JJ Watt isn't worth 3 points on the line in an NFL game but an undersized LB and a pass rushing DE are the difference in stopping the run and what 2-3 extra losses?
Embarrassing
I heard this line, almost exactly, earlier today and I still don't get the comparison. One situation is an NFL player with an NFL replacement in a singular game. The other situation is "an undersized LB," with wildly inexperienced replacements, who could have done what no other replacement on the team will be able to do nearly as well. It will likely literally change defensive playcalls and personnel groupings beyond just "filling in the next man up at LB."
Like most sports, college football games come down to scenarios against equal or slightly superior talent. In college football, these are seemingly magnified. The 3rd and 2 where Dalvin Cook or ND's QB cutback after being initially disrupted in the backfield. And, a flexible, experienced and sure tackler like Grace is no longer our matchup. I don't know the exact number of "games" this affects - and don't find that number to be reasonably quantifiable - but I can guarantee you there will be dozens of critical scenarios where the outcome (a first down, a missed tackle, a sack, a forced fumble) is less likely to be in our favor without Grace. Anyone who wants to argue that, I'd like to hear a non-homer opinion so I can better understand.
I believe AQM, on the other hand, is a lesser loss. Together, though, I can see it affecting the W/L column - even if "minimally." How many games - 1 or 2 - we have no idea. I hope it's 0. Let's see which True Frosh LB steps up next to Shaq. What's done is f'in done and now we move on. Grace was my favorite player on the team. He's gone. We can still win football games. But, to hear opinions downplaying his loss seems off to me.