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Give me our chances vs UF

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Brooklyndee said:
That's not true. Cause mertz is consistent enough on short routes that if our safeties don't play up to their potential we could have an issue. I think their offense will be hit or miss. But at the end of the day I think we put up 40 or **** close on them. Im hoping our tackle group can get upfield consistently enough. That's the key to mertz is making him play outside the pocket or not be able to step into his throws. That'll also be a tremendous help to our safety group. If that happens we win by three touchdowns. If we don't then we probably play a lil more ball control and win by 11 or so. 28-17

Mario is telling us the optics are important in this one. We don't just wanna win. We wanna skin em. Just hoping all the new pieces gel in time.
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Things that make me incredibly optimistic:

- They don't have the consistent pass rush to bother Cam, and with ample time, I LOVE our WRs and TEs against their DBs and backers. Their fans will tell you their DBs were young last year and they'll be a lot better, and they did add 4 portal kids, but even a MASSIVE improvement still has them as a pretty average unit. They were 111th in the country in passer rating allowed last year. They were 122nd in Yards Per Pass allowed. They only intercepted THREE passes all year, which was tied for 2nd fewest in America. Only Temple had the same and LA Tech had less. They were literally absolutely awful in every single metric of pass defense, which makes sense considering they were 90th in the country in sacks per game. And their best pass-rusher now lives in Oxford. If Cam doesn't throw for 300 yards in this game, we failed miserably.

- Mertz is a statue, and our EDGE group might be the best in the country. Billy plays small ball, and I'm sure will continue to do so here, but if we can get a lead and make them have to try to throw downfield, our kids will eat on the edge

- I don't want this to matter, because we need sixes and not threes, but we have maybe the best kicker in the country

- Damien Martinez is a legit back and the gator was 116th in the country in yards per rush allowed last year. Ray Davis ran for 280 yards against them. Rocket Sanders had over 100. Cody Schrader had almost 150. Mario Anderson had almost 100. And mobile QBs crushed them....Jayden Daniels won the **** Heisman running circles around them. The backs and the QB should be able to find room.

- Overall talent. I think we're better on both lines, and while I do think it'll be a challenge to stop Johnson, they have zero running threat with the QB (unless Billy has a package for Lagway)

Things that make me skeptical:

- It's game 1, we have a ton of new guys, and it's on the road in the most hostile environment we'll see all year. Can we play mistake free enough to allow the talent to win out, or will we make dumb mistakes amplified by the noise and gift them free drives/points?

- As much as we **** on Mertz and their offense, IMO this will be one of the 3 best offenses we see all year. That's more of an indictment on our pitiful schedule than them being an offensive juggernaut, but my point remains. Can we keep momentum on our side and limit them offensively? I don't see them scoring 30, but we have to make sure that doesn't happen

- Our secondary, most notably communication and tackling. Again, it's game 1, and these kids haven't ever played together. Can we avoid massive coverage busts that give them gift-wrapped huge gains? And can we rally to the ball and tackle? Tre Wilson is really good, but if they have him in the same role as last year, his average depth of target was like 1 yard. Can we run to the football and get him on the ground with the back 7 group? Or does he make us look like Optimist kids like Kadarius Toney did in 2019?

- Mario's in-game coaching decisions. Perhaps this is mitigated by Bonehead Billy, it's not like he's Vince Lombardi himself, but this is going to be a pressure-cooker and it's going to be happening fast, at high volume. Can Mario think his way through the game. Can we not burn timeouts? Can we win the Middle 8? Can we manage the clock correctly on offense and defense at the end of halves? Can we avoid basic mistakes (dudes on the field with the same jersey number, too many men on the field, unforced errors on offense due to noise, etc).

So again, both teams will make mistakes. They're college kids in a really intense game and it's the first one of the season. But how egregious are ours, and how many are there? Is our mistake a kid running the wrong route and the ball falls incomplete? Or is it Ward trying to audible and the line isn't on the same page and the ball is snapped early and it's a 20 yard loss that turns into a turnover via fumble? That type of stuff. I don't expect our A+ game. It'd be nice, but I don't demand that. But IMO, if we play our B+ game, they can't beat us. So just calm down, execute for the most part, tackle them when their playmakers are in space, and I think this is a dub.
 
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cway313 said:
I think you were understating how important wins are for swaying a fanbase. You said hopefully thats all it takes. I can assure you that if we weren't 12-13 support would be flowing heavily. We have 20 years of ****** coaching and ineptitude from the administration that prevents the benefit of doubt. Negativity will be here until we win something meaningful but the majority just want to see winning. 2017 was far from perfect but Richt went mostly unscathed.
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I think you're overstating the value of a fanbase to a coach who has far bigger concerns at hand. I'll let you know all that matters to Mario is his own bar for us. Results come last in a rebuild. If we would've focused on results we'd still be dealing with more of the usual. It's not difficult to pull in 9 or 10 wins in a season. (Ask fspoo )It's doing it consistently where the problem comes in. Far as these 20 years of ****** coaching, the casual fan knows nothing but twenty years of results. There hasn't been the same problems throughout the years. Rather there's been various problems that have gave us the results we've seen. Y'all complain about 12-13 because again all you know is wins and losses. Ultimately I understand. Fans aren't supposed to know what goes into those Ws. That's why people like you bring up Mandy's record while he was here and say he was doing just as good or better. Because casual fans don't know the product on the field from a hole in their ***. You don't understand that then just go watch a game at hard rock. Tell me (assuming you're not just full of ****) that those people in large part don't simply go for a social experience. That's why our fanbase is fickle & complain about fizical ball. Cause they go to get drunk & tailgate, they go to pick up chicks, they go to sing songs and dance to **** the worst most out of touch dj in America plays, to see themselves on a jumbotron... So what is it? Is it the wins and the record that matters (like you keep trying to say) or is it seeing the offense clicking on all cylinders. Chunk plays down field exciting football. Cause I could swear it's Mario plays fyzical broball... Hence why I say I don't really care about the thoughts of a casual fan since they can't understand what's happening on the field. You know what an offense does when it's got numerous holes(especially at the QB position)? It plays bro ball. That's how the game works. Simple. Cause the Ws do matter more than how you achieve them.
 
Brooklyndee said:
That's not true. Cause mertz is consistent enough on short routes that if our safeties don't play up to their potential we could have an issue. I think their offense will be hit or miss. But at the end of the day I think we put up 40 or **** close on them. Im hoping our tackle group can get upfield consistently enough. That's the key to mertz is making him play outside the pocket or not be able to step into his throws. That'll also be a tremendous help to our safety group. If that happens we win by three touchdowns. If we don't then we probably play a lil more ball control and win by 11 or so. 28-17

Mario is telling us the optics are important in this one. We don't just wanna win. We wanna skin em. Just hoping all the new pieces gel in time.
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If they can’t get their running game going, they’re stuck. The had one game where they averaged under 4 yards per carry and scored more than 22 points last year (USCe). Their offense works best when they can control the run game and compliment it with the pass. If they need Mertz to carry them, they have no shot.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Things that make me incredibly optimistic:

- They don't have the consistent pass rush to bother Cam, and with ample time, I LOVE our WRs and TEs against their DBs and backers

- Mertz is a statue, and our EDGE group might be the best in the country. Billy plays small ball, and I'm sure will continue to do so here, but if we can get a lead and make them have to try to throw downfield, our kids will eat on the edge

- I don't want this to matter, because we need sixes and not threes, but we have maybe the best kicker in the country

- Damien Martinez is a legit back and the gator was 116th in the country in yards per rush allowed last year. Ray Davis ran for 280 yards against them. Rocket Sanders had over 100. Cody Schrader had almost 150. Mario Anderson had almost 100. And mobile QBs crushed them....Jayden Daniels won the **** Heisman running circles around them. The backs and the QB should be able to find room.

- Overall talent. I think we're better on both lines, and while I do think it'll be a challenge to stop Johnson, they have zero running threat with the QB (unless Billy has a package for Lagway)

Things that make me skeptical:

- It's game 1, we have a ton of new guys, and it's on the road in the most hostile environment we'll see all year. Can we play mistake free enough to allow the talent to win out, or will we make dumb mistakes amplified by the noise and gift them free drives/points?

- As much as we **** on Mertz and their offense, IMO this will be one of the 3 best offenses we see all year. That's more of an indictment on our pitiful schedule than them being an offensive juggernaut, but my point remains. Can we keep momentum on our side and limit them offensively? I don't see them scoring 30, but we have to make sure that doesn't happen

- Our secondary, most notably communication and tackling. Again, it's game 1, and these kids haven't ever played together. Can we avoid massive coverage busts that give them gift-wrapped huge gains? And can we rally to the ball and tackle? Tre Wilson is really good, but if they have him in the same role as last year, his average depth of target was like 1 yard. Can we run to the football and get him on the ground with the back 7 group? Or does he make us look like Optimist kids like Kadarius Toney did in 2019?

- Mario's in-game coaching decisions. Perhaps this is mitigated by Bonehead Billy, it's not like he's Vince Lombardi himself, but this is going to be a pressure-cooker and it's going to be happening fast, at high volume. Can Mario think his way through the game. Can we not burn timeouts? Can we win the Middle 8? Can we manage the clock correctly on offense and defense at the end of halves? Can we avoid basic mistakes (dudes on the field with the same jersey number, too many men on the field, unforced errors on offense due to noise, etc).

So again, both teams will make mistakes. They're college kids in a really intense game and it's the first one of the season. But how egregious are ours, and how many are there? Is our mistake a kid running the wrong route and the ball falls incomplete? Or is it Ward trying to audible and the line isn't on the same page and the ball is snapped early and it's a 20 yard loss that turns into a turnover via fumble? That type of stuff. I don't expect our A+ game. It'd be nice, but I don't demand that. But IMO, if we play our B+ game, they can't beat us. So just calm down, execute for the most part, tackle them when their playmakers are in space, and I think this is a dub.
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Very good breakdown hermano. One thing I'd add is that while their run defense was atrocious, most of those results came against zone blocking schemes. We don't employ that. So I'm a lil less sure of results there. Hopefully our aggression and mobility allows us to take advantage there.



Oh & I'm positive lagway is gonna have a substantial role in this game. If he doesn't then Napier is even worse then I've always believed.
 
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htownkidd said:
If we beat them 42-17, ya’ll will hear about me on the national news the following morning.
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IMG_5877.webp
 
Brooklyndee said:
Very good breakdown hermano. One thing I'd add is that while their run defense was atrocious, most of those results came against zone blocking schemes. We don't employ that. So I'm a lil less sure of results there. Hopefully our aggression and mobility allows us to take advantage there.
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Agreed, and I mentioned the QB numbers they allowed. I don't really want to see Ward running a ton, but with how badly they struggled last year, IMO it's malpractice to not deploy some either designed runs or quick route-combinations and have the direction to Cam be two quick reads if either aren't wide open, take off.

Nate Johnson had 45 yards on them.
Spencer Rattler had 46 yards.
KJ Jefferson had 92 yards.
Jayden Daniels had 234 yards (LOL).

Those were really the only 4 mobile QBs they played all year, and they all ate. Other than that, it was Brady Cook, Tate Rodemaker, Devin Leary, Carson Beck, Joe Milton and Ken Seals. So anyone who was even remotely a dual-threat had definite success. I hope the staff realizes this and uses Cam's legs to our advantage.
 
cway313 said:
I haven't brought up the knee since the GT game. At the end of the day none of that other **** matters. If he wins the fans will support him. I disagree that it had to take 3 years but I won't be dwelling on the past if we win 10+ games. Results matter even though the infrastructure may be perfect, until that produces on-field success it really isn't noteworthy. Once again I haven't said anything negative about Mario in 7 months but wins matter MOST.
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The only wins we hear about these days are his wins at Oregon, which also to me do not matter.

They mattered when we hired him. What you did at your last job is important in the hiring process. But IDGAF what he did at Oregon. I don’t care about 2022 or Georgia Tech.

This team is LOADED. The “culture” should be plenty fixed. We fixed the bad hires he made when he got here.

I wish the Florida game was tonight.
 
JHallCanes said:
The only wins we hear about these days are his wins at Oregon, which also to me do not matter.

They mattered when we hired him. What you did at your last job is important in the hiring process. But IDGAF what he did at Oregon. I don’t care about 2022 or Georgia Tech.

This team is LOADED. The “culture” should be plenty fixed. We fixed the bad hires he made when he got here.

I wish the Florida game was tonight.
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Praise The Lord Applause GIF
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
Agreed, and I mentioned the QB numbers they allowed. I don't really want to see Ward running a ton, but with how badly they struggled last year, IMO it's malpractice to not deploy some either designed runs or quick route-combinations and have the direction to Cam be two quick reads if either aren't wide open, take off.

Nate Johnson had 45 yards on them.
Spencer Rattler had 46 yards.
KJ Jefferson had 92 yards.
Jayden Daniels had 234 yards (LOL).

Those were really the only 4 mobile QBs they played all year, and they all ate. Other than that, it was Brady Cook, Tate Rodemaker, Devin Leary, Carson Beck, Joe Milton and Ken Seals. So anyone who was even remotely a dual-threat had definite success. I hope the staff realizes this and uses Cam's legs to our advantage.
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Personally I think while a mobile QB was definitely an advantage against them, considering our circumstances, Dawson would be an idiot to allow cam to get upfield any more than necessary. Our year and to some extent our future, is dependent on cams success. That boy gets hurt and we're just flat out ****ed. Limit risks especially in the sec where you can trust that refs will allow them to get away with murder. They will be playing dirty. Not only cause that's the usual but because the money follows the sec success. We're one of the biggest threats to that success. That **** is real. We have more than enough weapons to have those same results out of the short passing game. Personally I think ray ray will have a huge game. If he doesn't get those opportunities than jacobi will.
 
JHallCanes said:
The only wins we hear about these days are his wins at Oregon, which also to me do not matter.

They mattered when we hired him. What you did at your last job is important in the hiring process. But IDGAF what he did at Oregon. I don’t care about 2022 or Georgia Tech.

This team is LOADED. The “culture” should be plenty fixed. We fixed the bad hires he made when he got here.

I wish the Florida game was tonight.
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If none of those wins from the past matter when you guys constantly bring up his coaching failures then how exactly would that apply? I'd agree this team is loaded. Let's stick to this season. See how long that lasts. #10daysofmadness what have you guys already labeled it? More like 4 days? Lmfao. Never seen so many entitled people who simply disregard where we were just a few short years ago. In case you didn't pick up on it brother, that was the larger point.
 
Brooklyndee said:
If none of those wins from the past matter when you guys constantly bring up his coaching failures then how exactly would that apply? I'd agree this team is loaded. Let's stick to this season. See how long that lasts. #10daysofmadness what have you guys already labeled it? More like 4 days? Lmfao. Never seen so many entitled people who simply disregard where we were just a few short years ago. In case you didn't pick up on it brother, that was the larger point.
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Last summer I was in a frenzy over lackluster recruiting results. This year I am in wait and see mode. I've seen positives and negatives but truly only care about 8/31. We've heard for 3 years if we win class will be crazy. Let's focus on the winning.
 
JHallCanes said:
This team is LOADED. The “culture” should be plenty fixed. He fixed the bad hires he made when he got here. Even though we all initially loved them...
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As we all know those hires in hindsight weren't what we needed. His problem was he built a staff that was put together for an established squad. They weren't built for a team where they had to do everything from scratch. Possibly he didn't realize the extent of the issues at hand OR maybe he just didn't realize that staff wasn't bought into that level of work for such old & established dudes. As we all know they were named that had been around forever. Young coaches aren't scared to put in that work cause they need to prove themselves. They're just as hungry as the players trying to prove themselves cause it's their futures they fighting for as well. Not an excuse. Just reality for what occurred. But let's all stop acting like anyone other than gattis raised any alarms at all. It was widely considered an all star staff throughout college football. If we had this team moving forward with that staff it wouldn't be the same narrative.
 
cway313 said:
Last summer I was in a frenzy over lackluster recruiting results. This year I am in wait and see mode. I've seen positives and negatives but truly only care about 8/31. We've heard for 3 years if we win class will be crazy. Let's focus on the winning.
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Well since you mentioned it that's the perfect example of why if you don't know **** you should just stick to what you do know. Plenty of us told you there was a a plan in place for recruiting and just relax. That we would have a top class at the end of the day. You and ur crew did the usual but but but we can't land this and we can't get that. Mario can't recruit either... Than didn't even acknowledge y'all just ran ur mouths for no **** reason.

Maybe use that as an example and realize Mario has done this previously. He understands what's necessary. Only varying factors are nil (which we've definitely got ahead of the curve on)& the portal which is largely dependent on nil. Let the dude work.


Classes weren't crazy enough for you? **** results & we still should've had back to back top 3 classes...
 
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Brooklyndee said:
Well since you mentioned it that's the perfect example of why if you don't know **** you should just stick to what you do know. Plenty of us told you there was a a plan in place for recruiting and just relax. That we would have a top class at the end of the day. You and ur crew did the usual but but but we can't land this and we can't get that. Mario can't recruit either... Than didn't even acknowledge y'all just ran ur mouths for no **** reason.

Maybe use that as an example and realize Mario has done this previously. He understands what's necessary. Only varying factors are nil (which we've definitely got ahead of the curve on)& the portal which is largely dependent on nil. Let the dude work.
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This crew **** is weird frfr. I'm a team of one but I don't see last years class as a total success. I did own up to my Joe slander but I won't pretend that I didn't have issues with the QB, OL, TE, DB recruiting in last years class. It is what it is at this point. Signing Ward was the first real sign I saw that gave me hope. That class ranking **** doesn't tell a full story but lesson learned.
 
Brooklyndee said:
Well since you mentioned it that's the perfect example of why if you don't know **** you should just stick to what you do know. Plenty of us told you there was a a plan in place for recruiting and just relax. That we would have a top class at the end of the day. You and ur crew did the usual but but but we can't land this and we can't get that. Mario can't recruit either... Than didn't even acknowledge y'all just ran ur mouths for no **** reason.

Maybe use that as an example and realize Mario has done this previously. He understands what's necessary. Only varying factors are nil (which we've definitely got ahead of the curve on)& the portal which is largely dependent on nil. Let the dude work.


Classes weren't crazy enough for you? **** results & we still should've had back to back top 3 classes...
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Cway is the type of guy who would walk into a bedroom and see a perfect 10 and stop in his tracks because she has a birthmark on her ankle. LOL
 
kyle_schick said:
- Personal fouls (George, Brown, backups on ST)

- Mario's clock management/timeout usage

- Tuff n fyzical play calling (jamming Martinez up the middle on obvious designed runs with no misdirection while being outnumbered in the box)

- Playing so close that it allows the refs to make questionable calls

- Clueless new safeties getting beat deep

That's what will beat us.

Cam should be able to easily carry us to victory if noone else sabotages us.
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Flynell7 said:
The sec really isn’t that amazing. Bama and Georgia carry them. LSU is good occasionally. Most conferences are top heavy
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Let's face reality. The SEC is very top heavy and good almost from top to bottom.

Bama
Georgia
LSU
Texas
Oklahoma

Then you have middle of the road SEC teams that would be consider upper end in the ACC

Tenn
Florida
Auburn
Ole Miss
Mizz
TXAM
 
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