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Bama: would you take +18?

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TheProf said:
I don't feel comfortable with the line, but King likely not being 100% and potentially not playing at all makes the line make some sense. Add in the fact that the run defense was atrocious and Bama is setup to run the ball as well as anyone else.
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Legit concerns.

My instinct is that Saban will be more conservative then we are used to the past few seasons (since Bama has gone from a defensive team to an offensive team). The past few years, they have blown out teams in the first half (they covered the 1st half like every week for about 2 years, until the books finally adjusted to where if the line was -35 for the game, it'd be like -30 for the 1st half), then they take the air out of the ball in the second half.

They have a new QB and like 55% returning production. As you said, our run defense looks to be the area a team like Bama (big, talented OL) would look to expose, especially with a new, young QB. Running the ball means the clock runs, and a running clock gives less possessions to win by 19.

Now, even if this theory holds true, 2 things can ruin the bet: (1) we get gashed, like UNC, and they score at will, or (2) they get an early lead (their rush game, we turn it over, we can't score, whatever), and Saban turns it loose in the 2nd half to get his QB reps in a non-conference game against a quality opponent. Neither would surprise me in the slightest. And Saban likes to cover for the boosters.

Idk, I still think 18 is too many. There hasn't been any buyback yet, so I don't see any reason to bet it now. If the pros didn't take 18, then I think it is more likely that it'll move to 20 (ideally 21) before it goes back to 17. I'd love to get 20/21. 18 I am still on the fence.
 
cway313 said:
Seems like half the Bama team is S.FL recruits and we all know how they love an opportunity to sht on Miami. This is what has me concerned the most whenever S.FL players get an opportunity to play vs us they seem to ball out.
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doesn't matter. no way a team with that much new blood should beat us by 18+ game 1! can't happen.
 
scrantoncane said:
At what point do we say Nesta is overrated? He hasn't really done much of anything.

@DMoney where do you rank him as far as our tackles go (forget whether 1-tech or 3-tech, just overall)? What is the word on him?
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He's already over rated in terms of what his high school ranking was. However, that doesn't mean he's not a solid contributor to this team.
 
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Anything over 17 is where it becomes a hammer for me personally. Orange and green glasses off they won’t be as explosive this year on the offensive side of the ball. They’ll run the ball well but I expected to load up to keep them in long downs and distances and make their guys beat our secondary which is actually a major strength of ours. Offense wise we’re going to have to be aggressive early to keep them honest otherwise they’ll just T off on us all game. Need harley, rambo or Smith to get loose deep early, even if it’s incomplete it just shows that they can and it changes a lot for us. After that we need to run the ball well. 1st and 10 needs to be 2nd and 6 pretty routinely. All in all without keeping this long winded post going I think a spread of 18 is a favorable bet
 
scrantoncane said:
Ok, take off the orange and green glasses. I’ll leave it at that.

You taking the points? If so, kindly give a short breakdown as to why (and don’t just O/G glasses me and tell me how canes roll).

I haven’t bet it, but 18 seems like a lot with the Bama returning production being such an issue.

it opened around -17, but Circa opened -13.5 and it immediately got hit hard and moved to around -17. My guess is there’s lots of pros trying to middle that 14-17.

IDK, to me, 18 is a lot. I don’t wear the glasses. Bama has a new QB, OC, and basically all skill players. Yes, they are nasty athletes, but 18 is a lot IMO.

thoughts? Respectfully request that any response has an opinion to support the conclusion.
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The answer you're seeking is quite simple .

Time to move on ...OR... PUT YOUR $$$ DOWN

Talking sh%t from the sidelines is easy. So Less talk more betting.

These are good odds for Cane fans ...even if you hold Manny in lower regard than whale****.

I DO...

But 18pts is hard to pass on ANY P5 game
 
MovingZen said:
If we're taking the orange and green glasses off and you could get me to bet against my team, I'd take bama and the points easy right now. We may return a lot from last year but last years team got freight trained by the team that got freight trained by the team that got freight trained by bama. I just don't think we're on their level or even close yet. They out talent Miami at almost every position and they are built to dominate in the trenches and I'm pretty sure they're gonna do just that. King, I love the guy and what he brings but he's hurt and this will be the second year in a row with no spring practice for the King/Lash combo jam. I hope he comes into fall camp 110% because we'll need his play making ability and leadership badly to stay within 3 td's. The bottom line is we're looking to make a huge step up while hoping that they take a big step back. I'd have to bet big on Manny and I'm nowhere near ready to do that. He may be good at making adjustments but that just means he wasn't ready in the first place. For 15 years I keep looking for Miami to step up in a big game and out side of ND 17 they just haven't done it. bama has given up more than 20 points in their opener one time since 2010. I'll guess bama 45-17 right now.
If I were to bet this game it would be at the last minute and a full fall practice where King just balls out and I hear about 6/8 transferring because they'll never see the field again and the young receivers are dominating.
I'll take Miami in every game after bama.

Miami "if"
better receiver play
better dl play even after having two drafted in first and second round
way better lb play
Bolden returns to early season form
Mallory can step way up
way way better ol play
King is 100% and gets better at the deep ball

bama "if"
they can't replace what they lost
they aren't as dominate as they have been
the offensive coaching takes a big step back
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Good analysis, and I am pretty much in agreement. I guess I'm just leaning toward our "ifs" happening rather than theirs, mainly because of returning production. But yes, it is Manny v. Saban, and they are loaded with pro talent. Could be a blowout for sure.
 
scrantoncane said:
Ok, take off the orange and green glasses. I’ll leave it at that.

You taking the points? If so, kindly give a short breakdown as to why (and don’t just O/G glasses me and tell me how canes roll).

I haven’t bet it, but 18 seems like a lot with the Bama returning production being such an issue.

it opened around -17, but Circa opened -13.5 and it immediately got hit hard and moved to around -17. My guess is there’s lots of pros trying to middle that 14-17.

IDK, to me, 18 is a lot. I don’t wear the glasses. Bama has a new QB, OC, and basically all skill players. Yes, they are nasty athletes, but 18 is a lot IMO.

thoughts? Respectfully request that any response has an opinion to support the conclusion.
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if you think were better than the 09 VT team take the points if not take the safe bet and unfortunately go with saban against the canes.
 

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NJshoreCane said:
If CFB were plug and play every year, this would be an easy bet,
but there's too many unknowns on the Bama side other than the fact that they're loaded with talent.

Bama beat FSU in '17 on special teams and defense. FSU also had 3 turnovers.
The game will be "relatively" low scoring unless we give them the short field or get burned a few times over the top if their running game gets going.
For the purposes of this thread i'm thinking a game similar to the ND/Bama game last year, hopefully without the ugly start ND had.

We better show some balls.
Miami -17 and the Under.
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That FSU game has entered my mind several times. I haven't gone back to watch the highlights or read a recap, but I remember FSU being right there with them, and I think their starting QB got hurt in the 2nd half, which sealed it (it may have been too late to come back anyways, but I remember it being a game).
 
CashMoneyCane said:
Why is it likely that King is not 100% when all reports are to the contrary?

I get you don't want people to know if your QB is f*cked, but you probably also wouldn't consistently say "he's beating all his benchmarks and will be ready for the opener."
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Being on schedule with your rehab and being cleared to play does not automatically mean he will completely 100%. I won't be surprised if King gets the okay to start, but I won't expect him to be 100% if he does.

He'll likely have a brace on, be relatively limited in mobility, and simply not be the same caliber of player he was before the injury. It would take a few games into the season at least before he was at the point where he could move and be more like himself prior to the injury if he can even get back to that point.

I'm not saying he will be a crippled pocket passer now, but a lot of guys don't come back completely from this type of injury.
 
MainLineCane said:
The answer you're seeking is quite simple .

Time to move on ...OR... PUT YOUR $$$ DOWN

Talking sh%t from the sidelines is easy. So Less talk more betting.

These are good odds for Cane fans ...even if you hold Manny in lower regard than whale****.

I DO...

But 18pts is hard to pass on ANY P5 game
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1. Bet or move on is how you lose money. With most other teams, I bet using power ratings. With Miami, I have an in-depth knowledge of the team that allows me to break down matchups and anticipate scheme. I also seem to end up betting them every week regardless.

2. 18 is not too many in any P5 game. That is an absurd statement. I would research Bama's win margins vs P5 teams, but the notion is too absurd to even waste 5 min on that research.
 
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TheProf said:
Being on schedule with your rehab and being cleared to play does not automatically mean he will completely 100%. I won't be surprised if King gets the okay to start, but I won't expect him to be 100% if he does.

He'll likely have a brace on, be relatively limited in mobility, and simply not be the same caliber of player he was before the injury. It would take a few games into the season at least before he was at the point where he could move and be more like himself prior to the injury if he can even get back to that point.

I'm not saying he will be a crippled pocket passer now, but a lot of guys don't come back completely from this type of injury.
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The mental part is hard too.

I remember I broke my ankle playing basketball as a teenager. When I got the cast off (& even a few weeks/months after), I was reluctant to go hard on it... it was just a gut instinct telling me not to, even though I knew I was healed.

Obviously, King has access to doctors and trainers that I didn't. UM has one of the best medical schools/staff of any team in the country, which gives me some level of confidence. But I watched a clip of King thowing the other day that my man @k9cane posted on twitter, and it looked to me like he couldn't/wasn't driving off his back foot at all. Probably doctor's orders not to, but we are 6 weeks from game day and he still looks injured to me.
 
Our saving grace is this is the first game of the year and they are breaking in a new QB with very little experience. You cant just overlook that huge variable. He will be just as nervous as our guys will be. We have to take advantage of the time period it takes for him to settle down and get the jitters out.

Joaquin said it best (no Ed Reed speech intended) "Go out there and make it a game. Dont get phucking blown out by 35points! Get beat by 14 points and make it competitive throughout the whole game and that is a step forward for the program".

Facts here. (and to answer the question, I am taking whatever points they are giving for this game.)
 
Ok- I’m gonna be honest- I bet and day trade for a living. Im not touching this game. I have no feel for a week one game with a spread this wide. At first glance, I’d take Miami. 18 is a lot of points for a team that *should* be as good/talented as Miami is. This will be a no touch for me. However, there should be value in Miami because bama will always be the more bet on team, just based on who they are. I reallllly don’t like the fact that Miami will have a true freshman kicker too. That can be a huge momentum swing in a game
 
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18 does seem like a lot but Bryce Young is an unknown. He could be pinpoint accurate and make Miami's front look silly with his mobility, keeping plays and drives alive. Bama doesn't beat themselves no matter who is playing or coaching.

Why would it be a good bet? Bama is weaker at the skill positions than usual. The RB Robinson is a plodding JAG and doesn't scare me unless he gets a full head of steam on Miami's shaky tackling DBs. Metchie is a stud but he doesn't win the ball way Smith+Waddle did, and beyond him they have Billingsley and a bunch of unprovens. On defense they return a lot of guys but absent a dominant pass rusher or lockdown DBs they should be vulnerable to the pass. I'm a lot more optimistic about King as a player and with his health specifically than it seems most of you are. Bama has been lit up by spread offenses early in the season before.
 
scrantoncane said:
I don't believe in trends. Different players, different coaches. You can always find a trend to fit your narrative if you want to.
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lol believe in whatever you need smart money is rolling wit bama.... roll wit the canes in a solo bet give me bama in a parlay more likely to hit imo. I'm liking ND spread against fsu rn i gotta see any more favorable matchups i like for a good parlay on opening weekend
 
scrantoncane said:
At what point do we say Nesta is overrated? He hasn't really done much of anything.

@DMoney where do you rank him as far as our tackles go (forget whether 1-tech or 3-tech, just overall)? What is the word on him?
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But KrazyCane said he was the best DT in the country last year.
 
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