Do not reply to me I will eat your sh-t.
This isn't your typical "year 3" roster. There's almost 90 scholarship players with high-profile stars at every position. It's as healthy and deep of a team as we've had since at least the Shannon era. No Trevor Lawrence, no Notre Dame...if we can't WTACC this year then what's it going to take?
How does my sh-t taste?
We have the 15th best blue chip ratio. Sounds to me like we should finish 15th in the country if everything goes chalk. Which it won't. The concept of "we will be favored in 10 games so if we don't go 10-0 in those games we underachieved or there will be **** to pay" is idiotic fanboy stuff. For example, if you have a 75% chance of winning a game, and an 80% chance of winning another game, and a 50% chance of winning a 3rd tough game (say, UNC where we are actually an underdog right now), what is the likelihood that you will win all three games? It's only 30%. Now do that for our whole schedule. ****, even take Alabama and UNC out and see how likely it is that we mathematically go 10-0. Spoiler: it's very unlikely. See how likely it is that a team that has a 90% chance to win each game actually goes 12-0. It's like 28%. That's right. If you go into every game with a 90% chance to win there is still just over a 1/4 chance you win them all. And NO ONE ever has a 90% chance in each and every game. And win the ACC? You aren't even factoring in what other teams will do this year.
There is a reason going undefeated is so hard, even when you are much better than every team on your schedule. Why a Syracuse can beat a Clemson, why it's so hard to get through your conference unscathed, etc. You need to not just be better every week, you need to be a dominant team that is MUCH better than their opponents, AND you need to be LUCKY to survive the days when things get weird.
It's really, really hard to avoid a significant mathematical deviation week in and week out. You hope that you survive it when it happens, and you hope it happens to your better opponents more than it happens to you. Then you have a chance to actually over-achieve. How often does a team's schedule match the money line?
The whole throwing down the gauntlet is July is just dumb too. If Clemson has injuries at QB and elsewhere and we beat them by a point does that make the coaching staff instant geniuses? Conversely if we get the injury bug and lose King, Bolden and two CB's and get caught does that mean they blew it? Let's watch this season play it out. There will be 1000 data points.
I'd love to play UF this year. I think we'd beat their ***, even though they have a much higher "BCR" than we do. Whatever.
Also the "blue-chip ratio" is an incredibly misguided statistic. First of all a disporoptionate amount of our top end talent are freshmen including all of our 5-stars. But they count as much as some 5-star seniors at Bama. More importantly, and (end thread here) these fraudulent ranking services rank the 32nd best recruit and the 300th highest ranked recruit both four-stars. That's like saying a late first round pick in the NFL Draft is as valuable as an UFA a team signs after the draft. Think about that. Dumb. So in other words, this thread is worthless. The BCR is silly. Be more thoughtful. Go Canes.
