This is a long post so apologies in advance, TLDR version is 8-4.
This might sound funny at first, but I’d feel better about 8 wins if we close on Andre Sam. His versatility is that important to a team that could experience a significant drop off in the back end of a starter gets hurt. Plus his familiarity with the scheme would be undoubtedly beneficial with communication.
Probably would have leaned the under prior to a fair amount of these portal acquisitions. However, I also think a lot of of you are over-estimating the ACC based on a 2022 Miami team that will look and operate very differently. The schedule sets up well for a nice three-game winning streak following the A&M game, should we drop that contest. I think this could be a crucial point in the season in order to maintain confidence early following a loss. If we beat A&M, even better. I see no reason to start 5-0 if we pull out an upset at Hardrock.
Looking at our opponents from a season total win perspective:
Miami Ohio: 6.5
Texas A&M: 7.5
Bethune: N/A
Temple: 4.5
Georgia Tech: 4.5
North Carolina: 8.5
Clemson: 9.5
Virginia: 3.5
North Carolina State: 6.5
FSU: 10
Louisville: 8
Boston College: 5.5
How we stack up in the ACC based on win totals (teams with same # arranged via probability to go over expected number)
FSU: 10
Clemson: 9.5
North Carolina: 8.5
Louisville: 8
Miami: 7.5
North Carolina St: 6.5
Pittsburgh: 6.5
Syracuse: 6.5
Duke: 6.5
Wake Forest: 6
Boston College: 5.5
Virginia Tech: 5
Georgia Tech: 4.5
Virginia: 3.5
Lastly, returning total production numbers from ACC teams. Parenthetical represents where they sit nationally, bolded teams are our 2023 conference opponents.
FSU: 87% (No. 1)
- Offense | 80% (No. 12)
- Defense | 94% (No. 2)
Boston College: 78% (No. 8)
- Offense | 78% (No. 17)
- Defense | 79% (No. 13)
Syracuse: 73% (No. 24)
- Offense | 73% (No. 39)
- Defense | 72% (No. 33)
Duke: 71% (No. 33)
- Offense | 82% (No. 9)
- Defense | 60% (No. 73)
Miami: 70% (No.35)
- Offense | 62% (No. 82)
- Defense | 77% (No. 18)
Clemson: 69% (No.36)
- Offense | 64% (No. 73)
- Defense | 75% (No. 23)
Virginia Tech: 69% (No.38)
- Offense | 73% (No. 41)
- Defense | 65% (No. 59)
North Carolina: 68% (No. 43)
- Offense | 69% (No. 53)
- Defense | 68% (No. 47)
Georgia Tech: 67% (No. 47)
- Offense | 69% (No. 55)
- Defense | 66% (No. 54)
NC State: 56% (No. 98)
- Offense | 62% (No. 77)
- Defense | 49% (No. 104)
Louisville: 56% (No. 99)
- Offense | 61% (No. 85)
- Defense | 50% (No. 100)
Wake Forest: 52% (No. 112)
- Offense | 46% (No. 117)
-Defense | 59% (No. 75)
Virginia: 52% (No.116)
- Offense | 40% (No. 123)
- Defense | 64% (No. 63)
Pittsburgh: 51% (No. 119)
- Offense | 52% (No. 106)
- Defense | 49% (No. 106)
I group it as follows:
80% or better we win
- Bethune, Temple, The other Miami, Georgia Tech, Virginia
60-79.9%
- Boston College
True Toss-Ups
- Louisville, North Carolina, North Carolina State
35% or less
- Texas A&M, Clemson, FSU
As evidenced above, GT and UVA aren’t going to be good. Everyone likes to point to the fact UVA almost beat us, but the offensive scheme and players behind it are completely different. That point is mute imo.
I think 8-4 is pretty reasonable. Take the first six in the above groupings, then two of the last six. BC is tricky post Thanksgiving, but they should be pretty crappy and as long as we don’t quit on the season or have copious amounts of injuries, we should be fine. 8-4 would also be a 3-win improvement, which would be certainly enough for recruiting purposes as well as indicate a positive trajectory.
I think 7-5 is a little more likely than 9-3, but I expect to be competitive night in and out. 7-5 would be a little disappointing to me after the past 2 months of coaching and player additions.