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Bama: would you take +18?

HighSeas said:
18 does seem like a lot but Bryce Young is an unknown. He could be pinpoint accurate and make Miami's front look silly with his mobility, keeping plays and drives alive. Bama doesn't beat themselves no matter who is playing or coaching.

Why would it be a good bet? Bama is weaker at the skill positions than usual. The RB Robinson is a plodding JAG and doesn't scare me unless he gets a full head of steam on Miami's shaky tackling DBs. Metchie is a stud but he doesn't win the ball way Smith+Waddle did, and beyond him they have Billingsley and a bunch of unprovens. On defense they return a lot of guys but absent a dominant pass rusher or lockdown DBs they should be vulnerable to the pass. I'm a lot more optimistic about King as a player and with his health specifically than it seems most of you are. Bama has been lit up by spread offenses early in the season before.
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You question the kids ability to hand the ball off? Alabama is going to have no reason to pass. They will run behind their tackles all day long while our DEs over pursue every play. The question to me is do we feel like our LBs can handle a bruising NFL RB with TEs in play.
 
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clg003 said:
You question the kids ability to hand the ball off? Alabama is going to have no reason to pass. They will run behind their tackles all day long while our DEs over pursue every play. The question to me is do we feel like our LBs can handle a bruising NFL RB with TEs in play.
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It’s not really a question to you is it.
 
raytiller said:
if you think were better than the 09 VT team take the points if not take the safe bet and unfortunately go with saban against the canes.
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I was looking for the article where someone made a table that listed the opponents, results and spread for each game. Bama not only beat the spread but crushed it in most cases. The table was even more informative as it showed that most of those teams were not scrubs but legit ranked teams.
 
BoxingRobes said:
If you are putting real money on Miami...why don't you just wipe your *** with the money instead?

www.al.com

Nick Saban has made Bama bettors rich in season openers

Alabama is 12-1 against the spread in season openers since hiring Nick Saban in 2007. Bettors who have risked $1,000 per game have made nearly $10,000 in profits.
www.al.com www.al.com
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I would argue..compare our team to the past season opener opponents hes faced. That stat is a little misleading unless we know all of the 12 opponents and see how we stack up.
 
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I'm not touching it too many variables for a season opener but if I'm being forced I'm taking Bama.

They're bigger, faster, stronger, and better coached. You're really betting on if Saban wants to make it a blowout or not.
 
BoxingRobes said:
Let me be your fidoucheiary on matters involving your money right now, brothers.

If you are thinking about putting money on the Miami Hurricanes against the Alabama Crimson Tide...

NO.
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Well, let me play Devils advocate..if we lose by more than 18 points (especially if the line increases), then I will lower my expectations for the season from 10-2/11-1 to 9-3/10-2 at best which means we probably didnt win the ACC Coastal with that record....We went 9-2 last year and that wasnt enough to win the Coastal.

Bama lost some talent and this is Game 1..with the talent we have coming back and a top 10 QB in the country if we cant keep it under 18 points... the season is absolutely up in the air moving forward and that includes Michigan State.
 
scrantoncane said:
Good analysis, and I am pretty much in agreement. I guess I'm just leaning toward our "ifs" happening rather than theirs, mainly because of returning production. But yes, it is Manny v. Saban, and they are loaded with pro talent. Could be a blowout for sure.
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I hate to say it but imo the odds of a blow out are better than a Miami win. We may be returning a lot but we got boat raced by the one good team we played last year. Sucks because this game is huge when it comes to finding out where we are and what we have. Are we ready to compete with the big boys are we gonna keep barely beating bad ACC teams.
 
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Jassid82 said:
Well, let me play Devils advocate..if we lose by more than 18 points (especially if the line increases), then I will lower my expectations for the season from 10-2/11-1 to 9-3/10-2 at best which means we probably didnt win the ACC Coastal with that record....We went 9-2 last year and that wasnt enough to win the Coastal.

Bama lost some talent and this is Game 1..with the talent we have coming back and a top 10 QB in the country if we cant keep it under 18 points... the season is absolutely up in the air moving forward and that includes Michigan State.
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Alabama's last game was the National Championship which they won 52-24!

Did Alabama lose some players? Yes. Have they consistently reloaded for ~a decade now? Yes. Was last year's OSU overrated? Maybe. Was last year's OSU better than Miami will be this year? Likely. Has Alabama covered the spread in openers every time? No, not every time, but almost every time.

Look, I think Miami will be better this year than last and of course there is always a puncher's chance we win a game like this, but why set yourself up for double the disappointment when Miami likely loses by 20+?
 
I would enjoy nothing more than UM winning the game and can come up with reasons as to why UM has a shot of winning the game (not just covering the spread), starting with Bama's heavy personnel losses (including a Heisman Trophy winner, their starting QB, a great RB, other great receivers, the best CB in the country, new OC, new OL coach (albeit both were NFL head coaches), Miami returning a lot of starters and hopefully, D'Eriq King playing, but I always come back to one important point: Manny Diaz is our Head Coach. I just can't see any way Manny beats Nick Saban, and I agree with those who think that Saban will keep his foot on the gas in order to put on a show for recruits, especially South Florida recruits. I would have to give the points.
 
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Below is the breakdown of Alabama under Saban in these "neutral site" Kickoff Classic games. 10-0 with the average score being 38-13.

'08 No. 9 Clemson 34-10
'09 No. 7 Virginia Tech 34-24
'12 No. 8 Michigan 41-14
'13 UR Virginia Tech 35-10
'14 UR West Virginia 33-23
'15 No. 20 Wisconsin 35-17
'16 No. 20 USC 52-6
'17 No. 3 Florida State 24-7
'18 UR Louisville 51-14
'19 UR Duke 42-3
 
Shogungts said:
Alabama's last game was the National Championship which they won 52-24!

Did Alabama lose some players? Yes. Have they consistently reloaded for ~a decade now? Yes. Was last year's OSU overrated? Maybe. Was last year's OSU better than Miami will be this year? Likely. Has Alabama covered the spread in openers every time? No, not every time, but almost every time.

Look, I think Miami will be better this year than last and of course there is always a puncher's chance we win a game like this, but why set yourself up for double the disappointment when Miami likely loses by 20+?
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“Some players”
 
919cane said:
Below is the breakdown of Alabama under Saban in these "neutral site" Kickoff Classic games. 10-0 with the average score being 38-13.

'08 No. 9 Clemson 34-10
'09 No. 7 Virginia Tech 34-24
'12 No. 8 Michigan 41-14
'13 UR Virginia Tech 35-10
'14 UR West Virginia 33-23
'15 No. 20 Wisconsin 35-17
'16 No. 20 USC 52-6
'17 No. 3 Florida State 24-7
'18 UR Louisville 51-14
'19 UR Duke 42-3
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This goes to show you that even making this game “competitive” doesn’t reflect where you are as a program. All those programs who kept it close are still dog **** afterwards. Win this ******* game if you want it to be a program changer.
 
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