Its like politics... gotta work your way up and blow the right people to get a shot.
There are very few in the business that didn't get there that way and actually got there for acumen.
I will add: I worked for a consultant that acted as a search firm for around 2 years specializing in college coaching hires. We only got a few big program football contracts. Mostly lower tier non-rev sports, position coaches and coordinator jobs, and lots of D2 and D3 stuff. There are some clueless ADs out there.
There was a P5 AD that we assisted (biggest client we secured) and they went against our 3 suggestions and wasted $150k on their contract. They've fired 2 coaches since then and 2 of the 3 suggestions have already moved along to bigger jobs and done well. Number 1 on this list was Cignetti, 2 was Deboer, and 3 was Rolovich - which is hard to grade but I'm certain it would have went better than where they're at now.
Gotta say, I doubt any firm has ever put up a better list of small school candidates for them on a budget than our team did for them with the budget and resources presented. Cig was at JMU, Deboer was at Fresno St, and Rolovich at Wazzu.