End of season Fins mock draft and free agency plan!!

@Jedi Master Cane
@JeddTheFisch
@DMoney
@LuCane

Here’s my plan.

Cut/Let walk: Ereck Flowers, Godcheaux, Hurns, Albert Wilson

Resign: LB core(Roberts, Hill, etc) Gaskin, Karras, and Ahmed

Pursue: Nelson Agholor(9 mil) and Leonard Floyd(12 mil),

Draft: trade down to the lower portion of the top 10

1) Jamar Chase
1) Najee Harris
2) Christian Baremore DL Bama
2) Trevon Moehrig S TCU
2) Chazz Surratt LB NC
3) Josh Myers C OSU
4) Charles Snowden Edge
4) Elijah Moore WR Ole Miss
5) James Wiggins S Cincy
6) Pooka Williams RB KU
6) Thayer Munford OT OSU
7) Jimmy Morrisey OL Pitt
 
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@Jedi Master Cane
@JeddTheFisch
@DMoney
@LuCane

Here’s my plan.

Cut/Let walk: Ereck Flowers, Godcheaux, Hurns, Albert Wilson

Resign: LB core(Roberts, Hill, etc) Gaskin, Karras, and Ahmed

Pursue: Nelson Agholor(9 mil) and Leonard Floyd(12 mil),

Draft: trade down to the lower portion of the top 10

1) Jamar Chase
1) Najee Harris
2) Christian Baremore DL Bama
2) Trevon Moehrig S TCU
2) Chazz Surratt LB NC
3) Josh Myers C OSU
4) Charles Snowden Edge
4) Elijah Moore WR Ole Miss
5) James Wiggins S Cincy
6) Pooka Williams RB KU
6) Thayer Munford OT OSU
7) Jimmy Morrisey OL Pitt
Why'd you cut Flowers? I can see that mainly in the scenario we land at #3 overall, decide to take Sewell, and bump Hunt inside.

I can buy Najee at the 1b slot if we keep sliding down the board (because we're winning). If it's a #18/19 overall pick, it's a bit tougher to envision.

With the #4 overall pick (at worst, hopefully, if Houston loses next week) of the draft, any plan has to strongly consider moving down a bit in an exchange with a QB-hungry team. There's a ton of juice to squeeze from that fruit.

Let's wait to see what Moehrig does at the combine to see his value at #36. Good safety, obviously. I kinda have our 2b pick slated for valuable Safety.

Love the Myers, Moore, and Wiggins picks, if they fall that far.
 
@Jedi Master Cane
@JeddTheFisch
@DMoney
@LuCane

Here’s my plan.

Cut/Let walk: Ereck Flowers, Godcheaux, Hurns, Albert Wilson

Resign: LB core(Roberts, Hill, etc) Gaskin, Karras, and Ahmed

Pursue: Nelson Agholor(9 mil) and Leonard Floyd(12 mil),

Draft: trade down to the lower portion of the top 10

1) Jamar Chase
1) Najee Harris
2) Christian Baremore DL Bama
2) Trevon Moehrig S TCU
2) Chazz Surratt LB NC
3) Josh Myers C OSU
4) Charles Snowden Edge
4) Elijah Moore WR Ole Miss
5) James Wiggins S Cincy
6) Pooka Williams RB KU
6) Thayer Munford OT OSU
7) Jimmy Morrisey OL Pitt
Love Najee as an RB who can run and catch.

If Gaskin and Ahmed are cheap, fine to sign again. But I wouldn't throw much money at either. Very fungible.

Agree with @LuCane re: OL. Gotta be a little careful here. We've got a good thing going, and can't mess it up.

Draft should be all about DL and offensive skill.
 
Why'd you cut Flowers? I can see that mainly in the scenario we land at #3 overall, decide to take Sewell, and bump Hunt inside.

I can buy Najee at the 1b slot if we keep sliding down the board (because we're winning). If it's a #18/19 overall pick, it's a bit tougher to envision.

With the #4 overall pick (at worst, hopefully, if Houston loses next week) of the draft, any plan has to strongly consider moving down a bit in an exchange with a QB-hungry team. There's a ton of juice to squeeze from that fruit.

Let's wait to see what Moehrig does at the combine to see his value at #36. Good safety, obviously. I kinda have our 2b pick slated for valuable Safety.

Love the Myers, Moore, and Wiggins picks, if they fall that far.
Love Najee as an RB who can run and catch.

If Gaskin and Ahmed are cheap, fine to sign again. But I wouldn't throw much money at either. Very fungible.

Agree with @LuCane re: OL. Gotta be a little careful here. We've got a good thing going, and can't mess it up.

Draft should be all about DL and offensive skill.
Flowers isn’t starting. He started last game because Kindley was inactive. Kindley took that job from him.
 
Why'd you cut Flowers? I can see that mainly in the scenario we land at #3 overall, decide to take Sewell, and bump Hunt inside.

I can buy Najee at the 1b slot if we keep sliding down the board (because we're winning). If it's a #18/19 overall pick, it's a bit tougher to envision.

With the #4 overall pick (at worst, hopefully, if Houston loses next week) of the draft, any plan has to strongly consider moving down a bit in an exchange with a QB-hungry team. There's a ton of juice to squeeze from that fruit.

Let's wait to see what Moehrig does at the combine to see his value at #36. Good safety, obviously. I kinda have our 2b pick slated for valuable Safety.

Love the Myers, Moore, and Wiggins picks, if they fall that far.
@LuCane

Moehrig isn’t being taken with the first 2nd. Baremore took the pick you’re referring too. I gave up another 2nd because we traded down. I gave us an extra 2nd, 4th, and 5th.
 
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Flowers isn’t starting. He started last game because Kindley was inactive. Kindley took that job from him.
Flowers has started every game where he's healthy. When Kindley returns, I'd guess it's more likely he goes back to RG in place of Davis. There are also salary cap implications if you cut him. I think it's a 10M cap hit, IIRC, before 2022. Ha. I think you're ahead of yourself on this one, but we shall see.
 
@LuCane

Moehrig isn’t being taken with the first 2nd. Baremore took the pick you’re referring too. I gave up another 2nd because we traded down. I gave us an extra 2nd, 4th, and 5th.
I see. I missed the third 2nd rounder. I've seen Barmore mocked all over the place. How high would you take Najee Harris?
 
I see. I missed the third 2nd rounder. I've seen Baremore mocked all over the place. How high would you take Najee Harris?
Najee is first round talent. In 2010 he’s a top 15 pick BUT that’s not the value attached to RB anymore. I think we make the playoffs so in the 20s somewhere which I can justify it because after WR it’s the only legitimate, glaring need(Edge addressed with Floyd) so edge drops to 3rd on the board in the “need” category. I’d rather draft somebody early because it’s becoming clear that Tua needs to work off PA and RPO type plays for now. Need top tier talent at RB for that.
 
I'd be surprised if ATL wins next week. But, ya never know. If this GB game continues down this path, Houston will very likely lose next week because Tennessee needs the win (for playoff seeding).

The #3 overall pick in this draft would carry a ton of juice, btw. It'd be incredible. Not to mention it helps our 1st 2nd rounder, too.
If we are at #3 you parlay that into 2 picks. (Sub 10 and top 15-20). If done right we can have 3 first round picks. That would be perfect to get a stud WR, a DE, and a RB. Then start filling in your other needs in the top end of the 2nd round. Holy crap that would be a play for the ages.
 
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After looking at the 1st round picks, there is no one to trade with to get 3 picks in the 1st. Best case is trading down into the top 10 with 1 of these 3 teams and taking their first 2nd round pick:

• Cincy (OT Sewell is desire)
• Carolina (Need Franchise QB bad)
• Denver (Need Franchise QB bad)

At this point we still can get a high flier at WR and either cross our fingers at RB for the 2nd round, or use pick 1b on either ETN or Harris. Or we can try to trade back into the 1st with both 2nd round picks for an Edge rusher. So it would be 1A. WR, 1B. Edge, 1C. RB.

Thoughts? @Zbrod95 @LuCane @DMoney
 
For your three first round pick scenario, this is one thing I’ve thought of (obviously dependent on lucking into #3 overall):

Trade the #3 for #5/#6 pick and that team's 2nd rounder. Then package that 2nd rounder and Houston's second rounder for something like Minnesota's #14 overall pick. Minny is over the cap and needs more value contracts. You'd end up with #5, #14, #22. I like the potential WR value at #14.

This is scenario to get elite skill position talent.
 
This receiver class is deep. I don't see the need to hit free agency for a WR when we can come away with our second and third picks with a duo like Toney and Olave.

The shame in now having the third pick is deciding between a luxury pick like Sewell and a need pick like Parsons. I was fixated on Parsons for so long but now that Sewell can land in our laps, despite not having a major hole there, changes all of that. It'd be nice to protect a skittish Tua and finally have push up front when we need to pick up one or two yards. Sewell could turn us into the Colts and that would be amazing.

Those would be my first 3 picks. From there we have picks in the 50s and 80s. I wonder if it's realistic to assume that a guy like Javonte Williams would fall to mid third round or if we need to reach and take him sooner. Ideally the 50s pick goes to Edge, ILB or S -- whichever we haven't addressed in free agency.
 
Houston losing to Cincy just now is absolutely enormous for the Dolphins' draft capital. Houston plays TENN next week. TENN is fighting for playoff position. If Houston loses that game, the Phins are locked into at least a Top 5 overall pick.

So here's the question.

If that pick ends up top 3, do you trade to a team looking for a QB in order to accumulate multiple first rounders now and in the future?

Honestly, if we can trade back and still stay somewhere in or near the top 10, I would consider it.

This franchise is in a TERRIFIC place right now. Doesn't even matter if we make the playoffs or not. We have a good coach, a QB of the future, and a squad that plays hard.

EDIT - I just saw your other post above
 
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This receiver class is deep. I don't see the need to hit free agency for a WR when we can come away with our second and third picks with a duo like Toney and Olave.

The shame in now having the third pick is deciding between a luxury pick like Sewell and a need pick like Parsons. I was fixated on Parsons for so long but now that Sewell can land in our laps, despite not having a major hole there, changes all of that. It'd be nice to protect a skittish Tua and finally have push up front when we need to pick up one or two yards. Sewell could turn us into the Colts and that would be amazing.

Those would be my first 3 picks. From there we have picks in the 50s and 80s. I wonder if it's realistic to assume that a guy like Javonte Williams would fall to mid third round or if we need to reach and take him sooner. Ideally the 50s pick goes to Edge, ILB or S -- whichever we haven't addressed in free agency.
I'm in the same boat. For me, it's currently a consideration of Sewell, Chase, and Parsons. In whichever case, I try to trade down accordingly.

IF DRAFT ORDER STAYS THE SAME AS RIGHT NOW:

The Phins have the #3 pick and possible trade down partners at, #5 (Cincy moving up for Sewell), #7 (Detroit moving up for a QB), #9 (Carolina moving up for a QB), #14 (SF moving up for a QB). Each one of those would come with separate risks/rewards, obviously:

1. To go from 3rd to 5th, we'd get something like a top second round pick and might have to exchange 4th rounders.
2. To go from 3rd to 7th, we'd get something like a top second round pick, a top third round pick, and might have to exchange 4th rounders.
3. To go from 3rd to 9th, you start getting into next year's 1st rounder as a possibility, but multiple picks no matter what.
4. To go from 3rd to 14th, you almost certainly get SF's 1st rounder next year, and their 2nd rounder this year, at least.

If you go below 7th, you likely lose out on both Chase and Parsons. I think there may be be 4 QBs taken in the first 7 picks. And, Sewell. That leaves either Chase or Parsons available at 7. Most likely, if the order stays the same right now, Chase wouldn't be there because he's unlikely to get passed Philly at #6.

If we do the deal with Detroit and end up with their 2nd and 3rd, you can grab some high level guys with those selections. For example, S Paris Ford and Slot Amari Rodgers. Or, stick at #3 and take Sewell for perhaps the most dominant OL in the NFL? Sewell is 20 years old right now. Someone better do their due diligence there and make sure we don't pass up a future perennial All-Pro - regardless of need.

The Dolphins better not get complacent or draft blindly for need. When I argued and prayed we wouldn't trade up for Tua last year, I got accused of "******* around" or quibbling. I wasn't a Tua disciple, so it was easier. I call it squeezing the most out of whatever is there. And, we should do the same this year.
 
After looking at the 1st round picks, there is no one to trade with to get 3 picks in the 1st. Best case is trading down into the top 10 with 1 of these 3 teams and taking their first 2nd round pick:

• Cincy (OT Sewell is desire)
• Carolina (Need Franchise QB bad)
• Denver (Need Franchise QB bad)

At this point we still can get a high flier at WR and either cross our fingers at RB for the 2nd round, or use pick 1b on either ETN or Harris. Or we can try to trade back into the 1st with both 2nd round picks for an Edge rusher. So it would be 1A. WR, 1B. Edge, 1C. RB.

Thoughts? @Zbrod95 @LuCane @DMoney
Honestly, I’m leaning towards signing an edge guy because we need immediate impact so the D can take the next step. That leaves WR and RB as the glaring holes so I would be fine with Najee with the 2nd 1st rounder.
 
I'm in the same boat. For me, it's currently a consideration of Sewell, Chase, and Parsons. In whichever case, I try to trade down accordingly.

IF DRAFT ORDER STAYS THE SAME AS RIGHT NOW:

The Phins have the #3 pick and possible trade down partners at, #5 (Cincy moving up for Sewell), #7 (Detroit moving up for a QB), #9 (Carolina moving up for a QB), #14 (SF moving up for a QB). Each one of those would come with separate risks/rewards, obviously:

1. To go from 3rd to 5th, we'd get something like a top second round pick and might have to exchange 4th rounders.
2. To go from 3rd to 7th, we'd get something like a top second round pick, a top third round pick, and might have to exchange 4th rounders.
3. To go from 3rd to 9th, you start getting into next year's 1st rounder as a possibility, but multiple picks no matter what.
4. To go from 3rd to 14th, you almost certainly get SF's 1st rounder next year, and their 2nd rounder this year, at least.

If you go below 7th, you likely lose out on both Chase and Parsons. I think there may be be 4 QBs taken in the first 7 picks. And, Sewell. That leaves either Chase or Parsons available at 7. Most likely, if the order stays the same right now, Chase wouldn't be there because he's unlikely to get passed Philly at #6.

If we do the deal with Detroit and end up with their 2nd and 3rd, you can grab some high level guys with those selections. For example, S Paris Ford and Slot Amari Rodgers. Or, stick at #3 and take Sewell for perhaps the most dominant OL in the NFL? Sewell is 20 years old right now. Someone better do their due diligence there and make sure we don't pass up a future perennial All-Pro - regardless of need.

The Dolphins better not get complacent or draft blindly for need. When I argued and prayed we wouldn't trade up for Tua last year, I got accused of "******* around" or quibbling. I wasn't a Tua disciple, so it was easier. I call it squeezing the most out of whatever is there. And, we should do the same this year.
Luckily this draft provides a lot of overlap between best available and major need. The one exemption being Sewell at #3. But if the hype is to be believed, this is the best OL prospect of the past decade. You simply don’t miss out on that. Who knows, there’s even a possibility the Jets don’t miss out on it despite taking a great LT in last year’s draft.

Much of the trading down IMO is going to be dictated by what we do in free agency. Given the way this team is geared for the future, the money available, and the fact that we’re in Miami, we are shaping up to be the premiere location for free agents this offseason. You factor that in with the four picks we already have in the first 60 picks and I think the mentality should be quality over quantity this offseason.

The only way I’m trading out of our top 5 pick is if Sewell is gone and we do something like OP recommends and sign Leonard Floyd in free agency and thus no longer need Parsons. Unless Chase is the guaranteed god of receivers, spending a top 5 pick on him is too rich in a draft loaded with receivers. I’d rather trade down to pick 7-10 and get whoever is available between Chase, Waddle, and Smith and the extra pick.


Our priorities this offseason need to be: WR, Slot WR, Edge, RB, ILB and Safety. If I’m GM I don’t spend the money on a RB or WRs and instead take the discount the draft provides. Of the positions left over I sign as many bonafide studs as I can or I look to fill those positions in the draft.

Let me ask you something: is a draft order of #3 Sewell, #20ish best WR, #35 best WR, too rich for you? Would you rather take the second receiver later on? Or maybe not at all?
 
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After looking at the 1st round picks, there is no one to trade with to get 3 picks in the 1st. Best case is trading down into the top 10 with 1 of these 3 teams and taking their first 2nd round pick:

• Cincy (OT Sewell is desire)
• Carolina (Need Franchise QB bad)
• Denver (Need Franchise QB bad)

At this point we still can get a high flier at WR and either cross our fingers at RB for the 2nd round, or use pick 1b on either ETN or Harris. Or we can try to trade back into the 1st with both 2nd round picks for an Edge rusher. So it would be 1A. WR, 1B. Edge, 1C. RB.

Thoughts? @Zbrod95 @LuCane @DMoney

A trade down makes sense now that we have a QB. This is an offense-heavy draft which aligns with our needs.
 
Luckily this draft provides a lot of overlap between best available and major need. The one exemption being Sewell at #3. But if the hype is to be believed, this is the best OL prospect of the past decade. You simply don’t miss out on that. Who knows, there’s even a possibility the Jets don’t miss out on it despite taking a great LT in last year’s draft.

Much of the trading down IMO is going to be dictated by what we do in free agency. Given the way this team is geared for the future, the money available, and the fact that we’re in Miami, we are shaping up to be the premiere location for free agents this offseason. You factor that in with the four picks we already have in the first 60 picks and I think the mentality should be quality over quantity this offseason.

The only way I’m trading out of our top 5 pick is if Sewell is gone and we do something like OP recommends and sign Leonard Floyd in free agency and thus no longer need Parsons. Unless Chase is the guaranteed god of receivers, spending a top 5 pick on him is too rich in a draft loaded with receivers. I’d rather trade down to pick 7-10 and get whoever is available between Chase, Waddle, and Smith and the extra pick.


Our priorities this offseason need to be: WR, Slot WR, Edge, RB, ILB and Safety. If I’m GM I don’t spend the money on a RB or WRs and instead take the discount the draft provides. Of the positions left over I sign as many bonafide studs as I can or I look to fill those positions in the draft.

Let me ask you something: is a draft order of #3 Sewell, #20ish best WR, #35 best WR, too rich for you? Would you rather take the second receiver later on? Or maybe not at all?
If they take Sewell at #3, they might consider packaging the #22 and #54 for something in the 12-14 range. They could then be more confident in landing someone like Smith or Waddle. Gotta see how the combine buzz works out, too.
 
Honestly, I’m leaning towards signing an edge guy because we need immediate impact so the D can take the next step. That leaves WR and RB as the glaring holes so I would be fine with Najee with the 2nd 1st rounder.
I’m proud and shocked at the same time. You conceding to the RB with in the 1st round. It’s noon or bust. If they are trash we wasted a valuable pick. But if we hit, as I think @LuCane said, a stud on a rookie contract. Win now mode.
 
the best thing that can happen for the dolphins now is for teams to fall in love with zach wilson. the worst case scenario is wilson slipping down draft boards and the jets taking sewell with no team looking to trade up to 3. taking sewell or trading down make a lot of sense to me -- picking sewell and sliding hunt inside while also tabbing him as your third tackle is a seamless fit to me.

the positional value on the rest of the guys in this draft at 3 just isn't great. parsons is out of the question for me. chase will be a good player but w/ a WR pick inside the top 3 you're really looking for an andre johnson, calvin johnson, larry fitzgerald type talent. chase put up the stats but just from a physical perspective he isn't there, obviously. i'm growing more comfortable w/ idea of taking chase because the board is the board and you have to pick someone even if they aren't a generational physical talent, but it would still feel like the dice didn't quite roll in the dolphins' direction.

i guess the other question is whether the dolphins consider drafting wilson... it seems highly unlikely. fields isn't it for me as a pro and 3 is way too high to take someone w/ lance's background.

ultimately i'm hoping it's sewell -- if you get him you're looking at having one of the best young offensive lines in the NFL, and you can still address your skill position needs later in the draft and FA. dolphins could walk into 2021 w/ one of the brightest offensive futures in the league.
 
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