CORAL GABLES, Fla. — Before Miami took the field against No. 1 Alabama on Sept. 4 in Atlanta, the consensus on the Hurricanes was they had one of their most talented and experienced football teams in years.
It wasn’t just the media who had Miami ranked 14th in the preseason.
Senior Bowl executives listed nine UM players on its preseason watch list: quarterback D’Eriq King, running back Cam’Ron Harris, receiver Dee Wiggins, defensive linemen Jon Ford and Nesta Silvera, cornerbacks Al Blades and DJ Ivey and safeties Gurvan Hall Jr. and Bubba Bolden.
Pro Football Focus listed fourth-year tight end Will Mallory among its top tight end draft-eligible prospects, comparing him to the Rams’ Tyler Higbee, and left tackle Zion Nelson, who is in his third year, was being projected by some as a potential first-round pick.
So now, after a 2-3 start (including a 30-28 loss to Virginia at home last Thursday when several NFL scouts watched from the press box), how do talent evaluators view the Hurricanes? The short answer: Not even half as good as they were built up to be.
A Senior Bowl executive this week told The Athletic only three of the preseason players on the watch list — Harris, Ford and Bolden — still have a chance to earn an invite (punter Lou Hedley could also be in the mix) and another veteran NFL personnel person identified only four draft-eligible Hurricanes as worthy of being drafted.
“The top prospect is Nelson,” the personnel person said. “He’s probably a fourth- or fifth-rounder right now. In my opinion, he needs to go back to school because he’s not good enough. Bolden is an average player, a bad tackler and has questionable speed. Everyone else is a free agent. Not an impressive group. Mallory better go back to school.”
Oklahoma transfer Charleston Rambo is probably a fifth- to sixth-round pick. They thought Bolden and Ford were late third-day picks.
It’d be one thing if these opinions came from only two talent evaluators, but The Athletic sought the opinions of others, including a college football television analyst, a veteran high school recruiting talent evaluator, and our own draft expert, Dane Brugler, for thoughts on what they’ve seen after five games.
A near-consensus opinion: Most of Miami’s upperclassmen just aren’t good enough to be more than NFL camp invitees, and from a competitive standpoint, the Hurricanes are at best “a middle-of-the-road ACC team.”
“I would say they’re not as good as Pitt or Clemson and not as talented as North Carolina,” the TV analyst said. “Wake Forest, the talent isn’t that far off, but the way they’re coached, they probably beat Miami in 20 of 20 games this year. NC State has a better collection of players. I would say the Canes are sort of in the same realm as Virginia Tech. But even Virginia Tech’s got a guy that’s going to be like a (second-day) pick at cornerback, and a couple of offensive linemen that’ll be picks, too.
“Miami is more talented than Syracuse, Duke and Florida State. They’re more talented than Georgia Tech, although Georgia Tech’s getting there. They’re probably on the same level as Louisville, Virginia or Boston College. … They’re sort of in that jumble in the middle.”
The recruiting expert sees only three teams with more talent than the Hurricanes: “Clemson, North Carolina and probably Pittsburgh.”
“But I also don’t think the conference is that good,” the recruiting expert said. “Virginia isn’t better than Miami. Miami should’ve beaten them. NC State has a more experienced quarterback (with D’Eriq King out), so they’ll probably beat Miami. But the rest of their ACC opponents? Miami should beat them.”
From a recruiting perspective
Being tabbed as a less-talented team than Clemson is one thing, but other ACC teams? That’s hard for Hurricanes fans to swallow considering Miami has consistently finished at the top of the recruiting standings in the Coastal Division — and right behind Clemson and Florida State overall — since joining the conference in 2004. But either through poor player development or overhyped recruiting rankings, expectations simply aren’t being met.
Coach Diaz, though, insists Miami’s last two recruiting classes are filled with difference-makers who will get to a point where they raise the Canes’ level of play.
“Young talent-wise, I think they got a lot of freaking potential NFL guys,” the recruiting expert said. “Leonard Taylor, James Williams, Brashard Smith, Romello Brinson, the tight end from Texas (Elijah Arroyo), these guys have all flashed. Their best players are their young guys. These guys should be playing.
“Leonard Taylor played the best I’ve seen a D-tackle at Miami play in like 10 years. He looked like … those guys that are just freaks — like Vince Wilfork, those guys that you knew when they stepped on the field were better than the guy in front of them. I thought Elijah Roberts looked good. I thought Chantz Williams looked good. Jaylan Knighton, Thad Franklin, Corey Brown, these guys all came in and they all flashed like the older players haven’t. These kids look better when they get on the field. What do all these kids have in common? They’re all freshman or redshirt freshmen. Why aren’t the younger players playing? They’re better. They’ve already proven they’re better. If mall kiosk jewelermall kiosk jewelermall kiosk jewelermall kiosk jewelermall kiosk jeweler (Diaz) doesn’t keep the job, I think the next head coach is going to be sending him a thank you letter because they’re leaving behind enough talent to win right away.”
Brugler and the TV analyst, though, aren’t necessarily as impressed with Miami’s younger group of players. Brugler, who has broken down tape of Miami’s games against Alabama, Michigan State and Virginia, said he hasn’t written down names of any Hurricane underclassmen as potential first-round picks (he does when he spots any when watching tape and focusing on draft-eligible picks).
“Dane looks at it from a different perspective because he’s looking for NFL prospects, but I see a lot of young guys that could be good, productive guys in the ACC,” the TV analyst said. “Williams and Taylor, I don’t know what their ceiling as an NFL talent looks like, but you’re talking about a rangy safety and a disruptive defensive back.
“Against Virginia, I thought Taylor (21 snaps) flashed. He was in the backfield. I thought Williams flashed at times, but he’s a young player that got caught out of position against a team like that, probably a little too much. I do think you can see the young guys have a different level of talent, especially when you talk about Williams and Taylor. I was impressed with Tyler Van Dyke in the second half. I thought from a maturity standpoint, he handled his struggles well and sort of wore down the defense. Jaylan Knighton, other than the fumble (that went out of bounds), is a good player. I think there are bright spots. (Receiver Xavier) Restrepo is a bright spot. In the end, though, you wanted them to sort of do something that validated what happened in the Central Connecticut State game, and I don’t think (Key’Shawn) Smith or (Romello) Brinson, I don’t think any of those young guys did that.”
The recruiting expert said the biggest mistake Diaz has made on the recruiting front since taking over as head coach is at linebacker. The expert said Diaz has also dropped the ball with his 2022 signing class, which has only nine commitments at the moment (ranked 44th in the 247Sports Composite standings). Diaz is banking on a strong finish to this season to impress top targets.
“You’ve got to stack classes and you can’t just have the last two classes be really good. What’s up with this year’s class? It’s terrible,” the recruiting expert said. “Corey Flagg isn’t a phenomenal player, but he’s a very good college player. They took a flyer on him. Well, you can’t just get one linebacker and wait for (four-star recruit) Wesley Bissainthe to get here next year. Why didn’t they recruit other guys or find linebackers in the portal?”
Hurricanes running back Cam’Ron Harris “is the one Miami prospect that I look at and say he has a chance because he has a lot of what NFL teams are looking for at the position,” said Dane Brugler, The Athletic’s draft expert. (Jason Getz / USA Today)
The top prospects
What does Brugler have to say about the few Hurricanes he and others think have a good shot at getting drafted? For one, he considers Harris the most intriguing prospect.
“He’s a downhill runner and I love the way he lowers pads into contact. I think what really helps him is he does a great job in pass (protection), and obviously, going to the next level that’s something that NFL coaches have put a premium on,” Brugler said. “If you’re going to earn a back-end roster spot, you have to play special teams and you have to be able to contribute on any down, any situation. That means you have to show up in passing downs and I think Cam’Ron Harris can do that now.”
There were 20 running backs taken in the 2021 draft but only four in the first three rounds, and the last 10 taken were in the sixth round or later. Among 79 draft-eligible FBS running backs with at least 50 carries this season, Harris ranks 62nd in Pro Football Focus’ elusiveness ranking (42.8), forcing 12 missed tackles on 76 touches this season.
“He’s not an elusive back,” Brugler said. “And I think his contact balance is very average. He’s not going to create a lot of yards after contact. But he’ll press the hole. He shows patience. He shows vision. He’s a good athlete. Harris, to me, is the one Miami prospect that I look at and say he has a chance because he has a lot of what NFL teams are looking for at the position.”
Bolden, a preseason All-ACC selection, does, too, Brugler said. But why has his draft stock slipped? Lack of consistency. Among 235 safeties at the FBS level to play at least 200 snaps, Bolden grades out 219th according to Pro Football Focus (52.1 PFF grade). Last year, Bolden graded out 124th among 275 FBS safeties to play at least 200 snaps with a grade of 66.7.
“If you’re going to draft a safety, you have to be able to trust him,” Brugler said. “He’s the last line of defense and he’s gonna bite on throws. He’s gonna take himself out of position. He’s going to miss tackles. That lack of consistency, that’s going to be something that NFL coaches look at and say, ‘Yeah, we just can’t do anything with this player because we can’t trust him out there.’ Now, do I think Bubba Bolden still has a decent shot to get drafted? Yes, because he has the talent and sometimes just a change of scenery, different coaching, you’re able to find a little more consistency. Teams are always going to bet on the talent and Bubba Bolden has that… even if we’re talking about a later-round pick.”
Rambo, who ranks fifth in the ACC with 31 catches for 387 yards and two touchdowns, has a respectable grade on PFF of 74.3, 65th among a group of 265 FBS receivers with at least 20 targets this season. So why do two NFL scouts and the personnel person say he’s a Day 3 pick? At 6-1, 185, he’s not physical enough, and getting pushed out of bounds against Virginia was an example, they said.
“There’s a lot of things Rambo does well,” Brugler said. “He tracks the football really well over shoulder. I think he has some route prowess where he’ll attack the defender’s leverage. He knows how to find little pockets of separation. The biggest thing for him is he just needs to play tougher. That skinny frame, it’s too easy for defensive backs to out physical him mid-route. He’s not a contested-catch receiver. If you’re going to be a fourth, fifth receiver on a team, guess what? You need to play special teams, and Charleston Rambo, that’s where he needs to show his toughness and be a little more consistent.
“I think he has a chance to be drafted. Wide receiver, that’s one of those positions that it’s not as strong as the last two or three years, but there’s still a lot of guys. I think in just my own personal database I’ve got over 200 seniors that either I’ve scouted or teams have mentioned their name to me. So, there’s just a lot of guys and it’s a really competitive position, and a lot of times the guys that can play special teams, maybe teams are looking for a specific type of receiver, that’s what’s going to separate these players. For Rambo, it’s really important for him to finish strong and show a little bit more toughness when he’s running those routes.”
What about Nelson, the only third-year player NFL scouts mentioned?
“He’s an incomplete player right now. I don’t know how you argue against that,” Brugler said. “The traits are impressive. 6-5, 315 pounds, 10 3/4-inch hands, 35-inch arms. He’s got a humongous wingspan over 84 inches. So just that alone and you factor in the athleticism, he’s a smooth mover, he’s got light feet. He can cover a lot of ground and pass protect with that slide quickness that he has. So you just talk about the athleticism, the length, the size. That right there is going to gain you interest by NFL teams. But now the rest needs to catch up. Because everybody in the NFL is big, fast and strong. So now it comes down to the little things, the details, your leverage, your toughness in the run game. Your ability to stay centered, not get overextended. And these are the areas where Zion really struggles right now.
“He’s late with his hands. He gets his weight off-centered. And that allows savvy defensive lineman to toss him, get him off his track. Zion Nelson … he’s still not there yet. If he feels ready, then he needs to go, but I think he could gain a lot by going back to school and becoming more consistent. And it’s not just about draft positioning and trying to turn yourself from a fourth-rounder to a second-rounder. It’s more about the long term. If you go to the NFL and you’re not cutting it, teams have only so much patience. So it’s really important for a guy like this, who has the ability. The rest just needs to catch up. So spend another year at the college level.”