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Objectively UF is the favorite to win on Aug. 24, but not by much. That early -7.5 line that's been put out is going to change a lot before kickoff. There are three crucial facets to this game that will determine who wins. They are QB play, line play, and which team will have more skill players that break out. Starting at the QB position, a lot of people are vastly overrating how good Felipe Franks is and how he performed last year. There's been a lot of talk about UF having a clear QB advantage over us, but I wouldn't be so quick to make that claim. On the surface, people look at Franks and think there was a massive improvement from the 2017 season to the 2018 season. Here are his main stats for both years.
Looks pretty good right? From 2017 to 2018 there are some big differences in the stat line. Comparatively, Franks threw 45% more passes, had 71% more yards passed overall, less int's, a better QB rating, and a 21% increase in his avg. yd's per pass. Mullen's scheme put him in a better position than 2017, and Mullen's QB development is better than McElwain's by far. But, if you take a closer look at Franks "improved" stats, you'll see that they're majorly inflated by playing bad competition and that he struggled against even subpar teams. Below is Frank's 2018 stat line versus above .500 teams and against below .500/D2 teams.
Overall, you can see that when playing above .500 teams (which included UK, Miss. St., LSU, UGA, Mizzou, USC, and U Mich.) Franks had 32% more attempts but had a 7.4% lower comp. %, only 46% of his overall yards passed against these teams, 67% less TD's, more INT's, and a 41% lower QB rating. To his credit, he was not an INT prone QB last year and was smart with the ball. Nevertheless, he only passed for more than 200 yards in 6 games, of which 4 were against below .500 teams. In 7 games he threw for less than 180 yards, and against UGA and Mizzou he threw for 105 yards and 84 yards a piece.
Franks has the edge with experience, having played in 25 games over the course of his career. During his two years of play though, he's proven to be a below average-average QB against teams above .500. Against teams with a Top 25 defense, he's struggled to make an impact. While our 3 QB's have little game time experience (particularly Tate and Jarren), Franks has the added advantage of playing time and an inflated stat line. You could say Franks is the better QB on playing time alone, but that would ignore his stat line against teams with a pulse. I know it's old and not relevant to Aug. 24, but I remember people saying in 2013 how Jeff Driskell was the clearly better QB than Stephen Morris. Driskell also had an inflated stat line, and he played like hot garbage against us.
There's always the possibility that if Franks doesn't deliver, Mullen could bring in Emory Jones to change up his offense. Jones though doesn't have much game time experience (similar experience to some of our QB's) and he hasn't been able to beat out Franks outright over two years. While UF has a very slight advantage at QB because of Frank's in-game experience, don't be surprised if our starting QB plays better than Franks, and if he struggles big time because of our front 7. If Tate/N'Kosi/Jarren play better than Franks/Emory, we're winning this game.
Other Notes
Year | Comp. | Attempts | Comp. % | Yards | Avg. Per Pass | TD's | INT's | QB Rating |
2018 | 188 | 322 | 58.4% | 2,457 | 7.6 | 24 | 6 | 143.3 |
2017 | 125 | 229 | 54.6% | 1,438 | 6.3 | 9 | 8 | 113.3 |
Looks pretty good right? From 2017 to 2018 there are some big differences in the stat line. Comparatively, Franks threw 45% more passes, had 71% more yards passed overall, less int's, a better QB rating, and a 21% increase in his avg. yd's per pass. Mullen's scheme put him in a better position than 2017, and Mullen's QB development is better than McElwain's by far. But, if you take a closer look at Franks "improved" stats, you'll see that they're majorly inflated by playing bad competition and that he struggled against even subpar teams. Below is Frank's 2018 stat line versus above .500 teams and against below .500/D2 teams.
Type of Team | Comp. | Attempts | Comp. % | Yards | Avg. Per Pass | TD's | INT's | QB Rating |
Above .500 Teams | 101 | 183 | 55.2% | 1,135 | 6.2 | 6 | 4 | 75.74 |
Below .500/D2 Teams | 87 | 139 | 62.6% | 1,322 | 9.5 | 18 | 2 | 127.45 |
Overall, you can see that when playing above .500 teams (which included UK, Miss. St., LSU, UGA, Mizzou, USC, and U Mich.) Franks had 32% more attempts but had a 7.4% lower comp. %, only 46% of his overall yards passed against these teams, 67% less TD's, more INT's, and a 41% lower QB rating. To his credit, he was not an INT prone QB last year and was smart with the ball. Nevertheless, he only passed for more than 200 yards in 6 games, of which 4 were against below .500 teams. In 7 games he threw for less than 180 yards, and against UGA and Mizzou he threw for 105 yards and 84 yards a piece.
Franks has the edge with experience, having played in 25 games over the course of his career. During his two years of play though, he's proven to be a below average-average QB against teams above .500. Against teams with a Top 25 defense, he's struggled to make an impact. While our 3 QB's have little game time experience (particularly Tate and Jarren), Franks has the added advantage of playing time and an inflated stat line. You could say Franks is the better QB on playing time alone, but that would ignore his stat line against teams with a pulse. I know it's old and not relevant to Aug. 24, but I remember people saying in 2013 how Jeff Driskell was the clearly better QB than Stephen Morris. Driskell also had an inflated stat line, and he played like hot garbage against us.
There's always the possibility that if Franks doesn't deliver, Mullen could bring in Emory Jones to change up his offense. Jones though doesn't have much game time experience (similar experience to some of our QB's) and he hasn't been able to beat out Franks outright over two years. While UF has a very slight advantage at QB because of Frank's in-game experience, don't be surprised if our starting QB plays better than Franks, and if he struggles big time because of our front 7. If Tate/N'Kosi/Jarren play better than Franks/Emory, we're winning this game.
Other Notes
- The OL advantage is a wash for both teams, at least in a direct comparison. UF's replacing 4 of their starters from last year's team, and we're trying to figure out which 5 of our guys are worth starting. Scheme-wise, our OL will benefit from Enos' offense, a big FB in Realus, and a mobile QB.
- UF will have a solid front seven, but it won't be better than ours. We've got 3 senior and game tested LB's starting, a front four including Garvin, Hill, Nesta, Rousseau, and a number of solid rotational players. While we're losing Gerald Willis, no doubt our #1 player on the line last year, UF is losing Polite, Joseph, and a few rotational guys. They'll have an advantage in the secondary, with us losing Redwine and JJ4. If our front 7 plays to their potential, UF is going to be a one-dimensional offense. The same will be said if their front 7 play lights out. Of both, with the added advantage of in-game film and depth, we're better positioned.
- We have a massive advantage at TE, and it isn't even close. UF's TE's did absolutely nothing last year for their offense, and Kyle Pitts (the guy who they keep saying is better than Mallory and Brevin) had 52 yards of his overall 73 yards on one TD catch against Idaho. We've got proven playmakers at this position, they don't. Simple as that.
- At WR, both teams have talented but inexperienced guys. At the top of the depth chart, we've got the advantage here. Our top-2 receivers (right now) are Jeff Thomas and KJ Osborn. UF's top-2 receivers are Van Jefferson and Trevon Grimes. Despite being on the field more and having more opportunities to make plays, Jeff Thomas outperformed Jefferson and Grimes. He had more yards per catch, more TD's than Grimes, and more yards overall than both. KJ Osborn beat out everyone with a big stat line (though against worse competition). JT4 barely got on the field and still outperformed these guys. While UF has some talented guys behind Jefferson and Grimes, as we do, it doesn't make sense for their fans to say they have an advantage at WR. Clearly, at the top, we have the advantage.
- Last Year, Jordan Scarlett and Lamical Perrine split reps, meaning that neither was going to stand out. With Scarlet gone, Perrine and sophomore RB Daemeon Pierce are going to be their 1-2 tandem. Perrine is a solid RB and will be a big problem for us if he gets going. Pierce is a more inexperienced guy but is a good prospect with some in-game experience. On our side, we've got Deejay, Cam'ron Davis, Lingard (hopefully), and Burns (hopefully). We've got better talent at RB than UF, but it's a wash comparing our top-2 RB's. I don't think either team is going to get much of a running game going on Aug. 24., but we've got a better shot at doing something since UF will be facing our front seven, and they won't have much film on our O.
- Until Hedley can get on the field and prove that he's a major upgrade over Feagles and Spicer, UF has a big advantage in their punting game. Their Punter, Tommy Townsend, is miles above what we've had for the past few years. We just need Hedley to come in and be a big upgrade over the past two years of punting, we don't need him to be better than Townsend. At kicker, Baxa had a decent first year going 9/12 on FG's and 45/46 on XP's. UF doesn't have much of an edge here with their kicker Evan McPherson. Last year he was 17/19 on FG's, and 50/50 on XP's.
- I'd need another thread to do a full analysis of both coaching staffs. At HC, Mullen obviously has an advantage over Manny being that he's been an HC for the better part of a decade. Mullen though has severely underperformed in many high stakes/ranked games, and his teams always regress after a good year. He's a solid coach, but not a world beater. He's been outcoached by guys that Manny will be better than. Our staff needs to figure out how it's going to gel, with UF's staff having coached together over the past season.
