OrangeBowlMagic
CEO
- Joined
- Jul 13, 2014
- Messages
- 21,424
I know, just win. We got it.
But how you win, and what you do when you win, can give us some clues about the overall trajectory and ceiling of a team. I think we're going to win a national championship this year, and teams have scares all the time, but I don't expect Wake to even look like they belong on the same field with us, at least when we have the ball.
So what am I looking for from a statistical standpoint on Friday night that will make me encouraged we are truly on our way to being one of the very best teams in America?
When we have the football:
- 40+ points -- Only 2 teams averaged 40+ last year (4 if you round up and include Indiana and Utah at 39.5). Our team total is right at about 38. Wake is bad on defense. We need to drop 40 on them, period.
- 3.4+ points per drive -- Mario has talked several times about how the college game is seeing fewer possessions per game compared to prior years. The clock rules have a lot to do with that, but he's expanded on it talking about the need for explosives. This year, Miami has 7 plays of 40+ yards. Last year, in 16 games, we had 14. Explosive plays lead to points, and in games where possessions are limited, you need to score points every drive. 3.4 points per drive is easily a Top 5 mark in the country, I want it on Friday
- 7.0+ yards per play -- A favorite of Shannon Dawson's, in 2024 we led the country with 7.56 yards per play. If this is the best offense in America, and it might be, you go get 7.0+ per play against Wake Forest
- 15 plays of 10+ yards, 6 plays of 20+ yards, 3 plays of 30+ yards. -- Last year, Miami averaged 13.4 plays of 10+ yards, but only 4 plays of 20+ yards, and less than 2 plays of 30+ yards per game. Not good enough. We need to be more explosive.
- Snapping the ball no more than 25 seconds apart -- this one can be skewed if we get up late, but we are WAY too slow on offense. We need to increase the number of plays, and increase the pace. 25 seconds between plays ranked 39th fastest last year, so I'm not looking for some breakneck fast-paced operation, but Miami was 129th in pace last year. Even with Cam in 2024, we were 77th. We have to get much faster.
When Wake has the ball:
- 17 points, max -- Again, context. If we give them a pick six, or some turnover deep, or they have 13 and score a TD with 5 seconds left against walk-ons when its 55-13, then I'll allow it. But our defense cannot allow more than 17 "real" points.
- Less than 4 yards per carry -- Wake has ran it well in their 2 games, they are 18th in the country in yards per carry, at 5.26. They are getting 194 yards per game on the ground. We held Stanford to 3.39, and remember QB sacks are rushing attempts in college football. So we got 0 sacks, meaning that's a true rushing number, 3.39 YPC. It's not skewed because we sacked the quarterback. We need to hold Wake under 4, and make them throw the ball from behind the sticks.
- Less than 55% completions -- This is a big one, so far this year, Wake is completing only 61% of their passes, good for 78th in America. We know our corners are banged up, we also think we'll have a lead in this game and be playing from ahead. So, if they have to throw it 40 times, can we shut it down to the tune of 55% completions? If we do, and hold them under 4 yards a carry, we win by 30.
- 1.50 points per drive or less -- That number usually ranks you about 15th nationally. If we're going to have a national championship defense, we hold Wake Forest to a number that equates to 15th nationally
- 5.0 Yards per play or less -- Again, a number that's about 20th nationally, year over year. I'm not expecting the 85 bears here, but I will feel very good about our defense if we can hold them under 5 a play. Obviously way early in the season, but Wake is 15th right now in yards per play. They got 8.22 against Akron, and 6.04 last week against Purdue. No reason to think we can't be a yard better than Purdue was.
Overall, Wake looks better on offense than they are on defense. I don't think a team like that has much of a chance against us. You're not going to beat us being one-dimensional, and if you do, I think the team who plays us close is one with an elite defense that can at least hold us in check, and a decent offense that can keep a game close. I just don't see being challenged much by a team that ranks 45th in yards per play allowed, and those 2 games were against Akron and Purdue's offenses.
I'll come back on Saturday and check in on how well we hit these, but I want to see Miami take their crowd out very early, let's do exactly what we did against Stanford and score 2 TDs in the first quarter, and drop 40+ on these dudes. They have given up 80% (!!!!!) completions in their first 2 games. EIGHTY. Akron went 28/33 and Purdue went 32/42. Mensah should be having target practice out there.
But how you win, and what you do when you win, can give us some clues about the overall trajectory and ceiling of a team. I think we're going to win a national championship this year, and teams have scares all the time, but I don't expect Wake to even look like they belong on the same field with us, at least when we have the ball.
So what am I looking for from a statistical standpoint on Friday night that will make me encouraged we are truly on our way to being one of the very best teams in America?
When we have the football:
- 40+ points -- Only 2 teams averaged 40+ last year (4 if you round up and include Indiana and Utah at 39.5). Our team total is right at about 38. Wake is bad on defense. We need to drop 40 on them, period.
- 3.4+ points per drive -- Mario has talked several times about how the college game is seeing fewer possessions per game compared to prior years. The clock rules have a lot to do with that, but he's expanded on it talking about the need for explosives. This year, Miami has 7 plays of 40+ yards. Last year, in 16 games, we had 14. Explosive plays lead to points, and in games where possessions are limited, you need to score points every drive. 3.4 points per drive is easily a Top 5 mark in the country, I want it on Friday
- 7.0+ yards per play -- A favorite of Shannon Dawson's, in 2024 we led the country with 7.56 yards per play. If this is the best offense in America, and it might be, you go get 7.0+ per play against Wake Forest
- 15 plays of 10+ yards, 6 plays of 20+ yards, 3 plays of 30+ yards. -- Last year, Miami averaged 13.4 plays of 10+ yards, but only 4 plays of 20+ yards, and less than 2 plays of 30+ yards per game. Not good enough. We need to be more explosive.
- Snapping the ball no more than 25 seconds apart -- this one can be skewed if we get up late, but we are WAY too slow on offense. We need to increase the number of plays, and increase the pace. 25 seconds between plays ranked 39th fastest last year, so I'm not looking for some breakneck fast-paced operation, but Miami was 129th in pace last year. Even with Cam in 2024, we were 77th. We have to get much faster.
When Wake has the ball:
- 17 points, max -- Again, context. If we give them a pick six, or some turnover deep, or they have 13 and score a TD with 5 seconds left against walk-ons when its 55-13, then I'll allow it. But our defense cannot allow more than 17 "real" points.
- Less than 4 yards per carry -- Wake has ran it well in their 2 games, they are 18th in the country in yards per carry, at 5.26. They are getting 194 yards per game on the ground. We held Stanford to 3.39, and remember QB sacks are rushing attempts in college football. So we got 0 sacks, meaning that's a true rushing number, 3.39 YPC. It's not skewed because we sacked the quarterback. We need to hold Wake under 4, and make them throw the ball from behind the sticks.
- Less than 55% completions -- This is a big one, so far this year, Wake is completing only 61% of their passes, good for 78th in America. We know our corners are banged up, we also think we'll have a lead in this game and be playing from ahead. So, if they have to throw it 40 times, can we shut it down to the tune of 55% completions? If we do, and hold them under 4 yards a carry, we win by 30.
- 1.50 points per drive or less -- That number usually ranks you about 15th nationally. If we're going to have a national championship defense, we hold Wake Forest to a number that equates to 15th nationally
- 5.0 Yards per play or less -- Again, a number that's about 20th nationally, year over year. I'm not expecting the 85 bears here, but I will feel very good about our defense if we can hold them under 5 a play. Obviously way early in the season, but Wake is 15th right now in yards per play. They got 8.22 against Akron, and 6.04 last week against Purdue. No reason to think we can't be a yard better than Purdue was.
Overall, Wake looks better on offense than they are on defense. I don't think a team like that has much of a chance against us. You're not going to beat us being one-dimensional, and if you do, I think the team who plays us close is one with an elite defense that can at least hold us in check, and a decent offense that can keep a game close. I just don't see being challenged much by a team that ranks 45th in yards per play allowed, and those 2 games were against Akron and Purdue's offenses.
I'll come back on Saturday and check in on how well we hit these, but I want to see Miami take their crowd out very early, let's do exactly what we did against Stanford and score 2 TDs in the first quarter, and drop 40+ on these dudes. They have given up 80% (!!!!!) completions in their first 2 games. EIGHTY. Akron went 28/33 and Purdue went 32/42. Mensah should be having target practice out there.
