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Gamblers- Week 5
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For_The_U
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Thanks to everyone for sharing their thoughts. I figure anyone who posts regularly on here is a big CFB fan and we can all benefit from each other's insights and feels on the games. Some thoughts on the mentions above...
Duke seems to be a very popular pick. I worry it's an over reaction to a truly bizarre result vs ODU. ODU didn't get lucky breaks, they straight manhandled the Hokies! It was strange to see. I respect Cutliffe as much as any coach in the country and his teams always seem ready to play. Plus their defensive and conservative style is made to win games. They didn't show much from their loss of QB last week which surprised me. They did lose a critical defender. It's easy to call VT a dumpster fire after that debacle Saturday, but I worry they may come out with absolute fire in their bellies. It HAS to be a circle the wagons game for them, right?!? If it were in the Burg I wouldn't touch Duke, even if they were getting a few points. I could see this game going either way. If I had to bet it, I'd take Duke giving as well. But I'm staying away.
I'd stay far away from that Clemson line . Cuse is no slouch and Dabo doesn't give two sh-ts about running up a score. He knows his path to the playoffs is simply to win out and with the new redshirt rule he'd rather keep his key guys healthy and get some youngsters some live fire exposure in a late blowout rather than pressing the score further. I think the Tigers win comfortably, but I wouldn't at all be surprised to see Cuse cover with some points in garbage time. In fact, I think that's exactly what happens on an almost 25pt line. I know a lot of people are focusing on the revenge element, but I personally don't think Dabo cares about that at all. They have much bigger plans and know they could be out of the playoffs with a single loss due to what turned into a weak SOS. So they don't need to run up any scores, their focus is solely on running the table.
UCF intrigues me, even giving almost 2 scores. Though they don't play teams with power 5 rosters and depth week in and week out. They look **** good though thus far. Would have liked to have seen them vs UNC. I'll probably be on that light. Or go heavier if I tease it with something else and get it at -7.5.
I think FSU wins comfortably. Noles have talent, played a bit better last Saturday, and Louisville is awful... just, awful. Not advising betting them against the spread, but they're in my chalk parlay.
I really like a teased Memphis-7.5 line. I may play that 2 or 3 different ways as a means of lowering scores on some other games as I think that covers easily.
It's bizarre to see IU with a -17.5 line, but after The Sh-t Show Once Known as Rutgers Football that's been on display the last two weeks, I don't know how anyone can be comfortable having money on them regardless of the opponent or spread.
As a single game play, Toledo-1.5/Over53 teaser is intriguing. If I play that I'll likely buy it to -1/52.5.
I think Texas rolls KSU. UT seems to be hitting their stride and KSU is terrible this year. This is likely one I'll tease with another game like I mentioned above re Memphis and get UT-2.
Got a buddy who is drooling over the Hawaii game, mainly as a -6.5 teased line. I just don't know enough about the Rainbows. Was the hot start a fluke? I don't discredit them too much as a result of the Army loss as everyone saw that coming with the jet lag and play style difference. Is San Jose State decent at all? Curious if you all know anything about this game. He thinks I'm a fool to not play it, but I'm not there yet.
Sorry for the long post, but found some time and figured I'd share my thoughts. I'm gonna have some heavy action Saturday as I need a rally. Let's get rich kids!!
By the way, I may double that 8 game chalk parlay I listed above. I really don't see any of those teams losing. Feel very good about that one.
Duke seems to be a very popular pick. I worry it's an over reaction to a truly bizarre result vs ODU. ODU didn't get lucky breaks, they straight manhandled the Hokies! It was strange to see. I respect Cutliffe as much as any coach in the country and his teams always seem ready to play. Plus their defensive and conservative style is made to win games. They didn't show much from their loss of QB last week which surprised me. They did lose a critical defender. It's easy to call VT a dumpster fire after that debacle Saturday, but I worry they may come out with absolute fire in their bellies. It HAS to be a circle the wagons game for them, right?!? If it were in the Burg I wouldn't touch Duke, even if they were getting a few points. I could see this game going either way. If I had to bet it, I'd take Duke giving as well. But I'm staying away.
I'd stay far away from that Clemson line . Cuse is no slouch and Dabo doesn't give two sh-ts about running up a score. He knows his path to the playoffs is simply to win out and with the new redshirt rule he'd rather keep his key guys healthy and get some youngsters some live fire exposure in a late blowout rather than pressing the score further. I think the Tigers win comfortably, but I wouldn't at all be surprised to see Cuse cover with some points in garbage time. In fact, I think that's exactly what happens on an almost 25pt line. I know a lot of people are focusing on the revenge element, but I personally don't think Dabo cares about that at all. They have much bigger plans and know they could be out of the playoffs with a single loss due to what turned into a weak SOS. So they don't need to run up any scores, their focus is solely on running the table.
UCF intrigues me, even giving almost 2 scores. Though they don't play teams with power 5 rosters and depth week in and week out. They look **** good though thus far. Would have liked to have seen them vs UNC. I'll probably be on that light. Or go heavier if I tease it with something else and get it at -7.5.
I think FSU wins comfortably. Noles have talent, played a bit better last Saturday, and Louisville is awful... just, awful. Not advising betting them against the spread, but they're in my chalk parlay.
I really like a teased Memphis-7.5 line. I may play that 2 or 3 different ways as a means of lowering scores on some other games as I think that covers easily.
It's bizarre to see IU with a -17.5 line, but after The Sh-t Show Once Known as Rutgers Football that's been on display the last two weeks, I don't know how anyone can be comfortable having money on them regardless of the opponent or spread.
As a single game play, Toledo-1.5/Over53 teaser is intriguing. If I play that I'll likely buy it to -1/52.5.
I think Texas rolls KSU. UT seems to be hitting their stride and KSU is terrible this year. This is likely one I'll tease with another game like I mentioned above re Memphis and get UT-2.
Got a buddy who is drooling over the Hawaii game, mainly as a -6.5 teased line. I just don't know enough about the Rainbows. Was the hot start a fluke? I don't discredit them too much as a result of the Army loss as everyone saw that coming with the jet lag and play style difference. Is San Jose State decent at all? Curious if you all know anything about this game. He thinks I'm a fool to not play it, but I'm not there yet.
Sorry for the long post, but found some time and figured I'd share my thoughts. I'm gonna have some heavy action Saturday as I need a rally. Let's get rich kids!!
By the way, I may double that 8 game chalk parlay I listed above. I really don't see any of those teams losing. Feel very good about that one.
scrantoncane
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Purdue was the best 0-3 team in the country before they got it going last weekend. I think they rout Nebraska.
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I made my money back over the weekend thankfully lol. I hit with North Texas, Clemson and Notre Dame. I'm kicking myself in the *** on my NFL parlay I had the Rams, Chiefs and all week I was digging the Dolphins -3 against Oakland then I got suckered into the Patriots. Long story short I took Pats instead of the fins on my parlay and NE **** the bed. I'm ahead now thanks to the MLB, guys if you follow baseball I HIGHLY RECOMMEND u bet on the rest of this weeks game. Monday I hit with Oakland +1.5, Brewers +1.5 and Rockies -1.5. Tuesday I hit with Nationals -1.5, Rockies -1.5 and Brewers +1.5. I will post who I like this week on the football side this afternoon.
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BeastMode
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Where do you get your baseball picks from? I haven’t done to well betting baseball.
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I just pull up ESPN and go down the games. Look at the starters then I google the teams in the games I'm liking just to check who's playing in the lineup and who's not. Dodgers have been -1.5 in their series against Arizona. Monday Arizona rested Goldschmidt and Peralta, LA wins 7-4 covering. Yesterday both are in the lineup D'backs win 4-3. Right now taking a quick look at todays games, gotta like the Yankees with Tanaka on the mound against TB. Yankees still going hard trying to clinch Home field adv. Also Chris Sale on the Mound for Boston against Baltimore. They beat Baltimore 6-2 in their first game. Brewers are gunning down the the Cubs for the NL Central title, if their getting runs against STL again today it's hard not to like them. They have outright beat STL in the first two games 12-4, 6-4, while getting +1.5 on the spread.
For_The_U
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Thanks for these insights. Id love to follow your mlb picks the rest of the week if you dont mind posting them.
Monday i did a nats, sox, tribe, stros, Dodgers chalk parlay and then went back and added cubs last minute to make payout 550 instead of 300. All 5 first teams won, cubs lost. Ugh! Killed by greed.
Im going to parlay the three you listed above right now. Thanks!
BeastMode
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Thanks. I lost the Cardinals last night and Cubs. I just don’t keep up with baseball the way I used to.
Both Yankees and Redsox are - 1 1/2
Yankees ML -175
Redsox ML -386
Brewers are -1 1/2
Only worry with the Redsox is it’s a double header and who knows how many will rest that second game with Sale pitching. First game has David price.
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On paper Purdue is better, but on paper only goes so far in CFB. It's now or never for Nebraska and they'll pull it out.
Also liking...
Mississippi State -7.5. Big situational spot for MSU. Just off a loss to Kentucky and now at home against the team that stole their coach. UF is meh. MSU rolls.
North Texas - 7.5. Good team and making me some loot. Gonna ride them until they burn me.
San Jose State +12.5. Not buying Hawaii.
Virginia +5 is interesting.
5marterthanU
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Hey i don't post much.. just love the site cause I get my cane info from it.. but since I am amongst cane family I will give out 2 free picks, one for Thurs and one for Friday.. I may give 2 for Saturday on Friday as well. Without further ado,
Thurs unc +18: die hard canes fan but won't get caught in the sauce. Love that we finally have nkosi lining up behind center but it won't matter for a spread this big against an ACC opponent just yet.. ESPECIALLY with that dink and donk offense Richt runs. If he had Perry play it safe against fiu then I highly doubt he's going to unleash the kraken against an ACC opponent. Plus we run the ball to much for big spreads unless we playing an non power 5 team.
Fri. Tulane +13.5 folks all I will say is mem plays absolutely no defense and have only covered against scrubby *** defenses... If Tulane can cover on wake I definitely like them to cover here. That's it for now, and good luck gentlemen and ladies.
Thurs unc +18: die hard canes fan but won't get caught in the sauce. Love that we finally have nkosi lining up behind center but it won't matter for a spread this big against an ACC opponent just yet.. ESPECIALLY with that dink and donk offense Richt runs. If he had Perry play it safe against fiu then I highly doubt he's going to unleash the kraken against an ACC opponent. Plus we run the ball to much for big spreads unless we playing an non power 5 team.
Fri. Tulane +13.5 folks all I will say is mem plays absolutely no defense and have only covered against scrubby *** defenses... If Tulane can cover on wake I definitely like them to cover here. That's it for now, and good luck gentlemen and ladies.
Novacane32000
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Here is how I see the UNC game:
--UNC D is very bad
--Players coming back for UNC will not have a great impact since it is their 1st game back
--Canes will be jacked for nationally televised game to prove themselves after LSU fiasco
--Richt will not take his foot off the pedal if we are up 4-5 scores after what happen vs FIU last week
--My money says we cover
I absolutely agree with U and Toretta! That Herbie CornSUCKER team is absolute TRASH! And even though Purdue has three losses on their resume, they've been COMPETITIVE in all three losses.
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CMR has a HISTORY of " taking the foot off the petal. " Again, if Miami is up 24 or 28 points entering the fourth quarter, I see a lot of third team players getting some playing time. hUh.
Especially with the new RS rule and the FSwho game next Saturday.
CAT5Coming
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I've watched a decent amount of Hawaii this year and gotta say they have a QB. They can throw the ball around and I think they are much more talented than San Jose State. Despite the circumstances still hung with a good Army team. SJSU is a program in complete disarray. This game looks really good, maybe too good, going to do a little more research but Rainbows all day here. Reminds me of Toledo's game last week.
re: KSU vs Texas - KSU is certainly down this year, but they have a history of playing tight B12 games at home. Texas coming off three straight home games will have to go on the road here and not sure I trust this Texas team yet to play consistently on the road. I think I prefer KSU here, but will probably stay away.
I love Memphis as a team, going to do a deep dive on this game.
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CMR has a HISTORY of " taking the foot off the petal. " Again, if Miami is up 24 or 28 points entering the fourth quarter, I see a lot of third team players getting some playing time. hUh.
This. He lost the majority of the Canes who bet that FIU game their money doing that BS. Up 31-0 and give us two scores?? Smh.
Only reason we covered against Toledo was because Richt knew Toledo wasn't going to go quietly into the night so we had to keep scoring.
Would love to be wrong but I don't see us covering +18 and I definitely don't see us covering the first half line. Hasn't come out on my site yet but ill bet it is at least +10.
Ill take a 31-14 type win in this game all day!
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My locks today are NATS -1.5, Yankees -1.5, Red Sox -1.5 & Rockies -1.5. Nats are still playing their big boys Harper, Turner, Rendon etc. Marlins are playing their young guys. That game is a 4:05 start today sorry for being late posting this. Yankees as I stated earlier Tanaka on the mound, they know their playing Oakland in the playoffs, home field still needs to be clinched. Red Sox Chris Sale is on the mound, it will be interesting to so see who's in the lineup but with Sale pitching they have a good chance. Red Sox winning 19-3 currently in the first Doubleheader game. Baltimore hasn't even announced a pitcher yet for the second game. Rockies are trying to steal the NL West from the Dodgers and are a .5 game back. They will be going hard I hate they are not getting runs with the spread anymore but they've been playing too well to not roll with them again. Their playing Philly who has lost their last 6 games.
Other teams of note KC +1.5 , Det +1.5 , Angels -1.5 , Padres +1.5, Oak +1.5
KC last 5 games have been decided by 1 Run them getting +1.5 is enough for me against the Reds who have lost their last 4 games, three to the Marlins getting outscored by 11 runs by the Marlin in those 3 games. Detroit with +1.5 has covered their last 5 games. Their last 4 games have been decided by one run and a 11-8 win over KC. Angels are inconsistent and is the biggest gamble out of all these picks but Texas is starting a pitcher with a 6 ERA, I would go with Trout and Co. Padres it's a battle of two bad teams, them against the Giants. The +1.5 is enough to roll with SD who beat San Fran by 5 runs and lost by one run last night on a Madison Bumgarner pitch hit walk off HR lol. Oakland +1.5 they are battling for Home field in the Wild Card game. King Felix is pitching for Seattle on 18 days rest I expect Oakland to come in hot.
I Parlayed (NYY -1.5, BOS 1.5, Rockies 1.5) as a lock bet. Gamble bets (Was -1.5 , LAA -1.5 and Oak +1.5) & (KC +1.5, DET +1.5 , SD +1.5)
5marterthanU
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Well I always personally stay away from betting on my fav team.. I do want Richt to find a way to make the team just a little more explosive before I bet big spreads on my canes.. hopefully as Perry grows more comfortable with game speed, the field opens up even more for him. Good luck to all though.
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