MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread(Its still personal)

[jed2410]

ACC mailbag: Ramifications of potential Clemson, FSU departure plus North Carolina politics

Is there a competitive advantage to Clemson's approach to the portal? How many ACC teams will make the 2024 College Football Playoff?

theathletic.com

"Which ACC teams will be part of the Super League? We will only have 32 teams within three years. — Ursula D.

Clemson, the league’s best football power of the last decade, has to be in. Same for Florida State, with its historic and recent football success. Then there’s North Carolina, which has the most attractive national brand in the ACC and — maybe more importantly — would give this hypothetical Super League a footing in a state in which it currently does not.

And I’m just gonna say those three. Controversial? Maybe. But if FSU and Florida are already both in, what incentive does the Super League have to add a third (private) program from the same state? One that hasn’t in any way matched the level of success of the other two in the last two decades? You’ve also got to figure that the SEC and Big Ten are contributing anywhere from 20 to 30 of those teams, so there’s only so much room. — Marks"

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This article is nothing more than a Clemson FSU slobfest.

I hope they remembered to wipe off their chins

 

[passitback]

Any good news for us, or is this thread still about the great fortunes of the Noles?

 

[Handsome Squidbum]

This article is nothing more than a Clemson FSU slobfest.

I hope they remembered to wipe off their chins

True, but it also touches on some more practical points that others were making about carriage fees. If what this random internet poster says is true, it's surprising how much more money the networks got just as a result of adding the two California teams.

"When USC/UCLA join the Big Ten, the carriage fee for every TV subscriber in CA for the Big Ten Network will increase from 10 cents per month to $1.50 per month. With millions of cable subscribers in California... that's a lot of new money! Adding FSU and Clemson doesn't allow Disney to charge more for the SEC Network in FL or SC. But adding UNC and UVA allows Disney to charge more for the SEC-N in both states. This is not 100% driven by carriage fees as the realignments a decade ago, but it is a major factor. And this is the reason why the SEC members want to add UNC and UVA - to get into new states. "

It's about carriage fees. | TheSabre.com

When USC/UCLA join the Big Ten, the carriage fee for every TV subscriber in CA for the Big Ten Network will increase from 10 cents per month to $1.50 per month. With millions of cable subscribers in California... that's a lot of new money! Adding FSU and Clemson doesn't allow Disney to charge...

virginia.sportswar.com

So that squares with what some are saying here about Clemson-FSU to the B1G. Those teams going to the SEC doesn't really make Disney any new money. But if the B1G gets into Florida and the Carolinas, that's a MASSIVE payout. It also makes the discussion around UVA to the SEC make more sense. They are clearly not a more desirable team than Miami, but it would allow ESPN increase prices for subscribers in the Virginia/DC/Maryland area. And that also makes sense for a UNC-UVA pairing- both are large markets that gives ESPN the ability to jack up prices 1000% .

 

[mcnaire2004]

True, but it also touches on some more practical points that others were making about carriage fees. If what this random internet poster says is true, it's surprising how much more money the networks got just as a result of adding the two California teams.

"When USC/UCLA join the Big Ten, the carriage fee for every TV subscriber in CA for the Big Ten Network will increase from 10 cents per month to $1.50 per month. With millions of cable subscribers in California... that's a lot of new money! Adding FSU and Clemson doesn't allow Disney to charge more for the SEC Network in FL or SC. But adding UNC and UVA allows Disney to charge more for the SEC-N in both states. This is not 100% driven by carriage fees as the realignments a decade ago, but it is a major factor. And this is the reason why the SEC members want to add UNC and UVA - to get into new states. "

It's about carriage fees. | TheSabre.com

When USC/UCLA join the Big Ten, the carriage fee for every TV subscriber in CA for the Big Ten Network will increase from 10 cents per month to $1.50 per month. With millions of cable subscribers in California... that's a lot of new money! Adding FSU and Clemson doesn't allow Disney to charge...

virginia.sportswar.com

So that squares with what some are saying here about Clemson-FSU to the B1G. Those teams going to the SEC doesn't really make Disney any new money. But if the B1G gets into Florida and the Carolinas, that's a MASSIVE payout. It also makes the discussion around UVA to the SEC make more sense. They are clearly not a more desirable team than Miami, but it would allow ESPN increase prices for subscribers in the Virginia/DC/Maryland area. And that also makes sense for a UNC-UVA pairing- both are large markets that gives ESPN the ability to jack up prices 1000% .

I think I learned something.

 

[USNAVYCANE]

This would be awful

 

[USNAVYCANE]

 

[Rickd]

True, but it also touches on some more practical points that others were making about carriage fees. If what this random internet poster says is true, it's surprising how much more money the networks got just as a result of adding the two California teams.

"When USC/UCLA join the Big Ten, the carriage fee for every TV subscriber in CA for the Big Ten Network will increase from 10 cents per month to $1.50 per month. With millions of cable subscribers in California... that's a lot of new money! Adding FSU and Clemson doesn't allow Disney to charge more for the SEC Network in FL or SC. But adding UNC and UVA allows Disney to charge more for the SEC-N in both states. This is not 100% driven by carriage fees as the realignments a decade ago, but it is a major factor. And this is the reason why the SEC members want to add UNC and UVA - to get into new states. "

It's about carriage fees. | TheSabre.com

When USC/UCLA join the Big Ten, the carriage fee for every TV subscriber in CA for the Big Ten Network will increase from 10 cents per month to $1.50 per month. With millions of cable subscribers in California... that's a lot of new money! Adding FSU and Clemson doesn't allow Disney to charge...

virginia.sportswar.com

So that squares with what some are saying here about Clemson-FSU to the B1G. Those teams going to the SEC doesn't really make Disney any new money. But if the B1G gets into Florida and the Carolinas, that's a MASSIVE payout. It also makes the discussion around UVA to the SEC make more sense. They are clearly not a more desirable team than Miami, but it would allow ESPN increase prices for subscribers in the Virginia/DC/Maryland area. And that also makes sense for a UNC-UVA pairing- both are large markets that gives ESPN the ability to jack up prices 1000% .

And the carriage fee issue is why a pairing of FSU / Clemson brings a lot more $$$ to FOX / BIG than FSU / Miami. It has been stated that "Miami is dilutive", no incremental carriage fees. Lot of factors being evaluated.

 

[Imukat]

True, but it also touches on some more practical points that others were making about carriage fees. If what this random internet poster says is true, it's surprising how much more money the networks got just as a result of adding the two California teams.

"When USC/UCLA join the Big Ten, the carriage fee for every TV subscriber in CA for the Big Ten Network will increase from 10 cents per month to $1.50 per month. With millions of cable subscribers in California... that's a lot of new money! Adding FSU and Clemson doesn't allow Disney to charge more for the SEC Network in FL or SC. But adding UNC and UVA allows Disney to charge more for the SEC-N in both states. This is not 100% driven by carriage fees as the realignments a decade ago, but it is a major factor. And this is the reason why the SEC members want to add UNC and UVA - to get into new states. "

It's about carriage fees. | TheSabre.com

When USC/UCLA join the Big Ten, the carriage fee for every TV subscriber in CA for the Big Ten Network will increase from 10 cents per month to $1.50 per month. With millions of cable subscribers in California... that's a lot of new money! Adding FSU and Clemson doesn't allow Disney to charge...

virginia.sportswar.com

So that squares with what some are saying here about Clemson-FSU to the B1G. Those teams going to the SEC doesn't really make Disney any new money. But if the B1G gets into Florida and the Carolinas, that's a MASSIVE payout. It also makes the discussion around UVA to the SEC make more sense. They are clearly not a more desirable team than Miami, but it would allow ESPN increase prices for subscribers in the Virginia/DC/Maryland area. And that also makes sense for a UNC-UVA pairing- both are large markets that gives ESPN the ability to jack up prices 1000% .

Is the money based on the entire state or DMA? For example, Miami is in the top 20 but Tallahassee is in the 100s. By DMA, FSU isn't worth much compared to Miami.

 

[FL Cane]

This would be awful

The article in that tweet actually predicts that nothing will happen with the ACC expansion wise, just more litigation. On the Big 10, it later talks about us being in the mix.

 

[Handsome Squidbum]

Is the money based on the entire state or DMA? For example, Miami is in the top 20 but Tallahassee is in the 100s. By DMA, FSU isn't worth much compared to Miami.

It looks like it is based on the entire state.

"The ACC credited a large portion of the 6.7% increase in revenue between 2021 and 2022 to the ACC Network finally gaining carriage on every major cable outlet. Charter is the main cable provider in Orlando, Tampa, Charlotte, New York City, and a host of smaller markets in the ACC footprint. The ACC Network charges a subscriber fee of $1.30 a month if you are considered “in-conference” compared to 25 cents a month if you are “out-of-conference.” If there is an ACC school in a state the entire state is considered “in-conference”, as confirmed by former ESPN President John Skipper. Cable subscribers in Florida who receive ACC Network pay $1.30 a month regardless of whether they’re in Tallahassee, Miami, Jacksonville, or Orlando. Similarly, cable subscribers in New York City pay $1.30 a month for the ACC Network despite Syracuse being 4 hours away. The longer ACC Network remains dark in those markets, the more likely it is that every school in the conference will end up taking a significant revenue hit. New York City alone has 800,000 Charter subscribers and would account for over $10 million a year in lost subscriber revenue for the ACC Network.

Charter’s dispute with ESPN adds potential layer of uncertainty to college sports earnings

Disney owned channels such as ESPN and ACC Network have been off Spectrum for over a week. How will this impact Florida State and the ACC?

www.tomahawknation.com

So if that works for ESPN it probably works for Fox Sports. If the B1G added FSU, then everyone in the state of Florida who gets the B1G network would pay the same carriage fees, and that could amount to billions. That example in my previous post of everyone in California with the B1G network now having to pay more than 10x the amount is crazy.

IMO, this is not good news for UM.

 

[Gocanes1990]

It looks like it is based on the entire state.

"The ACC credited a large portion of the 6.7% increase in revenue between 2021 and 2022 to the ACC Network finally gaining carriage on every major cable outlet. Charter is the main cable provider in Orlando, Tampa, Charlotte, New York City, and a host of smaller markets in the ACC footprint. The ACC Network charges a subscriber fee of $1.30 a month if you are considered “in-conference” compared to 25 cents a month if you are “out-of-conference.” If there is an ACC school in a state the entire state is considered “in-conference”, as confirmed by former ESPN President John Skipper. Cable subscribers in Florida who receive ACC Network pay $1.30 a month regardless of whether they’re in Tallahassee, Miami, Jacksonville, or Orlando. Similarly, cable subscribers in New York City pay $1.30 a month for the ACC Network despite Syracuse being 4 hours away. The longer ACC Network remains dark in those markets, the more likely it is that every school in the conference will end up taking a significant revenue hit. New York City alone has 800,000 Charter subscribers and would account for over $10 million a year in lost subscriber revenue for the ACC Network.

Charter’s dispute with ESPN adds potential layer of uncertainty to college sports earnings

Disney owned channels such as ESPN and ACC Network have been off Spectrum for over a week. How will this impact Florida State and the ACC?

www.tomahawknation.com

So if that works for ESPN it probably works for Fox Sports. If the B1G added FSU, then everyone in the state of Florida who gets the B1G network would pay the same carriage fees, and that could amount to billions. That example in my previous post of everyone in California with the B1G network now having to pay more than 10x the amount is crazy.

IMO, this is not good news for UM.

I wil stick with what I was told. Miami to the BIG, 2026-2027. All in all DRAD has been a disaster, hope he pulls this off. Don’t forget we have big TV people on BOT

 

[PhenomCane]

I wil stick with what I was told. Miami to the BIG, 2026-2027. All in all DRAD has been a disaster, hope he pulls this off. Don’t forget we have big TV people on BOT

Also, paid live-tv subscribers have been steadily dropping every year by the millions. This isn't the boon some people are making it out to be, and live streamers like Fubo and YouTube TV aren't making up the shortfall.

 

[Rickd]

Is the money based on the entire state or DMA? For example, Miami is in the top 20 but Tallahassee is in the 100s. By DMA, FSU isn't worth much compared to Miami.

Carriage fees are BY STATE. Therefore if the B10 takes FSU they get the STATE OF FLORIDA CARRIAGE FEES and there are no incremental carriage fees for adding Miami.

 

[PhenomCane]

Carriage fees are BY STATE. Therefore if the B10 takes FSU they get the STATE OF FLORIDA CARRIAGE FEES and there are no incremental carriage fees for adding Miami.

While true, that wasn't my point. The carriage fee pie is getting smaller every quarter. If trends continue, the first quarter any state gets added to the "max carriage fee" billing plan will also be the quarter that generates the most revenue for that channel in that state.

Eventually, in an effort to reduce cord-cutting rates, providers are going to push these channels to a higher-tier package, where those that want the channel will opt-in. You're going to see more disputes like Spectrum/Disney last fall where channels go dark, not less.

 

[Rickd]

While true, that wasn't my point. The carriage fee pie is getting smaller every quarter. If trends continue, the first quarter any state gets added to the "max carriage fee" billing plan will also be the quarter that generates the most revenue for that channel in that state.

Eventually, in an effort to reduce cord-cutting rates, providers are going to push these channels to a higher-tier package, where those that want the channel will opt-in. You're going to see more disputes like Spectrum/Disney last fall where channels go dark, not less.

We all know that things are changing in the cable fee structures and that will continue. However the "realignment" issues that we are discussing ... the next wave of P2 expansion .... is HAPPENING NOW ... we will see it over the next 2 years most likely. Maybe this is only 4 teams ... 2 to the B10 and 2 to the SEC. Carriage fees factor into the decision making in a major manner. To the extent that rather than taking a second Florida team that draws a lot of viewer eyeballs (Miami) the B10 might just opt to add VIRGINIA, who doesn't draw eyeballs, but adds a NEW STATE for those carriage fees. There has even been talk of Texas A&M going to the B10. We are all just reading the tea leaves and looking for clues. But the old "conference fit" guidelines no longer rule.

 

[Angry Ibis]

Also, paid live-tv subscribers have been steadily dropping every year by the millions. This isn't the boon some people are making it out to be, and live streamers like Fubo and YouTube TV aren't making up the shortfall.

FUBAR TV sounds about right for us…

 

[trolldawg]

I wil stick with what I was told. Miami to the BIG, 2026-2027. All in all DRAD has been a disaster, hope he pulls this off. Don’t forget we have big TV people on BOT

Any indication if as a full share or a half share by any chance?

 

[calinative umstudent]

Any indication if as a full share or a half share by any chance?

That would probably depend how we get out of ACC and if to what level the GOR is enforceable. But like if you asked me would I take 50-75% pay B10 until 2030 over ACC, answer is clear yes - even if we paid like $100M to exit ACC. It's probably still net positive. So full share imo isn't like an absolute neccessity. Especially the cheaper it is for us to get out of ACC.

 

[TheOriginalCane]

Carriage fees are BY STATE. Therefore if the B10 takes FSU they get the STATE OF FLORIDA CARRIAGE FEES and there are no incremental carriage fees for adding Miami.

Yes. I've been talking about the Big 10 carriage fees bump FOR YEARS.

However.

Unless the argument is made that the Big 10 will take FSU, GaTech, Clemson, and UNC (all "new" states), then they will not go 4-for-4 on carriage fee bumps.

Or, to put it another way...the overall adoption you would get from taking TWO teams in the #3 population state...even though "one" gives you the carriage fee bump while the other "does not"...may very well exceed the "carriage fee bump" that you get for a state such as South Carolina.

Florida's population is 23 million.

South Carolina's population is 5.5 million.

So you would need a MASSIVE carriage fee bump for "South Carolina" to be the superior choice to ABSOLUTELY LOCKING DOWN FLORIDA by taking F$U (for the north) and Miami (for the south).

That can NOT be overlooked.

By taking Miami and F$U you get the (a) carriage fee bump (with only taking one, sure), plus the (b) massive market size of Florida. Together, I think those two factors can equal, if not absolutely exceed, the cash that Clemson brings to the table via higher SC carriage fees.

It's nothing personal, just math.

 

[Tru C]

Ay man, mods need to put this thread out of its misery. By the time Miami goes anywhere, this **** gonna be 5,000 pages long and so listen mang…..we just cant have that.