What the First Round of the College Playoffs Tells Us

[razrcane]

I learned today two things: 1)that speed is STILL the number one factor in college ball. 2) turnovers decide bowl games

Oregon defense was shredded in some ways, but their speed eliminated big plays and helped generate tons of turnovers. Obviously offensively they were freakish.

TCU has speed EVERYWHERE and absolutely demolished the number 1 defense in the SEC on offense, and their defensive speed stifled a mediocre QB.

OSU has a more team speed than Bama, particularly in their front.

The lesson is the same as the one Jimmy Johnson taught us 30 years ago. It's the same lesson Gary Patterson lives by: recruit the fastest best athletes who are used to touching the football, and find a home for them. Oregon does it, TCU does it. It works unbelievably well in Miami, and you don't have to fight over and pay the blue chip recruits.

Funny you mention turnovers, because that right there is no joke and no game proved that more then Oregon vs FSU earlier. That was a close game until Cook's two fumbles, which by the way were both on first down earning plays of 10 and 15 yards. FSU was moving the ball just fine on OU, but those two fumbles completely took the life out of them and then the rout was on. People see that score and think the game was never in question, but that was not the case at all.

The FSU Defense gave up the most points and most yards in the history of the Rose Bowl game. I think the fumbles were critical, but Oregon was scoring at will anyway.

No doubt, but it looked like they were about to go back and forth for a very entertaining game not FSU fumbling to blow their rape whistle. As you said, turnovers they are important. Cook doesn't fumble twice and the headlines are way different, the game is close, Oregon still wins and then FSU whines they got screwed on on the O'Leary no call in the end zone.

But football doesn't work that way. No sport does. The game is played on the field. And what happened tonight was instead of having a "back n forth" battle, the ****** team turned the ball over a billion times. The ghosts of kickers past caused them to miss a field goal. Jameis totally botched the 4th down option play too. On top of that, the Heisman winner and his crazy offense were freakishly perfect executing.

And btw, FSU turns the ball over a ton, it's what they are as an overrated, mostly lucky team playing in a terrible conference with a JOKE schedule.

I know it may seem hard for me to be impartial, but there is no way in **** Jameis Winston is anything but a day 2 or 3 late round draft pick. He doesn't do anything particularly well. His footwork is terrible, he can't read a defense, he's inaccurate, he doesn't sell play action well, and he lumbers as a runner, and he turns the ball over a ton.

Good teams don't turn the ball over 4 times in a bowl game. Sorry.

Guess you've never seen the 87 Fiesta Bowl

 

[FullyERicht]

Funny you mention turnovers, because that right there is no joke and no game proved that more then Oregon vs FSU earlier. That was a close game until Cook's two fumbles, which by the way were both on first down earning plays of 10 and 15 yards. FSU was moving the ball just fine on OU, but those two fumbles completely took the life out of them and then the rout was on. People see that score and think the game was never in question, but that was not the case at all.

The FSU Defense gave up the most points and most yards in the history of the Rose Bowl game. I think the fumbles were critical, but Oregon was scoring at will anyway.

No doubt, but it looked like they were about to go back and forth for a very entertaining game not FSU fumbling to blow their rape whistle. As you said, turnovers they are important. Cook doesn't fumble twice and the headlines are way different, the game is close, Oregon still wins and then FSU whines they got screwed on on the O'Leary no call in the end zone.

But football doesn't work that way. No sport does. The game is played on the field. And what happened tonight was instead of having a "back n forth" battle, the ****** team turned the ball over a billion times. The ghosts of kickers past caused them to miss a field goal. Jameis totally botched the 4th down option play too. On top of that, the Heisman winner and his crazy offense were freakishly perfect executing.

And btw, FSU turns the ball over a ton, it's what they are as an overrated, mostly lucky team playing in a terrible conference with a JOKE schedule.

I know it may seem hard for me to be impartial, but there is no way in **** Jameis Winston is anything but a day 2 or 3 late round draft pick. He doesn't do anything particularly well. His footwork is terrible, he can't read a defense, he's inaccurate, he doesn't sell play action well, and he lumbers as a runner, and he turns the ball over a ton.

Good teams don't turn the ball over 4 times in a bowl game. Sorry.

Guess you've never seen the 87 Fiesta Bowl

Who won that game??????

Jesus the stupidity of our fanbase is astounding.

 

[razrcane]

The FSU Defense gave up the most points and most yards in the history of the Rose Bowl game. I think the fumbles were critical, but Oregon was scoring at will anyway.

No doubt, but it looked like they were about to go back and forth for a very entertaining game not FSU fumbling to blow their rape whistle. As you said, turnovers they are important. Cook doesn't fumble twice and the headlines are way different, the game is close, Oregon still wins and then FSU whines they got screwed on on the O'Leary no call in the end zone.

But football doesn't work that way. No sport does. The game is played on the field. And what happened tonight was instead of having a "back n forth" battle, the ****** team turned the ball over a billion times. The ghosts of kickers past caused them to miss a field goal. Jameis totally botched the 4th down option play too. On top of that, the Heisman winner and his crazy offense were freakishly perfect executing.

And btw, FSU turns the ball over a ton, it's what they are as an overrated, mostly lucky team playing in a terrible conference with a JOKE schedule.

I know it may seem hard for me to be impartial, but there is no way in **** Jameis Winston is anything but a day 2 or 3 late round draft pick. He doesn't do anything particularly well. His footwork is terrible, he can't read a defense, he's inaccurate, he doesn't sell play action well, and he lumbers as a runner, and he turns the ball over a ton.

Good teams don't turn the ball over 4 times in a bowl game. Sorry.

Guess you've never seen the 87 Fiesta Bowl

Who won that game??????

Jesus the stupidity of our fanbase is astounding.

You stated good teams don't turn the ball over four times in a bowl game..my point was that our 86 team was a good team and did just that....you didn't say good teams don't turn the ball over and WIN. I think your statement was somewhat idiotic hence the reason I replied. If you say the 86 team was not that good there would be a host of others including JJ that would dispute that.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

I've emphasized this many times previously. Once it reaches the ultimate level the team with superior regular season pass defense statistics generally wins:

Florida State 7.1 YPA
Oregon 6.6 YPA

Ohio State 5.8 YPA
Alabama 6.4 YPA

The national champion is generally in the Top 10 in defensive YPA during the regular season. Ohio State at 7th is the only one of these teams that qualifies.

Florida State's defense obviously collapsed this season compared to recent years. It hasn't been as well publicized that Alabama's defense is a shell of former levels, particularly the unbelievable 4.3 YPA allowed during the national championship season culminating with the bowl rout over LSU.

The 6.6 for Oregon would be fairly weak for a national champion but not unprecedented. Auburn in 2010 was worse than that.

This is where it gets interesting, the vital YPPA Differential category:

Ohio State

Defense 5.8
Offense 9.2

Net +3.4

Oregon

Defense 6.6
Offense 10.0

Net +3.4

Those are excellent differentials, tied for best in the country. For reference, Alabama was +2.4 and Florida State only +1.2. Last season Florida State posted a fantastic +4.9, second offensively and number one defensively.

BTW, the Canes were very good this year at +2.0 net. This stuff explains quite a bit, but not everything. Useful boost toward clarity. I don't have enough energy to research how many teams have finished at .500 or worse with a net differential like that. Trust me, it would be none or next to none. Both local teams found never-never land this season. The Dolphins won 6 games by double digits yet didn't make the playoffs nor finish above .500. That's next to impossible. There's so much parity in the NFL that any team capable of winning by double digits so often invariably grabs its share of tighter victories.

On edit: option teams almost always have high offensive YPA due to seldom passing but getting chunk plays when they do. It's possible some of those teams managed very good net but finished with weak records. For balanced teams it's virtually unheard of.

 

[Cane Dynasty]

I've emphasized this many times previously. Once it reaches the ultimate level the team with superior regular season pass defense statistics generally wins:

Florida State 7.1 YPA
Oregon 6.6 YPA

Ohio State 5.8 YPA
Alabama 6.4 YPA

The national champion is generally in the Top 10 in defensive YPA during the regular season. Ohio State at 7th is the only one of these teams that qualifies.

Florida State's defense obviously collapsed this season compared to recent years. It hasn't been as well publicized that Alabama's defense is a shell of former levels, particularly the unbelievable 4.3 YPA allowed during the national championship season culminating with the bowl rout over LSU.

The 6.6 for Oregon would be fairly weak for a national champion but not unprecedented. Auburn in 2010 was worse than that.

This is where it gets interesting, the vital YPPA Differential category:

Ohio State

Defense 5.8
Offense 9.2

Net +3.4

Oregon

Defense 6.6
Offense 10.0

Net +3.4

Those are excellent differentials, tied for best in the country. For reference, Alabama was +2.4 and Florida State only +1.2. Last season Florida State posted a fantastic +4.9, second offensively and number one defensively.

BTW, the Canes were very good this year at +2.0 net. This stuff explains quite a bit, but not everything. Useful boost toward clarity. I don't have enough energy to research how many teams have finished at .500 or worse with a net differential like that. Trust me, it would be none or next to none. Both local teams found never-never land this season. The Dolphins won 6 games by double digits yet didn't make the playoffs nor finish above .500. That's next to impossible. There's so much parity in the NFL that any team capable of winning by double digits so often invariably grabs its share of tighter victories.

On edit: option teams almost always have high offensive YPA due to seldom passing but getting chunk plays when they do. It's possible some of those teams managed very good net but finished with weak records. For balanced teams it's virtually unheard of.

How much rep did you bet today booger?

(someone please quote this post because I can almost guarantee this psussy has me on ignore for the *** whoopins I've given him)

 

[Canes101]

Did someone compare butch davis with urbam, butch aint half the coach urban is

 

[bbcane]

If some of you have been reading my concerns since Coach Golden arrived, it was one common theme: is he good enough to get us through the new version of College football? I don't really care about being "good" or 10-2 or consistently "in the hunt." The new environment dictates that you have to win mostly all (or all) of your games in the regular season. It then means you go on about a 3-game playoff: Conference championship, Semifinal Round and finally a Championship.

What today's games showed me, or at least provided further evidence to support, is that Jimmies and Joes may still be more important than Xs and Os, but good coaches will be more important than ever to win Championships going forward. You need strategists in addition to great talent. The Ohio State game is a serious message. In the absence of strategists, you need systems that are likely to create mismatches and grind out a particular style of victory. Think about the NFL playoffs. Defense and 3rd down conversions will consistently win meaningful games.

The College Football landscape is more difficult than ever. Coach Golden's history shows an inability to win meaningful games against equally talented or superior (in terms of talent) football teams. His record against teams that finish in the Top 25 has been talked about for a long time. We sometimes read arguments about how "we're making progress" or in the direction to have enough talent to compete in our conference. This isn't another Al Golden thread. This is a "what do we need to compete" thread.

Today was more evidence that we are headed in the wrong direction. The formula has changed.

Speaking of stratagies. Are most of the Mia fans, alumni, and hiring commitees still stuck on hiring pro set guys? IMO this o is great , but relies more on Jim and joe.

 

[TroubleChunks]

Did someone compare butch davis with urbam, butch aint half the coach urban is

Yeah, this thread should actually be worrying to those of those who want Butch. Butch didn't exactly scheme his way to victory. He got good athletes, made them better, and trained them in comparatively simple schemes that let their talent achieve results -- schemes that were simplified versions of pro-style offenses and defenses.

Will he hire a DC who gets good results against these spread variants? Will he hire an OC who USES one of these spread variants? Would he encourage the uptempo approach that simply destroyed FSU last night, but which makes the wholesale package substitutions of a pro-style offense impossible? I have no idea.

One thing that worries me a little less about the talent vs. scheme question, though, is from the 'Bama game. 'Bama may be more talented on paper, but they're BIG. Probably too big. A Butch-led team would stay fast, if nothing else.

 

[Billy D Williams]

To keep it simple, you need to be strong in the trenches OL and DLine. OL has to protect and open holes. DLine has to control the running game and keep pressure on QB. Next you need speed everywhere else. That is where we have a sizable advantage in SoFl. We got to flood the field with speed not body builders.

 

[skyman]

I already knew but it has become even that much clearer that we are soo behind the curve with regards to holding on to "pro style" while the spread is where it is at right now. Oregon's spread has them knocking on the door again but even more impressive is how Urban's system doesnt miss a beat no matter who is behind QB. Just plug n play. None of those Qb would be effective in prostyle, but in Urban system it is super easy. I dont even think the QB has to make a read at all. They have a million different runs or so it seems with plenty of window dressing, fly sweeps, High percentage WR screens, and low risk, high reward Deep ball. That is a majority of their playbook with a tweak here n there for opponent.

We need to get with the times, The spread is goin to win the National title again this year. We not only have bad leadership but even when we do our corching searches we have people who seem not to know enough about football making decisions. Last 2 searches the things I hear we are looking for is pro style to cater to NFL roots (WTF?!), even the NFL is embracing spread and its concepts. Good players find their way to the league, we need to run a system that perfectly caters to our talent and will have us winning games. I wouldnt call it cutting edge anymore because the Spread has been here for awhile. We are just wayyyy behind

 

[Gatorhater]

It has always been about coaching, with the exception of Coker. That team was one of a kind talent wise but still had great assistants and Reed and Ken as on the filed coaches. Howard said it and that has not changed--Miami just needs a coach. We destroyed the power of the big traditional conferences back in the day. Now they have taken it back by changes in TV money payments since the BCS. That said, we can do it again with proper coaching. Do we need to capture bigger share of So Fl talent, **** yes. Do we need to make adjustments during game, **** yes. But most of all we need to bring fear back to the field. LSU is done but a few years ago they scared people. Bama has peaked but the same was true. Teams were afraid to play them like they use to be afraid to play us. OSU in its "old days" had that "hit them in the mouth and see if the still catch passes" attitude. Urban brought it back. Ducks has gotten a little nastier and that has helped them more than all the tempo. Defense remains the key and pain and fear remain the crucial defensive factor. Pain bring exhaustion and exhaustion bring fear. We have given the heritage of the THE U the weak and the timid, that has to change. Then we can talk X's and O's.

 

[mianjomar]

Lucine, I always enjoy your post. What I see is that we will never have to compete with OSU for quarterbacks. Tim Tebow, Cam, Driskel at Fl. And the three Brutes at OSU are not the kind of QB we take. Did the South Fl. Kid make the right choice? Does Miami need to change?

 

[Miami82]

Great post. Al Golden is several levels below this brand of big boy college football. Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Jimbo Fisher, those are real professional football coaches. No bull**** with them. All results. Even the second tier on display recently, your Gary Pattersons, Mark Dantonios, Art Briles are master strategists, talent developers, and managers of top staffs around the country. Real pros.

Miami can't just continue to luck into these great coaches, like they had from Schnelly to Butch, where it was a coach and a team that had two middle fingers in the air despite administration constantly fighting with the athletic department. Everyone needs to be on the same page with a goal of creating the best brand of football possible. You don't see the level of bull**** that Miami has with these old money institutions. You've got the entire operation on the same page. Having an administration that cares about having a winning program is paramount. Allocating resources to maximize what little infrastructure the school does have, having the wherewithal to seek out the best and brightest up-and-coming coaches (because we can't compete with paying big boy coaching salaries) to use this as a stepping stone to more money or the pro game is vital, but that only comes with having an interest in having an elite program and that clearly comes from the suits.

As for the structure of the roster, there is nothing around the country that this school can't get within two counties. QB, OL, DL, doesn't matter, its all here and all local, and its enough to supply nearly every prominent school in the country with a few players and thrifty mid-tier and even bottom feeders with their best players and earliest contributors. You just need someone that understands this (our best coaches understood this before they even arrived) and we'll be fine from a talent perspective. Miami is as talent deficient today as we've been in going on 40 years and Miami is still producing first round picks and has a ton of NFL talent (Top 5 in total players) despite a decade of poo results). Anyone worth their salt should be able to develop these players into something remotely competitive in today's college football landscape.

Miami didn't luck into anything. Those coaches were sought out for a specific reason. They were innovators, at least Schnell to Dennison were.

 

[Insanecane]

Oh please. Jameis Winston was not a "young" talent.

Jameis was fine in that game. Cook and Rudolf in particular F**ed up.

Jameis turned the ball over twice, including one of the worst fumbles ever. That game wasn't about experience, it was about Oregon being a better team for a myriad of reasons.

I'll give you the fumble, but the other one was on Rudolf.JameisC/ATT YDS AVG TD INT QBR 29/45 348 7.7 1 1 44.1Qbr is low but the int is on Rudolf and that's a 64% competion rate. And we are getting off topic.

The INT was a wobbly duck that was behind Rudolf. What it again. He was terribly inaccurate all night, which is to be expected from the NCAA leader in INTs over 15 yards.

The ball was tipped at the line of scrimmage. Winston played a decent game. He just tried to do too much. His receivers did not help him either.

 

[Chuckles]

What I learned is that the meme of many of our posters that the third string QB is no good because he's third string may not be entirely accurate. ;-)

It isn't that the folks who say this don't know anything, it's that they don't know what they don't know.

 

[Miami82]

What I learned is that the meme of many of our posters that the third string QB is no good because he's third string may not be entirely accurate. ;-)

It isn't that the folks who say this don't know anything, it's that they don't know what they don't know.

They have 3 really good QB's. Jones is only going to get better. Whatever system Oscar uses, it works.

 

[sabrose]

In the read option there is more deception and its really 11 players on offense. In the pro set if the Qb hands the ball of he is no longer in the play hence 10 against 11. Its very hard to line up your Rb's in a pro set and run into 8 or 9 in the box. SO you better have a great passing QB a dominant Oline to succeed in the pro set.The demands on the qb to win with his arm are less with the read option and the threat of the QB running makes the defense susceptible to the long pass completion.

 

[LuCane]

In the read option there is more deception and its really 11 players on offense. In the pro set if the Qb hands the ball of he is no longer in the play hence 10 against 11. Its very hard to line up your Rb's in a pro set and run into 8 or 9 in the box. SO you better have a great passing QB a dominant Oline to succeed in the pro set.The demands on the qb to win with his arm are less with the read option and the threat of the QB running makes the defense susceptible to the long pass completion.

I don't agree with this. In a well-constructed pro set (which now has many spread elements), the field is legitimately stretched in both directions (horizontally and vertically). The QB isn't a meaningless player that makes it 10 vs 11. The QB is capable of hitting the seams, accurately throwing the ball to the sideline, and keeping the defenses stretched to their max.

Now, the problem in the college game is that you either have inaccurate QBs (this is less of a problem now than 10 years ago) or poor execution (this is still a problem because of average coaching). The answer is to have a nice combination of spread elements and power running game. The read-option is not a necessity and can just as easily struggle against defenses able to collapse the interior of the OL. The answer to that is what you saw Ohio State beautifully do last night: keep an Alabama-style defense continuously off balance and get fortunate enough to hit on some long plays. We all saw an incredibly coached game last night. That's part of the reason I created this thread.

 

[sfcane2]

If some of you have been reading my concerns since Coach Golden arrived, it was one common theme: is he good enough to get us through the new version of College football? I don't really care about being "good" or 10-2 or consistently "in the hunt." The new environment dictates that you have to win mostly all (or all) of your games in the regular season. It then means you go on about a 3-game playoff: Conference championship, Semifinal Round and finally a Championship.

What today's games showed me, or at least provided further evidence to support, is that Jimmies and Joes may still be more important than Xs and Os, but good coaches will be more important than ever to win Championships going forward. You need strategists in addition to great talent. The Ohio State game is a serious message. In the absence of strategists, you need systems that are likely to create mismatches and grind out a particular style of victory. Think about the NFL playoffs. Defense and 3rd down conversions will consistently win meaningful games.

The College Football landscape is more difficult than ever. Coach Golden's history shows an inability to win meaningful games against equally talented or superior (in terms of talent) football teams. His record against teams that finish in the Top 25 has been talked about for a long time. We sometimes read arguments about how "we're making progress" or in the direction to have enough talent to compete in our conference. This isn't another Al Golden thread. This is a "what do we need to compete" thread.

Today was more evidence that we are headed in the wrong direction. The formula has changed.

Ok, Good point. (sarcasm)

Seriously, this must be a joke. Does anyone really take Golden seriously. Why would we even consider him on a par with the top coaches in CFB.

On a somewhat related note, the funniest thing I thought about the Rose Bowl was how many people thought FSU would win the 2nd half. Anyone who has watched CFB knows that Helfrich is the master of 2nd half adjustments. They were dominant in the 2nd half of games. I was at the Rose Bowl and was funny watching Oregon exploit FSU's LBs all game.

I'm not entirely sure what this snarky response means. In an attempt to talk about college football and reduce Golden talk around here, my hope was to discuss how important a certain style of coach or style of play is important in the college football playoff landscape.

Sorry didn't mean to be snarky. What the semi's showed me is not just the strategic component that coaches need but the total commitment required. I never bought into the whole facilities argument but in some ways it's a reflection of the commitment required that extends to innovative strength, conditioning and nutrition program required to succeed. Also the thought that goes into evaluating recruits. Watching the games yesterday it really hit home how out of our depth UM is with Golden leading the program.

 

[BigDikCane]

Dammit mane... reading some of this issh has my head hurting...