AP ACC Breakout Players to Look Out For in 2018 - QB Malik Rosier

[cane since birth]

Final drive GT



Seriously, how can you hate on Malik?

He actually threw it a little behind langham on that throw, without that great catch we lose that game, was at the game he missed open guys in that game much like the pitt game except he didn’t even see them, thomas was streaking open on three plays outside of the bomb he caught later on

 

[cane since birth]

I don’t get it either. Some of these posters just really hate Malik. Even if he wins the job fair and square they would still be ****ed. I want the best man to win the job. Whoever Mark Richt decides that is. Some posters think they know more then the coaches!

Yes it’s because we hate him lol smh

 

[Loose Cannon]

The decision facing Richt is nearly identical to the decision Lincoln Riley faced when he took over at Oklahoma. Trevor Knight twice "led" the Sooners to an 11-2 record. Even had a victory over #3 Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. His completion percentage was actually slightly better than Rosier's. So he was the established starter when Riley arrived. Knight was athletic but terribly inaccurate, yet the team still managed to get wins. Riley had to choose between an inaccurate established starter (again with a better completion percentage than Rosier) or a two time walk on transfer (walk on at TTU, then walk on at OU) by the name of Baker Mayfield, who was far more accurate in practice.

Riley went with the walk on transfer because accuracy matters more than anything. You know how the story ends.

So Oklahoma goes from a 2 loss, Top 5 team, two consecutive seasons, dumps their wildly inaccurate QB, brings in a Heisman Trophy, 1st over-all draft pick QB and now they're suddenly a 2 loss, Top 5 team?

Wait, what?

 

[Loose Cannon]

So Oklahoma goes from a 2 loss, Top 5 team, two consecutive seasons, dumps their wildly inaccurate QB, brings in a Heisman Trophy, 1st over-all draft pick QB and now they're suddenly a 2 loss, Top 5 team?

Wait, what?

What this says, for anybody who wants to take off their I Hate Rosier t-shirt and look, is that having an average team with a few exceptional players is good enough to get you through a season with a good number of wins, only 2 or 3 losses, a decent bowl, and a top 10-15 finish. But to get to that next level, to break into that elite group of 3 or 4 teams that have been consistently in the top 5 for the past 7 or 8 seasons is going to take more than improved play from a single position.

 

[Handsome Squidbum]

What this says, for anybody who wants to take off their I Hate Rosier t-shirt and look, is that having an average team with a few exceptional players is good enough to get you through a season with a good number of wins, only 2 or 3 losses, a decent bowl, and a top 10-15 finish. But to get to that next level, to break into that elite group of 3 or 4 teams that have been consistently in the top 5 for the past 7 or 8 seasons is going to take more than improved play from a single position.

Here's is a book you should check out. First, learn how statistics work.

Once you have mastered the fundamentals, you can take the 200 level course and learn about concepts like "correlation is not causation." I posted the article a bunch of times already. Guess what the very first metric NFL teams look at when drafting a QB is?

Completion percentage. It's pretty much a rule that they won't draft anyone with a completion percentage less than 58.5% outside some very special circumstances (in the world of statistics, these are called "outliers."). Why? Because it is too hard to run an effective offense when a QB can't be depended on to deliver the ball accurately (this is what is known as a truism). You appear to believe that math wears an "I hate Rosier" t-shirt.

 

[Loose Cannon]

Here's is a book you should check out. First, learn how statistics work.

View attachment 59893

Once you have mastered the fundamentals, you can take the 200 level course and learn about concepts like "correlation is not causation." I posted the article a bunch of times already. Guess what the very first metric NFL teams look at when drafting a QB is?

Completion percentage. It's pretty much a rule that they won't draft anyone with a completion percentage less than 58.5% outside some very special circumstances (in the world of statistics, these are called "outliers."). Why? Because it is too hard to run an effective offense when a QB can't be depended on to deliver the ball accurately (this is what is known as a truism). You appear to believe that math wears an "I hate Rosier" t-shirt.

You do understand that the NCAA and NFL are two different things, right? You also understand that 4 out of 5 of our National Championships were won with sub-60% passers? Your data would suggest that 4 out of 5 QB's to lift the National Championship trophy at Miami are the outliers rather than the one who went on to actually have a meaningful NFL career.

Look in your little book there and tell me if it says that if something is the largest metric, then that must mean it's the only metric that matters, even when considering two entirely different levels of competition.

Your example, the one you provided, proves my point, not yours, and yet you're not smart enough to notice it. You don't have to have an NFL caliber QB to have a successful NCAA team. In fact, it is the outlier. National Championship QB's RARELY go on the be highly successful in the NFL. OU added a NFL #1 over all pick to replace a "wildly inaccurate" QB and they went from 11-2 and being ranked in the AP final Top 5, to 12-2 and being ranked in the AP final Top 5. Going from a wildly inaccurate scrub to the NFL first over all draft pick barely made a difference, if any.

You think because you read an article regarding QBs and success in the NFL that you can apply this to success in the NCAA, when the mountain of evidence is completely against you. There have been many great NCAA QB's that have gone on to win championships yet absolutely sucked as pros, and even more that didn't even pan out at the next level.

Look in your little book and tell me how much Vince Young's 62% at Texas helped him out in the NFL.

 

[Handsome Squidbum]

Put your money where your mouth is. You seem confident Miami can win a championship with Rosier since he is a "great NCAA qb." I'll even allow you to adjust your expectations from natty title to just acc title. Name your wager.

 

[Handsome Squidbum]

I've noticed another interesting trend: most of the posters who are defending Rosier and (ridiculously) calling those of us "haters" for pointing out that Rosier is literally one of the least accurate qbs in all of college football (98 out of 110) created CIS accounts in 2017. I guess it was to be expected that bandwagon fans would invade this site.

 

[Loose Cannon]

Put your money where your mouth is. You seem confident Miami can win a championship with Rosier since he is a "great NCAA qb." I'll even allow you to adjust your expectations from natty title to just acc title. Name your wager.

When did you hear me say Rosier is a "great NCAA QB?"

You didn't. You're making it up just like the rest of your argument. Nobody is defending Rosier. We're just simply calling your little assertion that we can't be successful without a >60% QB for what it is, friggin stupid. We've won 4 Championships with sub-60% passers, and we just finished up a 14 season stretch of winning less than 10 games each with several seasons with QB's completing more than 60%.

Your argument fails because it's stupid and because recent history proves otherwise. Not because anybody is defending Rosier. He's 54%. It is what it is. If he was 54% against Pitt and Wisconsin we win them both and finish the season 12-1, which is better than Baker Mayfield did throwing for 70%. We don't need an NFL QB to win. We don't need 70% to win. Our team isn't built completely around having a high functioning QB. We simply need Rosier to not be a 44% guy in two games last season.

 

[Loose Cannon]

I've noticed another interesting trend: most of the posters who are defending Rosier and (ridiculously) calling those of us "haters" for pointing out that Rosier is literally one of the least accurate qbs in all of college football (98 out of 110) created CIS accounts in 2017. I guess it was to be expected that bandwagon fans would invade this site.

What was our record when Morris threw for 70%?

 

[Handsome Squidbum]

What was our record when Morris threw for 70%?

I learned a long time ago not to argue with brand new religious converts. You just became a Canes fan. I get it. It's shiny and new - I won't burst your bubble. You are absolutely right, Rosier is, as you said, "a great college qb." Just do us a favor- after Miami has a disappointing season with Rosier in 2018 and you go jump on another bandwagon, don't come back.

 

[Loose Cannon]

I learned a long time ago not to argue with brand new religious converts. You just became a Canes fan. I get it. It's shiny and new - I won't burst your bubble. You are absolutely right, Rosier is a great college qb. Just do us a favor- after Miami has a disappointing season with Rosier in 2018 and you go jump on another bandwagon, don't come back.

You should have just learned not to continue arguing after your argument has been a proven failure, but feel free to dig back into your statistics 101 book and tell the rest of us how Morris throws for 70% during a 6-6 season, Kyle Right and Jacory Harris, and Brad Kaaya have >60% seasons yet don't get to 10 wins or the ACCCG, yet Rosier does while throwing for 54% has anything at all to do with how long I've been a fan.

 

[Handsome Squidbum]

You should have just learned not to continue arguing after your argument has been a proven failure, but feel free to dig back into your statistics 101 book and tell the rest of us how Morris throws for 70% during a 6-6 season, Kyle Right and Jacory Harris, and Brad Kaaya have >60% seasons yet don't get to 10 wins or the ACCCG, yet Rosier does while throwing for 54% has anything at all to do with how long I've been a fan.

So your counter to the argument that Rosier is an inaccurate qb on a well coached good team is that Morris was an accurate qb on a poorly coached bad team. Since 4 out of 5 Miami championships on some of the most talented teams in the history of college football were won by qbs with less than 60% completion, then Rosier is good enough to win a championship (and let's conveniently most of the years that Miami had some of the most talented teams and didn't win a championship). So if Miami has NFL caliber talent at most positions then Rosier is capable of winning a national championship. Lol. OK. You win.

 

[3GC]

I joined 2017, does that make me a new fan?
Hardly, i saw the 65 Notre **** game, father took me when i was a kid.
Lurked here since the beginning of the Golden era.
Why didn't i join? People like you..

 

[Loose Cannon]

So your counter to the argument that Rosier is an inaccurate qb

Nobody is arguing this. This is just the argument you want to have because you read an article linking completion percentages to NFL success, and you think this makes you smart. It doesn’t. Let me clue you in as to why your article on completion percentages and NFL success and draft-ability cannot be carried over as a predictor of NCAA team success. Almost all collegiate QBs do not make it to the NFL. Almost all Championship collegiate QBs do not make it or pan out in the NFL. The ones that do are the exceptions, not the rule. Your whole argument is the outlier.

 

[Handsome Squidbum]

I joined 2017, does that make me a new fan?
Hardly, i saw the 65 Notre **** game, father took me when i was a kid.
Lurked here since the beginning of the Golden era.
Why didn't i join? People like you..

I joined 2017, does that make me a new fan?
Hardly, i saw the 65 Notre **** game, father took me when i was a kid.
Lurked here since the beginning of the Golden era.
Why didn't i join? People like you..

I initially suspected all the multiple pro-Rosier posters were actually just one person creating multiple accounts. Surely, no rational person could have watched every game last season and come out believing that the erratic qb play we saw was good enough to win a championship. Couldn't see the IP addresses, but saw that the vast majority of the pro Rosier crowd created accounts in 2017. If there are posters who created accounts before 2017 who think Rosier should be the starter next year, I'd be interested in learning why.

This site attracts lots of bandwagon fans. New account in 2017 but not a bandwagon fan? Good for you.

You will see when Miami has a losing streak new accounts suddenly popping up and spamming the board. Ain't one of 'em? Neato.

 

[Handsome Squidbum]

Nobody is arguing this. This is just the argument you want to have because you read an article linking completion percentages to NFL success, and you think this makes you smart. It doesn’t. Let me clue you in as to why your article on completion percentages and NFL success and draft-ability cannot be carried over as a predictor of NCAA team success. Almost all collegiate QBs do not make it to the NFL. Almost all Championship collegiate QBs do not make it or pan out in the NFL. The ones that do are the exceptions, not the rule. Your whole argument is the outlier.

Again, put your money where your *** is. $100 says if Rosier starts the season as qb, he doesn't finish the season as qb.

 

[Loose Cannon]

Again, put your money where your *** is. $100 says if Rosier starts the season as qb, he doesn't finish the season as qb.

Again, stop trying to imply that my argument is that Rosier is good. **** boy! You slow or something? ****, even if I won the bet, I’d probably just be getting my tax money back.

Quit moving the goal posts. You presented some articles which claims that QB accuracy is the single biggest metric when measuring where QBs will go in the NFL draft and how well they’ll perform. Nothing at all wrong with that until you wrongly tried to take that point and assume that accuracy is the only thing that confers success, apply it to the college game, then bundle it all together to conclude that we cannot be successful without a +60% passer.

This is bull**** and demonstrably so. We’ve won 4 championships with sub-60% QBs and just had our best year in the last 14 with the least accurate QB over that same time frame. Now you want to crawfish and talk about those teams having better coaches and better players, well **** off. Your argument is that accuracy is the predictor for success, remember?

My argument is that mediocre accuracy can be overcome in college with better coaching and team play.

 

[Handsome Squidbum]

Again, stop trying to imply that my argument is that Rosier is good. **** boy! You slow or something? ****, even if I won the bet, I’d probably just be getting my tax money back.

Quit moving the goal posts. You presented some articles which claims that QB accuracy is the single biggest metric when measuring where QBs will go in the NFL draft and how well they’ll perform. Nothing at all wrong with that until you wrongly tried to take that point and assume that accuracy is the only thing that confers success, apply it to the college game, then bundle it all together to conclude that we cannot be successful without a +60% passer.

This is bull**** and demonstrably so. We’ve won 4 championships with sub-60% QBs and just had our best year in the last 14 with the least accurate QB over that same time frame. Now you want to crawfish and talk about those teams having better coaches and better players, well **** off. Your argument is that accuracy is the predictor for success, remember?

My argument is that mediocre accuracy can be overcome in college with better coaching and team play.

Ok I see where you jumped the tracks. I didn’t say that accuracy isn’t the only factor that confers success. I said accuracy is the metric most closely tied to NFL success- not TD to INT ratio, qb rating, efficiency, running yards, sacks etc. Nope, the best metric for determining whether a qb is likely to be successful in the NFL is just your standard ol’ completion percentage (not my personal opinion, it’s been studied extensively). Are there accurate qbs who didn’t have successful college careers but NFL success? Yup, see it all the time. Inaccurate qbs (less than 58.5% completion) that had college success? Yup, you found some examples. Inaccurate qbs that had NFL success? Not many.

Does that accuracy correlate with winning college games? Mixed bag, can find some evidence on both sides. If Miami has a more accurate passer than Rosier, should the team start him? I say yes, absolutely. You say no, there are other factors like Rosier is a “gamer” and is capable of winning a championship. I suspect Richt knows that Miami can’t live and die on big plays again and know that he needs a qb who can make intermediate throws consistently. Game 1 he won’t throw Perry or Williams to the wolves, but after Rosier goes cold again in the following games (which he did in basically every game in 2017 except maybe the ND game), I think he gets the hook.

This is why I’m willing to put $100 on the line that if Rosier starts the season as QB, he doesn’t finish the season as QB. It's a no-lose proposition for me. If Rosier goes wire to wire as the qb, it means he had a successful season, and I'm happy for the kid. If he doesn't finish the season as the starting qb (and I don't think he will because his career completion percentage is too low, the trend of inaccuracy will continue, and Richt won't want to limit his offense for a 3rd year in a row), then I win your $100. Are you going to accept the wager or not?

 

[Loose Cannon]

Ok I see where you jumped the tracks. I didn’t say that accuracy isn’t the only factor that confers success. I said accuracy is the metric most closely tied to NFL success- not TD to INT ratio, qb rating, efficiency, running yards, sacks etc. Nope, the best metric for determining whether a qb is likely to be successful in the NFL is just your standard ol’ completion percentage (not my personal opinion, it’s been studied extensively). Are there accurate qbs who didn’t have successful college careers but NFL success? Yup, see it all the time. Inaccurate qbs (less than 58.5% completion) that had college success? Yup, you found some examples. Inaccurate qbs that had NFL success? Not many.

Re-read what you just wrote, then ask yourself if we’re talking about individual NFL success or collegiate team success. When you answer that question honestly you’ll understand why your argument fails. Almost all collegiate QBs never play a meaningful down in the NFL, even the championship and award winners. The NFL is where the elite QB, maybe one a year on average, has a successful transition. Most of the other 8 or so that get drafted will never play. Of course those who do succeed will have elite accuracy. They have to, because everything I just said applies to every other position. DB, for example. Almost every team we play has 1 or fewer guys who will go on to be successful DBs in the NFL, so you don’t have to be as accurate in college. Almost all the LBs we face can not run or tackle well enough to play on Sunday. On and on.

For these reasons, trying to use a metric shown to predict individual success in the NFL as a predictor of collegiate team success is silly. Literally all of the other variables in the equation are different.