Bags arent the only problem, but they are a problem.
We’re garbage and the bag schools are paying big. That’s a recipe for disaster. We’re basically left with the guys who love this area and aren’t being paid by bag schools. The area is so rich that we should still be able to win the Coastal with those guys with good modern coaching.
But we are likely done as a national program as long as bag schools can cheat so blatantly. If we start winning 10 and the Coastal regularly we’ll get back in business with the 2nd tier guys that the bag schools aren’t paying.
This is a good summary and the point of D$'s original post. It's correct imo.
No, beating Alabama/Clemson and competing for NC's isn't on our horizon right now. Sucks to say it, but it's true.
The next Campbell's, Surtain's, Stevenson's, Bogle's, etc. aren't signing with UM either. Sucks to say that as well. But it's also true. The programs those kids are signing with, (a) pay them, and (b) win almost all their games and compete for NC's. That's a more attractive package than UM can offer right now.
That's the reality of the situation. And it's not going to be changing in the immediate near term.
Where does that leave us? As argued by D$ and Franchise above, we're still sitting in one of the most, if not THE most fertile recruiting areas in the US. SoFl is fertile grounds for the elite kids; e.g. the Bosa's, Jeudy's, Ridley's, Patrick Peterson's, etc., most of whom don't come to UM. SoFl is also home to the largest pool of really good players who exist at a strata below the elite, front running and bag-receiving kids. And it's this latter cohort of kids who should be forming the nucleus of our recruiting class each year, with some out of area kids sprinkled in, grad transfers (with whom we should be a very attractive option) and the handful of local elite kids who do want to sign with UM (the Silvera's, Richard's, Chad Thomas', etc.) notwithstanding the other stuff. If we do that, we're sitting with the 2nd/3rd best talent in the ACC just as has been the case since we joined the conference.
Since UM joined the ACC in 2004, a couple things have been true. One, the ACC regularly places 3-4 teams in the final top-20 ranking. Two, every single ACC team with three losses or fewer has always finished the year ranked in the top-20, and most years even 4 loss ACC teams finished with a top-20 ranking. Yet UM has seldom been among those ACC teams that finished the season ranked in the top-20.
Here's UM's ACC recruiting class rankings since joining the ACC:
As per the above UM has obviously recruited well enough and has been talented enough to finish each year as one of the 3-4 ACC teams ranked in the top-20. Yet a top-20 finish has been a rare occurrence for UM. This is the primary disconnect that has to be fixed; i.e. the disconnect between talent (even after losing the most elite SoFl recruits) and performance. No, we might not have the talent to finish in the top 1-10. But we absolutely have had the talent to finish somewhere in the top 10-20 each and every year by historical ACC final rankings metrics. The bar to finish ranked top-5/10 is quite high. The bar to finish in the top 10-20 isn't all that high. We have had the talent and should without question finish in the top 10-20 (or at least top 15-20) each and every year. So why hasn't that been the case?
The obvious answer is that we've had coaching that's been inferior to our talent. This is the only possible answer unless our recruiting rankings have been perennially over-valued, which by NFL draft metrics doesn't seem to have been the case.
So the bottom line for me is this. Sure, I'd love to see us signing the elite kids out of SoFl. But more importantly for right now, I'd like to see us with a coaching staff that is as good as the talent that they coach. On both sides of the ball. And at the same time.
This year's recruiting class looks like it's going to be very sub-par and the equivalent to 2011's class. But that's an aberration. Even with losing the Campbell, Surtain, Bogle, Stevenson type kids, we should be able to recruit the 2nd/3rd best classes in the ACC each year.
We seem to have a defensive coaching staff that's competent enough to coach our 2nd/3rd best ACC defensive talent to 2nd/3rd best defense results in the ACC each year since 2016. So what's missing is a coaching staff on the offensive side of the ball to coach our 2nd/3rd best offensive recruits to achieve 2nd/3rd best offensive results in the ACC. That would seem to be an attainable goal. This year, that would have prevented us from dropping games against UVA, BC, Duke and GT. In those losses we averaged 15 points per game. Is there anyone reading who doesn't think we have a talent advantage on offense sufficient to have put up more than 15 ppg against those squads. No we don't have Alabama, UGA, OSU, Clemson type talent. But scoring 15 ppg against UVA, BC, Duke and GT had zero to do with a talent deficiency.
UGA, Alabama, OSU bags and superior on-field results won't prevent us from hiring a staff competent enough to coach our 2nd/3rd best ACC talent to 2nd/3rd best ACC results. And even with the loss of the Campbell, Surtain, Bogle, Stevenson type kids to UGA, Alabama, OSU, we should still finish with the 2nd/3rd best ACC talent.
Sure it's great to get the best high school football talent in the US, particularly when so many live within 50 miles of campus. But more than a talent upgrade, right now we need a coaching upgrade especially on offensive.
If we're able to get to the point where we finish each year in the top 10-20, that's something to then build on. From there, we can start attracting even better talent, and then start legitimately competing for top-10 finishes...and so on. It starts, though, with getting offensive coaching that's on par with the level of offensive talent that we can definitely still recruit, even after accounting for the loss of the most elite SoFl kids to other teams.
I'd love for this to be a quick turnaround. But i don't think that's the case. I think there should be a quick improvement to a perennial top-20 finish with a competent staff on both sides of the ball. And then take the next step from there...
The bad news as I look at things, is that this won't be quick turnaround to start competing at a top-5 level. The good news is that I still absolutely believe that a path exists for us to get there. To start with, a highly competent OC is a must. Neither Bogle nor Stevenson begins to compare in importance, and that's outside our control for now in any event. Hiring an innovative highly competent OC is absolutely within our control.