Gamblers- Week 5

[For_The_U]

don;'t hedge you only wagered $50 smh.....I've had $500 parlays for thousaunds where I would hedge a bit because it would have returned me a lot of money and $500 is not small (medium for me)

Nah, definitely going to hedge. Doesn't matter what was wagered initially, have to look at the potential outcomes/returns. No point in risking a -$500+ swing on a game that vegas has as only a 3.5pt favorite when I can guarantee at least a $2-300 cash. If I hard core thought KC was winning that'd be different; but in Mile High, I could see the game go either way. I don't bet big money like you do, I do it more for fun and to make a few hundred bucks or a G here and there, with the goal being not losing the same. All the 100s here and 100s there matter in the long-run to me.

I think option 3 is the one that makes the most sense as it still guarantees me either $252 or $150 with a shot at $672.

 

[Poptimus]

Alright, my fellow gamblers, I need some advice here...

I have that $50 NFL parlay coming into tonight that just needs Chiefs ML to cash. It would have paid $874, but because the Browns pushed it pays $472 if KC just gets the W tonight. I am going to hedge it. I think it know what makes the most sense, but wanted to run it by you to see if you agree and/or if I'm missing something...

So if I do nothing else, my results tonight are +$472 (KC wins) or -$50 (Den wins). I don't want that, too risky.

If I hedge it with a $172 Denver ML bet (at +167) my results become +$300 (KC wins) or +$237 (Denver wins). Decent cash either way, no risk.

If I put in a $200 bet on Denver+3.5 the results become +$252 (KC wins by 4 or more), +$150 (Denver wins) or +$672 should KC win by 1-3pts (as I'd hit both the full $472 parlay plus the $200 Den+3.5 bet).

Gotta go option 3, right? Seems like a no brainer to give up either $50 or $85 bucks on the two cash outcomes for a chance to hit it for $672. I'm so **** tired today though that I want to make sure I'm not missing something.

Thanks in advance for your thoughts!

Line has been dropping like a rock in favor of Denver, I'd definitely hedge. Not saying I'd always hedge, but in this case I would. That's a small middle of just 3.5 points so I'd probably do option 2. You're giving up some profit on the unlikely chance KC wins by 1-3 and I don't think there's enough upside to justify it.

Or, if you go option 3 I'd go small on Denver +3.5 and then hope you can get down more at the half if available and it looks up in the air.

 

[For_The_U]

Line has been dropping like a rock in favor of Denver, I'd definitely hedge. Not saying I'd always hedge, but in this case I would. That's a small middle of just 3.5 points so I'd probably do option 2. You're giving up some profit on the unlikely chance KC wins by 1-3 and I don't think there's enough upside to justify it.

Or, if you go option 3 I'd go small on Denver +3.5 and then hope you can get down more at the half if available and it looks up in the air.

Good thoughts. Appreciate it, man.

 

[plantcity3]

Alright, my fellow gamblers, I need some advice here...

I have that $50 NFL parlay coming into tonight that just needs Chiefs ML to cash. It would have paid $874, but because the Browns pushed it pays $472 if KC just gets the W tonight. I am going to hedge it. I think it know what makes the most sense, but wanted to run it by you to see if you agree and/or if I'm missing something...

So if I do nothing else, my results tonight are +$472 (KC wins) or -$50 (Den wins). I don't want that, too risky.

If I hedge it with a $172 Denver ML bet (at +167) my results become +$300 (KC wins) or +$237 (Denver wins). Decent cash either way, no risk.

If I put in a $200 bet on Denver+3.5 the results become +$252 (KC wins by 4 or more), +$150 (Denver wins) or +$672 should KC win by 1-3pts (as I'd hit both the full $472 parlay plus the $200 Den+3.5 bet).

Gotta go option 3, right? Seems like a no brainer to give up either $50 or $85 bucks on the two cash outcomes for a chance to hit it for $672. I'm so **** tired today though that I want to make sure I'm not missing something.

Thanks in advance for your thoughts!

I make be totally wrong but this is how I worked it out in my brain

Option 3 has a 1/3 chance to hit any one of those. But 66% you will receive the lowest payouts.

Option 2 has 1/2 chance to hit either and both have bigger payouts then the two you are likely to hit with option 3.

 

[For_The_U]

Well, decided to go with option 3 and as I went to put in the Den-3.5 bet I decided to spend $20 (which Id only pay of KC won big) to better protect myself and buy it to +4. Boom! Hit the full parlay and the denver bet pushed. What an ending!! Mahomes is absolutely phenomenal.