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Draft - Miami Players Consensus Projections

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BoxingRobes said:
The projections are a bit flawed. I disagree with a lot of them, but taking this at face value.

Gerald Willis - the 10th ranked iDL typically goes off the board somewhere in Rounds 3 to 4 depending on the quality of the year or if there is a league wide need. Him being 86th says he's more of a late 3rd round pick. No projections have him anything higher than a high 3rd. Late 3, Early 4 seems like a safe projection.

Joe Jackson - 14th best EDGE...that is a 4th rounder pretty much every year. Only Drafttek has him as a R3 type player.

Johnson/Redwine - in the realm of 10-15 best (I'm going to assume safety, although I think Redwine could project well to CB)...but in those ranges, you're safely in the EARLY Round 4 range...their overall draft position based on this says they are more of a late 4 into the 5th round player.

Jackson - 21st best cornerback again, is a 4th round pick.

(btw - this would be an easier discussion if it were just "defensive back")

Homer - 19th best RB is a late 6, to late 7th depending on the year.
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That's why I think looking at the draft range is important.

Last year Chad Thomas went surprisingly high (early 3rd). RJ McIntosh & Kendrick Norton went on the lower end.

I think just like these draft sites rankings can differ wildly, so will actually teams draft boards.

It's just an educated guess, but crazy things can happen. It's really hard to say for sure what round a player will go outside of the first 2 rounds.
 
I think a majority of people here are overrating Joe Jackson.

He's never been a 10 sack guy and doesn't project to be that. If you're not a 10 sack projection, you are are the type of player that needs a team to love you because you really are indiscernible from at least a dozen true down lineman in the draft. If you're a run protection first end or just a "solid base" end...you're just not special and lots of guys can do that...

Thats not to say that Jackson isn't going to be good. But he's got a ceiling. Especially when you are a horrendous testing athlete. He's a 3rd percentile athlete. He hit a NEGATIVE TWO SIGMA...anyone below a -2.0 sigma athlete are considered NON-NFL ATHLETES. So, I think we need to temper expectations right now on Jackson...not only where he projects to be drafted, but what his real NFL projection is.
 
BoxingRobes said:
I think a majority of people here are overrating Joe Jackson.

He's never been a 10 sack guy and doesn't project to be that. If you're not a 10 sack projection, you are are the type of player that needs a team to love you because you really are indiscernible from at least a dozen true down lineman in the draft. If you're a run protection first end or just a "solid base" end...you're just not special and lots of guys can do that...

Thats not to say that Jackson isn't going to be good. But he's got a ceiling. Especially when you are a horrendous testing athlete. He's a 3rd percentile athlete. He hit a NEGATIVE TWO SIGMA...anyone below a -2.0 sigma athlete are considered NON-NFL ATHLETES. So, I think we need to temper expectations right now on Jackson...not only where he projects to be drafted, but what his real NFL projection is.
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Can't tell these people that.
He had 9 sacks at Miami. He's gotta be a steal for the next level.
 
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BoxingRobes said:
I think a majority of people here are overrating Joe Jackson.

He's never been a 10 sack guy and doesn't project to be that. If you're not a 10 sack projection, you are are the type of player that needs a team to love you because you really are indiscernible from at least a dozen true down lineman in the draft. If you're a run protection first end or just a "solid base" end...you're just not special and lots of guys can do that...

Thats not to say that Jackson isn't going to be good. But he's got a ceiling. Especially when you are a horrendous testing athlete. He's a 3rd percentile athlete. He hit a NEGATIVE TWO SIGMA...anyone below a -2.0 sigma athlete are considered NON-NFL ATHLETES. So, I think we need to temper expectations right now on Jackson...not only where he projects to be drafted, but what his real NFL projection is.
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We seem to do that a lot around here.
 
DTP said:
Joe Jackson had as many sacks last year as Rashan Gary has had in his entire college career. Gary is a projected first rounder. It's not a matter of production.
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Hope the Bucs don’t draft Gary, if you can’t produce at the college level what makes nfl guys think he can in the league? One of the most overrated guys that are projected to go first round right now
 
brock said:
Hope the Bucs don’t draft Gary, if you can’t produce at the college level what makes nfl guys think he can in the league? One of the most overrated guys that are projected to go first round right now
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For the same reason Miami fans think that our players will be better on the next level.
 
Coach Macho said:
For the same reason Miami fans think that our players will be better on the next level.
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I’m not using a top 5 pick on a non productive elite athlete on the edge. Something ain’t right there. How can you have all of those physical gifts but not translate it to the field?
 
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I would love to see any of the current cane Defensive guys get drafted by my cowboys!

Willis would kill it as our 3tech... would love if he was our 2nd round pick

Joe could take Tacos spots at DE whose been a bust of a 1st rounder

JJ could take heaths spot at safety we’ve had lacked a difference maker at safety with instincts since Darren Woodson retired

MJ is what our defensive coordinator who came from the Seahawks likes.. Richard Sherman clone.. tall, long and sticky in coverage
 
ScharfCane said:
@Liberty City El it would be a win-win if ravens draft Joe Jackson. We need pass rush badly and with suggs gone, he could get tons of playing time immediately. Fingers crossed
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I agree, he would be a great value pick in the 3rd or 4th round, but I think the Ravens will probably draft a kid that comes from a 3-4 system.

But one thing we can expect is there will be lots of trade backs by the Ravens, they only have 8 picks this draft & no 2nd round, so you can bet money De Costa will be trading back as much as possible to load up on picks especially from 2nd - 6th round.

I really hope we get a WR, RB, OLB, C/OG & another Safety.
 
brock said:
I’m not using a top 5 pick on a non productive elite athlete on the edge. Something ain’t right there. How can you have all of those physical gifts but not translate it to the field?
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Because the game is more than drills in shorts and t shirts. Rashan Gary has been an average football player for three years despite being a superior athlete. That's means one of two things. Either he just has no technique or football savvy and is just getting by completely on raw ability. Or, he was not trying very hard in college. Either way, I'm not using a 1st round pick on a guy like that. Naturally, the Dolphins will jump all over him.

If you can pass rush in college, you can pass rush in the NFL. Guys like Von Miller and Elvis Dumerville didn't even have positions coming out of college but both were proven sack artists. The skill translates pretty well to the NFL level. If you're a major conference "rush end" and you're putting together double digit sack seasons in college, there's a good chance you'll be able to do it at the next level too.
 
Coach Macho said:
IMO our player development has been trash.

Whether it's from a coaching standpoint or an S&C standpoint, our players leave Miami unpolished. You look at their draft analysis and there's always negative comments about their technique.

The guys we send to the NFL are making it there solely on their physical gifts. Joe Jackson, Chad Thomas, Mike Jackson, Gerald Willis, etc...all could've been better players IMO. They're all physically gifted and look amazing getting off the bus, but none of them got better while they were here. You can argue that if you want to, but if they were developed properly, with their physical attributes, then they would've been first/second rounders. The top programs are taking kids like them and turning them into early draft picks.

Coming out of high school, these weren't some genetically inferior low-rated kids who were "developed" into NFL players by our staff. These kids were sought after. Even as a Freshman, nobody ever questioned whether Joe Jackson or Chad Thomas could turn into an NFL player. The question would be what round. You can tell early who's got NFL potential. Barring any injuries, we already know that Nesta and Rouseau will be NFL prospects in a couple years. Development will determine WHERE.
And development has been an issue at Miami for some years. It shows in the W/L column and it shows in the NFL.
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With few exceptions (David Njoku, Redwine, Rayshawn Jenkins, Travis Homer, Michael Jackson)...our team athleticism has been horrendous. Not "not good", not "below average", not "bad"...buck embarrassingly horrendous.

Long time, high star starters for us...McDermott, Darling, Chad Thomas, Joe Jackson, Jaquan Johnson, Tito, Mark Walton, Jamal Carter...I could go on...but you get the point. Like, go look at their 3sigma scores...guys that aren't even FBS quality athletes. Really bad trend that needs to stop immediately. You have people on this very forum saying getting guys like Lejond Cavazos isn't that important because he's "low on our board"...whatever that means. All I know is he is one of the best athletes in the country...you take that all day every day. I'll take my chances.
 
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brock said:
I’m not using a top 5 pick on a non productive elite athlete on the edge. Something ain’t right there. How can you have all of those physical gifts but not translate it to the field?
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Top 5 picks will likely be two Qbs, Nick Bosa, Quinnen Williams, and Ed Oliver or Josh Allen. Maybe Devin White.
 
Coach Macho said:
For the same reason Miami fans think that our players will be better on the next level.
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It's really interesting to compare Gary, Jackson, and Chad Thomas

Rashan Gary
9.5 career sacks
277 lbs, 4.58, 38" vert
5 Star #1 player coming out of HS
Projected 1st Round

Chad Thomas
10 career sacks
281 lbs, 4.92, 29" vert
5 Star #25 player coming out of HS
3rd pick of 3rd Round (#67 overall)

Joe Jackson
22.5 career sacks
275 lbs, 4.86, 27" vert
4 Star #215 player coming out of HS
Projected 3rd/4th Round

Gary = Huge Recruit + Great Athlete + Underachieving Production = 1st Round
Thomas = Huge Recruit + Sub-par Athlete + Underachieving Production = 3rd Round
Jackson = Good Recruit + Sub-par Athlete + High Production = 3rd/4th Round

In following the draft more closely in recent years, I'm surprised at how much having a reputation as a big time recruit can help give you a bump in where a player is drafted.

It's definitely much more common than I realized.
 
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bshaw28 said:
It's really interesting to compare Gary, Jackson, and Chad Thomas

Rashan Gary
9.5 career sacks
277 lbs, 4.58, 38" vert
5 Star #1 player coming out of HS
Projected 1st Round

Chad Thomas
10 career sacks
281 lbs, 4.92, 29" vert
5 Star #25 player coming out of HS
3rd pick of 3rd Round (#67 overall)

Joe Jackson
22.5 career sacks
275 lbs, 4.58, 27" vert
4 Star #215 player coming out of HS
Projected 3rd/4th Round

Gary = Huge Recruit + Great Athlete + Underachieving Production = 1st Round
Thomas = Huge Recruit + Sub-par Athlete + Underachieving Production = 3rd Round
Jackson = Good Recruit + Sub-par Athlete + High Production = 3rd/4th Round

In following the draft more closely in recent years, I'm surprised at how much having a reputation as a big time recruit can help give you a bump in where a player is drafted.

It's definitely much more common than I realized.
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It's the same on the high school level. A CB can have 31 career interceptions but be a 3-star while another kid with 6 career interceptions is a 5-star because he's 6'2".
 
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Liberty City El said:
I agree, he would be a great value pick in the 3rd or 4th round, but I think the Ravens will probably draft a kid that comes from a 3-4 system.

But one thing we can expect is there will be lots of trade backs by the Ravens, they only have 8 picks this draft & no 2nd round, so you can bet money De Costa will be trading back as much as possible to load up on picks especially from 2nd - 6th round.

I really hope we get a WR, RB, OLB, C/OG & another Safety.
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One thing I'm not worried about is the Ravens having a good draft. Some of the best in the biz (except at receiver for some reason).
 
brock said:
Joe Jackson is a good pass rusher on the edge too but they act like he isn’t for whatever reason. If the guys who they say have bend or moves on the edge (polite/burns) then why was joe Jackson just as productive than them and averaged more sacks per year the last 3? No one is saying he has elite traits for pass rushing but he gets the job done regardless of his perceived limitations. Don’t make any sense but he’s going to be great value wherever he’s picked. I want The Bucs to take him in the 2nd or 3rd round. And “elite” traits be damned I’ll take joe Jackson over a guy like Rashan Gary ANY day who is projected top 10 mainly because of his elite athleticism because it **** sure ain’t because of what he’s done on the field
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He didn't go to UF or FSU so the Bucs don't even know he exists. Especially with Winston still around I have just given up on even caring. Since getting rid of Gruden they have made an artform of just getting worst.
 
To call Thomas and Jackson sub par athletes is disingenuous. They
bshaw28 said:
It's really interesting to compare Gary, Jackson, and Chad Thomas

Rashan Gary
9.5 career sacks
277 lbs, 4.58, 38" vert
5 Star #1 player coming out of HS
Projected 1st Round

Chad Thomas
10 career sacks
281 lbs, 4.92, 29" vert
5 Star #25 player coming out of HS
3rd pick of 3rd Round (#67 overall)

Joe Jackson
22.5 career sacks
275 lbs, 4.86, 27" vert
4 Star #215 player coming out of HS
Projected 3rd/4th Round

Gary = Huge Recruit + Great Athlete + Underachieving Production = 1st Round
Thomas = Huge Recruit + Sub-par Athlete + Underachieving Production = 3rd Round
Jackson = Good Recruit + Sub-par Athlete + High Production = 3rd/4th Round

In following the draft more closely in recent years, I'm surprised at how much having a reputation as a big time recruit can help give you a bump in where a player is drafted.

It's definitely much more common than I realized.
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Rashan Gary was a two time first team all conference player.
Joe Jackson made Honorable Mention once.

Maybe Gary was also a much better player.

Thomas is a much better athletic tester, too. Joe Jackson's testing was bad, man. As bad as CeCe Jefferson and Jachai Polite. There are not many guys on rosters that are as unathletic as those guys.

Joe Jackson's athletic profile projects as a practice squad player. Data going back 6 years...players with Jackson's athletic profile on the EDGE are mostly practice squad guys. Your upside here is Ryan Anderson (2 career sacks) and Markus Golden (popped for a 12.5 sack season in his second year, but per pff a career below average player).

Whatever your projection for Jackson is, you should probably lower it.
 
Lol at Mike Jackson being a 6th round draft pick... he’ll get drafted by the 3rd at the latest.

Joe Jackson - 1st round
Gerald Willis - 2nd round
Mike Jack - 2nd round
Jaquan Johnson - 4th round
Sheldrick Redwine - 4th round
Travis Homer - 4th round
 
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