What I'm looking for on Friday statistically

[OrangeBowlMagic]

The way you slow down a fast & unorthodox Offense like Wake's, it take the ball from them.

It forces their OC to go away from the gameplan & start calling their sequences more cautiously.

Mario is very familiar with Jake ****ert from when he was at Wash ST, he also has history with Rob Ezell from the Bama days. That should/could be a caveat to give Dawson & Heatherman some pretty good psychological insight into their tendencies as play callers.

If we win the turnover battle on Friday I don’t think it’s possible for the game to even be close, nevermind lose.

We haven’t lost a game where we had a plus turnover margin since Louisville in 2023.

All 3 losses in 2024 and 2025 we were even or negative in the turnover battle.

As a matter of fact, if you want to get really crazy, we are 23-6 in the last 2 years (2024 and 2025, not counting this year yet)

In the 26 wins, we are +21 turnovers.
In the 6 losses, we are -9 turnovers.

Don’t lose the turnover battle and we don’t lose the game. Been that way for over 2 seasons now.

 

[Pearson704]

When we have the football:

- 40+ points -- Only 2 teams averaged 40+ last year (4 if you round up and include Indiana and Utah at 39.5). Our team total is right at about 38. Wake is bad on defense. We need to drop 40 on them, period.
- 3.4+ points per drive -- Mario has talked several times about how the college game is seeing fewer possessions per game compared to prior years. The clock rules have a lot to do with that, but he's expanded on it talking about the need for explosives. This year, Miami has 7 plays of 40+ yards. Last year, in 16 games, we had 14. Explosive plays lead to points, and in games where possessions are limited, you need to score points every drive. 3.4 points per drive is easily a Top 5 mark in the country, I want it on Friday
- 7.0+ yards per play -- A favorite of Shannon Dawson's, in 2024 we led the country with 7.56 yards per play. If this is the best offense in America, and it might be, you go get 7.0+ per play against Wake Forest
- 15 plays of 10+ yards, 6 plays of 20+ yards, 3 plays of 30+ yards. -- Last year, Miami averaged 13.4 plays of 10+ yards, but only 4 plays of 20+ yards, and less than 2 plays of 30+ yards per game. Not good enough. We need to be more explosive.
- Snapping the ball no more than 25 seconds apart -- this one can be skewed if we get up late, but we are WAY too slow on offense. We need to increase the number of plays, and increase the pace. 25 seconds between plays ranked 39th fastest last year, so I'm not looking for some breakneck fast-paced operation, but Miami was 129th in pace last year. Even with Cam in 2024, we were 77th. We have to get much faster.

Our starters haven't played a full 3 quarters yet, and most games they won't need to.

The pace was a pleasant improvement last game. There was definitely some urgency and, as long as we continue to execute at a high level, I expect we'll continue to play fast. Our ceiling as a team will depend on OL development and how fast we can operate this season.

 

[Empirical Cane]

I think a "quicker pace" has just become the norm for offenses and people confuse "more plays" with a Chip Kelly-esque leap when he really first brought it on tbe scene.

"More snaps" = routine game plan today

I still believe though,a brutal tuff n fyzical ground game keeps the other O (and their tempo) off the field...that becomes a multi-pronged O + D strategy in one.

 

[Canesq]

We start slow on defense for whatever reason. Heatherman likes to play off and feel you out and then try to bow up in the redzone. Then he makes halftime adjustments and it’s over.

So expect them to march down the field on their first drive and get a fg or td and have 10 points at the half. Should be 21/24 - 10 at half and final score 45 - 17.

We were #4 in the country in 1st quarter scoring defense last season, at 2.2 points per 1Q allowed.

We were #3 in the country in 1st half scoring defense last season.

Pretty sure we gave up 3 TDs in the first quarter the entire season. 16 games.

Interesting. Felt like we got better as the game went on. So perhaps we’ll give up some yards and a couple of first downs but that’s it

 

[ThomasM]

The defense has heard all the negativity and noise. I think they’re going to come out with a fire under their *** and dominate. This is the perfect opportunity for Mario to prove he’s taken the next step and assert his dominance in the conference once and for all.

People need to relax on the D. Teams have been getting the ball out quick to avoid QB sacks and pressure. I'm just glad we aren't blitzing to get there when we won't get there anyway. We know teams are getting it out quick, and when that happens it shortens the area where they can throw the ball. Our D is doing just fine, giving up only 6 points in two games.

 

[The U is back to work]

I’d like to see some actual pressure from this high priced DL.

 

[QuattroCane]

We start slow on defense for whatever reason. Heatherman likes to play off and feel you out and then try to bow up in the redzone. Then he makes halftime adjustments and it’s over.

So expect them to march down the field on their first drive and get a fg or td and have 10 points at the half. Should be 21/24 - 10 at half and final score 45 - 17.

I think secretly we have a deal with the broadcasters of our games, if that game is 24-10 at the half, imagine the eyeballs that will get pulled in, lol!

 

[QuattroCane]

I think the bottom line is, especially based on our competition, the defense has looked underwhelming. Unfortunately, they’re being measured against last year’s defense and the havoc they were able to cause.
The season is shaping up very oddly at this point.
Wakes QB is nicked up, Central Michigan is not going to provide much of a test. Clemson just replaced their quarterback. And FSU is well… FSU.
Point is, it doesn’t look like we’re going to see an offense with a lot of potential until the end of the season.

 

[The U is back to work]

I think the bottom line is, especially based on our competition, the defense has looked underwhelming. Unfortunately, they’re being measured against last year’s defense and the havoc they were able to cause.
The season is shaping up very oddly at this point.
Wakes QB is nicked up, Central Michigan is not going to provide much of a test. Clemson just replaced their quarterback. And FSU is well… FSU.
Point is, it doesn’t look like we’re going to see an offense with a lot of potential until the end of the season.

It rarely works out like that, though. Usually some team will have a breakthrough game. Wake can score I just don’t think they can score more than 20-25 points on us and I don’t think they have a chance to keep us under 25 points

 

[No_Fly_Zone]

I get what you’re saying, but I look at teams that try the high-tempo thing and are there really any that were dominant championship teams? Sure they’re fun and flashy, but if you run into a team that can stop you, all you’re doing is speeding up putting your defense back on the field with little rest, which hurts your overall team. I love this offense so far. It’s fun but it’s still grounded and Mensah is completing 90% of throws. Obviously that won’t hold for the season, but it’s an absolute dagger to defensive morale and confidence when you systematically pick them apart.

I prefer to use tempo strategically to catch defenses off guard. Suddenly go fast and they start wondering if they have time to sub and what defense to run.

I’m not saying go berserk. We don’t need to be Alex Golesh. But instead of 130th in the country, which se were last year, can we get to 50th? We have a massive athletic advantage, the more plays you run, the more you can exploit that advantage.

We averaged just under 63 offensive snaps per game last season. That's well below average for college football. To @OrangeBowlMagic's point, we aren't advocating for a "high tempo" offense, but a better pace to increase snap count more consistent with the modern trend. Looking at this team, it's in our best interest to average something like 70-72 snaps per game (about average). If we can average ~7.0 yards per play with this offense (I think we can; we average ~7.4 with Cam), that translates to 49-63 extra yards per game. And those extra yards equate to extra points.

 

[htownkidd]

Add this to the list. This is a very concerning chart. Now, let’s be real, it’s a super small sample; and the level of competition is all over the place for various teams. So in Week 2, it is what it is. But in Week 6-7, we gotta be out of this area.

I would bet you every single team that’s won a national championship in the last 20 years was in the upper left quadrant. You have to generate pressure and you have to protect the passer. This is nowhere near good enough. Very interested to see how this goes from here.

View attachment 372846

My biggest knock currently. As you stated, only 2 games so not ringing the alarm or anything but underwhelmed with pass rush thus far considering what we have there and who we have faced. Let’s see where we are on this after these next 2 games heading into Clemson.

 

[Empirical Cane]

We averaged just under 63 offensive snaps per game last season. That's well below average for college football. To @OrangeBowlMagic's point, we aren't advocating for a "high tempo" offense, but a better pace to increase snap count more consistent with the modern trend. Looking at this team, it's in our best interest to average something like 70-72 snaps per game (about average). If we can average ~7.0 yards per play with this offense (I think we can; we average ~7.4 with Cam), that translates to 49-63 extra yards per game. And those extra yards equate to extra points.

O average yds per play is 15 right now.

Granted skewed due to competition level, but holy 1st downs Batman.

 

[swampcougar1]

Points allowed most important defensive stat imo. 6 allowed in 2 games underwhelming?

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

Points allowed most important defensive stat imo. 6 allowed in 2 games underwhelming?

Obviously not.

But there are underlying metrics that have my attention that we need to improve. And we haven’t played 2 games. We played 1 game and a scrimmage against a high school team. Literally. But yes, 6 points per game is obviously great. However, I need to see more pressure on the quarterback. Against Stanford and the high school, we have 6 TFLs. We’ve forced 0 turnovers. So yes, 6 points is great. But I’m not even looking at Stanford and Wake and the rest of the ACC. If we’re even challenged in more than 1 ACC game, I’ll be floored. I’m trying to win a natty.

I’ll be more focused on the defense than the offense this week. I know what I have on offense. A disgusting wagon who is gonna make every DC we play bite the curb. Can we create havoc on defense that’s commensurate?

 

[E1k]

 

[Trav]

I have concerns about the defense, I just hope I’m wrong.
And yes, I know the stats from last week.

I’ll say this much though if their, Wakes , pass defense doesn’t play significantly better they’re cooked.

Ahmmon did a good breakdown.. Lots of cover 3. Seams wide open. Unless our OL communication is horrible I think the offense will roll.

 

[Trav]

Underrated post.

I know people have PTSD from D’Onofrio’s “bend and break” system but good defenses make opponents execute over and over to score. Explosive plays mean everything in college football and nothing breaks a defense worse than giving up a 60 yard play because you got overly aggressive trying to stop a three yard gain.

Before some idiot quotes me and says “are you supposed to let teams just move up and down the field?” Of course not. It’s just the idea that if you’re faced with the decision of “should I risk giving up the long play to make a play that saves my defense three yards?” You protect against the big play and you live to fight another down.

College offenses, even the good ones, struggle to consistently move the ball by executing perfectly for ten+ plays. Even if they manage to move the ball between the 20’s, many offenses stall in the red zone where the defense doesn’t have to defend against the deep pass at all. Make your opponent have to execute multiple plays in a row and if they manage to do that, hold them to a field goal attempt.

D'oritos's defenses bent AND broke. We just didn't have the horses, and were insistent on playing 3-4 without a true nose. One season our starting safeties were AJ Highsmith and Kacy Rodgers. Seriously.

 

[Yoyo423]

I know, just win. We got it.

But how you win, and what you do when you win, can give us some clues about the overall trajectory and ceiling of a team. I think we're going to win a national championship this year, and teams have scares all the time, but I don't expect Wake to even look like they belong on the same field with us, at least when we have the ball.

So what am I looking for from a statistical standpoint on Friday night that will make me encouraged we are truly on our way to being one of the very best teams in America?

When we have the football:

- 40+ points -- Only 2 teams averaged 40+ last year (4 if you round up and include Indiana and Utah at 39.5). Our team total is right at about 38. Wake is bad on defense. We need to drop 40 on them, period.
- 3.4+ points per drive -- Mario has talked several times about how the college game is seeing fewer possessions per game compared to prior years. The clock rules have a lot to do with that, but he's expanded on it talking about the need for explosives. This year, Miami has 7 plays of 40+ yards. Last year, in 16 games, we had 14. Explosive plays lead to points, and in games where possessions are limited, you need to score points every drive. 3.4 points per drive is easily a Top 5 mark in the country, I want it on Friday
- 7.0+ yards per play -- A favorite of Shannon Dawson's, in 2024 we led the country with 7.56 yards per play. If this is the best offense in America, and it might be, you go get 7.0+ per play against Wake Forest
- 15 plays of 10+ yards, 6 plays of 20+ yards, 3 plays of 30+ yards. -- Last year, Miami averaged 13.4 plays of 10+ yards, but only 4 plays of 20+ yards, and less than 2 plays of 30+ yards per game. Not good enough. We need to be more explosive.
- Snapping the ball no more than 25 seconds apart -- this one can be skewed if we get up late, but we are WAY too slow on offense. We need to increase the number of plays, and increase the pace. 25 seconds between plays ranked 39th fastest last year, so I'm not looking for some breakneck fast-paced operation, but Miami was 129th in pace last year. Even with Cam in 2024, we were 77th. We have to get much faster.

When Wake has the ball:

- 17 points, max -- Again, context. If we give them a pick six, or some turnover deep, or they have 13 and score a TD with 5 seconds left against walk-ons when its 55-13, then I'll allow it. But our defense cannot allow more than 17 "real" points.
- Less than 4 yards per carry -- Wake has ran it well in their 2 games, they are 18th in the country in yards per carry, at 5.26. They are getting 194 yards per game on the ground. We held Stanford to 3.39, and remember QB sacks are rushing attempts in college football. So we got 0 sacks, meaning that's a true rushing number, 3.39 YPC. It's not skewed because we sacked the quarterback. We need to hold Wake under 4, and make them throw the ball from behind the sticks.
- Less than 55% completions -- This is a big one, so far this year, Wake is completing only 61% of their passes, good for 78th in America. We know our corners are banged up, we also think we'll have a lead in this game and be playing from ahead. So, if they have to throw it 40 times, can we shut it down to the tune of 55% completions? If we do, and hold them under 4 yards a carry, we win by 30.
- 1.50 points per drive or less -- That number usually ranks you about 15th nationally. If we're going to have a national championship defense, we hold Wake Forest to a number that equates to 15th nationally
- 5.0 Yards per play or less -- Again, a number that's about 20th nationally, year over year. I'm not expecting the 85 bears here, but I will feel very good about our defense if we can hold them under 5 a play. Obviously way early in the season, but Wake is 15th right now in yards per play. They got 8.22 against Akron, and 6.04 last week against Purdue. No reason to think we can't be a yard better than Purdue was.

Overall, Wake looks better on offense than they are on defense. I don't think a team like that has much of a chance against us. You're not going to beat us being one-dimensional, and if you do, I think the team who plays us close is one with an elite defense that can at least hold us in check, and a decent offense that can keep a game close. I just don't see being challenged much by a team that ranks 45th in yards per play allowed, and those 2 games were against Akron and Purdue's offenses.

I'll come back on Saturday and check in on how well we hit these, but I want to see Miami take their crowd out very early, let's do exactly what we did against Stanford and score 2 TDs in the first quarter, and drop 40+ on these dudes. They have given up 80% (!!!!!) completions in their first 2 games. EIGHTY. Akron went 28/33 and Purdue went 32/42. Mensah should be having target practice out there.

Update?

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

Update?

"NOT VERY GOOD!" *Spurrier voice*

Ugh, really gonna make me do this, are we?

1. 40+ points -- Welp, we all know we didn't get there. Missed that one

2. 3.4+ points per drive. We wound up at 2.82 for the game. Not good enough. Obviously, in the first half, we had 24 points on 5 drives. Beyond elite. Then added a TD on the 6th drive. 31 points on 6 drives, so 5.17, would be the best offense in the history of the sport. Sadly, we then went 5 straight drives without a point, to end at 2.82. Now, for some context, as we all sit here and feel like the world is collapsing beneath our feet, want to know what 2.82 would have ranked for the 2025 season? 21st in America. So, not a complete catastrophe, but certainly not the #1 offense in they country that we're shooting for

3. 7.0+ yards per play. We wound up at 5.56 yards per play, which isn't good. 5.56 would have been the 74th best number in the country last year for the full season. Very disappointing. We were well over this number in the first half, and we put up 300+ yards on 39 plays. But when you go 4 straight 3-and-outs and then a missed FG, it kinda craters this number.

4. 15 plays of 10+ yards, 6 plays of 20+ yards, 3 plays of 30+ yards. Another swing and a miss. We had 12 plays of 10+ yards, 4 plays of 20+ yards, and just 1 play of 30+ yards. Not nearly explosive enough.

5. Snapping the ball no more than 25 seconds apart. Another miss. We slowed down considerably in the 2nd half. I don't know the exact pace for the first half, but overall we're not going fast enough for my liking.

Defense 1. 17 points, max. They got 20. Miss.

2. Less than 4 yards a carry. We played the run exceptionally well. They really didn't even try to run the ball. This is the type of game script many of us expected, we were up 7-0, then 14-7, then 21-7, then 24-7. Not many teams are going to pound the rock with that type of deficit. So we did a great job in the run game. Their backs had 10 carries for 30 yards. Overall, as a team, when you factor in the QB runs and sacks, they ran the ball 16 times for 22 net yards. Elite performance, obviously.

3. Less than 55% completions. Lopez went 29/46, which is 63%. That's not good enough. That number ranks you about 80th best in the country for a season. Now, a little context. He threw the ball 46 times for 312 yards. That's only 6.2 a throw, which is a good number. For example, our defense last year allowed 6.3 an attempt. So we did allow him to complete more than I'd have liked, but the majority was short. And if we could tackle anyone, that number would've been even lower. So, didn't hit this one, but really not terrible.

4. 1.50 points per drive, or less. They scored 20 points on 11 drives, which is 1.82 points per drive. Not good enough for my goal, but not a bad number at all. 1.82 points per drive allowed ranked 28th last year. I said all off-season, if we can have a Top 10 offense and Top 30 defense, we're going to be a really good team. So, not quite good enough, IMO, but not a bad performance.

5. 5.0 yards per play or less. They got 5.39. So again, close, but not what I was expecting. 5.39 for the season ranks you as the 44th best defense in 2025. Actually, it'd be 1 spot ahead of the Ole Miss 2025 defense, and we know that wasn't good enough to win a championship. So, again, not horrendous, but not good enough.

One thing I did want to highlight that we talked about later in the thread was pressuring the QB. We pressured Lopez 44 times on about 50 dropbacks, which is insane. The highest number since Heatherman has been here. So we were able to generate a ton of pressure. But our coverage and especially tackling in the back end was not good enough. I hope the pressure numbers can continue while we hopefully get some DBs back healthy. We need Bryce back at Safety immediately and we need a rotation through the safety and nickel spots. You shouldn't have a true freshman playing every single snap like we did with Dunnigan. We gotta get healthy, ASAP.

 

[Yoyo423]

"NOT VERY GOOD!" *Spurrier voice*

Ugh, really gonna make me do this, are we?

1. 40+ points -- Welp, we all know we didn't get there. Missed that one

2. 3.4+ points per drive. We wound up at 2.82 for the game. Not good enough. Obviously, in the first half, we had 24 points on 5 drives. Beyond elite. Then added a TD on the 6th drive. 31 points on 6 drives, so 5.17, would be the best offense in the history of the sport. Sadly, we then went 5 straight drives without a point, to end at 2.82. Now, for some context, as we all sit here and feel like the world is collapsing beneath our feet, want to know what 2.82 would have ranked for the 2025 season? 21st in America. So, not a complete catastrophe, but certainly not the #1 offense in they country that we're shooting for

3. 7.0+ yards per play. We wound up at 5.56 yards per play, which isn't good. 5.56 would have been the 74th best number in the country last year for the full season. Very disappointing. We were well over this number in the first half, and we put up 300+ yards on 39 plays. But when you go 4 straight 3-and-outs and then a missed FG, it kinda craters this number.

4. 15 plays of 10+ yards, 6 plays of 20+ yards, 3 plays of 30+ yards. Another swing and a miss. We had 12 plays of 10+ yards, 4 plays of 20+ yards, and just 1 play of 30+ yards. Not nearly explosive enough.

5. Snapping the ball no more than 25 seconds apart. Another miss. We slowed down considerably in the 2nd half. I don't know the exact pace for the first half, but overall we're not going fast enough for my liking.

Defense 1. 17 points, max. They got 20. Miss.

2. Less than 4 yards a carry. We played the run exceptionally well. They really didn't even try to run the ball. This is the type of game script many of us expected, we were up 7-0, then 14-7, then 21-7, then 24-7. Not many teams are going to pound the rock with that type of deficit. So we did a great job in the run game. Their backs had 10 carries for 30 yards. Overall, as a team, when you factor in the QB runs and sacks, they ran the ball 16 times for 22 net yards. Elite performance, obviously.

3. Less than 55% completions. Lopez went 29/46, which is 63%. That's not good enough. That number ranks you about 80th best in the country for a season. Now, a little context. He threw the ball 46 times for 312 yards. That's only 6.2 a throw, which is a good number. For example, our defense last year allowed 6.3 an attempt. So we did allow him to complete more than I'd have liked, but the majority was short. And if we could tackle anyone, that number would've been even lower. So, didn't hit this one, but really not terrible.

4. 1.50 points per drive, or less. They scored 20 points on 11 drives, which is 1.82 points per drive. Not good enough for my goal, but not a bad number at all. 1.82 points per drive allowed ranked 28th last year. I said all off-season, if we can have a Top 10 offense and Top 30 defense, we're going to be a really good team. So, not quite good enough, IMO, but not a bad performance.

5. 5.0 yards per play or less. They got 5.39. So again, close, but not what I was expecting. 5.39 for the season ranks you as the 44th best defense in 2025. Actually, it'd be 1 spot ahead of the Ole Miss 2025 defense, and we know that wasn't good enough to win a championship. So, again, not horrendous, but not good enough.

One thing I did want to highlight that we talked about later in the thread was pressuring the QB. We pressured Lopez 44 times on about 50 dropbacks, which is insane. The highest number since Heatherman has been here. So we were able to generate a ton of pressure. But our coverage and especially tackling in the back end was not good enough. I hope the pressure numbers can continue while we hopefully get some DBs back healthy. We need Bryce back at Safety immediately and we need a rotation through the safety and nickel spots. You shouldn't have a true freshman playing every single snap like we did with Dunnigan. We gotta get healthy, ASAP.

thank you.. probably not planning to do something similar for CMU, but Clemson?