I think we're looking at 7-8 regular season wins. Here's how I look at it.
Opponents Group 1 - We have to beat all these teams, no question:
Miami U.
Bethune-Cookman
Temple
Virginia
This looks easy, but of course, last year, MTSU would have been in this group.
Group 2 - We go 3-1 against these opponents:
Georgia Tech
NC State
Louisville
Boston College
It's kind of sad, as someone who was an undergrad at UM the last time we won a natty, to look at this group and wonder whether we'll go 3-1, but this is where we are.
Right there, we're at 7 wins. To get to 8, we'd have to win one of the following games:
Texas A&M
North Carolina
Clemson
Florida State
Realistically, if we go 4-0 against group 1, 3-1 against group 2, and 1-3 against group 4, I'd be satisfied with the season, after the absolute fiasco that was the 2022 season.