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AP ACC Breakout Players to Look Out For in 2018 - QB Malik Rosier

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MIA42178 said:
Best since Dorsey?

He didn’t start over Kaaya with two different staffs. And it wasn’t close

Oh and Brock Berlin (in shotgun) over Malik Rosier too

And Stephen Morris
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Kaaya never won a game that mattered, same with Morris.
You got me on Brock, still remember the Gator game..
 
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I'll repost what I posted in another thread:

Football Outsiders: College stats don't lie

The single best predictor of success percentage is completion percentage. Rosier's completion percentage last year was 54%. That is not just categorically bad, it is quite literally nearly dead last in the ACC.

2017 ACC College Football Individual Statistics Leaders for Passing - ESPN

If Rosier was dead last in any other metric like passer efficiency, QBR, or TD/INT ratio I'd be willing to consider the possibility that Rosier just had a fluke bad year and had the potential to bounce back and lead Miami to the ACC Championship game again next season. The fact that he was so unbelievably bad in the one metric that is the most strongly associated with being a "good qb" (completion percentage) leads me to believe that Rosier instead had a fluke good year (in terms of wins and TDs) that is unlikely to be replicated next year. Again, I point you to the fact that we were two miracle catches away from being 8-5. A stat like total number of TDs has a lot to do with the number of scoring opportunities per game, and Miami gave Rosier a TON of chances as the D was averaging 4 turnovers a game. There is a far, far greater chance that Rosier will have a a bad year in 2018 than it is likely that he has a "breakout season." Don't get it twisted, I have nothing against the kid and kudos to him for hanging in there last year. Unfortunately for him (and us as Hurricanes fans) the stats don't lie.
 
TimeB0mb said:
I'll repost what I posted in another thread:

Football Outsiders: College stats don't lie

The single best predictor of success percentage is completion percentage. Rosier's completion percentage last year was 54%. That is not just categorically bad, it is quite literally nearly dead last in the ACC.

2017 ACC College Football Individual Statistics Leaders for Passing - ESPN

If Rosier was dead last in any other metric like passer efficiency, QBR, or TD/INT ratio I'd be willing to consider the possibility that Rosier just had a fluke bad year and had the potential to bounce back and lead Miami to the ACC Championship game again next season. The fact that he was so unbelievably bad in the one metric that is the most strongly associated with being a "good qb" (completion percentage) leads me to believe that Rosier instead had a fluke good year (in terms of wins and TDs) that is unlikely to be replicated next year. Again, I point you to the fact that we were two miracle catches away from being 8-5. A stat like total number of TDs has a lot to do with the number of scoring opportunities per game, and Miami gave Rosier a TON of chances as the D was averaging 4 turnovers a game. There is a far, far greater chance that Rosier will have a a bad year in 2018 than it is likely that he has a "breakout season." Don't get it twisted, I have nothing against the kid and kudos to him for hanging in there last year. Unfortunately for him (and us as Hurricanes fans) the stats don't lie.
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Ken Dorsey was a career 58% passer and 56% when we last won a championship in 2001, the same year he sat in New York and watched Eric Crouch, with his 1200 yards passing, win the Heisman.
 
Loose Cannon said:
Ken Dorsey was a career 58% passer and 56% when we last won a championship in 2001, the same year he sat in New York and watched Eric Crouch, with his 1200 yards passing, win the Heisman.
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You can win the lottery too if you play enough times. Doesn't mean it's a sound retirement strategy. Also, your example proved the point of the article. Dorsey was a terrible NFL qb. You offered up what is known as a statistical outlier.

Yes, it is possible for an inaccurate qb to win a college championship. It is also possible that the fact that Ken Dorsey was the qb for what is widely considered to be the most talented team in the history of college football might have played a tiny part in explaining how an inaccurate qb won a national title. You are getting emotional about your qbs instead of looking at the numbers. You can believe in your heart of hearts that Rosier is going to be the next Ken Dorsey and be the exception to the rule that accuracy is the greatest predictor of success; I'll trust the odds. You can take Rosier, I'll take the field.

I do happen to think that Rosier CAN be the qb on a winning team if he serves as a caretaker qb and doesn't turn the ball over, Miami dominates with the run game, and fields a smothering defense. I don't believe Miami has the OL to establish a power run game, which is why that plan will fail. A dynamic qb can overcome those deficiencies.

Bottom line: given that the 2017 version of Rosier was very nearly dead last in the ACC in accuracy, it shouldn't be hard for another qb on the roster to play better than Rosier. If there isn't a more accurate QB on the roster, then Richt failed at recruiting and developing qbs. Perry should have been a shoo-in to start this year. Sounds like he is in 3rd or 4th place. That is a massive miss by Richt if Perry turns out to be a flop.
 
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3GC said:
Kaaya never won a game that mattered, same with Morris.
You got me on Brock, still remember the Gator game..
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That will always be the best game I've ever attended BUT I think Rosier's win over FSU (at the time) meant just as much, maybe more to the program to get that win. Dude was pumping up the FSU crowd right before throwing the game winning TD to fuggin Langham. That's some Babe Ruth ****. But I guess people only want to remember the last few games where everyone played like total crap. Redwine should be getting more hate on here than Rosier. Secondary was lost, LB's couldn't tackle, D-line got no pressure, OL couldn't hold blocks, Homer couldn't find any room. But all the focus is on Rosier.
 
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RBLCane said:
I see we have a lot of Malik fans here. I just don't see how he qualifies as a "breakout" player. If anything, he "broke out" and made a name for himself last year, even though he was far from outstanding. In 2018, I don't see him getting significantly better. He's a a senior. What can he possibly do that he hasn't done already to up his game?!?!

So the fact that he's even on this "breakout" list is highly questionable; there are tons of better candidates on this team who could have "breakout" seasons. And the two sentence endorsement he gets from the author is hilarious. The guy might not even start!
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Well that was confusing. Totally agree that he "broke out" last year so has no place on this list. But how are you confused about what he might do better in his senior year? Is JR year somehow the pinnacle of what any college football player can achieve?

I'm not holding my breath, but it's pretty easy to see the potential for him to improve his accuracy and his decision making.
 
kryptonite said:
Well that was confusing. Totally agree that he "broke out" last year so has no place on this list. But how are you confused about what he might do better in his senior year? Is JR year somehow the pinnacle of what any college football player can achieve?

I'm not holding my breath, but it's pretty easy to see the potential for him to improve his accuracy and his decision making.
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In 10 months Rosier went from backup 3rd baseman material to the all time Touchdown leader by a Miami QB, through 6 games he was on the Maxell watch list, and he was the starting QB for the Miami Hurricanes in an Orange Bowl since when? Man I’d give my left nut to be Malik Rosier last season.
 
kryptonite said:
Well that was confusing. Totally agree that he "broke out" last year so has no place on this list. But how are you confused about what he might do better in his senior year? Is JR year somehow the pinnacle of what any college football player can achieve?

I'm not holding my breath, but it's pretty easy to see the potential for him to improve his accuracy and his decision making.
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I obviously hope I'm 100% wrong but I think Malik has hit his ceiling.
 
HurikaneMarc said:
You can't know his ceiling unless you know whats wrong with him. His inaccuracy issues could be the result of something that Jon Richt can fix.
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I'm not sure why everyone on here is so obsessed with accuracy. Tebow was one of the most horrifically inaccurate passers of all time but won two national titles with the right scheme and a great defense. A list of inaccurate collegiate QB's who won national titles could go on for days. For those of you thinking a freshman QB can come in and beat Clemson right away are missing what's wrong with this team.
 
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Pickle Richt said:
I'm not sure why everyone on here is so obsessed with accuracy. Tebow was one of the most horrifically inaccurate passers of all time but won two national titles with the right scheme and a great defense. A list of inaccurate collegiate QB's who won national titles could go on for days. For those of you thinking a freshman QB can come in and beat Clemson right away are missing what's wrong with this team.
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Even with being a bad passer.
 

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Pickle Richt said:
That will always be the best game I've ever attended BUT I think Rosier's win over FSU (at the time) meant just as much, maybe more to the program to get that win. Dude was pumping up the FSU crowd right before throwing the game winning TD to fuggin Langham. That's some Babe Ruth ****. But I guess people only want to remember the last few games where everyone played like total crap. Redwine should be getting more hate on here than Rosier. Secondary was lost, LB's couldn't tackle, D-line got no pressure, OL couldn't hold blocks, Homer couldn't find any room. But all the focus is on Rosier.
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I'm with you, any QB that gets the FSU monkey off our backs is fine with me.
People on this thread keep espousing completion %.
While fun to yak about, stats have Never won a football game..
 
Pickle Richt said:
I'm not sure why everyone on here is so obsessed with accuracy. Tebow was one of the most horrifically inaccurate passers of all time but won two national titles with the right scheme and a great defense. A list of inaccurate collegiate QB's who won national titles could go on for days. For those of you thinking a freshman QB can come in and beat Clemson right away are missing what's wrong with this team.
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Actually Chris Leakey was the starting QB, not Tebow.
Crap, i hate talking about the Gators & NatChamships in the same sentence..
 
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