Give me our chances vs UF

[SaiyaMan305]

I liked our run defense all year last year I was really blown away at how bad the run defense was in the bowl game. I would like to think it was due to having a backup DL. I have faith it will be sured up for Game 1.

The only person on the gators team that scares me is Eugene Wilson. Contain him and stop the run and it should be a relatively easy game.

Our offense should be fine. Florida was second to last, last year on forcing turnovers. Should be a cakewalk for the offense.

 

[Number1CanesFan]

The only wins we hear about these days are his wins at Oregon, which also to me do not matter.

They mattered when we hired him. What you did at your last job is important in the hiring process. But IDGAF what he did at Oregon. I don’t care about 2022 or Georgia Tech.

This team is LOADED. The “culture” should be plenty fixed. We fixed the bad hires he made when he got here.

I wish the Florida game was tonight.

CanesSport did a great series breakdown on the recruiting classes from 2020 -2023. There are only about 8 players on the team from the 2020 and 2021 classes. That's 8 out of 44 players. These are the classes that should be your veteran junior and senior starters in 2022 and 2023. Most of those players that left are not even at P5 schools. Here's the remaining player breakdown by class and class size:
2020 - 3/21
2021 - 5/23
2022 - 7/15
2023 - 21/26

Those 2020 and 2021 player were in years 2and 3 in Mario's 1st year. They were in year 3 and 4 last year. Couple that with Mario's portal classes that were not very good. They were mostly backups on a roster full of players that were not at the caliber Miami needed to compete at a high level. When you really look at what we had, you understand why things were so bad and how they have changed. Our roster is filled with much better players. More importantly, they have a different mindset. They fit culturally to they type of player Mario wants. The portal transfers we have are impact players with proven production. There isn't a 2024 transfer who doesn't have multiple years of proven production. This the reason why the media and fans are optimistic about the 2024 season. The roster is night and day different different.
.
More of Mario's 1st full cycle class (2023) will see the field. In 2025, Mario's 2023 class will be juniors. Their will be a smaller number of portal transfers as his full cycle blue chips will be veterans. I encourage anyone to watch those class breakdowns from CanesSport on YouTube. They did an excellent job of analyzing the recruiting classes and roster by year and its impact on our past 2 seasons.

 

[NCCanefan]

Is this a guarantee win? I don't know if Fletcher is playing but without him I feel like we might have trouble bc of the coaching staff..

Vegas has canes at 2 1/2 point favs which translates into about 55% win chance. If you think you are smarter than vegas and bet frequently enough you'll find out you aren't

 

[Calinative]

I spoke to the UFbarstool guy to get his feel on the team as well as ours and here are a few points:

- They are worried about Cam Ward, he wonders if Mario will handicap him at all but knows Ward is a huge step above TVD

- He believes Graham Mertz won’t have much trouble picking our secondary apart considering his stats from last year going something like 70% completion with a 25/3 TD/INT ratio (although other real test is their OL vs our DL) he feels this will be an offensive battle

- asked him his top two strongest and weakest positions based on his opinion and knowledge and he feels that the STRONGEST positions for them are: RB & LBs, he is very high on Montreal Johnson and Treyvaun Webb

Weakest: WR/TE, says outside of the top 2 he is concerned about their ability to be productive.

- thinks the swamp will be a very tough environment for Miami but thinks it would’ve been better served as a night game but expects Homefield to be a huge factor.

This game is at our advantage in a sense that their weakness goes against our weakness. Not gonna lie i feel our secondary can be masked by strong DL play against their OL.

If we don’t come out shell shocked from the environment I think we win comfortably.

Barstool is purely for entertainment not real info/breakdowns whatsoever.

 

[Number1CanesFan]

That’s the most important. But we can put the game out of reach just by having a stout front seven on D, too. Ward doesn’t “have to” win this game if we **** their RB down and generate a pass rush.

Ward doesn't have to win the game, be he can and will. Really the entire offense as I expect us to run for 200+ on them when it's all said and done. I think we hang 40+ on the Gator. I really think we have a top 10 offense and maybe even top 5. Whether they can show it in game 1 is TBD....

 

[Number1CanesFan]

Vegas has canes at 2 1/2 point favs which translates into about 55% win chance. If you think you are smarter than vegas and bet frequently enough you'll find out you aren't

First of all, point spreads are not necessarily predictors. They are the number of points given to even the betting on both sides. Vegas does analysis to create the spread before betting occurs. The betting public is who moves the line when there are more bets on one side. The line moves to bring in more wagers on the other side to even the betting.

It's really a reflection of what the public is betting on. If more people are betting on Miami, then the spread goes up.

 

[WeBallinBoyz]

First of all, point spreads are not necessarily predictors. They are the number of points given to even the betting on both sides. Vegas does analysis to create the spread before betting occurs. The betting public is who moves the line when there are more bets on one side. The line moves to bring in more wagers on the other side to even the betting.

It's really a reflection of what the public is betting on. If more people are betting on Miami, then the spread goes up.

Yeah…no.

Respectfully - coming from someone that works for a household name in the industry.

The 1% moves the line, not the public. I’ll take as much public money as I can get, don’t care about liability. Why? Because the public loses, and loses a lot at that.

It’s a myth that books trade on liability. Some smaller ones do if it’s detrimental to their operations, but all the medium/big boys don’t. We welcome liability if it’s the right kind of liability.

I care more about the guy up 350k on CFB lifetime, putting 5k down on a spread as his max allowed bet…than if a cumulative 1.5 million dollars was thrown down on the other side by guys down thousands or hundreds of thousands all time (heck, even millions). I’ll move the line against the public money and the public goes “whaaaat?? Why is the line getting better for me if all the money is on my side??? What does Vegas know???”

These sports books didn’t get rich off of simply collecting vig. When I first started out, I had the same initial thought. Then I realized their models are better than 99.9% of bettors, they have stake in it just like you do - only they win way more.

In fact, their lines are as close to predictors as you can possibly get, aside from a few gifted individuals that are even better.

 

[StevoBevo]

Barstool is purely for entertainment not real info/breakdowns whatsoever.

He’s very close with some of the players/staffers.
Honeslty was more knowledgeable than I expected

 

[canecrazy23]

I liked our run defense all year last year I was really blown away at how bad the run defense was in the bowl game. I would like to think it was due to having a backup DL. I have faith it will be sured up for Game 1.

You don't think it had anything to do with the Rutgers RB who was one of the best in the nation who also ran all over the STARTING DL of OSU for a tune of 6.1 yards per carry?
I keep hearing about that Rutgers game from posters that don't seem to do their research first.

 

[ItsAUThing.com]

Florida still has an SEC caliber roster which Miami can't sleep on, based on recent lack of success against SEC teams (outside of throwing all over a garbage aTm squad last year.)

That said, Mario is building an SEC caliber squad and the Canes can hang in the trenches with the Gators this year.

I like Ward better than Mertz and Miami's ground game better than Florida. Defense needs to come to play and need to push away by the fourth quarter, before it starts getting dark in The Swamp and they have their Tom Petty moment, as that can tend to jumpstart things for UF in close games.

If I had to guess right now, Miami 30, Florida 20 .... but we'll see.

 

[rvalenza]

Is this a guarantee win? I don't know if Fletcher is playing but without him I feel like we might have trouble bc of the coaching staff..

Win in the trenches. Also, it's Aug 31, who's going to make the fewest mistakes?

 

[Hurracanes]

Florida still has an SEC caliber roster which Miami can't sleep on, based on recent lack of success against SEC teams (outside of throwing all over a garbage aTm squad last year.)

That said, Mario is building an SEC caliber squad and the Canes can hang in the trenches with the Gators this year.

I like Ward better than Mertz and Miami's ground game better than Florida. Defense needs to come to play and need to push away by the fourth quarter, before it starts getting dark in The Swamp and they have their Tom Petty moment, as that can tend to jumpstart things for UF in close games.

If I had to guess right now, Miami 30, Florida 20 .... but we'll see.

What does SEC roster even mean? Aside from several teams, how are “SEC rosters” any different than other conference rosters? This narrative needs to stop.

That SEC roster didn’t look like much during that FSU game who didn’t have a QB.

 

[airrang]

What does SEC roster even mean? Aside from several teams, how are “SEC rosters” any different than other conference rosters? This narrative needs to stop.

That SEC roster didn’t look like much during that FSU game who didn’t have a QB.

Exactly, technically Vandy has an SEC roster, as does Arkansas and Miss State. And further, that A&M finished with a better record than Florida did in a tougher division so not sure what the issue is …..

 

[305407cane]

They’ll get plays no doubt. Wilson will have his share. Their back is good. It’s the first game so expect some rusty tackling. That goes for both teams. Wouldn’t surprise me to be tied at the half. I think we wear them down in the end.

If we try to “pound the rock bro” then we might lose. They have size up front. That’s all they have. So mitigate that and we will be fine.

 

[305407cane]

The atmosphere won’t matter a bit to our leaders:
Cam has played at Oregon, Washington etc
Mario went to the shoe and won with Anthony brown at qb
Francisco, Powell(national championship), Martinez have all played in atmospheres.

Mario literally went into the show against a loaded taint team without his first round edge rusher and Anthony brown at qb and won. He’s built this team up. First game of the year so we are healthy. Depth is good except the secondary.

I truly think we wear the reptiles down and hit some chunk plays in the air for the dagger

 

[Novacane32000]

Yeah…no.

Respectfully - coming from someone that works for a household name in the industry.

The 1% moves the line, not the public. I’ll take as much public money as I can get, don’t care about liability. Why? Because the public loses, and loses a lot at that.

It’s a myth that books trade on liability. Some smaller ones do if it’s detrimental to their operations, but all the medium/big boys don’t. We welcome liability if it’s the right kind of liability.

I care more about the guy up 350k on CFB lifetime, putting 5k down on a spread as his max allowed bet…than if a cumulative 1.5 million dollars was thrown down on the other side by guys down thousands or hundreds of thousands all time (heck, even millions). I’ll move the line against the public money and the public goes “whaaaat?? Why is the line getting better for me if all the money is on my side??? What does Vegas know???”

These sports books didn’t get rich off of simply collecting vig. When I first started out, I had the same initial thought. Then I realized their models are better than 99.9% of bettors, they have stake in it just like you do - only they win way more.

In fact, their lines are as close to predictors as you can possibly get, aside from a few gifted individuals that are even better.

Similar to the stock market, there are a few gifted traders who can beat the market consistently, but 95% of the time you just aren't going to beat the SP500 index.

This 2.5 point spread should wake up all the Cane fans who think this will be a "guaranteed" easy win. The only people saying this have no skin in the game.

 

[HardCane]

Quick analysis: Thier qb is returning, even though their secondary was bad last year, it’s hard to believe they won’t improve, their best linebacker was a freshman, Dline is good their strength is their tackles, offensive line wasn’t good last year, but return a couple starters along with some transfers. They do have a couple play makers at wr.

QB:Miami
RB:Miami
TE: Even
WR: Miami
OL: Miami
DE:Miami
DT:Florida
LB:Miami
Corner: Florida
Safety: Florida

I think we have a pretty good enough advantage to overcome the home field advantage and win in the swamp.

I think this is pretty accurate. I would say that UF has the 2 most game breaking wrs. We have them in depth at the wr position. Their 2 wrs have the most potential to take it to the house from any where on the field or beat your vertically.

 

[HardCane]

I think you're overstating the value of a fanbase to a coach who has far bigger concerns at hand. I'll let you know all that matters to Mario is his own bar for us. Results come last in a rebuild. If we would've focused on results we'd still be dealing with more of the usual. It's not difficult to pull in 9 or 10 wins in a season. (Ask fspoo )It's doing it consistently where the problem comes in. Far as these 20 years of ****** coaching, the casual fan knows nothing but twenty years of results. There hasn't been the same problems throughout the years. Rather there's been various problems that have gave us the results we've seen. Y'all complain about 12-13 because again all you know is wins and losses. Ultimately I understand. Fans aren't supposed to know what goes into those Ws. That's why people like you bring up Mandy's record while he was here and say he was doing just as good or better. Because casual fans don't know the product on the field from a hole in their ***. You don't understand that then just go watch a game at hard rock. Tell me (assuming you're not just full of ****) that those people in large part don't simply go for a social experience. That's why our fanbase is fickle & complain about fizical ball. Cause they go to get drunk & tailgate, they go to pick up chicks, they go to sing songs and dance to **** the worst most out of touch dj in America plays, to see themselves on a jumbotron... So what is it? Is it the wins and the record that matters (like you keep trying to say) or is it seeing the offense clicking on all cylinders. Chunk plays down field exciting football. Cause I could swear it's Mario plays fyzical broball... Hence why I say I don't really care about the thoughts of a casual fan since they can't understand what's happening on the field. You know what an offense does when it's got numerous holes(especially at the QB position)? It plays bro ball. That's how the game works. Simple. Cause the Ws do matter more than how you achieve them.

Seems to me Mario has been playing bro style for a very long time. Some HC's have a preferred style of offense. Even at oregon when he had a qb the passing game was bland and simplistic. Got ahead and immediately slowed the game down and tried to pound. Playing conservative offense almost always results in tight games. End of the day most fans only care about wins and losses. How it looks matters to recruits at certain positions especially qb and wr. I feel those are reasons why we have yet to land a really top end qb or 5 star wr. Winning cures all in the end tho

 

[HardCane]

Let's face reality. The SEC is very top heavy and good almost from top to bottom.

Bama
Georgia
LSU
Texas
Oklahoma

Then you have middle of the road SEC teams that would be consider upper end in the ACC

Tenn
Florida
Auburn
Ole Miss
Mizz
TXAM

I don't think Ole miss belongs in this Tier.

 

[TheOriginalCane]

CanesSport did a great series breakdown on the recruiting classes from 2020 -2023. There are only about 8 players on the team from the 2020 and 2021 classes. That's 8 out of 44 players. These are the classes that should be your veteran junior and senior starters in 2022 and 2023. Most of those players that left are not even at P5 schools. Here's the remaining player breakdown by class and class size:
2020 - 3/21
2021 - 5/23
2022 - 7/15
2023 - 21/26

Those 2020 and 2021 player were in years 2and 3 in Mario's 1st year. They were in year 3 and 4 last year. Couple that with Mario's portal classes that were not very good. They were mostly backups on a roster full of players that were not at the caliber Miami needed to compete at a high level. When you really look at what we had, you understand why things were so bad and how they have changed. Our roster is filled with much better players. More importantly, they have a different mindset. They fit culturally to they type of player Mario wants. The portal transfers we have are impact players with proven production. There isn't a 2024 transfer who doesn't have multiple years of proven production. This the reason why the media and fans are optimistic about the 2024 season. The roster is night and day different different.
.
More of Mario's 1st full cycle class (2023) will see the field. In 2025, Mario's 2023 class will be juniors. Their will be a smaller number of portal transfers as his full cycle blue chips will be veterans. I encourage anyone to watch those class breakdowns from CanesSport on YouTube. They did an excellent job of analyzing the recruiting classes and roster by year and its impact on our past 2 seasons.

You motherFVCKER...you gave us FOUR photos apiece of Gary Fur-Man and Matt Shodell...

HOW DARE YOU! And I saw this right around lunchtime...