MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread(Its still personal)

[PhenomCane]

Before they were Bally Sports, they were Sports Channel Florida and Sunshine Network. I think we've had a longtime deal to work with those regional sports networks, but it has gotten out of hand lately.

The deal is actually more sinister than that. This is a legacy of Swofford's sweetheart side deal with Raycom to keep his son employed.

2010 the ACC signs an 16 year exclusive TV rights deal with Disney, but as a "sweetener" for that deal Swofford makes Disney sell Tier 2/3 games to Raycom. Because of this "sweetener" the TV deal is less AAV per school than the SEC and Big Ten.
Raycom breaks it into 2 packages: The syndicated "ACC Network" package of football and basketball games that they sell to OTA TV stations across the country and the RSN package (which includes football, basketball, baseball and parts of the tourneys) they sell to the regional sports networks. This deal expires in 2026-27. ACC adds Pitt and Syracuse.

2012 Maryland leaves the ACC for the Big Ten. Rumors swirling that Clemson and FSU are also unhappy and looking to leave. Initial GoR gets implemented with 2026/27 expiration date. ACC adds Louisville to replace Maryland.

2013 Disney announces it's launching the SEC Network in time for the 2014 season. SEC Network gets full distribution in 2014.

2016 the ACC wants Disney to give them a TV network like the SEC Network and Big Ten Network (61% Fox/39% Big Ten ownership). Disney says, OK but if we're putting up 100% of the money, we need guarantees the ACC will remain together for 20 years, plus we have to buy back the TV rights we sold to Raycom so the network has enough programming. ACC/Disney agree to a 10-year contract extension. GoR gets extended to 2036 to coincide with the Disney contract expiring. Disney buys TV rights back from Raycom for more than what they sold it to them for. ACC Network doesn't get full distribution until 2021.

2019 ACC Network goes live, but half the conference tournament games are still on RSNs. ACC coaches make noise about this because pretty much zero hotels carry any of the RSNs in the cities hosting their conference tournaments.

2020 Disney locks up 100% the SEC from 2024 until 2034 for an order of magnitude higher AAV per school than the ACC.

2022 Disney goes back to Raycom to buy back conference tourney rights. Again for more than what they sold them for to Raycom. Big Ten signs new TV deal with NBC, CBS and Fox for a higher AAV per school than the SEC. Big XII signs a new TV deal with Fox and ESPN for a "higher" AAV per school than the ACC (higher if you don't count the escalator clauses and the ACC Network revenue after the last vestiges of the Raycom deal expires in 2026/27). FSU AD begins posturing publicly. Each of the other power conferences now have more lucrative TV deals that expire before the ACC's TV deal expires.

2023 Diamond Sports (RSN parent company) files for bankruptcy. Even if they stop broadcasting their ACC TV package, it won't revert back to Disney or the ACC. It reverts back to Raycom who can resell it to whoever they want.

Maryland did the right thing when they got out in 2012.

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

NC State and VT could fit in the SEC. I could see it though the VT student body is actually comprised of a lot of future engineers and people in the health sciences, a lot of their townie fans are straight bottom of the barrel hillbillies and I kid you not.

Actually, as I know you’ve been to the NASCAR race at Bristol, I’m sure you know.

They could fit culturally, but I don't think either bring enough of an economic benefit for the SEC to want to carve out a slice of the pie for them. Both to the Big 12 would be my guess.

 

[TI_Inspire]

Part of what makes the SEC great — and there is a lot if we're being honest — is the (often accurate) characterizations of fans and especially alumni from the different schools.

The yin and yang of UVA and VT and UNC and NC State would definitely add to that mix.

If we got invited to the SEC along with FSU, it would add that our whole "Big 3" triangle dynamic to the conference.

Frankly, it would be great

Imagine having yearly conference rivalry games against FSU and UF in the SEC. That would be great for the program for sure.

 

[ironarrow97]

TIFWIW

 

[JD08]

NC State and VT could fit in the SEC. I could see it though the VT student body is actually comprised of a lot of future engineers and people in the health sciences, a lot of their townie fans are straight bottom of the barrel hillbillies and I kid you not.

Actually, as I know you’ve been to the NASCAR race at Bristol, I’m sure you know.

I got a **** fine sandwich right by the VT campus last year, so that's a plus.

I also knew an engineer who went to VT and spoke highly of it.

 

[Ispyin]

That's how I feel about you and English, though.

 

[RVACane]

They could fit culturally, but I don't think either bring enough of an economic benefit for the SEC to want to carve out a slice of the pie for them. Both to the Big 12 would be my guess.

Which is still a lot better than where they’re at now

 

[3FW]

One thing to watch. The top 5 brands and not close are Miami, FSU, Clemson, UNC and VA. Problem the latter two have is they can’t move without NC ST and VT.

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

Which is still a lot better than where they’re at now

That's why this will all happen. There aren't enough desirable SEC/B1G worthy teams to break it up. The Big 12 worthy teams need to be convinced that the ACC is a sinking ship and the Big 12 is the best life raft they are going to see, ever, for us to get there. Doesn't seem like a hard sell to me, which is why all this seems pretty believable and probable right now.

 

[kccanefan]

TIFWIW

Louisville would be a perfect fit for the Big 12. Gives them a Big Metro city TV market.

I could see the following going to the Big 12

Syracuse - NY Market, Basketball
Louisville - Decent Size Market, Football and Basketball
NC State - Gets them into North Carolina TV market
Pitt - Decent Size Market, Football
GT - Atlanta TV Market
Duke - Along lines of TCU private school. Basketball Blueblood

 

[Rickd]

TIFWIW

Would be great for recruiting if realignment commitments could be agreed to prior to this season and an actual timetable for implementation established (2025 season). Obviously there has been a lot of work going on behind the scenes to get to the point we are at today.

 

[Angry Ibis]

I got a **** fine sandwich right by the VT campus last year, so that's a plus.

I also knew an engineer who went to VT and spoke highly of it.

Of the sandwich?

Delicious

 

[Ispyin]

Are you of the belief that decisions are made regarding conf realignment prior to the 2023 football season?

These things are always crazy but I think it’s possible. It’s 3d chess. But here is just one example on a lower level. SMU - costs them $17 mil I believe to go to pac 12 before July 1 and 3x that after. If you don’t see them gone by that date it’s a good sign that pac12 is dying faster. I only put that in as I’m theory there is a world where pac 12 and big 12 are trying to reign for third, though I think big 12 has already screwed them. That’s just one set of bottom up dominos vs top down dominos in play.

there will be denials, nothing in writing, but anyone thinking that schools like Miami and fsu and Clemson don’t have an idea of landing spots is delusional. Wild card as always is Notre Dame and if they decided to go conference or not, which in every scenario (big ten/sec going to 20 or 24 - ans 22 is not an option btw) kicks one team out that could land, but it’s not going to hit the Miami fsu Clemson unc and likely uva in any way.

people keep saying acc isn’t going to see teams go to big 12. That’s just wrong if acc implodes which it’s going to at some point.

Personally think we are in endgame now, it’s hard to go back to being nice for those schools in the ACC.

And the carriage fees are more important for these networks than people are thinking. 1 million more homes for the BIG10 network would gain an additional $18 mil a year for the league. Plus advertising dollars going up proportionally. I’m not saying they would get that many new households- depends on if they get it as part of tiers or as a separate have to ask for it service. Could be a lot lower or substantially higher.

 

[TheOriginalCane]

The deal is actually more sinister than that. This is a legacy of Swofford's sweetheart side deal with Raycom to keep his son employed.

2010 the ACC signs an 16 year exclusive TV rights deal with Disney, but as a "sweetener" for that deal Swofford makes Disney sell Tier 2/3 games to Raycom. Because of this "sweetener" the TV deal is less AAV per school than the SEC and Big Ten.
Raycom breaks it into 2 packages: The syndicated "ACC Network" package of football and basketball games that they sell to OTA TV stations across the country and the RSN package (which includes football, basketball, baseball and parts of the tourneys) they sell to the regional sports networks. This deal expires in 2026-27. ACC adds Pitt and Syracuse.

2012 Maryland leaves the ACC for the Big Ten. Rumors swirling that Clemson and FSU are also unhappy and looking to leave. Initial GoR gets implemented with 2026/27 expiration date. ACC adds Louisville to replace Maryland.

2013 Disney announces it's launching the SEC Network in time for the 2014 season. SEC Network gets full distribution in 2014.

2016 the ACC wants Disney to give them a TV network like the SEC Network and Big Ten Network (61% Fox/39% Big Ten ownership). Disney says, OK but if we're putting up 100% of the money, we need guarantees the ACC will remain together for 20 years, plus we have to buy back the TV rights we sold to Raycom so the network has enough programming. ACC/Disney agree to a 10-year contract extension. GoR gets extended to 2036 to coincide with the Disney contract expiring. Disney buys TV rights back from Raycom for more than what they sold it to them for. ACC Network doesn't get full distribution until 2021.

2019 ACC Network goes live, but half the conference tournament games are still on RSNs. ACC coaches make noise about this because pretty much zero hotels carry any of the RSNs in the cities hosting their conference tournaments.

2020 Disney locks up 100% the SEC from 2024 until 2034 for an order of magnitude higher AAV per school than the ACC.

2022 Disney goes back to Raycom to buy back conference tourney rights. Again for more than what they sold them for to Raycom. Big Ten signs new TV deal with NBC, CBS and Fox for a higher AAV per school than the SEC. Big XII signs a new TV deal with Fox and ESPN for a "higher" AAV per school than the ACC (higher if you don't count the escalator clauses and the ACC Network revenue after the last vestiges of the Raycom deal expires in 2026/27). FSU AD begins posturing publicly. Each of the other power conferences now have more lucrative TV deals that expire before the ACC's TV deal expires.

2023 Diamond Sports (RSN parent company) files for bankruptcy. Even if they stop broadcasting their ACC TV package, it won't revert back to Disney or the ACC. It reverts back to Raycom who can resell it to whoever they want.

Maryland did the right thing when they got out in 2012.

Long...but accurate...

 

[OriginalCanesCanesCanes]

If I were to add anything additional, maybe being located in the most fertile recruiting ground in the country as an additional plus for Miami. More surprising to me is that both the Tampa and Orlando tv markets are bigger than Miami-FLL

There’s 1 million different ways to look at data, for my business I look at MSA. South Florida is in the top 10 nationally, and of the top 10 national MSA’s, there are at least three or four, like the LA area, that are not really big college football areas.

 

[Ispyin]

One thing to watch. The top 5 brands and not close are Miami, FSU, Clemson, UNC and VA. Problem the latter two have is they can’t move without NC ST and VT.

That’s what Cal thought about UCLA

thats what Washington st thinks about washington
and Oregon state thinks about Oregon

and they’re all wrong.

money talks and long as those schools (tech and nc st) are better off financially than the acc in a landing spot and the schools maintain their rivalries in all sports, 2023 would require them to allow the move.

it’s math- if uva and tech are both getting $42 mil a year in acc contract, but uva alone can get $80m from big ten, and tech somehow didn’t get into sec or big 10 and landed in big 12 which is expected to be about $50m in distro revenue in 2025, it’s a net gain for the state of almost $50M.

and uva has more people in the statehouse

 

[Alex Del Piero]

IF they have really 8 teams ready to leave we are closer to the end of the ACC than many people thought.

 

[PhenomCane]

That’s what Cal thought about UCLA

thats what Washington st thinks about washington
and Oregon state thinks about Oregon

and they’re all wrong.

money talks and long as those schools (tech and nc st) are better off financially than the acc in a landing spot and the schools maintain their rivalries in all sports, 2023 would require them to allow the move.

it’s math- if uva and tech are both getting $42 mil a year in acc contract, but uva alone can get $80m from big ten, and tech somehow didn’t get into sec or big 10 and landed in big 12 which is expected to be about $50m in distro revenue in 2025, it’s a net gain for the state of almost $50M.

and uva has more people in the statehouse

Texas, Oklahoma, USC and UCLA all moved in silence. Nothing leaked until it was already a done deal.
Leaks was how VT got included in the first ACC expansion over Syracuse.

 

[Rickd]

IF they have really 8 teams ready to leave we are closer to the end of the ACC than many people thought.

1. Clemson
2. Miami
3. FSU
4. UNC
5. UVA
6. DUKE
7. ND
8. Louisville

If the Big 12 is actually offering Louisville, I would expect that Pitt, possibly Syracuse and Boston College would be a take. This group could be getting this put together before the season begins for commitments and setting a date ... 2025 for implementation.

 

[Alex Del Piero]

1. Clemson
2. Miami
3. FSU
4. UNC
5. UVA
6. DUKE
7. ND
8. Louisville

If the Big 12 is actually offering Louisville, I would expect that Pitt, possibly Syracuse and Boston College would be a take. This group could be getting this put together before the season begins for commitments and setting a date ... 2025 for implementation.

According to yesterday's reports, Clemson, Miami, Florida State, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Virginia and Virginia Tech are the 7 that are willing to leave right now.

It looks like Louisville joined the group and that makes it 8.

I would imagine everyone of them has already a landing spot locked in.