2021 Draft

BoxingRobes

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I know. I posted that mock here.

I have Tutu projected as a rotational slot in the NFL. He can be the 4th/5th WR for a high-powered spread like Hardman for the Chiefs and McKenzie for the Bills. Insane to put a guy like that in the 1st over legit starter types like Bateman, Wallace or Marshall. As an undersized slot Tutu has no business going before Rondale or Elijah Moore.

It also shows a total lack of understanding about the Packers scheme and roster. They have a satellite back in Tyler Ervin who they used as a motion guy and space player, not a downfield receiver. Their actual WRs need to be bigger guys who can block either tight in-line (Lazard+ESB) or on the perimeter for screens (MVS). I keep seeing people bashing the Packers for not drafting a WR and those people clearly don't understand the way that scheme functions. They're not an offense that just lines up and tries to win 1on1s on the perimeter. The rare times they do try to do that it's with formations that scheme 1on1s for their target hog Adams. A 1st rd WR would've (will be) been as big a waste for them as a 1st rd QB, only without the long-term upside.

MeCole Hardman has been more of a WR3 type, was a 2nd Rounder and 5th WR off the board. McKenzie the 24th WR off the board...that seems like a "if things break poorly" for Atwell as a pro...a 200 yard WR, all purpose type contributor. That's a wide range of outcomes, IMO, which is what I said in my post. These types make teams and if they are drafted too late, end up outperforming many drafted ahead of them. Even Isaiah McKenzie has outperformed 10 or more WRs picked ahead of him. Even your boy Scott Miller, 35th WR off the board, has outperformed a ridiculous number of WRs drafted ahead of him.

I don't think he's actually a R1 WR either, but WR21 seems way too low. If he were to get drafted that low (its possible)...idk, I think he would outperform a lot of guys ahead of him if we re-evaluated in 2-3 years post-draft.
 
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HighSeas

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MeCole Hardman has been more of a WR3 type, was a 2nd Rounder and 5th WR off the board. McKenzie the 24th WR off the board...that seems like a "if things break poorly" for Atwell as a pro...a 200 yard WR, all purpose type contributor. That's a wide range of outcomes, IMO, which is what I said in my post. These types make teams and if they are drafted too late, end up outperforming many drafted ahead of them. Even Isaiah McKenzie has outperformed 10 or more WRs picked ahead of him. Even your boy Scott Miller, 35th WR off the board, has outperformed a ridiculous number of WRs drafted ahead of him.

I don't think he's actually a R1 WR either, but WR21 seems way too low. If he were to get drafted that low (its possible)...idk, I think he would outperform a lot of guys ahead of him if we re-evaluated in 2-3 years post-draft.
That's my fantasy rank not NFL rank, and it will drop lower as I still have more guys to look at. Players like Atwell have no fantasy upside. Would I draft him for an actual team before Sage Surratt, Nico Collins, Javon McKinley or Branden Mack? Sure, but those guys have a chance to become ballwinners even if bust is the most likely outcome.

---
PFF released their draft guide and this is their analysis of Brevin Jordan:

  • Below-average ball skills; 11-of-33 on career contested catches. Lot of body catches.
  • Catch radius isn't near that of others in this class. Not a red-zone-type weapon
  • Barely any inline experience. Blocking is a TBD.
  • Season grade (Fr-Jr): 61.6-70.9-74.1
4th round projection

Again I'll repeat that he has a lot of issues on film and could have addressed those concerns if he returned. His PFF grade showed a positive trajectory where another year could've meant a big leap. He's one of the youngest players in the draft. The opportunity cost and risk for returning is low, with the chance to be in the 1st-2nd range in a weak class. @gogeta4
 

HighSeas

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Mandy Rose Reaction GIF by WWE
 

Poptimus

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PFF has some bizarre calculus behind some of its ratings. If you watch the tape and come up with the opinion that Brevin Jordan is a 4th round talent, stop watching football. He’d be a steal in the 4th round, but I’m fairly certain that’ll never happen.

Rousseau and Phillips are going in the first round and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dolphins are Rousseau’s floor at #18, but I expect he goes top 15.
 

pacusmc

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Mel Kiper has neither going in the top 20 and has Parsons going 9h overall. How this man still has a job is beyond me.
He’s literally had a job for like 25 years while being wrong lat least 75% of the time.
That has to be some kind of a record.
 

Poptimus

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Mel Kiper has neither going in the top 20 and has Parsons going 9h overall. How this man still has a job is beyond me.
He’s literally had a job for like 25 years while being wrong lat least 75% of the time.
That has to be some kind of a record.
Parsons is now linked to hazing at Penn State. In this day and age, that will drop him out of the top 10. I can see him falling to 20 or so.
 

PatrickCane

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Parsons is now linked to hazing at Penn State. In this day and age, that will drop him out of the top 10. I can see him falling to 20 or so.
Parsons is not a natural LB. He was just bigger/faster/stronger than everyone else on the field when he played. He won't get away with that in the NFL. Maybe he can be a rush LB in a 3/4? I like linebackers with instincts - that quickly diagnose plays and snuff them out, and he isn't that.
 

tsimonitis

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Parsons is now linked to hazing at Penn State. In this day and age, that will drop him out of the top 10. I can see him falling to 20 or so.
Someone on here said Parsons has lots of skeletons in his closet that will hurt his draft stock
 

BoxingRobes

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PFF has some bizarre calculus behind some of its ratings. If you watch the tape and come up with the opinion that Brevin Jordan is a 4th round talent, stop watching football. He’d be a steal in the 4th round, but I’m fairly certain that’ll never happen.

Rousseau and Phillips are going in the first round and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dolphins are Rousseau’s floor at #18, but I expect he goes top 15.

PFF had him as the pre-season TE3 and said the same exact thing about him. Their analysis on him did not change.

He's not a finished product. I've been comparing him to Jonnu Smith for a long time...Jonnu Smith wasn't some red zone threat coming out, but developed into one. Its all about fit and finish with Brevin, as had been outlined before. Get him to a team that utilizes two TE sets where he can move around a bit and he'll be fine. He probably doesn't contribute a ton in Year 1 and maybe only a little bit in Year 2, but he'll be fine as long as he gets drafted by a team that runs 12 personnel enough for him to matter.
 

Poptimus

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PFF had him as the pre-season TE3 and said the same exact thing about him. Their analysis on him did not change.

He's not a finished product. I've been comparing him to Jonnu Smith for a long time...Jonnu Smith wasn't some red zone threat coming out, but developed into one. Its all about fit and finish with Brevin, as had been outlined before. Get him to a team that utilizes two TE sets where he can move around a bit and he'll be fine. He probably doesn't contribute a ton in Year 1 and maybe only a little bit in Year 2, but he'll be fine as long as he gets drafted by a team that runs 12 personnel enough for him to matter.
What round do you see Brevin going? He’s too talented to drop to the 4th round IMO. I’d be more surprised he drops to the 4th than if he goes late 2nd.
 

RC26

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Brevin will test well. Earliest I could see mid 2nd but my money would be late 2nd/early 3rd.
 

BoxingRobes

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What round do you see Brevin going? He’s too talented to drop to the 4th round IMO. I’d be more surprised he drops to the 4th than if he goes late 2nd.

I've said it before. Top 100. I think he's a 3rd round kind of pick. Guys of his type usually go in that range. But, as has been stated before, he will likely have a limited number of teams really interested in him. But the TE class is pretty light, too. While there are some years only 3 or 4 TEs go in the first three rounds, its not abnormal for 5-8 to be drafted in the first three rounds. If you tell me he is TE3, he's definitely getting drafted before Day 2 is over. You tell me he's TE5, fine, I still think that sneaks into Day 2 somewhere in the 3rd Round. If you tell me he's like TE8, I think thats not a great ranking.

If you look at Miami TEs...Herndon was drafted at pick 107 but was injured and didn't participate in the pre-draft process. Njoku was a R1 guy, but a freak athlete. Walford was an early 3rd. Jimmy Graham was a 3rd rounder. Kevin Everett was a 3rd Rounder. And our greats were 1st rounders. I think it'd be weird to see Brevin Jordan fall to Day 3. He's got some flaws, but our TEs tend to get drafted pretty high, even with flaws.

If you look at players Brevin comps to either in player type or athletic profile, Jonnu was a 3rd rounder, guys like Gerald Everett and Lance Kendricks were Day 2 guys. idk man, its not like he's an unproductive bum either. Finished his career as a 2nd Team All-Conference. Age 18 Breakout Player (99th percentile)...it means less for a TE and the threshold is a bit lower, but its something to note. College dominator rating in the 90th percentile. If you compare him to Kyle Pitts this year, Brevin had a pretty close target share (13.9 to 14.2), higher catch rate (71.7 to 64.2 - he's got a career catch rate around 70%...averaged right around 15ypc over his age 19 and 20 seasons (career 78th percentile).

The film shows some warts, and he's got some injury concerns...but he's an uber productive player when he's on the field.
 

HighSeas

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PFF has some bizarre calculus behind some of its ratings. If you watch the tape and come up with the opinion that Brevin Jordan is a 4th round talent, stop watching football. He’d be a steal in the 4th round, but I’m fairly certain that’ll never happen.

Rousseau and Phillips are going in the first round and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dolphins are Rousseau’s floor at #18, but I expect he goes top 15.
Do you disagree that Jordan is good at contested catches, catch radius, blocking? Cause that's the evaluation. 25% contested catch rate as a Junior is not good.
PFF had him as the pre-season TE3 and said the same exact thing about him. Their analysis on him did not change.

He's not a finished product. I've been comparing him to Jonnu Smith for a long time...Jonnu Smith wasn't some red zone threat coming out, but developed into one. Its all about fit and finish with Brevin, as had been outlined before. Get him to a team that utilizes two TE sets where he can move around a bit and he'll be fine. He probably doesn't contribute a ton in Year 1 and maybe only a little bit in Year 2, but he'll be fine as long as he gets drafted by a team that runs 12 personnel enough for him to matter.
Not really. His red zone utility came on schemed plays that got him the ball in open areas. Much like Jordan has been used as an underneath option not a guy who wins the ball 1on1. Arthur Smith is a red zone wizard.
I've said it before. Top 100. I think he's a 3rd round kind of pick. Guys of his type usually go in that range. But, as has been stated before, he will likely have a limited number of teams really interested in him. But the TE class is pretty light, too. While there are some years only 3 or 4 TEs go in the first three rounds, its not abnormal for 5-8 to be drafted in the first three rounds. If you tell me he is TE3, he's definitely getting drafted before Day 2 is over. You tell me he's TE5, fine, I still think that sneaks into Day 2 somewhere in the 3rd Round. If you tell me he's like TE8, I think thats not a great ranking.

If you look at Miami TEs...Herndon was drafted at pick 107 but was injured and didn't participate in the pre-draft process. Njoku was a R1 guy, but a freak athlete. Walford was an early 3rd. Jimmy Graham was a 3rd rounder. Kevin Everett was a 3rd Rounder. And our greats were 1st rounders. I think it'd be weird to see Brevin Jordan fall to Day 3. He's got some flaws, but our TEs tend to get drafted pretty high, even with flaws.

If you look at players Brevin comps to either in player type or athletic profile, Jonnu was a 3rd rounder, guys like Gerald Everett and Lance Kendricks were Day 2 guys. idk man, its not like he's an unproductive bum either. Finished his career as a 2nd Team All-Conference. Age 18 Breakout Player (99th percentile)...it means less for a TE and the threshold is a bit lower, but its something to note. College dominator rating in the 90th percentile. If you compare him to Kyle Pitts this year, Brevin had a pretty close target share (13.9 to 14.2), higher catch rate (71.7 to 64.2 - he's got a career catch rate around 70%...averaged right around 15ypc over his age 19 and 20 seasons (career 78th percentile).

The film shows some warts, and he's got some injury concerns...but he's an uber productive player when he's on the field.
Yeah if you look at the depth of target this stat is meaningless. 2020 Jordan has 25% contested catch rate and 7.3% drop rate, Pitts has 57% contested catch rate and 0% drop rate with pretty much all his catches going for 1st downs or TDs.

They play a completely different game.
 

canegrad

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“There is concern among league scouts that Rousseau is a one-trick pony and purely an edge rusher who exploited college-level opponents.”

I don’t know jack about evaluating players but how are you going use this argument to ding someone. He doninitaed the completion at the college level so that is now a negative? And isn’t edge rushing ability a sought after trait. I’m so confused.
 

HighSeas

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“There is concern among league scouts that Rousseau is a one-trick pony and purely an edge rusher who exploited college-level opponents.”

I don’t know jack about evaluating players but how are you going use this argument to ding someone. He doninitaed the completion at the college level so that is now a negative? And isn’t edge rushing ability a sought after trait. I’m so confused.
You answered it yourself. He exploited overmatched interior linemen. His only games above 80 grade came against CMU, FSU and Duke. His pass rush grade on the edge was 71.3. Most of his success and production came on the inside winning reps early with his length and athleticism. He hasn't shown edge rush, power, run defense or counters, and he has an injury history.

We really gonna pretend like 16 sacks is the only thing that matters with him? The questions are legitimate.
 

BoxingRobes

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Do you disagree that Jordan is good at contested catches, catch radius, blocking? Cause that's the evaluation. 25% contested catch rate as a Junior is not good.

Not really. His red zone utility came on schemed plays that got him the ball in open areas. Much like Jordan has been used as an underneath option not a guy who wins the ball 1on1. Arthur Smith is a red zone wizard.

Yeah if you look at the depth of target this stat is meaningless. 2020 Jordan has 25% contested catch rate and 7.3% drop rate, Pitts has 57% contested catch rate and 0% drop rate with pretty much all his catches going for 1st downs or TDs.

They play a completely different game.

I'm not drafting Jordan to win contested catches. He's a small TE, he's not going to have a large catch radius and I think he's a better blocker than you've presented. He's a move TE...like Jonnu, he will eventually be schemed in the red zone and become an efficient player in that area of the field. I'm not sure what "not really" is in reference to, but 17 targets (5th most by a TE), 10 grabs (5th most by a TE), and 8 TDs in the red zone (2nd most by a TE behind Kelce) is pretty damn good, idc if you're winning contested catches or not. Where is Jonnu winning...in the place he always wins - the place Brevin wins...underneath.

As for Kyle Pitts...yeah, they play a completely different game and both are uber productive. So what? Pitts is a contested catch guy, Jordan is a YAC guy.

PFF, who called Jordan a Round 4 player literally called him TE3 (like they did in the pre-season) three weeks ago.


I know you know...you're a smart guy and well read...but PFF's baby statistically when it comes to TE is yards per route run, from their recent article where they still rank him as TE3

TIGHT END​

  1. Kyle Pitts, Florida
  2. Pat Freiermuth, Penn State
  3. Brevin Jordan, Miami (FL)
  4. Hunter Long, Boston College
  5. Tony Poljan, Virginia
We are not the biggest fans of drafting tight ends highly. They are oftentimes products of scheme. If they are incapable of beating man coverage from a safety, they can easily be taken out of games by opposing defenses. Florida's Kyle Pitts is different in that regard. Even if you just considered him a wide receiver, he’d still be one of the top prospects in the class with the ability he’s already shown to separate against corners. Get him matched up on a linebacker or a safety, and it’s game over. He averaged 4.91 yards per route when Florida saw man coverage this season. The next closest tight end was Brevin Jordan at 2.93 yards.

FWIW - Pitts is my TE1. I want him on the Jaguars catching passes from Trevor Lawrence. But even in PFF's baby stat...Brevin - despite flaws - excels in YPRR.
 
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HighSeas

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Yeah I don't like how they use YPRR as their basis of the receiving grades. It's a very context-dependent statistic where WRs in play action/wide zone schemes that get schemed crossers against zone will feast - guys like Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen and Corey Davis. And WRs who run a lot of decoy routes or who aren't in the progression get dinged for it.

I don't think there's any doubt that Jordan is the 2nd best receiving TE in the draft, unless you just want your TE to run stick/option routes in which case Long is your guy. It doesn't mean there aren't a lot of warts in his game.

I'm not sure what "not really" is in reference to, but 17 targets (5th most by a TE), 10 grabs (5th most by a TE), and 8 TDs in the red zone (2nd most by a TE behind Kelce) is pretty damn good, idc if you're winning contested catches or not. Where is Jonnu winning...in the place he always wins - the place Brevin wins...underneath.
Not really a red zone threat in the sense that defenses are concerned about him individually in that area of the field. He's not winning many contested catches. Getting a lot of production on leak plays isn't something to tout imo. Teams that covet Jordan/Jonnu aren't thinking about that as an area where they add value.
 

DMoney

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Brevin's never going to be a big contested-catch guy because of his size. I am, however, bullish on his blocking potential as a move TE. He is built the right way with a strong lower-body and flexibility, and he's shown plenty of flashes. I would never consider him a soft player.
 

BoxingRobes

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Yeah I don't like how they use YPRR as their basis of the receiving grades. It's a very context-dependent statistic where WRs in play action/wide zone schemes that get schemed crossers against zone will feast - guys like Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen and Corey Davis. And WRs who run a lot of decoy routes or who aren't in the progression get dinged for it.

I don't think there's any doubt that Jordan is the 2nd best receiving TE in the draft, unless you just want your TE to run stick/option routes in which case Long is your guy. It doesn't mean there aren't a lot of warts in his game.


Not really a red zone threat in the sense that defenses are concerned about him individually in that area of the field. He's not winning many contested catches. Getting a lot of production on leak plays isn't something to tout imo. Teams that covet Jordan/Jonnu aren't thinking about that as an area where they add value.
You wouldn't be concerned with a guy that is targeted at a high rate, catches the ball at a high (enough) rate, and scores pretty much every time he touches the ball in the red zone?

You sir, are Todd Wash.

Seriously though, the Titans put teams away when they went to Jonnu in the red zone. Schemed him open on play action plenty, got him just a little space between defenders and let him YAC it into the endzone, too...but just because he doesn't get a ton of contested catch opportunities, doesn't mean he's incapable.

https%3A%2F%2Fblackandteal.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fimagn-images%2F2017%2F07%2F14978927-850x560.jpeg


(Wingard stinks, but its contested!)
 

DTP

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For the right team, Brevin Jordan can be a difference maker. You can’t send him up the seam and lob 50/50 balls to him. That’s not his game. But after watching Green Bay and Kansas City both scheme open a ton of underneath throws and rely on their receivers picking up yards after catch, I couldn’t help but think Jordan could really kill teams in that kind of system.
 
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