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- Jan 16, 2012
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I cant see how willis is a 3rd rounder or MJ a 6th.
The projections are a bit flawed. I disagree with a lot of them, but taking this at face value.
Gerald Willis - the 10th ranked iDL typically goes off the board somewhere in Rounds 3 to 4 depending on the quality of the year or if there is a league wide need. Him being 86th says he's more of a late 3rd round pick. No projections have him anything higher than a high 3rd. Late 3, Early 4 seems like a safe projection.
Joe Jackson - 14th best EDGE...that is a 4th rounder pretty much every year. Only Drafttek has him as a R3 type player.
Johnson/Redwine - in the realm of 10-15 best (I'm going to assume safety, although I think Redwine could project well to CB)...but in those ranges, you're safely in the EARLY Round 4 range...their overall draft position based on this says they are more of a late 4 into the 5th round player.
Jackson - 21st best cornerback again, is a 4th round pick.
(btw - this would be an easier discussion if it were just "defensive back")
Homer - 19th best RB is a late 6, to late 7th depending on the year.
I think a majority of people here are overrating Joe Jackson.
He's never been a 10 sack guy and doesn't project to be that. If you're not a 10 sack projection, you are are the type of player that needs a team to love you because you really are indiscernible from at least a dozen true down lineman in the draft. If you're a run protection first end or just a "solid base" end...you're just not special and lots of guys can do that...
Thats not to say that Jackson isn't going to be good. But he's got a ceiling. Especially when you are a horrendous testing athlete. He's a 3rd percentile athlete. He hit a NEGATIVE TWO SIGMA...anyone below a -2.0 sigma athlete are considered NON-NFL ATHLETES. So, I think we need to temper expectations right now on Jackson...not only where he projects to be drafted, but what his real NFL projection is.
I think a majority of people here are overrating Joe Jackson.
He's never been a 10 sack guy and doesn't project to be that. If you're not a 10 sack projection, you are are the type of player that needs a team to love you because you really are indiscernible from at least a dozen true down lineman in the draft. If you're a run protection first end or just a "solid base" end...you're just not special and lots of guys can do that...
Thats not to say that Jackson isn't going to be good. But he's got a ceiling. Especially when you are a horrendous testing athlete. He's a 3rd percentile athlete. He hit a NEGATIVE TWO SIGMA...anyone below a -2.0 sigma athlete are considered NON-NFL ATHLETES. So, I think we need to temper expectations right now on Jackson...not only where he projects to be drafted, but what his real NFL projection is.
Hope the Bucs don’t draft Gary, if you can’t produce at the college level what makes nfl guys think he can in the league? One of the most overrated guys that are projected to go first round right nowJoe Jackson had as many sacks last year as Rashan Gary has had in his entire college career. Gary is a projected first rounder. It's not a matter of production.
Hope the Bucs don’t draft Gary, if you can’t produce at the college level what makes nfl guys think he can in the league? One of the most overrated guys that are projected to go first round right now
I’m not using a top 5 pick on a non productive elite athlete on the edge. Something ain’t right there. How can you have all of those physical gifts but not translate it to the field?For the same reason Miami fans think that our players will be better on the next level.
I agree, he would be a great value pick in the 3rd or 4th round, but I think the Ravens will probably draft a kid that comes from a 3-4 system.@Liberty City El it would be a win-win if ravens draft Joe Jackson. We need pass rush badly and with suggs gone, he could get tons of playing time immediately. Fingers crossed
I’m not using a top 5 pick on a non productive elite athlete on the edge. Something ain’t right there. How can you have all of those physical gifts but not translate it to the field?
IMO our player development has been trash.
Whether it's from a coaching standpoint or an S&C standpoint, our players leave Miami unpolished. You look at their draft analysis and there's always negative comments about their technique.
The guys we send to the NFL are making it there solely on their physical gifts. Joe Jackson, Chad Thomas, Mike Jackson, Gerald Willis, etc...all could've been better players IMO. They're all physically gifted and look amazing getting off the bus, but none of them got better while they were here. You can argue that if you want to, but if they were developed properly, with their physical attributes, then they would've been first/second rounders. The top programs are taking kids like them and turning them into early draft picks.
Coming out of high school, these weren't some genetically inferior low-rated kids who were "developed" into NFL players by our staff. These kids were sought after. Even as a Freshman, nobody ever questioned whether Joe Jackson or Chad Thomas could turn into an NFL player. The question would be what round. You can tell early who's got NFL potential. Barring any injuries, we already know that Nesta and Rouseau will be NFL prospects in a couple years. Development will determine WHERE.
And development has been an issue at Miami for some years. It shows in the W/L column and it shows in the NFL.
Top 5 picks will likely be two Qbs, Nick Bosa, Quinnen Williams, and Ed Oliver or Josh Allen. Maybe Devin White.I’m not using a top 5 pick on a non productive elite athlete on the edge. Something ain’t right there. How can you have all of those physical gifts but not translate it to the field?
For the same reason Miami fans think that our players will be better on the next level.
It's the same on the high school level. A CB can have 31 career interceptions but be a 3-star while another kid with 6 career interceptions is a 5-star because he's 6'2".It's really interesting to compare Gary, Jackson, and Chad Thomas
Rashan Gary
9.5 career sacks
277 lbs, 4.58, 38" vert
5 Star #1 player coming out of HS
Projected 1st Round
Chad Thomas
10 career sacks
281 lbs, 4.92, 29" vert
5 Star #25 player coming out of HS
3rd pick of 3rd Round (#67 overall)
Joe Jackson
22.5 career sacks
275 lbs, 4.58, 27" vert
4 Star #215 player coming out of HS
Projected 3rd/4th Round
Gary = Huge Recruit + Great Athlete + Underachieving Production = 1st Round
Thomas = Huge Recruit + Sub-par Athlete + Underachieving Production = 3rd Round
Jackson = Good Recruit + Sub-par Athlete + High Production = 3rd/4th Round
In following the draft more closely in recent years, I'm surprised at how much having a reputation as a big time recruit can help give you a bump in where a player is drafted.
It's definitely much more common than I realized.
One thing I'm not worried about is the Ravens having a good draft. Some of the best in the biz (except at receiver for some reason).I agree, he would be a great value pick in the 3rd or 4th round, but I think the Ravens will probably draft a kid that comes from a 3-4 system.
But one thing we can expect is there will be lots of trade backs by the Ravens, they only have 8 picks this draft & no 2nd round, so you can bet money De Costa will be trading back as much as possible to load up on picks especially from 2nd - 6th round.
I really hope we get a WR, RB, OLB, C/OG & another Safety.
Joe Jackson is a good pass rusher on the edge too but they act like he isn’t for whatever reason. If the guys who they say have bend or moves on the edge (polite/burns) then why was joe Jackson just as productive than them and averaged more sacks per year the last 3? No one is saying he has elite traits for pass rushing but he gets the job done regardless of his perceived limitations. Don’t make any sense but he’s going to be great value wherever he’s picked. I want The Bucs to take him in the 2nd or 3rd round. And “elite” traits be damned I’ll take joe Jackson over a guy like Rashan Gary ANY day who is projected top 10 mainly because of his elite athleticism because it **** sure ain’t because of what he’s done on the field
It's really interesting to compare Gary, Jackson, and Chad Thomas
Rashan Gary
9.5 career sacks
277 lbs, 4.58, 38" vert
5 Star #1 player coming out of HS
Projected 1st Round
Chad Thomas
10 career sacks
281 lbs, 4.92, 29" vert
5 Star #25 player coming out of HS
3rd pick of 3rd Round (#67 overall)
Joe Jackson
22.5 career sacks
275 lbs, 4.86, 27" vert
4 Star #215 player coming out of HS
Projected 3rd/4th Round
Gary = Huge Recruit + Great Athlete + Underachieving Production = 1st Round
Thomas = Huge Recruit + Sub-par Athlete + Underachieving Production = 3rd Round
Jackson = Good Recruit + Sub-par Athlete + High Production = 3rd/4th Round
In following the draft more closely in recent years, I'm surprised at how much having a reputation as a big time recruit can help give you a bump in where a player is drafted.
It's definitely much more common than I realized.