NFL 2021 Draft

[Shogungts]

Phillips ran 4.5- 4.6 in HS. It’ll be interesting to see his 40. If he pulls off a 4.5 at over 260lbs he won’t get out of the top 10. If Greg runs a 4.7 at 280lbs he’s not getting out of the top 10 either. You can say what you want about overweighting 40s but these guys have the production to match. Every team needs more pass rushers.

A little off topic, but thought this tweet that our very own Austin Pfenninger retweeted was interesting about how the 40 is going to become even less relevant soon as teams are better able to determine in game speed

 

[gogeta4]

A little off topic, but thought this tweet that our very own Austin Pfenninger retweeted was interesting about how the 40 is going to become even less relevant soon as teams are better able to determine in game speed

I still doubt it.

For example...we had Manny Diaz talking abot mph from in game data to show how guys were plugged in...In the same game that he gave up 700 yards rushing.

You cant compare the mph of guys on different surfaces, game scenario's..those 40s at the combines are done in the same place, same time, under the same circunstances. Keep that analytics geeky sh*t out of football...its already ruining basketball. (per, high percentage shots b.s) lmao...Denver Nuggest blew a game this week with a last second shot ona steal on a 4 on 1 break and all 4 guys stopped at the 3 pt line .....DOWN 2. LMAO

 

[Shogungts]

I still doubt it.

For example...we had Manny Diaz talking abot mph from in game data to show how guys were plugged in...In the same game that he gave up 700 yards rushing.

You cant compare the mph of guys on different surfaces, game scenario's..those 40s at the combines are done in the same place, same time, under the same circunstances. Keep that analytics geeky sh*t out of football...its already ruining basketball. (per, high percentage shots b.s) lmao...Denver Nuggest blew a game this week with a last second shot ona steal on a 4 on 1 break and all 4 guys stopped at the 3 pt line .....DOWN 2. LMAO

I don't think this is an analytics vs not analytics thing though; it's discussing using a measurement that is potentially more relevant. There are already questions about how the 40 translates to gameplay and when you consider that some potential draft picks will spend so much time focusing on and practicing their 40 that becomes even less relevant to how they actually play the game. Also, having ~12 games of plays worth of data vs 1 or 2 runnings of the 40...

I think you make good points about circumstances though, but I am sure they can figure out a standardize how they evaluate the speed based on circumstances.

 

[gogeta4]

I don't think this is an analytics vs not analytics thing though; it's discussing using a measurement that is potentially more relevant. There are already questions about how the 40 translates to gameplay and when you consider that some potential draft picks will spend so much time focusing on and practicing their 40 that becomes even less relevant to how they actually play the game. Also, having ~12 games of plays worth of data vs 1 or 2 runnings of the 40...

I think you make good points about circumstances though, but I am sure they can figure out a standardize how they evaluate the speed based on circumstances.

Again we had our coach just this szn..brag about mph speed of his defensive guys in a game we got molly whopped.

The 40 is here to stay. The got**** Bench press means less and no one cares about it being taken out either. When is a football player ever on his back pushing someone off in that manner?.

In that case there would be no need for 100m dashes in the olympics, etc. We cna just go by what guys did at practice, avg it out, and declare a winner.

The 12 games of game film is more relavant than the 40 at the comibine anyway to these scouts. The 40 confirms what some of them already think...some times surprised them and they go back and watch more FILM of that prospect. Film and general eye data will always remains upreme and more important than some MPH metric.

 

[HighSeas]

I still doubt it.

For example...we had Manny Diaz talking abot mph from in game data to show how guys were plugged in...In the same game that he gave up 700 yards rushing.

You cant compare the mph of guys on different surfaces, game scenario's..those 40s at the combines are done in the same place, same time, under the same circunstances. Keep that analytics geeky sh*t out of football...its already ruining basketball. (per, high percentage shots b.s) lmao...Denver Nuggest blew a game this week with a last second shot ona steal on a 4 on 1 break and all 4 guys stopped at the 3 pt line .....DOWN 2. LMAO

Analytics does not advocate for that but I hear you. It's ingrained in these dudes to run to the 3pt line. I lost interest in NBA cause every team is jacking 3s and most teams don't defend hard every night so a lot of games just come down to shooting luck. It's very frustrating and creates a bad brand of parity. Like Raptors play your Heat and Butler/Iguodala can't miss when they're like 20% 3pt shooters on the year smh.

Agree that quantifying game speed is not as relevant as it seems because of context. Max speed is interesting but still doesn't give you a better gauge of game speed than 40 times. Honestly film is the best judge of game speed. I love Rashod Bateman and Tylan Wallace but they don't run go routes like 4.3 guys no matter what EXOS is saying.

 

[Zbrod95]

Going to be completely honest. I care more about splits than 40s. TDs win football games but how fast you go from 0-10 gets me way closer to TDs than how fast you can run 40 yards.

 

[Shogungts]

Again we had our coach just this szn..brag about mph speed of his defensive guys in a game we got molly whopped.

The 40 is here to stay. The got**** Bench press means less and no one cares about it being taken out either. When is a football player ever on his back pushing someone off in that manner?.

In that case there would be no need for 100m dashes in the olympics, etc. We cna just go by what guys did at practice, avg it out, and declare a winner.

The 12 games of game film is more relavant than the 40 at the comibine anyway to these scouts. The 40 confirms what some of them already think...some times surprised them and they go back and watch more FILM of that prospect. Film and general eye data will always remains upreme and more important than some MPH metric.

I am not following the argument about Manny and game speed - if for some reason they ran the 40 before, during or after the game you know Manny would have talked about that too if he thought it would support whatever point he was trying to make. I don't know the specifics of the quote, but I am sure he was trying to say either the players didn't give up or that Miami players compared favorably to UNC. Either way, fans understandably don't want to hear that when your team just got your *** kicked. And neither the in game speed or a great 40 speed was going to change the outcome of that game.

The argument about practice doesnt make sense to me either as winning in football is not who runs the fastest whether that be in game speed or the 40.

I don't look at this as analytics, but rather that technology has advanced and provided scouts with a tool that allows them to measure something that they couldn't before.

As for mentioning the bench press, you have a good point there and are probably right that they won't completely phase out the 40, but perhaps it will be even less relevant.

 

[moshated305]

The 40 will never be phased out. It's basically the only reason people even watch the combine lol MPH thing is just an extra tool scouts will use but I doubt it will ever surpass the 40.

 

[gogeta4]

Analytics does not advocate for that but I hear you. It's ingrained in these dudes to run to the 3pt line. I lost interest in NBA cause every team is jacking 3s and most teams don't defend hard every night so a lot of games just come down to shooting luck. It's very frustrating and creates a bad brand of parity. Like Raptors play your Heat and Butler/Iguodala can't miss when they're like 20% 3pt shooters on the year smh.

Agree that quantifying game speed is not as relevant as it seems because of context. Max speed is interesting but still doesn't give you a better gauge of game speed than 40 times. Honestly film is the best judge of game speed. I love Rashod Bateman and Tylan Wallace but they don't run go routes like 4.3 guys no matter what EXOS is saying.

My Heat are hilarious...have some of the worst 3% shooters or guys that are at times afraid of shooting 3's..Iggy and Jimmy Butler. Ten have guys like Duncan Robinson who cant miss.

GAME FILM...GAME FILM..GAMEFILM. THE 40 only confirms what they see on tape.

 

[TrueFloridian]

A little off topic, but thought this tweet that our very own Austin Pfenninger retweeted was interesting about how the 40 is going to become even less relevant soon as teams are better able to determine in game speed

40s do matter and it’s already by far the biggest spectacle of the combine. You’re insane if you buy into DJ’s tweet. I don’t trust anyone that doesn’t drink.

 

[CaneDog66]

Dane Brugler has the following Canes ranked in his top 100:

24. Rousseau - EDGE4
29. Phillips - EDGE5
82. Jordan - TE4

This mirrors what I've been saying which is that GR made a (earnings) mistake opting out and Jordan should have returned to push for 1st rd consideration.

Looking at the draft order I see these teams as being fits in those ranges:
Rousseau - IND, TEN, SEA or he slides
Phillips - LAR, CLE, TB, BUF
Jordan - JAX, ATL, PHI, ARI

Would love BJ on my Jags for sure. Lord knows we need a top flight TE to stretch defenses and allow for more running room for Robinson. That would be a fantastic pickup for Jacksonville at @100th selection in the 2021 Draft

 

[CaneDog66]

Dane Brugler has the following Canes ranked in his top 100:

24. Rousseau - EDGE4
29. Phillips - EDGE5
82. Jordan - TE4

This mirrors what I've been saying which is that GR made a (earnings) mistake opting out and Jordan should have returned to push for 1st rd consideration.

Looking at the draft order I see these teams as being fits in those ranges:
Rousseau - IND, TEN, SEA or he slides
Phillips - LAR, CLE, TB, BUF
Jordan - JAX, ATL, PHI, ARI

Would love BJ drafted by the Jags, we need a top flight TE as there are none on the current roster. Tyler Eifert was supposed to be that TE but he's long in the tooth these days, and has had an injury history. Having Jordan would stretch defenses and allow Robinson more room for rushing.

 

[Phydeaux]

At the risk of coming off like that dude from warchant... Hard to believe this is the same beanpole that arrived from USC

couple of things

1. if this kid has developed this much in a year here, we may have finally turned the training staff bugaboo
2. as we all watched with TB - a 4 man line that can get to the QB will still win Super Bowls long into the future
while offenses may change, a DL of 4 haunting a QB down after down is the best Defense
a DE that is physical and finishes, is the most prized possession

he's a top 15 player
Rosseau is top 20 b/c possibility

 

[No_Fly_Zone]

A little off topic, but thought this tweet that our very own Austin Pfenninger retweeted was interesting about how the 40 is going to become even less relevant soon as teams are better able to determine in game speed

Curious if FERPA comes into play and the student-athlete would need to consent to the distribution of the records/data.

 

[Shogungts]

40s do matter and it’s already by far the biggest spectacle of the combine. You’re insane if you buy into DJ’s tweet. I don’t trust anyone that doesn’t drink.

No idea who that even is - I just saw @apfenny3's tweet. And I definitely didn't take into consideration the spectacle of the 40, but that makes sense.

 

[CanesFan93]

Would love BJ drafted by the Jags, we need a top flight TE as there are none on the current roster. Tyler Eifert was supposed to be that TE but he's long in the tooth these days, and has had an injury history. Having Jordan would stretch defenses and allow Robinson more room for rushing.

Idk how much money the Jags have in free agency but that can be a nice offense.

QB- Lawerence, RB- Robinson, Receivers- free agent WR, Chark, Shenault, and Brevin.

 

[Dwinstitles]

Gmen taking greg

 

[canecrazy23]

couple of things

1. if this kid has developed this much in a year here, we may have finally turned the training staff bugaboo
2. as we all watched with TB - a 4 man line that can get to the QB will still win Super Bowls long into the future
while offenses may change, a DL of 4 haunting a QB down after down is the best Defense
a DE that is physical and finishes, is the most prized possession

he's a top 15 player
Rosseau is top 20 b/c possibility

Rosseau is bigger and better and will be picked before Phillips.

 

[HighSeas]

from the most well-regarded evaluator of pass rushers on the internetz

 

[Shogungts]

from the most well-regarded evaluator of pass rushers on the internetz

No issue with Phillips ahead of Rousseau, but Roche ahead of Rousseau? Don't get me wrong, I think Roche is great but I thought Rousseau already looked better than Roche and it seems like Rousseau has more potential as well.