What did Willis do wrong

[Ethnicsands]

False. He is a wr. He cant control if the qb can get him the ball.

You think the NFL regularly drafts guys who quit on their teams?

 

[The Franchise]

It seems like some of you want people to lie about what they think of a player just because it's time for them to make that money.

If you were a teacher and a C- student with behavior problems came up to you asking for a Letter of Recommendation to go to college...are you going to write up a letter of recommendation? I mean, I'm not. I won't bad mouth the kid, but I'm going to politely tell the kid I can't do that.

The coach-scout-pro personnel relationship is built on trust that is as unbiased as possible. Do you think Craig Kuligowski is going to lie about his feelings about a former player of his to an area scout or personnel man when the basis on Kul's relationship with that scout is trust? I would certainly hope not.

People trash people all the time privately. They slick trash people too where it looks like they’re “concerned” but they’re actually just petty *****.

Tool comes off as a catty scumbag. It’s not like scouts asked him a math question with a definite answer. He could easily trash Willis and have it not bite him in the *** because it’s his opinion, and with Willis’s past struggles it’s an easily acceptable opinion even if tinged with Tool’s own scummy agenda.

Didn’t Tool do some shady crap with Mizzou after they cut him loose? He got away with that and wound up getting raises.

 

[252cane]

You think the NFL regularly drafts guys who quit on their teams?

We don't know what happened

 

[Ethnicsands]

We don't know what happened

You know he left the team. This isn’t as hard to process as some of you guys seem to want to make it out to be.

If you were drafting like your job and family depended on it (think: scout), and all you know was one guy has had personal issues or rumors thereof since HS and left his college team when adversity showed up, and another guy toughed it out and did what he needed to do, which kid would you recommend your team take?

Good news for Thomas is if he balls out this year and tests well, he has a chance to be drafted high. But he’s listed at 5’10, and guys rarely measure taller than listed. He’s not a physical guy. He’s going to have to prove that his burst and separation are truly unique and his personal issues are behind him. If he does, he’ll do fine. If not, he’ll fall in the draft and we can discuss this all again next year.

 

[252cane]

You know he left the team. This isn’t as hard to process as some of you guys seem to want to make it out to be.

If you were drafting like your job and family depended on it (think: scout), and all you know was one guy has had personal issues or rumors thereof since HS and left his college team when adversity showed up, and another guy toughed it out and did what he needed to do, which kid would you recommend your team take?

Good news for Thomas is if he balls out this year and tests well, he has a chance to be drafted high. But he’s listed at 5’10, and guys rarely measure taller than listed. He’s not a physical guy. He’s going to have to prove that his burst and separation are truly unique and his personal issues are behind him. If he does, he’ll do fine. If not, he’ll fall in the draft and we can discuss this all again next year.

Mecole hardman was just drafted 2nd round and he is the same size as jeff. Dorsett went 1st round. Brandon cooks went 1st round. Tyreke hill was beating women *** and still got drafted.

 

[hoops156]

Mecole hardman was just drafted 2nd round. Tyreke hill was beating women *** and still got drafted.

is JT faster or more elite than hill? also, chiefs are paying the price on the hill pick now considering his current issues.

 

[Ethnicsands]

Mecole hardman was just drafted 2nd round. Tyreke hill was beating women *** and still got drafted.

I guess that tells you all you need to know. If you’re still confused, I suggest you try to map out what you know, what you think you know, what inferences could be sustained based on that, and then come back and tell us whether it’s all just a confusing conspiracy paradox or whether you’ve come to an alternative realization.

 

[252cane]

is JT faster or more elite than hill? also, chiefs are paying the price on the hill pick now considering his current issues.

He doesn't have to be more elite or faster than hill. If jeff runs a 4.3 which is what being said he runs then he will be drafted.

 

[252cane]

I guess that tells you all you need to know. If you’re still confused, I suggest you try to map out what you know, what you think you know, what inferences could be sustained based on that, and then come back and tell us whether it’s all just a confusing conspiracy paradox or whether you’ve come to an alternative realization.

Or maybe you should just shut your *** up and stop acting like you know what these teams will do. Hill was beating women asses and still got drafted. Other than that issue jeff hasn't been suspended or in any trouble.

 

[Ethnicsands]

Mecole hardman was just drafted 2nd round and he is the same size as jeff. Dorsett went 1st round. Brandon cooks went 1st round. Tyreke hill was beating women *** and still got drafted.

Ty Hill ran a 20.14 200 and a 10.19 100 in Hs. He also ran a 4.25 40 at a Nike camp. Hardman ran a 4.33 40 at the combine. He was also 2x all SEC. If Thomas does stuff like that, the NFL will surely pay close attention.

 

[BoxingRobes]

Imo you guys are arguing about nothing at this point. The comment that led to this exchange was D$ saying our guys do better on second contracts than first. Let’s acknowledge we dont have any actual data here to compare our guys to anything on average, let alone adjusting for position, round and outliers. But even if it were true, what would it mean? The entire premise of second contracts in a league with a sub-3.5 year average career is time sequence dependent. A couple guys who do better than expected _and_ player longer than expected will materially distort your averages on this issue. Campbell was drafted second round - not bad at all - but his career has been both first round and long for a DL. But add in Frank Gore, Chris Myers, Jimmy Graham, T. Gooden, L. Miller, Linder.... None of that tells you the nfl is systematically misevaluating UM guys.

Separately, we do know that our last 17 years has been marked by awful coaching and that does mean our guys arent getting overvalued because of hype. Hopefully that changes because it would require our guys to get hyped based on performance for that to change, and that would be an improvement over the Clappy, Radio, Gluten and Pricht eras.

I think its Awsi Dooger that constantly points out to stop looking at outliers and I think that needs to be restated in this thread.

I'd love to see a real statistical analysis that shows or proves Miami players exceed draft slot...that'd be my hypothesis, too...but you still need to evaluate players on their own merits. If you flunk the process, you come with more risk than someone who aced it and then its up to NFL teams to judge that risk v. financial commitment.

Very easy to toss out Calais Campbell or Olivier Vernon...but how many Baraka Atkins, Dwayne Hendricks, Marcus Robinsons, Tyriq McCords, Eric Moncurs, Adewale Ojomos, Micanor Regis, Marcus Forstons, Calvin Huertelous (you get the point) do teams churn through just blindly taking Miami players because some outliers exceed draft slot...I'm aware these players all had varying degrees of talent in comparison to the above, but the point stands. I'd go through plenty of them to get the next Calais Campbell, but I am less enthusiastic risking draft and financial capital simply looking for the next Anthony Chickillo.

 

[Ethnicsands]

Or maybe you should just shut your *** up and stop acting like you know what these teams will do. Hill was beating women asses and still got drafted. Other than that issue jeff hasn't been suspended or in any trouble.

I have made no prediction regarding Thomas, so you can keep your petty snit insults to yourself. I pointed out that at his size, and given questions around his character that aren’t new and aren’t any secret, and considering he has not yet proven he can run a 4.3 40, that he’ll have to perform well this year and test well to get drafted high. If that’s hard for you to process, sorry. It’s not disrespectful to the kid, either. I hope he does play himself into a high pick.

 

[Ethnicsands]

I think its Awsi Dooger that constantly points out to stop looking at outliers and I think that needs to be restated in this thread.

I'd love to see a real statistical analysis that shows or proves Miami players exceed draft slot...that'd be my hypothesis, too...but you still need to evaluate players on their own merits. If you flunk the process, you come with more risk than someone who aced it and then its up to NFL teams to judge that risk v. financial commitment.

Very easy to toss out Calais Campbell or Olivier Vernon...but how many Baraka Atkins, Dwayne Hendricks, Marcus Robinsons, Tyriq McCords, Eric Moncurs, Adewale Ojomos, Micanor Regis, Marcus Forstons, Calvin Huertelous (you get the point) do teams churn through just blindly taking Miami players because some outliers exceed draft slot...I'm aware these players all had varying degrees of talent in comparison to the above, but the point stands. I'd go through plenty of them to get the next Calais Campbell, but I am less enthusiastic risking draft and financial capital simply looking for the next Anthony Chickillo.

Our fanbase (and all others) are great provers of a range of cognitive and heuristic biases. You point out a great example of this above. Confirmation bias, availability heuristic, halo effect, attentional bias, anchoring, framing, misinformation effect and optimism bias are all types of thinking errors repeatedly manifest on these boards.

 

[BoxingRobes]

We don't know what happened

"We don't know what happened" to Gerald Willis either...but whatever it is, just know, the NFL putting that red flag next to your placard and some teams aren't about to fvck with you when their short term and long term job security rely on you not being your knucklehead self once you get paid.

I can't predict the future with Thomas...good or bad...but, what I do know...is if he does flunk the process, people on here are going to perform mental acrobatics working themselves into a shoot trying to understand why he "dropped" like an an anchor on draft weekend when really, the answer isn't that hard to understand.

I saw DeDe Westbrook run a fast 40, but otherwise test like **** go in the fourth round after having character issues as well...and this dude was in New York for the Heisman ceremony, brother. As good a collegiate season as you'll find. Where does a similar style of WR in Thomas go if he's not that good?

 

[252cane]

Ty Hill ran a 20.14 200 and a 10.19 100 in Hs. He also ran a 4.25 40 at a Nike camp. Hardman ran a 4.33 40 at the combine. He was also 2x all SEC. If Thomas does stuff like that, the NFL will surely pay close attention.

Jeff thomas and hardman numbers was basically the same last year. Both had 35 catches. Hardman had 543 yards and jeff had 563. Hardman had 7tds and jeff 3. Hardman had a punt return for a td and so did jeff. And jeff won fastest man at the opening beating chris henderson who ran a 4.35. And he was clocked at a 4.38 at a camp in high school.

 

[Andrew]

It has nothing to do with bias. A mistake is a mistake. What would you call the Dolphins picking Phillip Merling over Calais Campbell?

A statistical outlier.

I think you are missing the questions being asked in this thread.

1) Is their a bias by NFL scouts against UM players causing them to be drafted lower?
2) Does UM do such a bad job at development that our players tend to perform better than their draft status? (aka Coaching)
3) How effective is the NFL at identifying players --obviously they are not perfect but what is it? 90%, 99%, 99.99%, 99.999%?

 

[Ethnicsands]

Jeff thomas and hardman numbers was basically the same last year. Both had 35 catches. Hardman had 543 yards and jeff had 563. Hardman had 7tds and jeff 3. Hardman had a punt return for a td and so did jeff.

And hardman played the whole season, didnt quit, tested well and got drafted high. If Thomas does those things next season, maybe he’ll get drafted high also. But don’t kid yourself - the nfl will look into the character issues - they do for everyone they consider drafting.

We dont even know what type of 40 Thomas will turn in at the combine. We hear he ran a 4.37 at UM, no info on how that was actually timed. Hardman ran a combine 4.33. If Thomas matches that it will help him.

 

[hoops156]

"We don't know what happened" to Gerald Willis either...but whatever it is, just know, the NFL putting that red flag next to your placard and some teams aren't about to fvck with you when their short term and long term job security rely on you not being your knucklehead self once you get paid.

I can't predict the future with Thomas...good or bad...but, what I do know...is if he does flunk the process, people on here are going to perform mental acrobatics working themselves into a shoot trying to understand why he "dropped" like an an anchor on draft weekend when really, the answer isn't that hard to understand.

I saw DeDe Westbrook run a fast 40, but otherwise test like **** go in the fourth round after having character issues as well...and this dude was in New York for the Heisman ceremony, brother. As good a collegiate season as you'll find. Where does a similar style of WR in Thomas go if he's not that good?

whatever happened with Willis, the NFL surely does know otherwise i dont think he drops as much as he did. hopefully, he sticks in the league and dominates tho

 

[BoxingRobes]

Our fanbase (and all others) are great provers of a range of cognitive and heuristic biases. You point out a great example of this above. Confirmation bias, availability heuristic, halo effect, attentional bias, anchoring, framing, misinformation effect and optimism bias are all types of thinking errors repeatedly manifest on these boards.

I don't see this as a difficult concept to understand. Joe Jackson is a good football player. But what is difficult to understand about him performing so poorly during the process that resulted in him going so late in the draft? Joe Jackson is good, but he's not Calais good at the same time in their careers either. Gerald Willis is a fine football player. But at what point do we not understand that his baggage is significant, his testing was poor, and his process was bad.

That doesn't mean we think these dudes are bums or won't be successful, but we just understand why the NFL evaluated these guys the way they did. Willis is a very risky investment. I hope he shows out and makes a lot of money, but the NFL is telling him to show'em before they pay'em or commit to him in any way. I understand why and as a fan I am hopeful he shows out. The same with Joe Jackson. He's not first round talented even with an excellent process, but he bombed some obvious aspects of his process. Doesn't mean he is going to be a bum, but he's very risky without the upside to justify a high pick, I guess.

 

[252cane]

And hardman played the whole season, didnt quit, tested well and got drafted high. If Thomas does those things next season, maybe he’ll get drafted high also. But don’t kid yourself - the nfl will look into the character issues - they do for everyone they consider drafting.

We dont even know what type of 40 Thomas will turn in at the combine. We hear he ran a 4.37 at UM, no info on how that was actually timed. Hardman ran a combine 4.33. If Thomas matches that it will help him.

Thomas ran a 4.38 at a camp in high school and won the fastest man comp at the opening and one of the guys he beat was chris henderson who ran a 4.35.