances, Dawson would be an idiot to allow cam to get upfield any more than necessary. Our year and to some extent our future, is dependent on cams success. That boy gets hurt and we're just flat out ****ed. Limit risks especially in the sec where you can trust that refs will allow them to get away with murder. They will be playing dirty. Not only cause that's the usual but because the money follows the sec success. We're one of the biggest threats to that success. That **** is real. We have more than enough weapons to have those same results out of the short passing game. Personally I think ray ray will have a huge game. If he doesn't get those opportunities than jacobi will.
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It'll be ACC refs...but your point still stands. UM has always had to play against the refs, no matter what conference they're from.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Things that make me skeptical:

- Mario's in-game coaching decisions. Perhaps this is mitigated by Bonehead Billy, it's not like he's Vince Lombardi himself, but this is going to be a pressure-cooker and it's going to be happening fast, at high volume. Can Mario think his way through the game. Can we not burn timeouts? Can we win the Middle 8? Can we manage the clock correctly on offense and defense at the end of halves? Can we avoid basic mistakes (dudes on the field with the same jersey number, too many men on the field, unforced errors on offense due to noise, etc).
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If the GT game fiasco hadn't happened, this wouldn't really have made the list.
 
I spoke to the UFbarstool guy to get his feel on the team as well as ours and here are a few points:

- They are worried about Cam Ward, he wonders if Mario will handicap him at all but knows Ward is a huge step above TVD

- He believes Graham Mertz won’t have much trouble picking our secondary apart considering his stats from last year going something like 70% completion with a 25/3 TD/INT ratio (although other real test is their OL vs our DL) he feels this will be an offensive battle

- asked him his top two strongest and weakest positions based on his opinion and knowledge and he feels that the STRONGEST positions for them are: RB & LBs, he is very high on Montreal Johnson and Treyvaun Webb

Weakest: WR/TE, says outside of the top 2 he is concerned about their ability to be productive.

- thinks the swamp will be a very tough environment for Miami but thinks it would’ve been better served as a night game but expects Homefield to be a huge factor.

This game is at our advantage in a sense that their weakness goes against our weakness. Not gonna lie i feel our secondary can be masked by strong DL play against their OL.

If we don’t come out shell shocked from the environment I think we win comfortably.
 
Felonious Monk said:
If the GT game fiasco hadn't happened, this wouldn't really have made the list.
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You know what dude? - you're mostly right.

I hate on Mario's GD coaching alot without knowing what I am looking at from an X&O's or backend perspective -

I am a casual, but too invested fan that is mope AF.

I get the hindsight on WTF ELSE were Dawson/Mario gonna do in 23 when TVD went full tar-tar and the bench& rest off that side was thin and low-mids?

I bank a lot of my mope-ventory for this year on the ill-timed injuries to key players, BC as a casual fan/mope, I has a seent it rear almost every year for 20ish - with mids coaching and paper tiger talent.

I want to remember that his clock management besides GT has been about on par with Radio's, Fraudlen's, Rekt's and Mandy's. Someone correct me?

Cautiously optimistic with this Roster and the green shoots we saw with coords last year.

Love Guidry, can't hate on Dawson yet.

Talent is surely better - abso-kudos to Mario for that.

I see this opener going any-which way and wann be hype like 4-0 in 23, but backed up by real talnet and execution.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Things that make me incredibly optimistic:

- They don't have the consistent pass rush to bother Cam, and with ample time, I LOVE our WRs and TEs against their DBs and backers. Their fans will tell you their DBs were young last year and they'll be a lot better, and they did add 4 portal kids, but even a MASSIVE improvement still has them as a pretty average unit. They were 111th in the country in passer rating allowed last year. They were 122nd in Yards Per Pass allowed. They only intercepted THREE passes all year, which was tied for 2nd fewest in America. Only Temple had the same and LA Tech had less. They were literally absolutely awful in every single metric of pass defense, which makes sense considering they were 90th in the country in sacks per game. And their best pass-rusher now lives in Oxford. If Cam doesn't throw for 300 yards in this game, we failed miserably.

- Mertz is a statue, and our EDGE group might be the best in the country. Billy plays small ball, and I'm sure will continue to do so here, but if we can get a lead and make them have to try to throw downfield, our kids will eat on the edge

- I don't want this to matter, because we need sixes and not threes, but we have maybe the best kicker in the country

- Damien Martinez is a legit back and the gator was 116th in the country in yards per rush allowed last year. Ray Davis ran for 280 yards against them. Rocket Sanders had over 100. Cody Schrader had almost 150. Mario Anderson had almost 100. And mobile QBs crushed them....Jayden Daniels won the **** Heisman running circles around them. The backs and the QB should be able to find room.

- Overall talent. I think we're better on both lines, and while I do think it'll be a challenge to stop Johnson, they have zero running threat with the QB (unless Billy has a package for Lagway)

Things that make me skeptical:

- It's game 1, we have a ton of new guys, and it's on the road in the most hostile environment we'll see all year. Can we play mistake free enough to allow the talent to win out, or will we make dumb mistakes amplified by the noise and gift them free drives/points?

- As much as we **** on Mertz and their offense, IMO this will be one of the 3 best offenses we see all year. That's more of an indictment on our pitiful schedule than them being an offensive juggernaut, but my point remains. Can we keep momentum on our side and limit them offensively? I don't see them scoring 30, but we have to make sure that doesn't happen

- Our secondary, most notably communication and tackling. Again, it's game 1, and these kids haven't ever played together. Can we avoid massive coverage busts that give them gift-wrapped huge gains? And can we rally to the ball and tackle? Tre Wilson is really good, but if they have him in the same role as last year, his average depth of target was like 1 yard. Can we run to the football and get him on the ground with the back 7 group? Or does he make us look like Optimist kids like Kadarius Toney did in 2019?

- Mario's in-game coaching decisions. Perhaps this is mitigated by Bonehead Billy, it's not like he's Vince Lombardi himself, but this is going to be a pressure-cooker and it's going to be happening fast, at high volume. Can Mario think his way through the game. Can we not burn timeouts? Can we win the Middle 8? Can we manage the clock correctly on offense and defense at the end of halves? Can we avoid basic mistakes (dudes on the field with the same jersey number, too many men on the field, unforced errors on offense due to noise, etc).

So again, both teams will make mistakes. They're college kids in a really intense game and it's the first one of the season. But how egregious are ours, and how many are there? Is our mistake a kid running the wrong route and the ball falls incomplete? Or is it Ward trying to audible and the line isn't on the same page and the ball is snapped early and it's a 20 yard loss that turns into a turnover via fumble? That type of stuff. I don't expect our A+ game. It'd be nice, but I don't demand that. But IMO, if we play our B+ game, they can't beat us. So just calm down, execute for the most part, tackle them when their playmakers are in space, and I think this is a dub.
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I would put FSU, Louisville (if QB is healthy), USF, VaTech and Syracuse offenses over UF
 
StevoBevo said:
I spoke to the UFbarstool guy to get his feel on the team as well as ours and here are a few points:

- They are worried about Cam Ward, he wonders if Mario will handicap him at all but knows Ward is a huge step above TVD

- He believes Graham Mertz won’t have much trouble picking our secondary apart considering his stats from last year going something like 70% completion with a 25/3 TD/INT ratio (although other real test is their OL vs our DL) he feels this will be an offensive battle

- asked him his top two strongest and weakest positions based on his opinion and knowledge and he feels that the STRONGEST positions for them are: RB & LBs, he is very high on Montreal Johnson and Treyvaun Webb

Weakest: WR/TE, says outside of the top 2 he is concerned about their ability to be productive.

- thinks the swamp will be a very tough environment for Miami but thinks it would’ve been better served as a night game but expects Homefield to be a huge factor.

This game is at our advantage in a sense that their weakness goes against our weakness. Not gonna lie i feel our secondary can be masked by strong DL play against their OL.

If we don’t come out shell shocked from the environment I think we win comfortably.
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Got it. So they’re weak at WR and TE but Martz is gonna pick us apart

Typical throwing **** against the wall on a micro level and not realizing how dumb the macro sounds
 
harphong said:
You know what dude? - you're mostly right.

I hate on Mario's GD coaching alot without knowing what I am looking at from an X&O's or backend perspective -

I am a casual, but too invested fan that is mope AF.

I get the hindsight on WTF ELSE were Dawson/Mario gonna do in 23 when TVD went full tar-tar and the bench& rest off that side was thin and low-mids?

I bank a lot of my mope-ventory for this year on the ill-timed injuries to key players, BC as a casual fan/mope, I has a seent it rear almost every year for 20ish - with mids coaching and paper tiger talent.

I want to remember that his clock management besides GT has been about on par with Radio's, Fraudlen's, Rekt's and Mandy's. Someone correct me?

Cautiously optimistic with this Roster and the green shoots we saw with coords last year.

Love Guidry, can't hate on Dawson yet.

Talent is surely better - abso-kudos to Mario for that.

I see this opener going any-which way and wann be hype like 4-0 in 23, but backed up by real talnet and execution.
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I mean, he's had clock issues before, but if the season hinges on one bad decision, the problems are deeper than just that.

I trust Mario to get the right roster. I know he'll try to get the best staff he can. I know he wants to win and will do an honest assessment of his weaknesses and do what it takes to shore them up.

Are all the pieces in place? I'm not confident enough to say yes, because I've been burned every single time I thought they were. But I **** sure can't find a reason to say they aren't.
 
JHallCanes said:
Got it. So they’re weak at WR and TE but Martz is gonna pick us apart

Typical throwing **** against the wall on a micro level and not realizing how dumb the macro sounds
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Honeslty I expect a lottttt of dumping and drinking. Outside of their top 2 WRs it’s a lot of ??? And I’m not sure they will find their answers before game 1

I’d guess Mertz will have a stat line similar to:

25/32 202 Yards 1 TD 2 INT 4 sacks (3 come in the second half playing catch-up) and I bet his YPA will be lower than last year
 
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JHallCanes said:
Got it. So they’re weak at WR and TE but Martz is gonna pick us apart

Typical throwing **** against the wall on a micro level and not realizing how dumb the macro sounds
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Exactly.

They lost Pearsall and Etienne, but Mertz is going to kill us...

And, yes, they got Badger.


1721065880932.webp
 
Novacane32000 said:
Let's face reality. The SEC is very top heavy and good almost from top to bottom.

Bama
Georgia
LSU
Texas
Oklahoma

Then you have middle of the road SEC teams that would be consider upper end in the ACC

Tenn
Florida
Auburn
Ole Miss
Mizz
TXAM
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I was referring to the conference prior to the addition of Texas. The Acc has pretty much won head to head matchups against the mighty sec in the regular season over the last two years.

We should be a upper end team in this conference but hopefully this is the year we start to put things together
 
StevoBevo said:
Honeslty I expect a lottttt of dumping and drinking. Outside of their top 2 WRs it’s a lot of ??? And I’m not sure they will find their answers before game 1

I’d guess Mertz will have a stat line similar to:

25/32 202 Yards 1 TD 2 INT 4 sacks (3 come in the second half playing catch-up) and I bet his YPA will be lower than last year
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I gotta be honest man, if you can throw some money down on that stat line you might hit some serious juice. Ideally that’s exactly what it should look like at the end
 
Novacane32000 said:
"Florida was one of the worst teams defensively last year. I don't know how that gets fixed for game 1. Sure, they should be better than last year, but how much do they improve for game 1 2024? Florida was 70th against the pass and 79th against the run. I expect improvement, but I don't see that team breaking into the top 20 in either category".

The Gator D was not good but you have to consider the competition which is why college stats are so relative. Hard to say this but the truth is facing a schedule full of SEC teams will skew your stats vs facing teams from the ACC.

Also with the portal these days , teams can and do look completely different from one season to the next. Hopefully the UF D has not improved much but that is yet to be seen.
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I here you, but I don't assume every team or even a majority of SEC teams were better than any other conference. In 2024, no question, but last year UF gave up more rushing yards to Kentucky, Arkansas, LSU,and Missouri than they did to UGA (177). South Carolina (152) was the 6th of 7 SEC teams to rush for over 100+. Vanderbilt was the only SEC opponent that didn't rush for 100+ against the Gator. However, Vandy averaged 3.5/carry which was more than Tennessee (3.3/carry) did against the Gator. They only ran it 19 times. A few more carries and they would have rushed for 100+ as well.

I'm betting Miami rushes for 200+. I don't even think it will be difficult. Martinez goes for 100+. Bring in Chris Johnson in 3rd and 4th quarters when the Gator is tired, and he's going house at least one 50+TD. CJ may go for 100+ on < 10 carries. Yes, I'm drinking the kool-aid. Grape flavor of course.
 
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Dwinstitles said:
turnovers are the wild card, is CW hot this game (pause) or does he catch the TVD. All depends on that IMO
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That’s the most important. But we can put the game out of reach just by having a stout front seven on D, too. Ward doesn’t “have to” win this game if we **** their RB down and generate a pass rush.
 
Brooklyndee said:
. the key to mertz is making him play outside the pocket or not be able to step into his throws. That'll also be a tremendous help to our safety group. If that happens we win by three touchdowns. If we don't then we probably play a lil more ball control and win by 11 or so. 28-17
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That’s what I saw in reviewing 3 condensed games of him on YouTube. He’s much better than we’re giving him credit for if he has time. But he needs to plant when he’s scrambling. If we keep him from doing that he’s dead meat.

A lot rides on the interior getting a push to feed Mertz to the DEs. I definitely see us going fast package to improve our pressure inside.

Agree we can Clemson this game, it almost worked v FSU too. But the play is to shut down their RB and pressure Mertz. Then we win handily.
 
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StevoBevo said:
I spoke to the UFbarstool guy to get his feel on the team as well as ours and here are a few points:

- They are worried about Cam Ward, he wonders if Mario will handicap him at all but knows Ward is a huge step above TVD

- He believes Graham Mertz won’t have much trouble picking our secondary apart considering his stats from last year going something like 70% completion with a 25/3 TD/INT ratio (although other real test is their OL vs our DL) he feels this will be an offensive battle

- asked him his top two strongest and weakest positions based on his opinion and knowledge and he feels that the STRONGEST positions for them are: RB & LBs, he is very high on Montreal Johnson and Treyvaun Webb

Weakest: WR/TE, says outside of the top 2 he is concerned about their ability to be productive.

- thinks the swamp will be a very tough environment for Miami but thinks it would’ve been better served as a night game but expects Homefield to be a huge factor.

This game is at our advantage in a sense that their weakness goes against our weakness. Not gonna lie i feel our secondary can be masked by strong DL play against their OL.

If we don’t come out shell shocked from the environment I think we win comfortably.
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Barstool are *** clowns too. They mention hertz picking apart our secondary, & back it up with last seasons stats. Well an issue or two with that. 90% (slight exaggeration) of the success hertz had last year was to Ricky pearsal. Who was we know is gone. He keyed on pearsal like Tyler keyed on x. Main difference was pearsal is more explosive than x. He could beat you underneath, intermediate or on occasion long. But that was basically his only threat that they would stretch the field with. Basically everyone else he'd simply throw underneath or timing routes too. Nothing more then 10 yards down field. At that depth you'd hope well be playing bump to give the line a sec or two longer to get home & the safeties more ability to read a route. Point is his success or failure shouldn't come at the cost of the secondary because the only real concern in him is with underneath or crossing routes.
 
Brooklyndee said:
Barstool are *** clowns too. They mention hertz picking apart our secondary, & back it up with last seasons stats. Well an issue or two with that. 90% (slight exaggeration) of the success hertz had last year was to Ricky pearsal. Who was we know is gone. He keyed on pearsal like Tyler keyed on x. Main difference was pearsal is more explosive than x. He could beat you underneath, intermediate or on occasion long. But that was basically his only threat that they would stretch the field with. Basically everyone else he'd simply throw underneath or timing routes too. Nothing more then 10 yards down field. At that depth you'd hope well be playing bump to give the line a sec or two longer to get home & the safeties more ability to read a route. Point is his success or failure shouldn't come at the cost of the secondary because the only real concern in him is with underneath or crossing routes.
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How you feel about our secondary depth? Safety still has me sweating a little bit. I'm good with Powell but would've rather we use him at multiple spots instead of having him stay at safety out of necessity.

Earlier you posted about Cam's importance and I couldn't agree more. If he goes down, its gonna create a catastrophic snowball effect. But he plays to his potential, the same can be said in the other direction. A strong argument could be made that he's one the most important players we've ever had. The gator is going to TRY to hurt him.
 
Brooklyndee said:
Barstool are *** clowns too. They mention hertz picking apart our secondary, & back it up with last seasons stats. Well an issue or two with that. 90% (slight exaggeration) of the success hertz had last year was to Ricky pearsal. Who was we know is gone. He keyed on pearsal like Tyler keyed on x. Main difference was pearsal is more explosive than x. He could beat you underneath, intermediate or on occasion long. But that was basically his only threat that they would stretch the field with. Basically everyone else he'd simply throw underneath or timing routes too. Nothing more then 10 yards down field. At that depth you'd hope well be playing bump to give the line a sec or two longer to get home & the safeties more ability to read a route. Point is his success or failure shouldn't come at the cost of the secondary because the only real concern in him is with underneath or crossing routes.
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Completely correct.

Florida's passing game was ENTIRELY short **** with some YAC.

Pearsall had 65 catches (most on team) and averaged 14.8 yards per catch. Eugene Wilson had 61 catches (2nd on team) for 8.8 yards per catch. Pearsall was getting 68% more yards per catch than Wilson.

By the way, 10 of Mertz's 20 TD passes went to those two guys, one of whom is gone.
 
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